TM2012: Scummies 2011.5 - Let the credits roll!

[BBmolla]

Town.

[BBmolla]

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about a possible MoI-Scum tricking the shit out of me.

[T-Bone]

Town.

[BBmolla]

Why would scum give molla-town a fakescummy?

Obvious answer is to stop whatever the hell the unexplained scummy did.

Which points to you scum.



I hate this game.

[DeasVail]

I was starting to think MoI-scum was possible, except I still thought he was most likely town.

[DeasVail]

Which points to you scum.

The problem is that I'm not, so how do I explain it?

[DeasVail]

BBmolla & T-Bone

Nothing all that wrong with this pairing. Nothing really makes it more or less likely for me, but I think I may end up having a townread on Molla (will have to go through individual ISOs more closely to confirm this).

[DeasVail]

BBmolla & Zar

26 and 32 are perhaps

too

revealing if they are indeed scum together. I don't know, but I think I'd be uncomfortable doing that to a buddy.

189 supports the pairing. Despite this, Zar doesn't really say much about molla over the next couple of days, which slightly supports the pairing.

Molla's flip-flopping between Zar and theam probably doesn't support the pairing and makes it less likely.

1039 supports the pairing.

There are a few things that make the Molla/Zar more likely, but I think neither of them being Reck or T-Bone and the things that I feel make their pairing less likely are enough for me to say that I'll probably end up considering this pair unlikely

[DeasVail]

T-Bone & Zar

The first interesting thing is T-Bone's agreement with Zar in 64 and following vote on Gaoth. I actually think that the situation at the time makes them an unlikely scum pair because they make up the first votes on the Gaoth wagon (based on one post), with three votes on Ajax at the time. I don't see T-Bone-scum doing this with Zar as his partner.

Another reason why I'm pretty sure this partnership is unlikely: Day 2 Zar makes posts on quite a few players, but T-Bone is not one of them. I think one of the most pressing things on his mind as scum would be what he plans to think of his partner. It is less likely that he would make posts on people like he did without including his partner in there. I don't think this is the strongest of points, but it does contribute to my belief.

Zar: "Also, for yet unexplained reasons, everybody and their cat has expressed suspicion about me at some point or another in this game, except for T-Bone."

Nothing much there that seems relevant to me. So again, an unlikely pair in my opinion, although I may revisit some earlier ones at some point (e.g. Reck/Zar).

Also, I'll probably decide what I think of the T-Bone/Reck possibility tomorrow.

BBmolla:

Thoughts on above please.

[Zar]

I'm going to be doing some re-reading starting tomorrow night. Today and Tomorrow I have to handle some expense accounts that need to be delivered ASAP.

[Zar]

Question to all: at the end of D4, what was your read on MoI?

I had a Town read on MoI.

[Zar]

@Minaday V/LA Today/Tomorrow

[DeasVail]

Reck & T-Bone

They were in the same judging group Day 1, and it was the judging group that gave out Best Newbie, which appeared to be given to Fonz, who died night 1.

These things are what make the hypothetical Reck/T-Bone pairing problematic for me, because first there must be the assumption that it was possible to have 3 scum in the same judging group, then that they would make a kill like Fonz, which points to scum in their group. Could they have relied on town assuming it was due to secret scum powers?

Then again, having three scum in the same judging group doesn't seem terrible at all from a balance point of view, as they can't give the scummy to scum, and can't try to vote for a bad scummy without looking incredibly suspicious.

With Quil and MoI voting Hito, it would mean that all three (or at least two) scum voted for Fonz. How comfortable would it have been for them to do this? However, looking back, it seems there was no real discussion about who received the award, which then leads me to Reckoner's somewhat violent reaction in 376. If there had been no consensus on who the scummy had gone to, I find this reaction a bit unbelievable and I actually think it works well with the scenario of all three scum voting Fonz.

Additionally, since I expressed my suspicion of a T-Bone/Reck pair, neither of them have defended against this idea in any way. This is ESPECIALLY interesting with T-Bone because he actually mentions that they were in the same judging group (1086), but doesn't do anything with it, doesn't say they can't be scum together because of it. My most likely explanation for this is that he's following common "wait for town to say it" scum policy, not wanting to explicitly defend against it in fear of looking guilty-> which points most to T-Bone scum, but also supports the pairing in my opinion.

Other option is that he as scum wants to keep T-Bone/Reck as an option considered by town, but I don't get why he mentions the group thing in the first place if this is the case.

Other stuff:

They both say they can't read the other, and otherwise don't have much to do with each other, which makes me worried that it's a little

too

obvious. T-Bone's lack of strong read on Reck also doesn't correlate with his lack of attention to my case. If you're town and as unsure about someone as T-Bone is with Reck, you try to get a better read on them, pay attention to cases, work out whether you agree or disagree, ask questions etc.

"not that i disagree about T-Bone"- Reck feels the need to add this in 876.

I'd really like thoughts on the possibility of a T-Bone/Reck pair, and after individual ISOs, I think I will most likely push a T-Bone lynch.

[xRECKONERx]

Well, that seals the fucking deal.

Fate was SCREAMING in the fucking QuickTopic ever since DeasVail started going through these pairings a few days ago. "That's absolute tryhard fluff bullshit," he said. "This is 100% faked content," he said. "Let her finish," I said.

Then the other night, I'm looking through the thread. Something pissed me off about the MagnaofIllusion kill, but night kill analysis is obviously stupid and should never be trusted. But here's the thing... MoI was pretty much OBVIOUS TOWN the entire game. Hardly anyone ever suspected him outside of theamateur, and even those that thought he might be wishy washy never stated as much in the thread. He was going to be damn near unlynchable, yet he survived NIGHT AFTER NIGHT over people like The Fonz, Quilford, and hitogoroshi. Why, NOW, of all nights, would he be killed off?

So I started to read and see if I couldn't track down his views... and look what I found:

Honestly we have 3 lynches left. I think TheAm followed by both Zar / Deas nets Town a win at this juncture.

DV/Zar speedlynches were going to be triumphantly lead by MoI starting Day 5... LYLO. Where scum are so close to victory, ALL THEY NEED is one fucking lynch to wrap this thing up. MoI wasn't going to get lynched, and he certainly wasn't going to cave on a lynch on me. Molla didn't seem apt to go for a lynch on me, either, but the difference there is that Molla is also a potential target if lynches need to be rerouted.

So my hypothesis is this:

DV is scum who had to make endgame maneuvers. DV skirts around the "potential scumteam pairings" for a few days and uses GREAT LEAPS IN LOGIC to outright discount every possible team except for the one that he already had his heart set on... me & T-Bone. Magna HAD to be removed from the equation because he was unlynchable and unmovable in his conviction of DV/Zar. And I'm actually just now noticing, looking back, that Fonz also expressed suspicion of DV and only jumped to Ajax at the very end of the day. And... yep, Quilford, too, was beginning to wobble on his read of DV at the end of the day in which he was killed (he also had Zar as his top suspect, for what it's worth).

TLDR

-- DV IS SCUM WHO HAS KILLED OFF THE MINOR DISSIDENTS AND THEN OFFED MOI BECAUSE HE WAS GOING TO STEAMROLL THROUGH HIMSELF & ZAR

in b4 DV tries to dismiss all of this as OMGUS

[xRECKONERx]

In what universe as scum do I kill off the recipient of 1A's scummie, then turn around and systematically kill off the other members of that group until WELP POE SAYS RECK?

In what universe as scum do I kill off MoI? DOUBLY so with MoI focusing HARD on Zar/DV?

In what universe as scum do I passively sit by while a buddy gets lynched D1 without either hard bussing or hard defending?

In what universe as scum do I systematically kill off every person in the game who had a strong town read on me?

In what universe as scum do I plan out from D1 to kill the people that would guarantee my survival just so I can pull a NK WIFOM gambit in LYLO?



It's because I'm not scum and this isn't NK WIFOM, kids, this is fucking common sense. This is DV-scum killing off his opposition while building up to a "well gee I guess it is Reck" moment in LYLO where he can go for the throat and the win.

[DeasVail]

You make good points, but there are terrible ones too. Why would you kill MoI? Seriously?

For the one after that, you've already said that you had RL stuff or lack of motivation that prevented you from doing either.

I don't remember them having strong townreads on you, but I guess I'll look into it, although considering that the only ones without a strong townread on you have probably been the most lynchable people, I'm not sure that it'll change my mind.

And the next one is a huge leap.

Ok...

[xRECKONERx]

Why would you kill MoI? Seriously?

yes

[Zar]

Eh Reck, the scum-kills have all been scummie holders, except for MoI. Pretty safe to guess all of the kills were tailored to eliminate known threats to them.

MoI's kill is interesting in the sense not only he was pretty town-looking, but he was not a Scummie holder and a member of the group that awarded the only Scummie that hasn't been revealed.

What are your thoughts about this?

[DeasVail]

Hmm, Zar, current thoughts on me. Go.

[DeasVail]

By the way Reck, there are only a couple of scumteams that I'm disounting. At the moment, I feel the others are less likely than you/T-Bone but I'm still considering.

And if you could tell me where I've gone wrong in my speculation about other teams, that would be good too.

[Zar]

I do too, obviously.

Zar makes a good point in Post 699.

unvote

vote: BBmolla

Why not T-Bone or Zar?

DeasVail, you suspected me during D3, but your read on T-Bone was pretty middle of the road. Why did you ask KK why he wasn't considering voting T-Bone over Molla?

[DeasVail]

I don't know. My next post indicates that I may have suspected T-Bone at some point, or maybe I thought KK suspected T-Bone? I don't remember.

[xRECKONERx]

Why would you kill MoI? Seriously?

yes

not doing dick until you respond to this seriously

[xRECKONERx]

Eh Reck, the scum-kills have all been scummie holders, except for MoI. Pretty safe to guess all of the kills were tailored to eliminate known threats to them.

so your theory is that the scum have a way to know who receives each scummie

right

, because that's totally balanced with this setup

[DeasVail]

Reck, what's your theory?

In response, MoI was the least lynchable, and despite his bad reads, killing him wouldn't be such a bad idea considering that scum could perhaps use his reads, and also the possibility of him changing his mind.

Also, the method of killing people who suspect me is not really how I work as scum. Instead I put a lot of effort into changing people's minds.