TM2012: Scummies 2011.5 - Let the credits roll!

[T-Bone]

I was viewing this thread from my phone all afternoon. If you we're going to be quick lynched, it could have happened already. If I happened to have caught one of the other three joining in on the vote I would have unvoted. I was checking the thread as often as I could and had another tab open with the unvote already typed out. That didn't happen.

[DeasVail]

In the TM Closed Normal, it was a while before a quickhammer happened.

[DeasVail]

T-Bone, my offer's still there. If you unvote, I will.

And to everyone else, here's a real bargain:

Wait for it...

If you vote for T-Bone, I promise not to vote for you for the rest of the game!

How does that sound? Too good to be true you might say? Well it most certainly is true!

[T-Bone]

What does that accomplish exactly?

[DeasVail]

What does that accomplish exactly?

Well can you offer the same deal?

I didn't think so!

[Lost Butterfly]

Day 5, Votecount 3

DeasVail (1) - T-Bone
T-Bone (1) - DeasVail

Not Voting (3) - xRECKONERx, Zar, BBmolla

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch or no-lynch.

Deadline:

Wednesday, July 4th at 15:30 EST

Countdown:

(expired on 2012-07-04 15:30:53)

[T-Bone]

Enough of the bullshit. I take it by your posting you want a quick lynch on you so we can go to 3p LyLo and give your buddy a better chance.

So I'm going back to deciding who that is. DV votes are acceptable at this point. It's time to rid of him.

Now what we know from the judging groups. Is that DV was in a judging group with BB and Reck, but not in one with me in Zar. Looking at this I see one of two relationships. DV/Zar because they were never in a group together. From what I recall (and a quick peak on his ISO) Zar never really had a strong read on Deas. Deas did have some suspicion on Zar Day 3, but at that point we were super lynching KK, so I can't exactly call it a strong push. He abandoned that read since then. Here's a case of DV not really following through with his reads. He may have wanted Zar's lynch Day 3, but he knew it wasn't going to happen and completely abandoned the thought Day 4 in favor of BB and Reck. (which he's now abandoned for me. Go figure)

Zar can you take me through your progression on your DV read through out the game? Have you ever had strong feelings for him one way or another?

Or, DV and and BB. This is an interesting pairing for me, and works because of how the nightkills fell. Night 1 Fonz was killed, and I'm content to assuming Ajax had a hand in that. If Ajax had a way to tamper with the groups I can't imagine it being more than one shot. Quilford dies night 2. BB is in that group (and was the deciding vote if I recall) and he knew where the scummy went. Hito dies night 3, and since Deas and BB were both in the group, they knew who got that scummie. BB got the secret scummie, and since DV had no idea what it did he had to give it to BB. Reck has received TWO scummies over the course of the game, and he's still alive. Neither BB or DV were in the groups that awarded Reck the scummies. Based on how everything has happened, a DV/BB player explains a lot. Now the fake scummie thing is weird. But if Professor Mafia did indeed detect fake scummies, then scum would have to be able to give it out, which means they have knowledge of it which means BB and DV knows of it which means in light of what Professor Mafia did, BB could fake claim getting the fake scummie. What bothers me about this pairing, why not have DV claim to have received the fake scummie and BB go "yep I detected it"? A lot of the judging process points to DV/BB scum pairing. DV coming out with BB's ISO first, writing off all of BB+XXX scumteams, really really points to BB being his partner. Of course the same type of posting also points to DV trying to paint BB being his partner...so we mislynch BB in LyLo and scum still wins. And that's what bothers me the most. Scum tend to try and distance themselves, and DV is buddying to BB the most. BB has also written DV off for "recent play" but never elaborated. DV even asks him to, almost like he's coaching him.

Then there is DV and Reck...and it's only likely in one scenario. They conspired to give BB the secret scummie and immediately give him the fake scummie, making him effectively useless. DV did suspect Reck Day 4 and at the beginning of the day but failed to pull the trigger since I came out calling him scum. DV all but abandoned his suspicion on Reck. Do you hope if you lay off of him he'll vote for me?

Speaking of DV, you never did anyone else's but BB's ISO.

Everyone help me out here. IF DV is scum, who is his partner? BB, Reck, Zar, or Bone? Even if you believe DV to be town (or are his buddy ), humor me.

[DeasVail]

Hmm, my scumread's a bit stronger on T-Bone now. This situation has mad me less eager to go through reads because if T-Bone's town then I/we/whatever have lost and if he's scum, well that can be sorted out later. I'm not even going to be here for later, and I'm still not motivated to work out who Bone's partner would be. Looks a bit like trying to look as town as possible, but I'm still worried about a quickhammer.

Other things:

First, I don't understand why he's getting from my posts that I plan to be lynched and leave it to my partner. Both molla and zar seem somewhat likely to vote T-Bone instead of me if they're town or my partner.

Second, I don't get where his statement that I've abandoned my suspicion of Reck comes from. I don't think I've even been any more vocal about him than I have about Reck, but maybe this is wrong.

What's the second scummy that Reck received?

I would also love to help you out, but whenever I try to think of who my partner is, I just get overwhelmed and confused!

[DeasVail]

Oh and you have me for ~6 more hours before I ask for Slandaar to replace me.

[DeasVail]

So if you have anything that you'd like me to look at/say/do, tell me soon!

[T-Bone]

I'd like you to finish those ISOs you promised.

[DeasVail]

I'd like you to finish those ISOs you promised.

Hmm, why?

[T-Bone]

Because I want to know what your thoughts on them are. Obviously I want to see from your reads which player is likely to be your partner.

[DeasVail]

Because I want to know what your thoughts on them are. Obviously I want to see from your reads which player is likely to be your partner.

So you think I'll do it, only so that you can use it for something that is of no interest to me whatsoever, while we are voting for each other in LYLO?

[DeasVail]

Ok, well bye everyone.

Thanks for modding LB! From what I know of the set-up, I think it's really cool And thanks to the players too for also making it an enjoyable game.

I may check over the next hour, but I may be too busy too.

[Lost Butterfly]

Slandaar replaces Deasvail as of now?

[Slandaar]

As of now!

I have read the game as it went along etc, I know whats what pretty much. Posting some stuff in a bit

[Slandaar]

Staying on the groups real quick...if my townreads are right (about Zar and MoI) that clears 2A in my eyes of scum.

If we run under the assumption that there was only 1 scum in each group,

that clears Reck, making Deas scum, and then his partner being BB or Theam. Either partnership I could see. I need to look back as to how Ajax would fit into an Ajax/Deas/BB or Theam group.

This post was from yesterday (day 4)

Lets use that assumption. Well, guess what?

BB cannot be scum with DV using this logic because they/we were in the same judging group It shows how much thought he has put into his 'scumhunting'

The assumption makes no sense, but we can think Tbone thinks its legit...

Group 1A –

Reck

,

Quilford, T-Bone

,

Captain Ajax

,

MoI

Group 1B –

Hito, Magua,

Zar

,

Theam, Fonz

Group 1C –

KK

,

BBMolla, DeaVail

Group 2A -

MoI, Quilford, T-Bone

,

Zar

Group 2B -

TheAm, hito,

BBmolla

,

Magua

Group 2C –

KK

,

Reck, Deas

Colours himself green; fine whatever...

That's where we're at. 1A Ajax was scum,

so each of 1B and 1C could contain scum.

On Day 2 however, 1 group had to be all town, so that's a little more difficult to discern. The only people to move around between Day 1 and 2 are Reck, Zar, and BB. Reck moved down to C, BB up to B, and Zar to A. I think it's likely that only one scum moved around, meaning the other stayed put.

The only one who didn't move around who's still alive is Deas.

OK, so that means Zar is scum then. If we are still using this ridiculous assumption Zar should be near confscum to Tbone. Why is Tbone still calling DV (insinuating) scum?

Tbone didnt move too - note how he forgets this

It shows how absolutely ridiculous his assumptions are. Absolutely baseless but he waffles on using them to ALWAYS come to the conclusion DV is scum even when he shouldn't.

Why is he saying 1 scum moved 1 stayed? it makes no sense...

I think Deas is a high likely candidate to be scum. On Day 2 Reck and KK essentially gave him deciding power over the group, and Deas claims to have not voted. They claim KK voted me and Reck claims to have voted BB, and BB got the scummy. Now if Deas didn't vote, KK could have lied and voted for BB too, or Deas really did vote for BB and lied about it. One obvious reason to lie about it would be because he and BB are scum. That's one angle. Another angle is that Deas never was in a group with Zar, so they could also be a scum pair. I find Reck/Deas to be the least likeliest pairing, because there is no reason for Deas to lie about voting or intentionally not vote if he and Reck are buddies.

OK, so whats the scum motivation behind not voting?

Exactly there is none here, it was randomed between two people. Lets say DV was scum why would he not vote who he wanted the scummy to go to he would be better off knowing surely? Flip side of the coin, why would he vote and lie? its hardly incriminating to say 'I voted Molla' like it makes no sense to lie as scum there. There are no benefits to it.

Its a null point.

I make the above statement assuming the Mods didn't flip a coin between me and BB, because than it makes that discussion moot.

He even admits his assumptions are ridiculous, so at this point we have had a huge wall of waffleyness and then he adds a little escape clause.

All bets of course are off of course if multiple scum were in a single group, but we have no evidence to suggest it one way or another, so I'm going to run under the assumption that scum were split up. If Theam was lynched Day 1 instead of Ajax, I wonder if Reck, Zar, and BB would still be the ones to exchange groups or if something else would have happened.

Again with the clauses

he clearly knows his assumptions are bad/wrong

He continually uses them to call DV scum though, his plan was to get DV lynched today. He started from yesterday and moved into today with that goal. If he were town, he should have analysed the judging groups fairly and under his assumptions come to the conclusion Zar is the most likely scum. But he didn't he just stuck to the plan and made and even worse assumption as a base to call DV scum

For the record, since it's LyLo, we in Group 2A agreed to give Reck our scummy. We also discussed giving it to Hito but he didn't flip with the one we gave out so I assume Reck did indeed get it. It wasn't the double-vote one either.

Reck what is this btw?

[Slandaar]

OK Town

From here on I am assuming Tbone is scum as it doesn't matter if hes not at this point. Now...

Judging QTs

Group 1A – Reck,

Quilford

, T-Bone,

Captain Ajax

,

MoI

: Gave out Best Newbie (N1 only Cop) to Fonz
Group 1B –

Hito

,

Magua

, Zar,

Theam,

Fonz

: Gave out DOUBLE VOTE Scummie (can’t find proper name ATM) to Reck
Group 1C –

KK

, BBMolla, DeaVail: Gave out Best Replacement (Bodyguard) to Hito

Group 2A -

MoI

,

Quilford

, T-Bone and Zar.
Group 2B -

TheAm

,

hito

, BBmolla, and

Magua

: Gave out Best IC (Jailkeeper) to Quilford
Group 2C –

KK

, Reck, Deas : Gave out Professor Mafia (searcher for ‘Fake Scummies, unknown at time of release) to BBMolla

Scum killed Fonz n1; they knew he had the Best Newbie Award; There is no way that Captain Ajax alone in group 1A had the power to get that scummy to fonz. Therefore at least one of Tbone and Reck is scum from this alone.

Why Fonz? Because it was pretty clear the scums best plan was to get Magua/KK lynched. They couldn't give it to Magna/Quil, Hito? Maybe, but he was very useful to them as he was in the get magua/kk camp. Leaving theam? seems bad hes mislynch fodder. DV? seems bad he was mislynch fodder (proof to come) BB? Well hes scum so that would be quite bad. Reck? Yes maybe that would be good, but if Reck is after Zar, then np right? Zar? Mislynch fodder see:Reck which leaves Tbone who is scum.

The votes were given in advance of any lynching etc, Fonz was only being named as scum after the judging had been done; this is important because he was not in the get magua/kk camp and was at that point looking unlynchable. Once Fonz has got the scummy; They killed him as it was not worth the risk leaving him alive.

Now we know why Fonz died N1 onto N2.

The scum knew Quil had the Best IC award; How?
Well they did a magic trick where they can choose who gets the scummy? Nope; BB was just like 'well you guys we should probably kill Quilford he got a good scummy'

From there; whats the best scummy left? YEP ITS THE BODYGUARD kill him. Finally get Moi as hes obvtown and never being lynched.

Now we have figured out why scum killed who they did and who the scum are.

Also; Reck is town because of Tbones jump onto me he saw the finish line and went for it too soon, Tbone isnt voting DV/Me there without an incling town are voting and if Reck is scum there would be no inclination town are voting DV/Reck

Now, If Tbone is town, which isn't impossible the Reck stuff is wrong of course, but that doesn't actually matter at this point.

You could argue that they lucked the Quilford kill he was obvtown afterall; BUT, their tactics are pretty clear, to kill people with scummies, this is a sensible assumption to make, BB is scum near enough confirmed.

It all makes sense, the most stretchy/debateable is the Fonz kill but even then; we can see they knew he had the scummy and that they had to have done something to give it to him.

Note Tbone;

Guys in 1A, I apologize. When I had that issue last week, I missed the opportunity to vote and did not submit one in time. I did submit a late vote on Zar though. I'll PM the Mod and see if they were lenient enough to count it or not.

He gave it to Zar... Really? He thought Zar was the best bet for town outside the judging group?

No one in my QT kept up with this game in my absence, so I'm flying blind. Here we go anyway.

Also this is a TM scumtell.

Notes
There is no way scum have enough power for Ajax alone to get the scummy to fonz because the town hasn't had a lot of power and then for them to basically dictate where one goes for them to nk? nope too powerful. Tbone is scum due to this. One of Reck/Tbone has to be scum. This should also conftown my slot based on recent postings.
I POE'd BB scum here, it just fits with the Quilford kill too perfectly; I did think Reck was scum previously, but he can't be with Tbone based on how Tbones jumped on the scent since Reck made his case, so its Tbone/BB or Tbone/Zar
Its Tbone/BB because BB makes a ton of sense (see above) and it explains why Tbone wouldnt use his analysis to say Zar is scum (He did not want to annoy Zar and let Zar see his analysis was bad - see previous post)

[Slandaar]

I was going to respond to this wifom junk then I put my thinking cap on...

In what universe as scum do I kill off the recipient of 1A's scummie, then turn around and systematically kill off the other members of that group until WELP POE SAYS RECK?

See Tbone is alive still, POE says its you or him, he coloured himself green.

Want to lynch him now?

[Slandaar]

Also why I thought Reck is scum;
Reck says 'Zar scummiest guy in game'

Day 2
VCA
'Well its magua + KK!'

Its so scumtastic, really, it absolutely looks like VCA ruling your vote to get some easy mislynches in to return to a Zar lynch later. You then came full circle to 'well guess theam is scum' the assumption he was a counterwagon was bad in the first place. (I am pretty sure DV said this, our qt was talking about it)

The scummyness was actually unreal, there are clearly huge benefits as scum to doing this. No idea how Reck was under like no pressure the whole game.

But, there you go.

Obvtowned myself.

It seems that the reasoning is wrong because TownReck just used a bad assumption that theam is a counterwagon.

[xRECKONERx]

Oh, the other scummie I got was Best Role, which essentially makes any other actions I take work without fail. I never got another Scummie, so, kind of useless.

[xRECKONERx]

See Tbone is alive still, POE says its you or him, he coloured himself green.

Actually, PoE doesn't say that at all. PoE from the assumed perspective of "there was more than one scum in that group" might say that, but PoE from the perspective of "scum have an ability that interferes somehow" says that it's more likely that scum was OUTSIDE that group.

[Slandaar]

In what universe as scum do I kill off the recipient of 1A's scummie, then turn around and systematically kill off the other members of that group until WELP POE SAYS RECK?

OK Reck

So what were you saying here?

[BBmolla]

Ew. Bring back DV.

I mean he's town, but "BB is scum due to PoE" is derp.

Summarize, why are the others so town that I'm scum because of PoE. I'm not reading all that garbage.