Open 429: True Love (Game Over)

[Om of the Nom]

Who said I'm not pressuring the non-active players?
Also it's nice to see you instantly discrediting my reads. Good job at being scum, it's so obvious.

[Junpei]

I'm also going to go ahead an +1 bitmaps latest post. This is me discrediting your wish washy reads that are impossible to analyze beyond face value. Guess I'm scum too or were you just abusing rhetoric and acting confident?

also I thought I posted this hear but I guess not

v/la 25-29

that's no access.

[Bitmap]

Who said I'm not pressuring the non-active players?

I never said this.

Also it's nice to see you instantly discrediting my reads. Good job at being scum, it's so obvious.

Listen Om, it's fine if your reads contain some gut, but unless you have reasoning with proof, that gut feeling is pretty worthless and unappealing. Everyone has a different perspective and you have to show that your perspective is right by backing it up with evidence. You can't go all 16th century Renaissance inquisitor on people. At least inquisitors have evidence when they burn heretics, you know.

[Om of the Nom]

Fine, I'll be nice and give you guys more to go off on.
I've already made mention of some of my reasons for thinking Bitmap is scum, but in case you didn't notice it, I've been reading some of his posts like he's trying to fake-towniness. The numerous posts where you tell us to use the deadline to it's full extent are great examples of this.
I think my citysnake read has to do with the lack of anything in his posts. He's posted barely anything in the game, and all the scumhunting he's done is in our QT (and it's barely even scumhunting, as it's all focused on partners and pairings).

[TeChNoWC]

PMyst, who is scum? Post already.

[Venmar]

I will agree that Citysnake isn't really contributing much, his latest post is just kind of focused on him making weird town reads I had to ask about and a lot of it focused on excusing himself for barely being inactive, which i didn't even see as a issue yet.

@Techno - I find that really harsh to say about PMysterious. Your reasoning can literally be pinned on anyone in the game who made their first post. I can't really see why you expected someone's FIRST post to be as detailed and contributive as you were hoping it to be. Seems more like a easy target to nitpick from the crowd, no offense Techno, just not seeing what you got going for PM.

[citysnake]

Everyone in the game is going to be buddying their lover one way or another, so there's no reason to try and hunt for hints of bussing, as that would be suicidal.

townslip seem genuine.

Thoughts on Om of the Nom vs Bitmap: I think both were arguing what they genuinely thought was best for town (whether they are themselves scum or not). Om was going with the reasoning that's been used for claiming straight away in previous games. He seemed sure in the QT that it's the best strategy before the game started. Bitmap wants another strategy as the previous one hasn't yet worked. Both null.

My partner is town, though I may have a potential gut read of scum on them.

What on Earth does that mean? I sought clarification in the QT but he just repeated the same thing. It comes across as him suggesting that I'm scum so he therefore cannot be scum. But at the same time I'm not scum so don't vote for me and get him killed. Leaning scum.

OmNom has one of the best guts that i have so far encountered, i wouldn't just throw it away.

Looks like Venmar is trying to give control to Om. Possible scumteam?

Venmar is town btw. Super townie obvtown. Regardless of the townslip. He's thinking like me, and in this case that's a towntell.

Possible scumteam.

If my calculations are right even though I'm a bit rusty in Stats, our chances are around 1/3 to win this as town.

Because imagine it like 2 town pairs and 2 scum pairs. It's statistics. Think of it like 2 red marbles and 2 blue marbles. Red marbles are the pairs who have a scum in them. And using combinations, I figured out that the odds of picking 2 red marbles is 1/3. I might be wrong and probably have some slight miscalculations. I just kind of don't get how mafia won 4 games in a row in the beginning.

Would the odds of winning be statistically lower if we knew who the pairs are?

- Relaxed? Can you explain what you mean?

- I don't like how you are focusing on excusing your inactivity in 1/3rds of your post.

I remembered wrongly- I just ISOd the game we had and he's just as relaxed at the start of the game. We had an argument about whether another players reaction to a claim was scummy on D2 and I wanted Tech lynched from then so I'm probably comparing him to his stubbornness at that point in the game. Neutral

I just wanted to be clear that the reason I didn't have much to say wasn't due to lack of effort or commitment to this game.

Om's chat in the QT varies considerably from his QT in his last game. In that one he was asking Kdowns for reads and reaction to what was going on in the main thread. In our chat he hasn't asked a single question yet.

So-
I think Om is scum with a possible pairing with Venmar.
Tech neutral.
I think Bitmap is town. Junpei leaning town.
Not enough from PMysterious or TAM to read yet.

[PMysterious]

PMyst, who is scum? Post already.

I'm seeing Om as scum. I can't really put my finger on anyone else.

[Junpei]

citysnake: why were you posting so much in your QT?

[Venmar]

Vote: CitySnake

[citysnake]

Ive made 7 posts, most of them single sentences.

[citysnake]

I can see why people would've previously voted for me for lurking. Why have you just voted for me now?

[Venmar]

Here's why i am voting CitySnake:

- He says i am town by saying my townslip is genuine, but then proceeds to say I am scum with OmNom. This is very wish-washy because you called me town and then scum in the very same post. the post that I made that you connected to OmNom is very weak, I was simply stating a fact that OmNom has a great gut, and it should not be forgotten. I wasn't trying to buddy Omnom, stating a fact about their skill, is not exactly buddying.

- This is branching off of the top point, City Snake in that post called OmNom null at the beginning, but then in the next paragraph he says he is now leaning scum for him. Then we have Techno. Previously, Citysnake called Techno town, but in this post he immediately changes his mind and puts him down as neutral. Citysnake is having a lot of issues with his reads, and they're being very wish washy.

- He makes a list of scum reads, in this case, me and Omnom, but doesn't actually proceed to make a vote for either of us. This is suspicious because it shows he is being hesitant to vote for those he thinks is scummy. Make a vote or I will assume you are hesitant to vote for those you know are town.

- I overheard that he has been talking in his quicktopic more than in the thread. This isn't exactly bad or scummy, but it gives me a red light because it means he has his attention elsewhere, while still connected to the game.

- I didn't like how he spent a lot of time excusing his lurking or inactivity when it wasn't really a issue. This is especially weird given people said he has been posting in his quicktopic, so he obviously wasn't as busy or inactive as he made himself out to be.

[citysnake]

I was writing it as I read through the thread and how my reads changed. The last bit is how I feel now.

How many votes is Om on? Im not going to let you push my vote around.

As for more activity in the QT- I imagine the word count was similar before post #106.

[Venmar]

How many votes is Om on? Im not going to let you push my vote around.

- I don't think he has any votes. Also, not trying to push your vote around, just trying to encourage you to actually MAKE one.

[citysnake]

I'll check when I get home- at the pub now. If thats true I'll vote for him.

[TeChNoWC]

Looks like Venmar is trying to give control to Om. Possible scumteam?

Do you think scum-Venmar would be pushing a lynch on town-Snake, which would end in suiciding scum-Om on D1? This seems silly to me. It's like bussing without the cred. One thing we can assume is likely is that a scummy would NOT try and get the partner of his scumpartner lynched D1; if anything they would only ever very lightly bus them. Not bandwagon. scum-Venmar would be more likely to vote for scum-Om, so he would get the cred. Buddying Om, lynching you and then Om flipping scum would be utterly stupid.

townslip seem genuine.

That wasn't the townslip. You paying attention?

I remembered wrongly- I just ISOd the game we had and he's just as relaxed at the start of the game. We had an argument about whether another players reaction to a claim was scummy on D2 and I wanted Tech lynched from then so I'm probably comparing him to his stubbornness at that point in the game. Neutral

Actually no, you were extremely on the money with your last comment; only problem is it isn't much of a towntell. I played the 'uppity semi-experienced semi-noob towny apprentice to Agar' that game. 'Padawan', he called me. Ha. And it NEARLY paid off.

@Techno - I find that really harsh to say about PMysterious. Your reasoning can literally be pinned on anyone in the game who made their first post. I can't really see why you expected someone's FIRST post to be as detailed and contributive as you were hoping it to be. Seems more like a easy target to nitpick from the crowd, no offense Techno, just not seeing what you got going for PM.

I find it a bit harsh that you are pushing Snake for reads and not PMyst. Why does PMyst get a free ticket? To be honest, City is contributing more.
I had them both as gut and PoE. What are your thoughts on PMyst? What do you think about his first post? Nothing?

Everyone took a stance with the claim issue. I felt PMyst was trying to say as little as possible to upset as few people as possible. It's a small lead, but it is early D1.

P, why is Om scum? Have you played with him before?

[Venmar]

I find it a bit harsh that you are pushing Snake for reads and not PMyst. Why does PMyst get a free ticket? To be honest, City is contributing more.

- That's true. Then again, i would rather push a player that has actually contributed so i have something to base my reads or votes off of. PMysterious hasn't really said anything yet that would tip him off as scum or town, while CitySnake has said somethings that pinged my scumdar. It is also true that Citysnake is contributing more, but that also lead to me suspecting what he has contributed. PMysterious hasn't contributed enough for me to call him scum off of, and I can't bring myself to really shoot in the dark for PM when i can feel more confident with someone that has said more. This is why in-actives are usually not listed in town or scum reads, because people can't pursue them because there isn't that much to pursue.

I had them both as gut and PoE. What are your thoughts on PMyst? What do you think about his first post? Nothing?
Everyone took a stance with the claim issue. I felt PMyst was trying to say as little as possible to upset as few people as possible. It's a small lead, but it is early D1.

- I think PMysterious really needs to post more, but until she does i have a null read on her. Calling her scummy for inactivity this early isn't fair.

I would surely make sure if its okay with your lover first before you do it. They may not want you to reveal that information.

- This post doesn't say much, I basically read it as "claiming your partners is fine as long as your partner is okay with it". It doesn't read as diplomatic to the game, more of rather just diplomatic to her partner. Only four people have spoken before she made this post, with the one directly her, ( mine ) is actually quite similar. That said, i am not going to bite into a case that is based off of someone's first post, can't see why you would expect so much from someone for their very first post.

PMyst, who is scum? Post already.

I'm seeing Om as scum. I can't really put my finger on anyone else.

- So you have one scum read on Omnom and no other Scum / Town / Null reads? Any reason why you are avoiding on forming opinions on other players? Also, can you give at least a brief explanation on why Omnom is scummy to you?

[citysnake]

VOTE: Vote: Om of the Nom. Unless I'm mistaken that's a second vote, along side Junpei.

@mod

would appreciate a votecount.

Do you think scum-Venmar would be pushing a lynch on town-Snake, which would end in suiciding scum-Om on D1? This seems silly to me. It's like bussing without the cred. One thing we can assume is likely is that a scummy would NOT try and get the partner of his scumpartner lynched D1; if anything they would only ever very lightly bus them. Not bandwagon. scum-Venmar would be more likely to vote for scum-Om, so he would get the cred. Buddying Om, lynching you and then Om flipping scum would be utterly stupid.

I question whether or not he's actually pushing for a lynch. We've agreed that we need to make best use of the two weeks and we're only a few days into that- I could see scum putting early pressure on the other scumteam in case they end up getting lynched as by your reasoning scum would be unlikely to do that. This is still bussing and I disagree that scum wouldn't get credit for it. If Om and I get lynched tonight then by your reasoning Venmar would be unlikely to be scum which absolute highlights this. It's a less direct bus but everyone would be aware of the pair by the next Day and the fact that it's less obvious could be an advantage.

That wasn't the townslip. You paying attention?

The quote was why I thought the townslip seemed genuine.

[PMysterious]

STOP CALLING ME A FREAKIN' FEMALE!!!!! I am a male.

[Venmar]

STOP CALLING ME A FREAKIN' FEMALE!!!!! I am a male.

- I blame JigglyPuff. Also, why is this the only thing you have to say when me and Techno have asked you questions?

[Bitmap]

Om's chat in the QT varies considerably from his QT in his last game.

In that one he was asking Kdowns for reads and reaction to what was going on in the main thread. In our chat he hasn't asked a single question yet.

So-
I think Om is scum with a possible pairing with Venmar.
Tech neutral.
I think Bitmap is town. Junpei leaning town.
Not enough from PMysterious or TAM to read yet.

Interesting. Also,

citysnake is probably scum because I get more scum gut vibes from his posts. Can't pinpoint exactly why though.

Do you feel like he has scum vibes on you because of what is said in the QT? Maybe he is suspicious of you and unwilling to trust you enough to ask for advice?

If my calculations are right even though I'm a bit rusty in Stats, our chances are around 1/3 to win this as town.

Because imagine it like 2 town pairs and 2 scum pairs. It's statistics. Think of it like 2 red marbles and 2 blue marbles. Red marbles are the pairs who have a scum in them. And using combinations, I figured out that the odds of picking 2 red marbles is 1/3. I might be wrong and probably have some slight miscalculations. I just kind of don't get how mafia won 4 games in a row in the beginning.

Would the odds of winning be statistically lower if we knew who the pairs are?

No. It would still stay the same but would heavily influence our thought process.

@Techno - I find that really harsh to say about PMysterious. Your reasoning can literally be pinned on anyone in the game who made their first post. I can't really see why you expected someone's FIRST post to be as detailed and contributive as you were hoping it to be. Seems more like a easy target to nitpick from the crowd, no offense Techno, just not seeing what you got going for PM.

I find it a bit harsh that you are pushing Snake for reads and not PMyst. Why does PMyst get a free ticket? To be honest, City is contributing more.
I had them both as gut and PoE. What are your thoughts on PMyst? What do you think about his first post? Nothing?

Exactly! We need to know more about everyone. If we just tunnel citysnake, we might be missing key elements from PMyst and tunneling skews our vision of one person by making us think they are scummier than they actually are. This happened in a game which is on-going so I won't speak any further about it.

I find it a bit harsh that you are pushing Snake for reads and not PMyst. Why does PMyst get a free ticket? To be honest, City is contributing more.

- That's true. Then again, i would rather push a player that has actually contributed so i have something to base my reads or votes off of. PMysterious hasn't really said anything yet that would tip him off as scum or town, while CitySnake has said somethings that pinged my scumdar. It is also true that Citysnake is contributing more, but that also lead to me suspecting what he has contributed. PMysterious hasn't contributed enough for me to call him scum off of, and I can't bring myself to really shoot in the dark for PM when i can feel more confident with someone that has said more. This is why in-actives are usually not listed in town or scum reads, because people can't pursue them because there isn't that much to pursue.

Why should PMyst care to contribute if there's no real pressure on him? We need to use our votes to pressure people at this stage. Right now, he has no fear of getting lynched because all the attention has been going to citysnake. Anyways, we aren't going to lynch anyone this early.

STOP CALLING ME A FREAKIN' FEMALE!!!!! I am a male.

Is that all? I already got called a chick so many times already. Anyways, can you give us explanations of your reads and whatnot? You haven't contributed much.

[Bitmap]

STOP CALLING ME A FREAKIN' FEMALE!!!!! I am a male.

- I blame JigglyPuff.

Also, why is this the only thing you have to say when me and Techno have asked you questions?

^

[The Acting Method]

I am in agreement with the above post.

PMysterious, why so silent?
UNVOTE:
VOTE: PMysterious

Please speak more. I'd love to hear more from you, considering you are the only player I haven't gotten to get any opinon's on other than null.

rereading the stuff from when I gave my reads to current post and see if my opinions change at all.

[Bitmap]

Unofficial Vote Count

PMysterious - Bitmap, Techno, TAM
Om - Junpei, citysnake
citysnake- Venmar

Not Voting: PMyst, Om