History Mafia Mini Theme - 1358 Game Over!

[Jarvis]

There's a difference between a case growing and changing it completely.

Namely, in the former you don't completely discard unpopular parts of it and dodge questions from other players regarding them.

[DCLXVI]

But I'm not discarding the earlier part.

I still think ICE's day 1 play was scummy. I'm not discarding it so stop that bs accusation.

[Jarvis]

You seem to have dropped it since I questioned you on it - am I terribly wrong here? If not, why have you not deigned to respond?

[DCLXVI]

Oh please, I miss something or don't respond to it for what 4 hours and you start calling me scum for "discarding it"

your the one changing the case now.

Your going from accusing me of changing to discarding and now you are just saying I dropped it.

[DCLXVI]

I've got better things to do this evening than get into a shitty argument with someone who seems more intent on disproving everything I say than actually determining my alignment.

Post a link to whatever you want me to respond to, I'll do it tomorrow.

[ChaosOmega]

Claiming at the beginning just ends up in a quick auto-death a day-1 lynch or night 1 kill in which I end up not really doing much and being useless.

Why wouldn't you want to die again? Miller is a negative utility role. Your goal should have been to have been so pro-town, scum was forced to kill you N1 and hit a role that isn't helping town any. Instead, you claim it day 2, and right at the start of day 2. That was good timing for you. Worried someone investigated you overnight? I see no town benefit to claiming miller D2, but I do see scum benefit for doing so.

The whole multiball thing is dumb in general, but the 2 scum point IceGuy had is offensively stupid. DCLXVI's multiball comment was taken to mean "2+ scumteams" (which I would have done as well, that's what I use as the definition of multiball), then DCLXVI says in regards to that accusation you said two teams of two scum, and it's like you cracked the code. Why in the hell did you harp so much on the point that he said two teams of two scum when you didn't specify the number earlier? Feel free to go through the minis to find me a multiball setup that wasn't 2 teams of 2 scum. It looks like you're not scumhunting, just trying to make DCLXVI look bad.

Going to eat dinner, will make another post tonight. I'm going to reread and look at MichelSableheart and DeasVail more closely.

[Jarvis]

Apparently not. Way to add nothing to the discussion.

Oh please, I miss something or don't respond to it for what 4 hours and you start calling me scum for "discarding it"

your the one changing the case now.

Your going from accusing me of changing to discarding and now you are just saying I dropped it.

I dunno if you're trying to attack me or what.

You went full hands in the air with the town and quoted what you said was your comprehensive case. I responded to it, and you ignored the response. That was you dropping the case. You then quoted a different post as your case. That was you changing it.

I'm sorry, but that last bit. That's great. If you change your case, you get rid of part of it (read: discard) and replace it with something else. And I'm pretty sure dropping and discarding are the same thing.

Are you aware of how terribly contrived that sounds?

I've got better things to do this evening than get into a shitty argument with someone who seems more intent on disproving everything I say than actually determining my alignment.

Post a link to whatever you want me to respond to, I'll do it tomorrow.

Nice little snipe there. Are you trying to say that pointing out the gaping holes in your arguments is not of any value? I see you trying to deflect me.

#719
#735
#739

Have fun.

[DeasVail]

Can people please say what they think of Shamrock and Michel?

As in, if you think they're town, why?

If you think my reasoning for them being scum is bad, please tell me why.

[MattP]

BLARGH I really need to catch up on this

[DCLXVI]

Sorry, today was much busier than I expected it to be.

@Jarvis I'll respond to that by tomorrow evening. I know I'll have the time then.

[Nexus]

'We cannot escape history.' - Abraham Lincoln

Votecount 2.2:

DCLXVI (4): MichelSableheart, IceGuy, ChaosOmega, Jarvis
Shamrock (2): Staeg, DeasVail
IceGuy (1): DCLXVI

Not voting (3): Bitmap, MattP, Shamrock

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Deadline is 10pm (BST) on the 14th August 2012

Shamrock is v/la until the 11th August.

[DeasVail]

DCL:

How likely do you think it is that IceGuy will be lynched today?

[Staeg]

Not voting (3): Bitmap, MattP, Shamrock

What are these people doing

[IceGuy]

Can people please say what they think of Shamrock and Michel?

Michel is town. Shamrock is a compromise lynch I could get behind. Make a decent case in one post if you want more detail.

[ChaosOmega]

I'd be cool with a DeasVail lynch if DCLXVI doesn't go through.

His opening main post lists half the game as town reads for him, which I think is a weird position to have as town. He lists Vash/McStab as undecided, and says this about him:

My only real thought about him was that he could be town for trying to overcompensate for his inactivity. This would be scummy, except he actually had no pressure on him at all, so would he really be so ambitious as scum? How he loses steam and doesn't catch up properly seem a bit like town to me, but I'm not sure.

This reads an awful lot like you think he's town for having him in undecided. But it's a really waffly read. This way, you look like you gave him suspicion, but you weren't really supporting his lynch at all.

Still trying to figure out how to read the tiff you had with Quilford. Some lines just jump out at me. Like this one:

If I was admitting to lying, will you think I'm town?

Why did you ask that? And this one:

And townies never lie.

So this was serious?

Also, what would have been so scummy about voting for McStab at the time?

You read as concerned you can't lie. And then you take a strange aggressive stance towards the McStab thing. You didn't color his name the way you did with everyone else. I'll assume it was an accident for now. But then when you're questioned about it, you push that it's not a big deal. If that was true, why did your exchange with Quilford go on for that long?

Quilford was NK'd after this, but that's WIFOM and at best it's just odd it was right after this.

D2, we have your flip on DCLXVI:

I think the miller claim from DCL is bad, and I like the wagon, but am not joining it until I get the chance to read over things.

Technically, I think it is more pro-scum for DCL to claim now, because of the possibility of a cop investigating him N1 (when with a D1 miller claim, that would not happen). However, I'm not sure that this is a good indication of DCL's alignment.

I kind of think DCL is town.

There was no explanation in-between these posts in regards to your read shifting. Later on, you post this:

I'M OPPOSED TO A DCL LYNCH.

I have a weak town read on DCL, and am not super confident, but I think that I should try sharing why.

Overall, I just think his play has been too free(?) for scum, and I don't think he's that scummy really. If he was scum he probably would have talked over the possibility of claiming miller day 2 with a scum partner, but his flawed reasoning for it makes this somewhat unlikely. I don't think the miller claim makes DCL more town, but I don't find it particularly scummy either, and the rest of his posting gives me a weak town read.

Alright, some reasoning at least, cool. But this looks familiar...

I think that it's protown in that...I don't know, it just doesn't feel like scum would do this.

You know what, it's because miller is supposed to be claimed in your first post and it's too stupid not too, it's not calculating enough and it therefore comes from town.

Oh that's right, MattP said essentially the same thing 3 days earlier.

I had pretty obviously realised that McStab was the lynch barring a special claim/sudden towniness. I think I was pushing Shamrock before that, and I didn't oppose the McStab wagon because he was only a null-weak scum read and I thought that we could get a better read from him with few posts.

This just jumped out at me during my reread. You

think

you were pushing Shamrock before that? That reads like you weren't invested in the Shamrock lynch at all, you were just trying to push a mislynch you thought would garner support.

[Staeg]

Updated list of carpet-bombing: Shamrock, 666 - next tier - DV, michel, jarvis, bitmap.

[Bitmap]

I got lost along the way of the debate.

I'm actually against the 666 lynch since the claim seems genuine. We should lynch scum and not anti-town players. I'm going with MattP said here:

Why would he claim it this early?

This is LATE to claim if anything.

My gut tells me that him waiting to claim it makes it true, but I am having difficulty voicing why.

I think that it's protown in that...I don't know, it just doesn't feel like scum would do this.

You know what, it's because miller is supposed to be claimed in your first post and it's too stupid not too, it's not calculating enough and it therefore comes from town.

While it would of been beneficial for the miller to claim day 1, 666 might have just wanted to last longer than a day in order to help catch scum... or some shtick.

Anyways, been reading on the Jarvis vs DV debate and also Quilford vs DV in late Day 1 makes me believe that DV is perhaps scum. With that reaction vote (that I didn't know I even did), it lead to DV making a possible scum slip. And the Jarvis vs DV solidifies DV's scuminess more.

VOTE: DeasVail

[MichelSableheart]

But at least if we have an uncooperative SK he cuts off any hope of a vig fakeclaim, and we know what we're working with? We could always lynch the next day.

To be frank, I don't think I would believe a vig claim anyway. Neither amrun nor quilford were under any serious pressure, and the two of them struck me as extremely pro-town. With a mafia lynch day 1, an SK is likely to target town; a vig never is.

Can people please say what they think of Shamrock and Michel?

Shamrock hasn't really stood out to me, to be honest. He hasn't been noticable, but doesn't really feel lurking either. The only point I could mention against him is that Amrun, who was suspicious of him, was nightkilled. Why are you suspicious of him, again?

The latest posting by CO isn't bad. It looks like he's starting to put some effort in, and there seems to be actual reasoning in there. I might be getting wrongfooted a bit by mere length, and a conclusion with regards to DeasVail being scum or not is still missing, but it's definately better then it was day 1.

[Bitmap]

Also, doc should protect Jarvis tonight possibly.

[Staeg]

To be frank, I don't think I would believe a vig claim anyway. Neither amrun nor quilford were under any serious pressure, and the two of them struck me as extremely pro-town. With a mafia lynch day 1, an SK is likely to target town; a vig never is.

This is only half the reason why it's a SK and not a vig - he didn't go along with the carpet bombing plan. If there's still a vig on-site that tries to go superhero mode and hasn't proven himself as a scumhunter, well.

P-edit: what the fuck? No, what?

[Bitmap]

Umm okay then.

[MattP]

Staeg is non-scum and non-SK, as is Bitmap.

[MichelSableheart]

While it would of been beneficial for the miller to claim day 1, 666 might have just wanted to last longer than a day in order to help catch scum... or some shtick.

You do realize that surviving through the mafia nightkill is a BAD THING if you're a miller, right? The mafia nightkill hits a pro-town player anyway. Better that it hits a miller (which is a negative role) then a vanilla townie, or worse, a cop. Besides, surviving is generally more important for mafia then for town, especially in the early days. When a mafioso dies, mafia immediately lose 1/3th or even 1/2 of their number. A townie dying costs town only somewhere between 1/8-1/10th of their team. Trying to survive is therefore a mild scumtell, if anything.

---

If as town you get given the miller role, there are basically two options available to you. You can either decide to claim it immediately to avoid a wasted cop investigation and try to talk your way out of the suspicion that comes along with the claim, or you can decide to keep quiet, play as pro-town as possible to avoid the investigation and try to draw the mafia nightkill. From a town perspective, claiming miller day 2 is the worst you can do. It doesn't have the benefit of avoiding a wasted cop investigation that claiming immediately has, nor does it allow you to draw the nightkill from mafia that can happen if you keep shut till you are forced to claim.

From a mafia perspective however, there are definite benefits for claiming miller day 2 over claiming it day 1 or keeping shut till a cop investigation. You still avoid being nailed by a cop investigation as long as you claim miller before the cop claims. By allowing that cop to investigate you, you better protect your partners.

[Staeg]

If as town you get given the miller role, there are basically two options available to you. You can either decide to claim it immediately to avoid a wasted cop investigation and try to talk your way out of the suspicion that comes along with the claim, or you can decide to keep quiet, play as pro-town as possible to avoid the investigation and try to draw the mafia nightkill. From a town perspective, claiming miller day 2 is the worst you can do. It doesn't have the benefit of avoiding a wasted cop investigation that claiming immediately has, nor does it allow you to draw the nightkill from mafia that can happen if you keep shut till you are forced to claim.

Eeeeeh not quite
If you can get cop'd N1, you can get NK'd N1; you're arguing the right thing but for the wrong reasons

[Jarvis]

Can people please say what they think of Shamrock and Michel?

Shamrock is a massive pile of null, I never felt anything from his posts. And he hasn't posted in ages, but we'll get a prod soon I guess. Michel is more interesting because initial reads of his posts are solidly town, but then I get this nagging feeling he's being far too careful, so... I dunno, I still lean town.

DCL:

How likely do you think it is that IceGuy will be lynched today?

shhhh that's what I was getting at

Updated list of carpet-bombing: Shamrock, 666 - next tier - DV, michel, jarvis, bitmap.

Bitmap what.

Also the fuck I'm on the same level as DV. Where did CO go to?

Staeg is non-scum and non-SK, as is Bitmap.

Established. More scumreads necessary.

To be frank, I don't think I would believe a vig claim anyway. Neither amrun nor quilford were under any serious pressure, and the two of them struck me as extremely pro-town. With a mafia lynch day 1, an SK is likely to target town; a vig never is.

This is only half the reason why it's a SK and not a vig - he didn't go along with the carpet bombing plan. If there's still a vig on-site that tries to go superhero mode and hasn't proven himself as a scumhunter, well.

shhhh don't tell them that, you'll scare them into LONE RANGER MODE


This 666 wagon is destined to lurk around on the edge of a hammer for ever and ever. Not happening. Back to where I was before.

VOTE: DeasVail

There's a massive lack of opinions on DV. I want to hear them.