History Mafia Mini Theme - 1358 Game Over!

[MattP]

Would hammer but would also want to wait for michel and stuff to come in and stuff

You're not hammering, deasvail or MSH is

[ChaosOmega]

Holy shit I got run up to L-1 quick. Alright, MattP is right that I killed N1, I killed Amrun, she was my top scumread after Vash.

I'm an odd-night vigilante. Che Guevara. Grabbing dinner, will be back on in an hour or so.

[MattP]

Bullshit. Anyone can hammer that was the worst fake claim ever

[Staeg]

Would hammer but would also want to wait for michel and stuff to come in and stuff

You're not hammering, deasvail or MSH is

Bullshit. Anyone can hammer that was the worst fake claim ever

What's the line of thought here? (this is here for tomorrow in case you're alive - don't answer now)

I'm still waiting for some people to get here before hammering.

[ChaosOmega]

(Was gonna go out, made a TV dinner instead)

It's not bullshit. Whatever, I'm under a lot of suspicion this game, I probably shouldn't be around in lylo. Lynch someone else scummy (like DeasVail) and I'll shoot myself tonight. It'll give the town two lynches in effect.

[Jarvis]

You can shoot yourself?

VOTE: DeasVail

I'd rather lynch DV/shamrock, have CO shoot the other, and then lynch CO. Should be good then.

[MattP]

Staeg there's no point in waiting. I didn't expect staeg to practically claim scum. He coincidentally is an odd night vig when I roleblocked him on an even night, bullshit. He admits as town he targeted amrun. I would have not taken it as a scum claim if he had claimed a non kill role

Pedit: we can direct chaos that's actually a good idea

[MattP]

Expect chaos*

[ChaosOmega]

That's fine, you can direct me, too. Whatever the majority wants. And yeah, that's just bad luck with roleblocking me on an even night and jumping to the conclusion you blocked a kill.

[MattP]

Ok fine, I vote Shamrock.

[MattP]

VOTE: DeasVail

[Shamrock]

You can shoot yourself?

VOTE: DeasVail

I'd rather lynch DV/shamrock, have CO shoot the other, and then lynch CO. Should be good then.

This seems like a decent plan, should wait for Michel to check in though

[Staeg]

Matt, why am I confirmed non-scum?

[MattP]

Matt, why am I confirmed non-scum?

I'm claiming tomorrow, or you'll see when I flip.

[MattP]

All right, CO actually did have amrun in his scumreads.

[Bitmap]

UNVOTE:

[DeasVail]

And you have DCLXVI as a weak townread. You wouldn't list both your partners like that, would you?

This is the answer to that question of yours.

Also, I'm not scum, so er... don't lynch me?

[MichelSableheart]

Yes 666, the miller claim was definately a bad idea. Pro-town players shouldn't lie, if only for what happens when they're caught lying.

I would like a mass genderclaim given IceGuy's flip. Since Che Guevara is male, I think CO should start the popcorn.

---

I think we can be reasonably sure that IceGuy wasn't a vig kill (if only because such a vig should have counterclaimed CO). We can also be reasonably sure that CO isn't a member of the group that killed Quilford and IceGuy. So either CO is indeed an odd-night vig, or we have 2 scumgroups, one of which has CO as a member, when the other killed Quilford and IceGuy. Since McStab flipped mafia goon (rather then having a family name), we can be reasonably sure that if there are 2 scumgroups, one of those scumgroups is SK. The setup seems rather hostile for an SK though. Both the tracker and MattP's roleblock would be able to catch him. Such an SK would need to be either ninja or strongman, and at least 1 shot bulletproof, against a vanilla mafia team. Probably 9 - 3 - 1 then, 10 - 3 if CO is odd-night vig.

If CO is odd-night vig, leaving him alive is obviously correct. We would end up in odds again, with a lynch, CO's nightkill and the mafia nightkill bringing us to 5 player LyLo worst case.

However, if CO is SK or mafia, he has plays available to him that would make him effectively unlynchable if we don't lynch him today and if we fail to lynch scum today. I would rather not expand in case he hasn't realized them, but he could become virtually impossible to get rid of if we don't lynch him today.

Vote: ChaosOmega

---

DV's reactions at the end of day 1 seem typical discussing a compromise lynch that he's not entirely happy with. I could see scum giving that behaviour towards a partner, but I could very easily see that behaviour come from town as well.

Please elaborate on that.

Not going expand on how that behaviour could come from scum, as you were pushing that as well. How it could come from town: At the end of day 1, DV was pushing for the lynches of either me or Shamrock. When the McStab lynch was mentioned, he called it an ok lynch, said he was willing to vote, but never voted. This is exactly the behaviour I would expect if he as town had a null read on McStab. You would be willing to vote McStab to guarantee a lynch at deadline, but simultaneously you don't really expect him to be scum. So your vote would only come reluctantly, and only when forced by deadline. You would continue pressing other bandwagons, hoping to get a lynch on someone you do have a scumread on, but you don't actively fight the McStab wagon because you don't have a townread there either. That's the behaviour I expect from a townplayer with a nullread on McStab, and that's exactly what I see DV doing.

[DeasVail]

Michel is actually right about CO.

MattP:

How likely do you think it that CO is SK?

[DeasVail]

I'm going to try an clarify my reads so you can at least consider them if I am lynched, but this is pretty much exactly what I'd do here as scum, so if you think it's a towntell, you're probably wrong. I could even be saying that last bit just to make you think I'm town, or maybe I'm actually town because of it.

Or maybe all this confusion is just me attempting to do something as scum that will make you all go "Surely scum wouldn't act like that!"

Or maybe I'm actually town.

Eh, your choice.

Anyway,

Bitmap-

Probably town, but:

Q's:

What made you so confident that the lynch was off after the hammer? What is your current read of me?

ChaosOmega-

I think it's unlikely that Chaos is mafia at this stage, but I do think SK is possible. I don't have a confident read on him though. Perhaps leaning town.

Q:

How confident are you in your read of me?

Jarvis-

His response to the jokes seems too negative and over-the top. I don't think his null-read of shamrock is that likely from town. I think his explanation for voting me instead of DCL here could be contrived. I do find some of his play a bit like town though, so maybe a leaning scumread. I may have more to say later.

Q:

Would you say your suspicion of me has remained quite consistent, or has it wavered?

MattP-

I

think

he's town.

Michel-

He's a scumread because of what I said in 642 and 644. I haven't really found him that scummy recently though, so the scumread is probably a little weaker, but I still have him as more likely scum than others.

Shamrock-

-Early careful play, outlined in 382
-Lack of attempt to improve his read on amrun/encourage others to vote for her, instead changing his vote, despite having a strong scumread on her. Note that I don't agree completely with what I said about this in the above linked post anymore.
-In 543, he says he feels good about a mcstab lynch and provides reasoning. The reasoning just seems unnecessary here and possibly like an attempt to distance.
-Also, his comment on my behaviour around the McStab wagon in 598 has no follow-up until I actually became a popular lynch target.

Staeg-

Town?

Vote: Shamrock

[MattP]

MattP: How likely do you think it that CO is SK?

Not guaranteed, I roleblocked him last night and no kill went through. There were a lot of reasons no kill could have went through, but I tunneled him on it for a reaction, and when he ended up claiming a kill role that was only active on odd days it felt fake. However, he's letting us direct his kill so he should live tonight. I don't think he should live past tomorrow.

[MattP]

I will partial claim. I gunsmithed Staeg N1 and roleblocked CO N2. I will not reveal what other abilities I have, if I have any.

[Shamrock]

-Early careful play, outlined in 382

I have already explained that this was because this game was the first game of forum mafia I have played in years and I couldn't quite remember what I was doing.

-Lack of attempt to improve his read on amrun/encourage others to vote for her, instead changing his vote, despite having a strong scumread on her. Note that I don't agree completely with what I said about this in the above linked post anymore.

So I should sit on a wagon that isn't going anywhere, and which I have exhausted my arguments for, just because it's my #1 suspect? Do you not understand what "compromise" is?

-In 543, he says he feels good about a mcstab lynch and provides reasoning. The reasoning just seems unnecessary here and possibly like an attempt to distance.

Uhhhh, or maybe I was providing reasoning that time because previously people (i.e. YOU) had attacked me for voting Vash without good reason (supposedly to distract from the wagon on me/the collapsed wagon on Amrun, when in fact I did think the Vash wagon was worthwhile, I just hadn't explained why I thought that). So first it was scummy that I was voting Vash without a reason, but now it's scummy that I was voting him WITH a reason? Make up your mind.

Oh, but wait, I see you've decided you don't agree with your earlier reasoning anymore, giving you the ability to use whatever argument is closest at hand to call me scum. That's convenient.

-Also, his comment on my behaviour around the McStab wagon in 598 has no follow-up until I actually became a popular lynch target.

Uhhhh, maybe because

• nobody else seemed to care much about it and I didn't want to be a broken record
  
• the DCL wagon was starting and I thought he was pretty scummy and worth investigating so I didn't want to distract from that
  
• I went V/LA three days after posting it?

--

I think we are all agreed at this point that CO is vig or SK, right? And, if there is a SK in this setup, it must be CO.

Although I think DV is likely mafia, it seems that lynching CO might actually be the safer choice for today, as per Michel's points. (I don't see the harm on expanding on this. All of this would be obvious to CO SK if he took thirty seconds to think about it.)

Lynching CO today guarantees a 6p mylo tomorrow (barring the nightkill being blocked or whatever).

If we lynch DV (or someone else) and he flips scum, tomorrow we are either in a 1-1-3 lylo (if CO is SK) or are not in lylo at all (if CO is vig).

If we lynch DV and he flips town, and CO is vig, we are in 5p lylo tomorrow after his shot. BUT, if CO is SK, we are put in a near-impossible situation even if we lynch scum tomorrow. Furthermore, we really have no good way (short of an unrevealed investigation) of knowing whether CO is SK or vig, and thus from knowing which situation we are in.

I think a CO lynch is likely the optimal move here but I want to think about it a little more to make sure there is not something I'm missing.

Unvote

[Shamrock]

MattP: How likely do you think it that CO is SK?

Not guaranteed, I roleblocked him last night and no kill went through. There were a lot of reasons no kill could have went through, but I tunneled him on it for a reaction, and when he ended up claiming a kill role that was only active on odd days it felt fake. However, he's letting us direct his kill so he should live tonight. I don't think he should live past tomorrow.

The problem with this is that, as I point out above, if he is SK and we do not lynch scum today, we probably lose.

[MattP]

To respond to MSH's speculation, if CO is SK the SK is probably a male to avoid the gender cop and I couldn't target him with my gunsmith ability since SKs don't have guns, which is why I only said D2 that Staeg was confirmed non-SCUM:

Staeg is

So SK is immune to investigative roles.

On top of that my RB ability was 1-shot, so he could only be targeted by tracker and by me once.

Staeg is now CONFIRMED town since I claimed him non-scum and CO claimed the second kill role. Funny that you put it as a weird maybe with no description, DV.

pedit: Ok, let me go through the numbers.