Open 429: True Love (Game Over)

[Bitmap]

@Om:
I'm a math guy. Using previous games from the wiki as statistics, what was the probability of a town win when everyone claimed their partners? What is the probability that town won at all?

The answer is 0% for both of them.

I think the problem with the last few games is that there was not a lot of discussion and just random lynches thrown around just hoping that a pair would end up holding someone scummy. All of the other games only had 12 pages or less of game talk.

Listen, we have 2 weeks. Let's use it to it's full extent. Most of the previous games failed because they just random lynched and didn't provide much discussion.

If my calculations are right even though I'm a bit rusty in Stats, our chances are around 1/3 to win this as town.

Because imagine it like 2 town pairs and 2 scum pairs. It's

(2 choose 1)/(4 choose 2) which ends up to be 1/3. My work might be off and if anyone knows statistics, feel free to correct me.

Also my RV goes to

VOTE: The Acting Method

[citysnake]

I think it would be advantageous to reveal pairings (although I don't have much say in my revealing my own anymore ). Obviously defending one player may actually be an attempt to save that player's lover and knowing pairings would help to put interactions in this context. Although voting will be affected by knowledge of the pairings it isn't necessarily adverse- as lovers die together it makes sense to vote for pairings that are likelier to contain scum.

[Venmar]

Everyone in the game is going to be buddying their lover one way or another, so there's no reason to try and hunt for hints of bussing, as that would be suicidal.

The pairing of scum is identical to the pairing of town. They will act as such to the best of their abilities, and since they will have the same survival instinct to their partner as any town lover would have to their lover, the tells in this area don't seem as strong.

Going to wait for Techno and everyone else who hasn't spoken yet to get some more opinions down, but i am not against outing lovers as i don't see too much cons.

[Bitmap]

I would request that we use the 2 weeks to our fullest abilities. All the previous games failed due to so little conversation.

[Om of the Nom]

VOTE: Bitmap

[Venmar]

I would request that we use the 2 weeks to our fullest abilities. All the previous games failed due to so little conversation.

- I heard you the first time you brought that up. Any reason why you are emphasizing it so hard?

[Junpei]

e

Do you understand this setup? Read the rules very carefully.

[Venmar]

e

Do you understand this setup? Read the rules very carefully.

- I'm sorry... what did i miss or do?

[Bitmap]

I would request that we use the 2 weeks to our fullest abilities. All the previous games failed due to so little conversation.

- I heard you the first time you brought that up. Any reason why you are emphasizing it so hard?

Because I know someone's just going to dive headfirst in order to hope that one of the partners are scum. Like this.

VOTE: Bitmap

Yes, cause obviously all the previous games worked out wonderfully because everyone picked "which pair is scummier". Earth to Om, if it didn't work the 4th time, what makes you think it will work the 5th time. And explain your reasoning of your vote.

[Om of the Nom]

The pairing of scum is identical to the pairing of town. They will act as such to the best of their abilities, and since they will have the same survival instinct to their partner as any town lover would have to their lover, the tells in this area don't seem as strong.

PEDIT: Hooray, I'm right! Call it gut if you want~ ;)

[Junpei]

there are 4 lover pairs, 2 with 2 town and 2 with 1 mafia 1 town.

Scumhunting through pairs is so fail for the reasons Bitmap outlined. It's just not smart at all.

Venmar: No town is going to buddy their partner that way and there is another pair somewhere that mafia also wants to keep alive. That's all the damn info you need. exposing pairs will just make scumhunting harder.

[Venmar]

Wait. Town can be paired with scum? I didn't know that...

In that case sorry, i thought that all town pairs were together and scum were paired together.

[Bitmap]

Wait. Town can be paired with scum? I didn't know that...

In that case sorry, i thought that all town pairs were together and scum were paired together.

Yes. So there's a good chance of bussing.

[The Acting Method]

Venmar you are thinking of Polygamist Mafia where that is the case.

I actually did read this game's set up on the wiki (Mainly because I wanted something to do while waiting for game start.)

I disagree that a lover claim right now is ideal, I think it would be better to do one near the end of day 1 beginning of day 2.

There are my thoughts.

Also,
randomly voting:
VOTE: Venmar

[Venmar]

Venmar you are thinking of Polygamist Mafia where that is the case.

- No, i just thought that the two scum were paired together and all of the town lovers were only paired with other town lovers. I jumped into this game thinking that, i was obviously wrong.

[TeChNoWC]

Vote: Venmar

- MY OBVSCUM PARTNER!!! MUWWAHAHAHAH!!

@Om: I don't like the idea of outting the lover pairs. I've done some reading leading into this setup (examples given on the wiki); massclaims were a common practice and they all ended in maf victories.

[TeChNoWC]

Ok, reading the second page now.

[TeChNoWC]

Bitmap's reasoning is epically good. I had all the same thoughts pregame. Gonna stick him in the town pile.

Venmar townslip in post 39. Could be faked but I believe it. Leaning town.

Om, what is with the Bitmap vote? What is your opinion on your partner?

[TeChNoWC]

Because if we're going to lynch someone, we need to know who else we're lynching with them. This is basically the main reason behind it.

This is terribad. So say player A and player B are paired. Player A looks super scummy. Player B looks super towny.

Better yet, let's ramp it up and even say Player B is somehow mystically conftown.

You are then going to umm and arrh about lynching Player A because you want to keep Player B alive?

I don't see how knowing who else will die will help us other then make us more hesitant to lynch a scum when we think their partner could be town. One of them always will be. We will ALWAYS lose a townie when we kill a scum.

[Om of the Nom]

My partner is town, though I may have a potential gut read of scum on them.

Also Tech, you're implying that because one half of a pair is conftown, the other one is town. This isn't how it works.

[TeChNoWC]

No no, that's not what I said.

You want to know who is going to die when we lynch a scummy. Why? I said, a towny will ALWAYS die when a lynch is performed, so it doesn't matter who is on the other side of the coin.

On second thought though, I could see a potential benefit if both people were heavily suspected as scum (because they can't both be scum). Depending on the reasons why they are suspected (buddying each other, but in this case they would simply claim); and if this isn't the case, and they are scummy for various tells, then it's great to lynch one; better chances of hitting scum. Benefit I can see is in this scenario we would be more inclined to go through with the lynch. Still though, it's minor and will only encourage quicklynches ('I hate em both, let's go!').

You didn't answer my other question. Why the vote on Bit?

[Om of the Nom]

Call it gut if you want~ ;)

[TeChNoWC]

Question: I thought I noticed you in a queue earlier as a hydra with Bit. So I am guessing you know him well/are coaching him. I've noticed his playstyle improving a lot since he first came on the scene (can't comment ongoing game).

Has he got any completed games? Do you know his scum/town traits?

Because my gut is telling me the exact opposite.

[Om of the Nom]

No completed games that I know of, and also no I don't since in my only game with him, his playstyle was heavily influenced by me.

[Bitmap]

Has he got any completed games? Do you know his scum/town traits?

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=22080

I subbed into that game for the last day. It's the only game that is technically completed.

Anyways, I'm a little worried about Om but that's how he normally plays so I don't know if it's town Om or scum Om we are dealing with.

And I'm still waiting on everyone else to contribute.