History Mafia Mini Theme - 1358 Game Over!

[MattP]

Uhhhh if it's 2-2-1 doesn't the mafia win when he is lynched? Am I missing something?

^This actually

[Staeg]

Yeah, exactly. That is what happens when he is SK/town and we lynch town today, CO shoots town at night and tomorrow we lynch CO. It's unlikely to happen.

[Shamrock]

Right, so in that situation we'd have to ignore CO and instead lynch mafia (unless CO is mafia, but this still seems farfetched to me), and then pray that one of them kills the other N4.

OTOH if we lynch CO today we remove all the ambiguity from our position but we have to win a 4-2 and then a 3-1 (or a no lynch into a 3-2 and a 2-1).

--

From my perspective, I think DeasVail is the correct lynch. I know I'm town, and I know that if we lynch CO today then I may well end up getting mislynched, in which case we lose. If DV flips town, and I die to CO tonight, then we do have a problem if CO is an SK... but CO is forced to work with us to lynch scum regardless of his alignment, so we at least have something of a shot.

[Staeg]

Right, so in that situation we'd have to ignore CO and instead lynch mafia (unless CO is mafia, but this still seems farfetched to me), and then pray that one of them kills the other N4.

OTOH if we lynch CO today we remove all the ambiguity from our position but we have to win a 4-2 and then a 3-1 (or a no lynch into a 3-2 and a 2-1).

--

From my perspective, I think DeasVail is the correct lynch. I know I'm town, and I know that if we lynch CO today then I may well end up getting mislynched, in which case we lose. If DV flips town, and I die to CO tonight, then we do have a problem if CO is an SK... but CO is forced to work with us to lynch scum regardless of his alignment, so we at least have something of a shot.

No, see, I described worst case scenarios.
There's the best case scenario (we lynch scum, CO shoots scum, we lynch CO if game not won) but nobody cares about those.

[Bitmap]

I think that CO is most likely an odd night vig. If there was an SK in this setup, the SK should be able to kill every day imo.

We should lynch either DV or Micheal and have CO shoot the other from what everyone is saying.

[Staeg]

I think that CO is most likely an odd night vig. If there was an SK in this setup, the SK should be able to kill every day imo.

ಠ_ಠ

[Shamrock]

Bitmap pay attention Matt roleblocked him last night.

I agree, lynch DV, nightkill MSH, hope for the best, lynch CO tomorrow.

[Staeg]

Bitmap, just ftr - why MSH/DV not sham?

[Bitmap]

Bitmap pay attention Matt roleblocked him last night.

I agree, lynch DV, nightkill MSH, hope for the best, lynch CO tomorrow.

I read that. But that tells us if CO is an SK, he doesn't have Strongman perk.

[Shamrock]

For anyone who thinks I should be the nightkill over MSH, can I ask why?

[DeasVail]

Two concerns:

1. How has shamrock negotiated into not having himself die? (And what can I do to achieve a similar outcome?)

2. Why does Michel think CO could possibly be part of a three-man scumteam?

[MattP]

No, we actually should be doing this:

VOTE: CO

I changed my mind.

[MattP]

If scum has a RBer they will WIFOM the shit out of us if DV flips town.

[Staeg]

Matt, arguing. "changed my mind" doesn't cut it even for conftown

[MattP]

If scum has a RBer they will WIFOM the shit out of us if DV flips town.

[MattP]

Think about it. DV town, scum RB CO and kill him, now we don't know if it was Sham trying to prevent his kill or not. WIFOMed the fuck out of us, we will be in lylo, horrible position.

[Jarvis]

@Mod: Can we get a vote count? Also, first post needs updating.

Seeing as the alternative to where we're going now is lynching CO and finding ourselves at 4:2, I dunno. That's not too nice a situation.

If CO finds himself roleblocked, we're still at 4:2 or 3:2:1 after a mislynch, and an SK would have to townside at that point anyway, so we lose nothing there. And I don't really see the benefit to him of going against the town's orders tonight.

Also, Matt, if DV flips town, scumteam is Shamrock/Michel anyway. So yeah they would be. But considering that means leaving themselves alive with all four of the obvtown-townies, I don't think that's too likely.

But DV's incredi-likely scum, so we don't even really need to worry about all that.

[MattP]

Iceguy never breadcrumbed an inno or guilty read. I assume he had enough common sense to know that female = scum. He was probably RBd N1 and N2. I'd bet scum has a RB'er. I feel pretty confident that DV is scum but tomorrow will suck if:

A) we are in a potential 2-2-1
B) scum WIFOM us and kill CO

CO should be the death today.

pedit: I have been looking through DVs meta and he is always a strong lynch candidate as town.

[Jarvis]

Tomorrow will suck if we're in 4:2 and have to work out which of DV, shamrock and Michel is town. I'm not worried about CO dying tonight. Nor particularly ending up in 2:2:1 tomorrow.

[Shamrock]

I agree with Jarvis. I don't see how CO dying tonight is a big deal.

[MattP]

Jarvis, if DV is scum who is his partner?

[DeasVail]

We should be killing Shamrock!!!!

[Jarvis]

Jarvis, if DV is scum who is his partner?

Shamrock/Michel obv. I think I'm leaning towards Michel but we'll have plenty of time to find out anyway. Shamrock's flip should determine things.

[Jarvis]

But for a solid answer, Michel, because DV/Shamrock would have quit the silly distancing by now and realised that they're fucked if CO doesn't die today.

[Staeg]

Think about it. DV town, scum RB CO and kill him, now we don't know if it was Sham trying to prevent his kill or not. WIFOMed the fuck out of us, we will be in lylo, horrible position.

Uh, what if we lynch CO and he's town? It's literally the same thing tomorrow if we lynched DV and CO got killed minus the WIFOM (which is easily ignored). What if CO is a bulletproof SK?

Anyway, CO dying is only beneficial to us. Scum have 3 confirmed town to plow through. I just don't see "WIFOM" as a good argument for CO being lynched today.