Open 421-Pamplona II: Electric Bullgaloo! Game over

[inte]

0 info? how about the fucking rolecop

or our jailkeeper

or me? we all have stronger roles than hider

[Rainbowdash]

@inte - Who is scum in the PR claims?
@UN - Same question

No pony do anything much, im still trying to calculate if I can find any semi-forced clearings.

[inte]

i have a feeling its two of the docs

i wouldn't like to lynch them though, based on their play

[McStab]

I think tonight the best strategy is not announcing anything strict. Hider announces he's checking out a townie, but no one in particular. If he dies, we can largely assume a townie is really a scum.

Tracker and I don't announce who we track. Jailkeeper targets one of the townies; if they really are town, it doesn't hurt them, and if they are scum, they can't work.

I think our move is pretty clear, in that we lynch the scummiest of the doc claims. Every doc should protect me or the tracker. Don't say who you will protect, but I would very much like it if you could all roll a dice or something random to pick (and don't let us know who).

We aren't lynching a townie today though in my opinion. We know with 100% certainty that a scum is amongst the seven claiming PRs. JF is almost conf. clear, and I know I'm town. Three docs and a JK is statistically the most improbable, so I say we lynch out of the pool of three docs.

I suggest we all ISO Bitmap, Near and DMS.

[inte]

I think tonight the best strategy is not announcing anything strict. Hider announces he's checking out a townie, but no one in particular. If he dies, we can largely assume a townie is really a scum.

Tracker and I don't announce who we track. Jailkeeper targets one of the townies; if they really are town, it doesn't hurt them, and if they are scum, they can't work.

I think our move is pretty clear, in that we lynch the scummiest of the doc claims. Every doc should protect me or the tracker. Don't say who you will protect, but I would very much like it if you could all roll a dice or something random to pick (and don't let us know who).

We aren't lynching a townie today though in my opinion. We know with 100% certainty that a scum is amongst the seven claiming PRs. JF is almost conf. clear, and I know I'm town. Three docs and a JK is statistically the most improbable, so I say we lynch out of the pool of three docs.

I suggest we all ISO Bitmap, Near and DMS.

i like this just as much, because i can do what i wanted to do before

[Near]

wow

So if its all true we drew PPPPTIH

It means scum DO have a JOAT and more likely than not have a driver. If DJD wants to hide I would heavily suggest they simply hide behind a random VT since even if most of the scum are PRs, that pool will be drawing all of the kills.

What we know:

JF is confirmed town

There is a JOAT
If a SK flips there are one or three scum in PRs
Above applies if two kills happen in one night
If it becomes likely there is no SK, there is zero or two fakeclaims

I would assume claims (removing JF) of being most likely town to scum would be
MS (role cop)
inte (tracker)
DJD (hider)
Near (doc)
other docs (doc)

JF most likely town but not 100%. Of course, if all of the doctors are town, then JF is 100% town. But it's possible that two of the doctors are scum with JF. I guess this is so unlikely. I am rather sure that DMS is town because he claimed after two doctors. Even if he thought that his scum partner could save him by claiming JK, it would be risky because there could be another JK. This would only work if DMS knew that JF was going to claim very last.

I should be on the top of the town list because I claimed after Bit who claimed doctor. If I am scum with Bit, Bit claiming doctor should have made me claim something like tracker. If Bit is town and I am scum, again, I would have claimed tracker or some sort. And for some reason I thought JK was T2, but I guess I *could* have faked that.

I don't know why you put the role cop on the top of the town list. Rolecop is not easily confirm-able. Obviously, he must target one of the VT, and most likely he would claim he got a negative result. While rolecop is not a safe role to claim from scum, at the time when MS claimed, there were only three players left to claim, and scum MS would have known that at least one of the towns would be JK. So with basically two players left to counter claim, fake claiming rolecop was not that of a risky move if scum. Still, he left bread crumbs, so I guess I believe him for now.

Tracker is easily the safest role to claim, but the fact that he

late

claimed T1 makes me think that he is town. Why else would scum change from VT to T1? (This thought is tentative and open for discussion).

Hider is also not easily confirm-able, thus I wouldn't put hider on top of the town list. And at this point, with one person left to claim (not counting obvious JK claim that was sure to come from scum's perspective), he could have claimed pretty much anything.

To me, the most likely (almost confirmed) towns are:
DMS, JF, and inte.

And then, in the increasing order or most likely scum, I would say:
MS
DJD
Bit

It is entirely possible that all of us are town, however.

[McStab]

Near, I was about to say that you came across as much townier than Bit and DMS, but that last post REALLY made me doubt you.

To begin with, if only two of the doctors are town, JF is 100% conf. town. It's largely a moot point, but just pointing out that that's the threshold by where we can confirm JF's claim. That's why DMS claiming as a doc in third position isn't anymore risky than the second doc claim - the second claim is the riskiest. Also, both mine and DMS' breadcrumbing may strengthen our claims, but it hardly confirms us. Smart scum and experienced scum can fake breadcrumb, and DMS is no newbie.

You being the second claim does help put you near the top of the list, I'll give you that.

Rolecop in most formats isn't easily confirmable, but in JK9++ it's certainly more confirmable. Either when the JOAT or an SK strongman kills me tonight and I flip Role Cop, or when I get an investigation result that doesn't matchup with the claim and we lynch scum, I'd say at that point I'm fairly confirmable.

Hider may not be easily confirm-able at this stage, but as scum PRs get outed I'm sure it'll be easier to confirm.

As for your list, DMS and inte are by NO means almost confirmed town. JF is for obvious reasons. DMS is leaning town but fake breadcrumbing and following along on a claim that the third player on a wagon would know is true (let's say you and Bit are town; he knows you aren't lying as town, and knows a JK must exist, therefore it's highly probable he'll claim doc as a safe fakeclaim). And inte claiming tracker is confirmable, but at this stage in the game he is by no means confirmed.

Finally, it really isn't possible that all of the PRs are town. If the mod came in and told us that 199 out of 200 possible times there would be a scum among the PR claims, we would ALWAYS lynch among the PR claims. There HAS to be scum in the PR pool.

BUT

You claimed doc in the riskiest position - 2nd. Assuming you and Bitmap are town, DMS had the easiest fakeclaim, since he knew a JK already existed and could only be counterclaimed by a fourth doc, in which case he still isn't in too much trouble. Bitmap also had a easy claim that can't very much be counterclaimed.

It's possible you took a gamble, but my prediction is that Bitmap is the scum out of the three docs, and if not him, DMS.

Vote:Bitmap

@NS, could we get a votecount when you have a chance? Thanks.

[drmyshotgun]

I like McStab's breadcrumb.
Did you come up with that yourself?

[McStab]

I was inspired by your breadcrumbing I observed in another one of your games, DMS.

[Rainbowdash]

How are you getting inte-town? I sorta want to lynch him.

His play after the claims is horrible and I dont think comes from a tracker since a trackers first thought would be "I can track the hider" not "here is a plan that fails on every possible level". Plus "two docs are scum" I dont think meshes with his previous reads and seems more like a fabrication to keep suspicion on the doctors allowing him lots of jumping around space on them, and if one flips scum ability to go right back to lynching out of them.

Role cop and hider are both town claims because they have to start clearing players or suicide on someone in the case of the role cop.

Vote inte

Case to come but just all of the play around roles makes me think scum.

@inte - How come you suddenly decided to check your role AFTER you claimed VT?
@MS - Near is almost for sure town because the way he reacted to my massclaim idea was a PR reacting to it.

[drmyshotgun]

Wait...McStab's breadcrumb is post 400 something? That's kinda late. :/

[drmyshotgun]

Inte looks just too out-there to be Scum...

[drmyshotgun]

I was inspired by your breadcrumbing I observed in another one of your games, DMS.

Err, shit, this isn't good.
I'll cease doing this.

[inte]

i honestly cannot answer that question, without repercussions zz.

shotty are you scum?

[drmyshotgun]

i honestly cannot answer that question, without repercussions zz.

shotty are you scum?

No you dumbshit.
Why would you even doubt me.

[Near]

McStab: Scum claiming third doctor is definitely risky, though not as risky as claiming second doctor. Even though scum DMS would have known that Jail Keeper exists because of town Bit and town Near doctor claim, it only takes another town doctor to easily put him at risky position. There could be max 3 doctors and with 4 people left to claim (technically 3, since 1 is JK), it is still risky. Much safer claim would have been a tracker, where even if another town tracker exists, he wouldn't be in trouble.

[McStab]

@RBD - Inte may be scum, but you know the math as well, and the probabilities of six PRs is barely any better; still less than 5% chance. I'm not lynching myself, Near seems town, Bitmap is more compelling to lynch than DMS when comparing the two, and JF is cleared. This leaves DJD or one of the docs, and as you say, a Hider is more of a town claim than a safe fakeclaim by Bitmap. Aside from that, we have ways of verifying inte; we can test his results. Because of the strongman kill and bus driving abilities, plus the high probability that the docs will all claim they guarded me or inte, the doc claim is largely untestable. Worst case scenario is we lynch a real Doc, hopefully get some sort of info from Night Actions on the remaining docs, and we can narrow down a fakeclaiming doc tomorrow. If the docs come up clean, DJD and inte then become prime suspects.

[McStab]

McStab: Scum claiming third doctor is definitely risky, though not as risky as claiming second doctor. Even though scum DMS would have known that Jail Keeper exists because of town Bit and town Near doctor claim, it only takes another town doctor to easily put him at risky position. There could be max 3 doctors and with 4 people left to claim (technically 3, since 1 is JK), it is still risky. Much safer claim would have been a tracker, where even if another town tracker exists, he wouldn't be in trouble.

That's a good point, but a counterclaim just puts him in a precarious position, not a auto-lynch position like the second claim. I still standby the idea that Bitmap has acted most suspiciously of the three and had the safest claim position though.

[drmyshotgun]

Would be funny if we start lynching all Docs and they all flip real.

[Rainbowdash]

Inte looks just too out-there to be Scum...

I think that what BK noticed is a really strong tell though. How does a town tracker forget that they can simply track the hider?

I can see scum forgetting that because they are not really a tracker so are trying to come up with some sort of a plan to look good, but you dont forget what your role actually does. It would be the same belieability of you going "well now JF is going to get killed - oh wait thats right I can protect him!".

That sort of thing doesnt slip your mind.

Also lol question dodge... cant answer "why I looked at my role?".

@MS - Problem is correct inte-scum play for tomorrow screws us over.

Im going to bed.

[McStab]

It would actually be pretty hilarious, if we got extraordinarily lucky and just drew 7 PRs, and we killed all of them while scum lurked in the VT pool.

[drmyshotgun]

Im going to bed soon, and inte is prob town anyway.

IM HIDER.

cleverly hidden

This strikes genuine.

[inte]

Inte looks just too out-there to be Scum...

I think that what BK noticed is a really strong tell though. How does a town tracker forget that they can simply track the hider?

I can see scum forgetting that because they are not really a tracker so are trying to come up with some sort of a plan to look good, but you dont forget what your role actually does. It would be the same belieability of you going "well now JF is going to get killed - oh wait thats right I can protect him!".

That sort of thing doesnt slip your mind.

Also lol question dodge... cant answer "why I looked at my role?".

@MS - Problem is correct inte-scum play for tomorrow screws us over.

Im going to bed.

... meh sometimes i get apathetic with games and get caught up in semantics

Im going to bed soon, and inte is prob town anyway.

IM HIDER.

cleverly hidden

This strikes genuine.

its what i thought

[BK201]

It would actually be pretty hilarious, if we got extraordinarily lucky and just drew 7 PRs, and we killed all of them while scum lurked in the VT pool.

lol.

I just want to say I agree Role Cop MS should be protected tonight in case he's real, but with a mass-claim its easy to get away with since you already know everyone's role. I do see the town motivation for a town Role Cop to want to mass-claim, but he is in my top 3 mostly by PoE.

3 potential scum out of the PRs
inte/bitmap/MS

Inte for whats been stated recently. Bitmap because Near is town and drm most likely is + Bitmap went first so Bit didn't know there would be two other docs. MS b/c of what I just said.

My gut tells me we could really only have 1 fake PR, idk the math at all though.

[Near]

I just don't see how scum would take back his VT claim to claim PR. I mean, for scum to do this, he must have had a plan to explain this. And his plan was to simply resort to "I was in too many games so I missed it"? There is no methodicalness characteristic of scum. And it couldn't have been because he wanted to save his scum partner from drowning with the doctor claim. So I believe inte.

Also, lynching one of the doctors actually does make sense in order for us to later determine the game-set up. If all 3 doctors are intact, this could potentially mean that we drew 4 or

more

P's. Hopefully Bit is scum, so we know there are 3 Ps (I don't think DMS is scum).