History Mafia Mini Theme - 1358 Game Over!

[DeasVail]

I'm really sorry. I won't have time for this tonight, but will definitely after uni tomorrow!

Please hold off on any lynching until then.

[Staeg]

Oh yeah.

unvote

don't want any fuzzy quickhammers before everyone's checked in.

[Bitmap]

I'll give my reads later today.

[MattP]

I'll say something today as well, sorry for going mini-MIA

[Nexus]

'History is the autobiography of a madman.' - Alexander Herzen

Votecount 2.1:

DCLXVI (4): Bitmap, MichelSableheart, IceGuy, ChaosOmega
IceGuy (1): DCLXVI

Not voting (5): DeasVail, MattP, scooby, Shamrock, Staeg

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Deadline is 10pm (BST) on the 14th August 2012

scooby has been prodded

[Bitmap]

Alright, I'm going to give some input on the 666 vote. I think it's a good wagon and something about his posting is off.

I find it extremely odd that he was one of the first two people to assume I was town when most people had gut reads of scum on me and they ended up dying and flipping town. It just seemed he had the innate knowledge that I was already town so that if I was to get lynched, he could look innocent. I saw this in one of my games where the scum buddies up one of the noob town in order to try to win their favor and vote.

Also, the miller claim was really off. Why would he claim it this early? And his strong pressure on Iceguy seems scummy.

[MattP]

Why would he claim it this early?

This is LATE to claim if anything.

My gut tells me that him waiting to claim it makes it true, but I am having difficulty voicing why.

I think that it's protown in that...I don't know, it just doesn't feel like scum would do this.

You know what, it's because miller is supposed to be claimed in your first post and it's too stupid not too, it's not calculating enough and it therefore comes from town.

[Shamrock]

Boy howdy it sure would be nice for this game's activity if DCL would, like, respond or something

[DCLXVI]

I find it extremely odd that he was one of the first two people to assume I was town when most people had gut reads of scum on me and they ended up dying and flipping town.

I wasn't the first person to call you town, as far as I remember. I first called you town after the whole sig thing, and that was after several other players called you town for it.


Anyway, I've been gone all day (spent 13 hours at an amusement park with friends.)

which is why I haven't been on MS all day.

I have to work tomorrow morning so going to bed now.

If you can wait till tomorrow afternoon I'll post more then.

[Shamrock]

hmm my #632 is more dickish than I meant it to be, sorry

[MichelSableheart]

@MattP: actually, I think beginning of day 2 is a very good moment for scum to claim miller. They still preempt a cop claim, while giving scumbuddies more room to hide. Also, the "it's stupid play so it doesn't come from scum" argument is bogus. Town have no reason to play stupid either. Making stupid plays is a player tell, not an alignement tell IMO. Also, scum can WIFOM (they'll never think I'll make this stupid play as scum).

[IceGuy]

I think that it's protown in that...I don't know, it just doesn't feel like scum would do this.

You know what, it's because miller is supposed to be claimed in your first post and it's too stupid not too, it's not calculating enough and it therefore comes from town.

I think he just feared a cop investigating him N1.

[DeasVail]

Hmm, why would DCL be more scared of a cop investigation after Night 1 than before Night 1?

Technically, I think it is more pro-scum for DCL to claim now, because of the possibility of a cop investigating him N1 (when with a D1 miller claim, that would not happen). However, I'm not sure that this is a good indication of DCL's alignment.

I do have a question for DCL though. Can you point me to any experience/reading that influenced your decision to claim on Day 2 as opposed to Day 1? Sorry if this has already been asked.

I will work out my reads this weekend, but at this time I'm not happy with lynching DCL.

[DCLXVI]

Just a heads up, I'm going to be gone again from 2pm-10pm us central time for work. Having two summer jobs kind of sucks, but it pays for college...

This is what I was able to get through, I was hoping to get through everything, but I'll post more when I'm done with work.

hmm my #632 is more dickish than I meant it to be, sorry

Don't worry, I didn't see it as bad, I should have said something about not being able to post yesterday. I can see why you would have been impatient.

666...

I don't understand why you would be sad to get NK'd as a miller.

A negative role. Why, then?

I never said I would be "sad" to be nightkilled as a miller. Please don't misrep me.

Oh yeah I forgot tO brag about being right about vash

Sooooo HAAAA I FUCKING TOLD YOU ALL

This is a multi-ball game. No towncred for catching scum unfortunately.

DCL could you briefly summarize why you think IceGuy is scum?

I've done that in my ISO. MULTIPLE TIMES, I really don't want to go and have to do it again. Requests for a "case" on ICE are getting kind of annoying as I feel I have already explained it.

I do like the DCL wagon.

I found his aggressive press on IceGuy at the end of D1 to be pretty scummy

and Michel raises a good point about the plausibility of his claim, not to mention that we lose little even if he is telling the truth. I also missed his reasoning on waiting until D2 to claim, which is bizarre and I'd love to hear an explanation of why scum would want to take out a miller (or were you worrying about being vigged?) as well as an explanation of his

scumread on IceGuy which

I don't buy at all and which

I haven't seen him explain anywhere

.

These two bold parts contradict each other.

In the first part, shamrock says he noticed my push on ICEguy and considered the push scummy. If he had paid enough attention to my push to notice it (and find it scummy) then he would have clearly noticed why I find ICEguy scummy. Yet he goes on to say he does not know why I suspect ICEguy.

I fully explained my scumread of ICEguy during my push on him day 1. To have shamrock claim he saw the push, and yet didn't see the case is a bunch of BS.

---------
Why I chose to claim day 2 instead of day 1:
-Claiming at the beginning just ends up in a quick auto-death a day-1 lynch or night 1 kill in which I end up not really doing much and being useless.
-I figured the odds of a pr getting off n2 were greater than one getting offed n1 so a later claim could potentially be better for taking attention away from town power roles.
-It also worked very nicely as a reaction test. I'll explain more later (I'm really running out of time right now) but one big thing that came out of this is that staeg is definately town because of how he reacted to my claim.

So basically I figured a later claim would be better because it would get more information for the town than a day 1 claim. It would better protect other power roles than claiming earlier and basically would let me be more useful in this role. I knew before deciding to do this that it isn't what's normally done, but I figured it was worth a try for the reason I've given.

Honestly, getting run up to L-1 was not what I expected from claiming. I didn't think everyone would believe it, but this still wasn't exactly what I was anticipating happening.

----------
why the claim does fit with the game.

One point that was brought, was that the flavor of it didn't make sense.

While player alignment may not be determined by the role name (joan of arc flipped scum) abilities still seem to be consistent with roleclaims (marco polo being a tracker)

So Julius Caeser being a miller doesn't seem inconsistant with the way the setup was designed.

Also I actually kind of breadcrumbed this info day 1.

Names definitely could have something to do with power.

-----------
Now to the existance of a miller in the setup.

Obviously we know that a tracker flipped. Which does make it seem unlikely for a miller, there are two reasons I think my role could have been put in for.

1. To cause uncertainty about the tracker claim. Nexus probably expected the miller to claim day 1 which would have made a tracker claim by quilford a little unbelievable. In other words, a miller was added to the setup to weaken the tracker role a little. Certainly a different way to do it but that seems to me to be the most likely possibility.

2. There is a cop in the setup. This seems op but could work if the SK was immune to track and if there is a godfather like role. Under those circumstances two investigation roles would not be OP, but I think the first explanation sounds more likely.

Ok, this is all I can say for now. I'll be back with more later.

[Staeg]

666, pretend that I'm retarded and walk me through your thought process.

Who would kill you N1 if you claimed D1? Did you expect to be lynched if you claimed D1 (provide examples of games where you've seen this happen), and if so, what would stop you from being lynched D2? What if a cop investigated you N1?

[Shamrock]

Ok, I looked through your ISO one more time. Is the post you are referring to?

OK, I get that you are saying it is a benefit risk decision.

The risk is obvious, the fact that you have claimed being a pr means you will be dead or role blocked tomorrow, I would be shocked if neither of those things happened.

I just can't see anything that could offset that risk.

What possible benefit could counter out that risk?

The answer is none,

which is why I just can't see you as town right now.

This seems like a totally bogus argument to base the entirety of your scumread on, which is why I assumed you had some other reason. As I already said:

Perhaps IceGuy's role is useless without knowing multiple rolenames. In this case, he has little to lose. Is it really that hard for you to imagine a role which requires knowledge of rolenames in order to be of reasonable utility?

So is there some other reason or is that it? Because I'm not buying that at all.

[Shamrock]

@Mod: V/LA from tomorrow until 8/11 but I think I should be able to at least post a couple times

[DeasVail]

I kind of think DCL is town.

Regarding Michel,

I think I have quite a decent scumread on him now. The main things are:

-There's the rolefishing accusation, when I feel that Michel never really considered whether scum would actually so blatantly rolefish and was instead just using it as fake scumhunting fuel. I find the following quote very unconvincing as well.

I know that I am terrible at finding powerroles as scum myself. I also don't have experience with scum rolefishing in the sense that I could not point to a particular post in a finished game and quote a scum quicktopic to prove that the player in question was clearly rolefishing. Still, there are various way in which you can enter a discussion regarding powerroles, and encouraging other players to give info away is not a pro-town one.

-I find 565, where Michel thinks he hammers McStab to be very scummy as well, with the way he presents a list of acceptable lynches and reasoning and his content before that. If he did indeed feel that time was running out, why would he not just say something along the lines of "Hey, let's lynch McStab because we're running out of time" rather than posting lots of stuff and presenting acceptable lynches, only to say "may as well hammer McStab" at the end when the opportunity appears to arise. The whole *hammering without a claim* thing affirms my belief that the hammer (or what he thought was one) appeared to be an attempt to distance from McStab and it doesn't match with his actual post (particularly the part suggesting there were multiple lynch options), which I feel was more of an attempt to look town than what would come from a townie.

~~

I also find Shamrock scummy for similar reasons as Day 1, but also his sudden support for a McStab lynch in 543 looks like it could be an attempt to distance. His accusation of me deflecting a McStab lynch, with no further mention, is scummy too.

[MichelSableheart]

-There's the rolefishing accusation, when I feel that Michel never really considered whether scum would actually so blatantly rolefish and was instead just using it as fake scumhunting fuel.

You do realize that the rolefishing accusation was made on page 2, when there is still relatively little information to go on, and any chance to get a discussion on who's scum started should be taken? Of course accusations will feel a bit forced there. I still believe that CO's is the most suspicious reaction to IceGuy's proposal because it seems intended to do setup speculation rather then determine whether the proposal was good, which is more likely to come from scum then from town IMO. If the conversation happened this way now, though, I probably would drop the word blatant and just call it rolefishing.

-I find 565, where Michel thinks he hammers McStab to be very scummy as well, with the way he presents a list of acceptable lynches and reasoning and his content before that. If he did indeed feel that time was running out, why would he not just say something along the lines of "Hey, let's lynch McStab because we're running out of time" rather than posting lots of stuff and presenting acceptable lynches, only to say "may as well hammer McStab" at the end when the opportunity appears to arise. The whole *hammering without a claim* thing affirms my belief that the hammer (or what he thought was one) appeared to be an attempt to distance from McStab and it doesn't match with his actual post (particularly the part suggesting there were multiple lynch options), which I feel was more of an attempt to look town than what would come from a townie.

I must admit that you are partially right with this accusation; the hammer does indeed not fit with the rest of the post. The L-1 was placed as I was writing. Originally, my post concluded that out of the viable bandwagons, McStab's was the largest, placed the L-1 vote, and called that we should make sure to get a lynch. On preview, I believed that L-1 had already been placed, so I edited the end of my post to reflect that. The fact that I was hammering became suddenly more important then why I chose McStab out of my acceptable lynches, which causes the discrepancy between the vote and the rest of my post you're noticing.

[DeasVail]

Regarding the first point, you're saying that my argument is made less valid by the fact that it was page 2, but your mention of it in your hammer post indicates a greater significance than what you imply in this latest post.

Onto the second, I realised that the L-1 vote must have occurred after you started your post, but the main things I find scummy (which probably weren't well expressed) are:

-Your presentation of acceptable lynches + reasoning (as well as other content), while prepared to commit to the McStab wagon when time was running out (which you were evidently aware of), seems a lot to me like scum trying to look pro-town, rather than town trying to organise getting a lynch. When town has decided to bring McStab to L-1, I don't expect them to give reasons for other scumreads as well, especially when McStab was obviously the leading wagon. I can easily see scum doing this however, in an effort to demonstrate town scumhunting.

[IceGuy]

Hmm, why would DCL be more scared of a cop investigation after Night 1 than before Night 1?

Because daycops are much less common than standard cops.

This is a multi-ball game.

How do you know that?

SCUMSLIP

Yes, I know two kills happened, but that could mean that there is a mafia and an SK, a mafia and a vig, and some other weird power role interactions. You claiming it's a multiball game after only one night of two kills reads like you know it from your role PM.

In the first part, shamrock says he noticed my push on ICEguy and considered the push scummy. If he had paid enough attention to my push to notice it (and find it scummy) then he would have clearly noticed why I find ICEguy scummy. Yet he goes on to say he does not know why I suspect ICEguy.

I fully explained my scumread of ICEguy during my push on him day 1. To have shamrock claim he saw the push, and yet didn't see the case is a bunch of BS.

That's not a contradiction. He saw the push but not the reason for it.

-Claiming at the beginning just ends up in a quick auto-death a day-1 lynch or night 1 kill in which I end up not really doing much and being useless.
-I figured the odds of a pr getting off n2 were greater than one getting offed n1 so a later claim could potentially be better for taking attention away from town power roles.
-It also worked very nicely as a reaction test. I'll explain more later (I'm really running out of time right now) but one big thing that came out of this is that staeg is definately town because of how he reacted to my claim.

Millers generally don't get lynched D1 and don't get killed N1 because a miller claim is both believable enough to not get lynched and attackable and essentially worthless enough to not get killed. On the other hand, claiming miller on D2 means a cop could've wasted an investigation on you N1.

One point that was brought, was that the flavor of it didn't make sense.

While player alignment may not be determined by the role name (joan of arc flipped scum) abilities still seem to be consistent with roleclaims (marco polo being a tracker)

So Julius Caeser being a miller doesn't seem inconsistant with the way the setup was designed.

Earlier you claimed this:

The flavor should be obvious to anyone with a middle school knowledge of history. Why I claimed is also fairly obvious. But I'll explain to make sure you get it.

Flavor, I'm viewed as a bad guy cause I got rid of the roman senate and made myself a dictator. But I actually saved Rome so in reality I'm a good guy , comprende?

Also I actually kind of breadcrumbed this info day 1.

Names definitely could have something to do with power.

That's not a breadcrumb.

[DeasVail]

Because daycops are much less common than standard cops.

I mean, why would he not be worried about being investigated at night until AFTER the night?

[IceGuy]

I mean, why would he not be worried about being investigated at night until AFTER the night?

Maybe scum doesn't have daytalk and he got coached? Maybe he didn't think of it before?

[DeasVail]

The 2nd point is possible, but I find the coaching thing unlikely considering his poor reasoning for claiming miller, and the risk of claiming it in the first place.

[Nexus]

scooby is being replaced.

ChaosOmega is being prodded.