History Mafia Mini Theme - 1358 Game Over!

[Bitmap]

I thought about shooting Bitmap because I felt he was being fairly useless for town, but everyone was saying he was conf-town pretty much, so I went with Amrun.

I think a lot of people are bummed out about hearing this.

[MattP]

I thought about shooting Bitmap because I felt he was being fairly useless for town, but everyone was saying he was conf-town pretty much, so I went with Amrun.

I think a lot of people are bummed out about hearing this.

Yea that quote btw pretty much confirms co as SK or VI

[ChaosOmega]

I'm a VI because I didn't shoot a player as vig that people thought was town?

[MattP]

No you're a village idiot for considering shooting a player because "they're useless"

[Staeg]

No you're a village idiot for considering shooting a player because "they're useless"

Nnnnot really
A bitmap shot would have been potentially better than an amrun shot

Anyway, I've got nothing. Can we have CO shoot himself tonight to avoid BP scum shenanigans? It'll work out the same was as if we lynched DV today, shot sham and lynched CO tomorrow but without the risk

[Shamrock]

So...

DV lynch now?

VOTE: DeasVail

[MattP]

VOTE: DeasVail

[Shamrock]

Oh yeah, if I'm dying tonight, I wanted to point out how much this...

-There's the rolefishing accusation, when I feel that Michel never really considered whether scum would actually so blatantly rolefish and was instead just using it as fake scumhunting fuel.

You do realize that the rolefishing accusation was made on page 2, when there is still relatively little information to go on, and any chance to get a discussion on who's scum started should be taken? Of course accusations will feel a bit forced there. I still believe that CO's is the most suspicious reaction to IceGuy's proposal because it seems intended to do setup speculation rather then determine whether the proposal was good, which is more likely to come from scum then from town IMO. If the conversation happened this way now, though, I probably would drop the word blatant and just call it rolefishing.

-I find 565, where Michel thinks he hammers McStab to be very scummy as well, with the way he presents a list of acceptable lynches and reasoning and his content before that. If he did indeed feel that time was running out, why would he not just say something along the lines of "Hey, let's lynch McStab because we're running out of time" rather than posting lots of stuff and presenting acceptable lynches, only to say "may as well hammer McStab" at the end when the opportunity appears to arise. The whole *hammering without a claim* thing affirms my belief that the hammer (or what he thought was one) appeared to be an attempt to distance from McStab and it doesn't match with his actual post (particularly the part suggesting there were multiple lynch options), which I feel was more of an attempt to look town than what would come from a townie.

I must admit that you are partially right with this accusation; the hammer does indeed not fit with the rest of the post. The L-1 was placed as I was writing. Originally, my post concluded that out of the viable bandwagons, McStab's was the largest, placed the L-1 vote, and called that we should make sure to get a lynch. On preview, I believed that L-1 had already been placed, so I edited the end of my post to reflect that. The fact that I was hammering became suddenly more important then why I chose McStab out of my acceptable lynches, which causes the discrepancy between the vote and the rest of my post you're noticing.

... feels like a planned/manufactured exchange to me and that MSH/DV are probably scumteam.

Of course it would be better if I didn't die, because I'm town, but... what're you gonna do.

[Staeg]

Anyway, I've got nothing. Can we have CO shoot himself tonight to avoid BP scum shenanigans? It'll work out the same was as if we lynched DV today, shot sham and lynched CO tomorrow but without the risk

So...

DV lynch now?

VOTE: DeasVail

CAN WE AGREE ON SOMETHING PLEASE

[DeasVail]

If I'm town, is there anything I should be doing now?

[Shamrock]

Argleblargleblargle you're right

Unvote

If CO is going to shoot himself he should PM Nexus first to make sure it's allowed so that there's no "I didn't realize I couldn't do it" bullshit tomorrow.

[Shamrock]

Also I agree that it's a good idea in that it means me not dying tonight. (And, more seriously, it removes all ambiguity from CO's position. If he refuses to do it, he's basically claiming SK, whereas if he shoots me, we don't definitively know if he's vig or SK. I like this plan.)

[ChaosOmega]

Yeah, no shit you like this plan, it means you don't die.

If I'm town, is there anything I should be doing now?

Just run along and get the noose ready.

I'll PM Nexus now and make sure I can, but my role PM doesn't specify that I can't.

If we're worried about Shamrock being bulletproof, couldn't we force him to claim bulletproof or not, and if not, I try to shoot him tonight, if it fails, we lynch him for lying?

Also, speaking of MSH sounding manufactured:

I would like a mass genderclaim given IceGuy's flip. Since Che Guevara is male, I think CO should start the popcorn.

I think we can be reasonably sure that IceGuy wasn't a vig kill (if only because such a vig should have counterclaimed CO). We can also be reasonably sure that CO isn't a member of the group that killed Quilford and IceGuy. So either CO is indeed an odd-night vig, or we have 2 scumgroups, one of which has CO as a member, when the other killed Quilford and IceGuy. Since McStab flipped mafia goon (rather then having a family name), we can be reasonably sure that if there are 2 scumgroups, one of those scumgroups is SK. The setup seems rather hostile for an SK though. Both the tracker and MattP's roleblock would be able to catch him. Such an SK would need to be either ninja or strongman, and at least 1 shot bulletproof, against a vanilla mafia team. Probably 9 - 3 - 1 then, 10 - 3 if CO is odd-night vig.

If CO is odd-night vig, leaving him alive is obviously correct. We would end up in odds again, with a lynch, CO's nightkill and the mafia nightkill bringing us to 5 player LyLo worst case.

However, if CO is SK or mafia, he has plays available to him that would make him effectively unlynchable if we don't lynch him today and if we fail to lynch scum today. I would rather not expand in case he hasn't realized them, but he could become virtually impossible to get rid of if we don't lynch him today.

First off, the mass gender-claim is pretty worthless now, since the gender cop is dead. Looks like you're just trying to fake being pro-town.

Your first paragraph makes points to suggest I am an odd-night vig, namely that McStab flipped without a family name (i.e., one mafia group) and that the setup seems very rough for a SK (which I don't necessarily agree with, but that's not really the point for right now).

And then you go on to say if I'm mafia or SK, I can screw the town and make myself unlynchable. First off, I'd have to be pretty fucking retarded to claim that as mafia there. There's not 2 families from what you worked out, so you're saying as mafia, I'm claiming a kill I didn't commit (to cover for the vig or SK kill). The vig would have counterclaimed me to hell, but better yet, what the fuck motivation do I have as mafia to claim that?

It just reads like you wanna put forward why I could be town, but then tack on some bullshit to lynch me.

To be fair, if no scum are killed between now and the start of D4 and I'm a SK, I do have a good bit more control of the game, so I understand you guys wanting me to kill myself. I'm just worried I'm gonna get RB'd by scum. If DV flips town, they kill a townie and block me, D4 comes and it shows I haven't died, so you quicklynch me, and then they kill another townie, it's 2-2 and mafia win.

[Staeg]

If we're worried about Shamrock being bulletproof, couldn't we force him to claim bulletproof or not, and if not, I try to shoot him tonight, if it fails, we lynch him for lying?

The problem here is that we can't know which one of you is lying (you could no-kill and go wah wah bulletproof).
I do believe that there is no way CO is leaving tomorrow alive and if I die you better mark my words.

[ChaosOmega]

I understand that, I'm just saying town could be in a really shitty spot come tomorrow.

[Shamrock]

Do we have any reason to think there is a scum RB in this game? This is modguessing, but from the roles that have flipped/claimed so far the town power level doesn't seem terribly high.

If we are absolutely definitely 5000% lynching ChaosOmega if he's alive tomorrow then I don't really see any reason for him not to kill himself tonight if he is protown.

[DeasVail]

Can we seriously lynch shamrock today?

[Shamrock]

no

[MichelSableheart]

If the quilford/Iceguy kills were done by mafia, that would leave at most 1 mafioso on whom Matt could find a gun (since those kills were made by kniving). That seems like a very low amount to include a 1 shot (?) gunsmith. MattP's gunsmith ability effectively rules out CO as SK, because an investigative role that would hit SK but misses most of the mafia is ridiculous. Odd night vig also becomes significantly less likely, because the gunsmith wouldn't get enough accurate results. CO mafia would fit though, in which case McStab effectively was a godfather against Matt's gunsmith.

That would require the Quilford/Iceguy kills to have come from a Serial Killer, but that's not completely out of the question. After a mafia lynch day 1, an SK wants to go after town more, because he needs mafia to wind down town's numbers. And before the flip, it wasn't really clear what info Iceguy had exactly.

MattP, you better start thinking the situation through. Read the kill flavour, then come back. Your conclusions don't match the actual situation and your results. In fact, why haven't you payed any attention to the Modus Operandi of the kills when you are a gunsmith? Did you actually think about your role and what it means?

Michael, why would a gender reveal be useful now?

Iceguy was a gender cop, so appearantly the gender of each character is interesting information for town. At the least, it should give us some information on the setup. I don't really see any way in which having the info in the open can harm the town, so a mass genderclaim is a good idea IMO.

---

@CO: I'm trying to make sense of the current situation. There's a complicated claim, with all sorts of weird interactions. I want to think things through carefully, which is why I'm writing my conclusions down, so that they can be critisized if I'm making mistakes. Note that the conclusions of my first paragraph are that an SK would need to have certain powers, not that there's no SK in the game.

As noted above, the possibility that you are mafia has been woefully underexplored. The situation that you are mafia who killed Amrun night 1 and was blocked by MattP night 2 makes perfect sense to me. Quilford/Iceguy are not unlogical kills for an SK after mafia has been lynched day 1.

Simply put, my conclusion there was that it could be that you were odd-night vig, but the risk if we left you alive was simply too big. Matt's gunsmith claim changed that, though.

---

@Everyone: Please consider very carefully what incentive CO scum has to follow our directions before choosing not to lynch him today.

[DeasVail]

Hmm, he doesn't comment on the wagon on me at all.

[ChaosOmega]

Nexus responded to me, he said I can't use my night ability to shoot myself.

[Jarvis]

I dunno I find it kinda odd that you stated that before without even thinking to question it.

Michel is grasping at straws to get this CO lynch and gender reveal and I can't help but wonder why.

[Staeg]

Iceguy was a gender cop, so appearantly the gender of each character is interesting information for town. At the least, it should give us some information on the setup. I don't really see any way in which having the info in the open can harm the town, so a mass genderclaim is a good idea IMO.

This might actually be a good idea now that I think of it (no, not revealing why, would ruin everything).

[Jarvis]

Actually I have a theory about some stuff so maybe. Idk if Staeg has the same idea but since CO hasn't bothered, I'll start stuff off.

Male, popcorn DV.

[DeasVail]

Umm, I've already claimed, but

male

just because I'm such a nice townie.

Popcorn Shamrock

What I want to know is, why didn't Michel start things off he wanted it?

Also, I'll ask again, can we please lynch Shamrock instead of me? I'll offer you all special in-game favours?