Open 429: True Love (Game Over)

[Bitmap]

Hooray! You found it! *gives Bitmap a cookie*

I still have yet to see you prove why gut is flawed. THe best you can come up with is that town lost the last time this setup was run due to me not voting off my gut. Which, you know, proves gut is better.

YOU VOTED OFF YOUR GUT THAT TIME!

And town lost FOUR CONSECUTIVE TIMES IN A ROW!

[Bitmap]

/headdesk

I'll be back later today. I got classes.

[Om of the Nom]

No I didn't. I clearly said I voted him because I had been suspicious of his actions all game. The correct gut read was one that came out of nowhere and therefore is really a "true" gut read.

Why all the emphasis on the fact town lost four times in a row? Shouldn't you be trying to change that, instead of trying to repeat it?

[Junpei]

OmNom has one of the best guts that i have so far encountered, i wouldn't just throw it away.

Honestly, i got a small scum vibe from Bitmap when he felt he needed to repeat himself about using the full day. Don't see why as town it would be such a crucial thing to repeat other than to look townie.

Venmar is town btw. Super townie obvtown. Regardless of the townslip. He's thinking like me, and in this case that's a towntell.

vote om of the nom

"Oh, you trust my gut reads which I don't need to explain a lot? You're obv town and I'm keeping you alive if I can also pls claim your partner so that I don't have to accidentally kill you".

That's what I got from this anyway. Even if you can back up your belief in "think like how I've SAID I think = obv town" (lol you have zero respect for Venmar as a player or something?) I will still suspect you so don't waste your time.

[Om of the Nom]

Oh Junpei.
You make me lol.
I'll explain in due time. Take a look at Bitmap's posts and tell me what you see.

[Junpei]

This post is reserved for post game.

Honestly can't believe you just said that to me. I'm going to take a shower and go to the gym, so I'm done till later.

[Om of the Nom]

Aren't you overreacting?

[Om of the Nom]

Frankly, if you want me to play serious, just wait till after school today. Because right now I'm so fucking tired and it's affecting my mood drastically.

[PMysterious]

Well, this is interesting. Let's see what we can find.

@Om:
I'm a math guy. Using previous games from the wiki as statistics, what was the probability of a town win when everyone claimed their partners? What is the probability that town won at all?

The answer is 0% for both of them.

I think the problem with the last few games is that there was not a lot of discussion and just random lynches thrown around just hoping that a pair would end up holding someone scummy. All of the other games only had 12 pages or less of game talk.

Listen, we have 2 weeks. Let's use it to it's full extent. Most of the previous games failed because they just random lynched and didn't provide much discussion.

If my calculations are right even though I'm a bit rusty in Stats, our chances are around 1/3 to win this as town.

Because imagine it like 2 town pairs and 2 scum pairs. It's

(2 choose 1)/(4 choose 2) which ends up to be 1/3. My work might be off and if anyone knows statistics, feel free to correct me.

Nice use of math. I am good at math myself, but this blows my mind away.

Wait. Town can be paired with scum? I didn't know that...

In that case sorry, i thought that all town pairs were together and scum were paired together.

Well, I can see why you would NOW find that out.

If (and that's a big IF) there are 2 couples with Scum, at best we (the town) should be able to get 2 chances to kill scum. There are a lot of scenarios that can occur however.

Day 1: Double Town Couple dies. (You go to LYLO) Scum dies with Town (Great! A good start.)
Day 2 (DT): Double Town dies (

Mafia wins

) Scum dies with Town (Still in it)
Day 2 (TS): Double Town dies (You go to LYLO) Scum dies with Town. (

Town Wins

)
Day 3: Double Town dies (

Mafia Wins

) Scum dies with Town (

Town Wins

)

I know I'm going a little bit too math, but that's pretty much the basic point.

Overall: I agree with Bitmap, we should use these Game Days to the best of our extent. We can't do quick hammers unless we are guaranteed that player is scum. I'll hold my vote for now.

[The Acting Method]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=True_Love Here's the link to the games set up...

In particular:
[quote=wiki]Lovers are divided into four pairs.

Both scum are individually paired with a town player.

Lover pairs do not know their partner's alignment.[/quote]

There's no if. We are in an open set up the facts are clear. We can only afford one mislynch of a Double town pair.

Also Bitmap, Om has repeatedly said he didn't vote off his gut that time.

I'll be reading through and seeing what I can pick up from this game so far. So far Ven is looking townie and Om is playing like he did the last game we were in together.

[The Acting Method]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=True_Love Here's the link to the games set up...

In particular:

Lovers are divided into four pairs.

Both scum are individually paired with a town player.

Lover pairs do not know their partner's alignment.

There's no if. We are in an open set up the facts are clear. We can only afford one mislynch of a Double town pair.

Also Bitmap, Om has repeatedly said he didn't vote off his gut that time.

I'll be reading through and seeing what I can pick up from this game so far. So far Ven is looking townie and Om is playing like he did the last game we were in together.

[Bitmap]

Also Bitmap, Om has repeatedly said he didn't vote off his gut that time.

I'll be reading through and seeing what I can pick up from this game so far. So far Ven is looking townie and Om is playing like he did the last game we were in together.

He didn't vote based on logic, though so he was lying in that aspect. I re-read that game and his last vote did not seem like logic. It seemed like peer pressure.

Ven does look townie and it just seemed like he made a town-slip.

Anywho, I'm interested in your reads.

[The Acting Method]

Wall of train of thought while reading through entire game.

Random vote stage...
Out lovers at the beginning? and random vote.
discussion of theory (Junpei doesn't like)
Junpei/Om reading theory based argument= null on both.
Bitmap seems interested but wants to read up on game.
Most seem hesitant with the idea.
Bitmap and Junpei start going after Om's game and how it was.
Bitmap promotes being slow through the game (which I agree with) And finally random votes... Why not random vote in first post?
More people start talking giving a little of their input.
Bitmap randomly states what he had stated above... Why?
Discussion of setup.
Okay, that was stupid... Maybe if this was a page after the first time you wrote it, it make sense. Also, what the hell with your comment before you asked him your question about his vote?
Speaking of which... Om, could you clarify 34 for me, are you agreeing with the quoted post?
Junpei is making a good point.
Townslip from Venmar.
Null.
Me commenting on what has been discussed so far.
Also obv. joke in entrance for tech.
I see TeCh's point on 43 and do agree.
Hmmm interesting. Tech is correct, we do lose 1 town for each scum no matter what.
More meta slash playstyle discussion.
Oh great, you two will be bantering about this for awhile. Aren't you.
Gonna give an input? This seems town/town right now.
59: You don't need to repeat it on page 2 when no one is actually being idiotic now though do you?
Ugh, I'm already tired of this argument... Tempted to call all involved town and be done with it.
I'm looking at this and frankly I think Bitmap wants Om lynched... Om wants Bitmap lynched, is either distancing or townvtown now.
Actually you didn't really. You just said let's use as much of the day as we can.
68: Om's stating that's why he mislynched aourned you reading?
Post 74: I do agree, instead of explaining why the method Bitmap wants is better he's determined to prove gut doesn't work. (I've found that gut varies and logic doesn't always work.)
Okay more of this. Going to gut say that all involved are town.
I do agree that quick hammering and quick days are a bad idea, activity and discussion I personally encourage for this game and also suggest you take advantage of your lover quick topics fully.
Bit: Peer Pressure does not equal gut, I repeat DOES NOT EQUAL GUT. Therefore He's being more truthful then you. It is closer to logic since it comes from others using words to convince you to vote a certain way.

So far a lot of Null reads.

Bitmap, Om, Venmar are all reading town because of the argument.

I want to hear some from our more quiet at the moment players.
VOTE: citysnake

There's a few questions I have in there that I'd like to lure out.

[TeChNoWC]

This ^^.

I think all of Om/Venmar/Bit are town.

At the moment the active lurkers bother me, namely PMyst.

P, you got any ideas on who is scum/town? Your first post to me sounded like an attempt to be diplomatic, with no real weigh in on the discussion. Now you seem to be discussing a bit of setup, but no scumhunting/opinions on the current argument. Thoughts please, contribute.

Similar goes for City. Next post I want thoughts on who is scum etc.

PoE tells me scum is likely in PMyst, City, Junpei, TAM; in ascending order from scum to town.

I fully get Bitmap's paranoia. And while I worry P's quicklynch paranoia is an attempt to look towny, I agree with wholeheartedly. Today is gonna be nice and slow, peoples. Let's just be careful with the votes, shall we.

Anyway, park my vote here for now

Unvote
Vote: PMysterious

[Venmar]

While i would normally find Techno's reiteration to take the day nice and slow a bit shaky, this actually matches how Techno usually wants to deal with a game, as I usually don't think Techno rushes things. I am using previous game meta to make this assumption, by the way. Probably null for now.

I would surely make sure if its okay with your lover first before you do it. They may not want you to reveal that information.

- Techno, what is so diplomatic about this post?

[TeChNoWC]

Ah Ven, gotta run to uni, but would love to dialogue with you.

If I am rushing you can almost bet I am scum or town trying something new + apathetic about the game.

He doesn't take a stance. He doesn't give content. Should we massclaim? No opinion is given, only a statement that we could all sort of nod our heads at and say 'aye, that sounds good'.

Plus he still hasn't given reads. I would like to hear more from him. Push for content is the goal atm.

Gotta run, sorry bro. Good to be in a game with you again though.

[Venmar]

Gotta run, sorry bro. Good to be in a game with you again though.

[citysnake]

If my calculations are right even though I'm a bit rusty in Stats, our chances are around 1/3 to win this as town.

Because imagine it like 2 town pairs and 2 scum pairs. It's

(2 choose 1)/(4 choose 2) which ends up to be 1/3. My work might be off and if anyone knows statistics, feel free to correct me.

You've lost me but other people seem impressed- can someone explain this, please?

To be honest I don't have a scum read on anyone yet. The two players I see as most likely town are Tech and Om. Tech seems more relaxed than in our previous game and Om is playing similarly to his other game with this setup where he was town.

I appreciate this post isn't very insightful considering there's 4 pages of discussion to comment on. The only cinema tickets left for TDKR were this morning at 5am so I didn't sleep last night. I'll post something better tomorrow when I'm able to think properly.

[Bitmap]

If my calculations are right even though I'm a bit rusty in Stats, our chances are around 1/3 to win this as town.

Because imagine it like 2 town pairs and 2 scum pairs. It's

(2 choose 1)/(4 choose 2) which ends up to be 1/3. My work might be off and if anyone knows statistics, feel free to correct me.

You've lost me but other people seem impressed- can someone explain this, please?

To be honest I don't have a scum read on anyone yet. The two players I see as most likely town are Tech and Om. Tech seems more relaxed than in our previous game and Om is playing similarly to his other game with this setup where he was town.

I appreciate this post isn't very insightful considering there's 4 pages of discussion to comment on. The only cinema tickets left for TDKR were this morning at 5am so I didn't sleep last night. I'll post something better tomorrow when I'm able to think properly.

It's statistics. Think of it like 2 red marbles and 2 blue marbles. Red marbles are the pairs who have a scum in them. And using combinations, I figured out that the odds of picking 2 red marbles is 1/3. I might be wrong and probably have some slight miscalculations. I just kind of don't get how mafia won 4 games in a row in the beginning.

[Venmar]

To be honest I don't have a scum read on anyone yet. The two players I see as most likely town are Tech and Om. Tech seems more relaxed than in our previous game

- Relaxed? Can you explain what you mean?

I appreciate this post isn't very insightful considering there's 4 pages of discussion to comment on. The only cinema tickets left for TDKR were this morning at 5am so I didn't sleep last night. I'll post something better tomorrow when I'm able to think properly.

- I don't like how you are focusing on excusing your inactivity in 1/3rds of your post.

[The Acting Method]

City, surely you have more thoughts than that?

I mean surely you have some kind of opinion on all of the players in this game... You'd have to as most have provided at least some content.

[Espeonage]

Hey guys, got three hours of classes. I will do a votecount when I finish.

[Om of the Nom]

Speaking of which... Om, could you clarify 34 for me, are you agreeing with the quoted post?

That was me quoting the part of Venmar's post that was bad, as someone had raised the point earlier and he wasn't sure exactly what they were talking about.

Anyway, TAM is town, Ven is still town, Tech is town, Junpei is probably town due to gut. I'm super duper obvtown and confirmed town to myself, which leaves citysnake, Bitmap and PMyst.
Bitmap is scum based on the argument I had with him, as that gave me super duper huge gut scum reads.
citysnake is probably scum because I get more scum gut vibes from his posts. Can't pinpoint exactly why though.
PMyst could be scum because his first post was useless filler, but I'm not putting too much money into this.

Going for a Bitmap/citysnake scumteam here.

[Om of the Nom]

I'm willing to vote city if you guys follow my other reads to some extent if city flips scum.

[Bitmap]

It's still too early for me to point the scum cannon on citysnake as I would like to hear more output from him. But the fact that he's Om's lover...

Shit.

I really don't want to associate the two together for scuminess and I don't like having a perspective solely on gut.

Speaking of which... Om, could you clarify 34 for me, are you agreeing with the quoted post?

That was me quoting the part of Venmar's post that was bad, as someone had raised the point earlier and he wasn't sure exactly what they were talking about.

Anyway, TAM is town, Ven is still town, Tech is town, Junpei is probably town

due to gut

. I'm

super duper obvtown and confirmed town to myself

, which leaves citysnake, Bitmap and PMyst.
Bitmap is scum based on the argument I had with him, as that gave me

super duper huge gut scum reads

.
citysnake is probably scum because I get more

scum gut vibes

from his posts.

Can't pinpoint exactly why though.

PMyst

could

be scum because his first post was useless filler, but I'm not putting too much money into this.

Going for a Bitmap/citysnake scumteam here.

Your argument lost my interest based on what I bolded. Come up with a better argument, okay? Don't hurt yourself.

I'm kinda curious around PMyst. His posts are just restating what I came up with and the lack actual reads. As Techno said, we should push for more content and should focus on getting content out of both citysnake and PMyst. As for now, Om said enough and we need to start pressuring the other non-active players. I'll push my vote off him for now.

UNVOTE: Om of the Nom
VOTE: PMysterious

Can we get your reads and you explaining why?