History Mafia Mini Theme - 1358 Game Over!

[MattP]

But for a solid answer, Michel, because DV/Shamrock would have quit the silly distancing by now and realised that they're fucked if CO doesn't die today.

Think about it. DV town, scum RB CO and kill him, now we don't know if it was Sham trying to prevent his kill or not. WIFOMed the fuck out of us, we will be in lylo, horrible position.

Uh, what if we lynch CO and he's town? It's literally the same thing tomorrow if we lynched DV and CO got killed minus the WIFOM (which is easily ignored). What if CO is a bulletproof SK?

Anyway, CO dying is only beneficial to us. Scum have 3 confirmed town to plow through. I just don't see "WIFOM" as a good argument for CO being lynched today.

I think we're in a pretty shitty position regardless. I thought over is and I want the following to happen:

Lynch DV

CO shoots MSH

Lynch Sham tomorrow.

I think MSH is scum over Sham. Sham and Vash don't fit as well as buddies and MSH makes a lot of "look at me, I'm town!" posts.

Can we agree on CO targeting MSH tonight?

[Nexus]

'History is the story of events, with praise or blame.' - Cotton Mather

Votecount 3.2:

DeasVail (2): ChaosOmega, Jarvis
ChaosOmega (2): MichelSableheart, MattP
Shamrock (1): DeasVail

Not voting (3): Bitmap, Shamrock, Staeg

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends at 8am on August 28th 2012..

[Staeg]

Okay, well, let's not rush it; I'll do stuff over the weekend and come to a decision.

[Shamrock]

Is there any point to holding off on this?

VOTE: DeasVail

[Jarvis]

Can we agree on CO targeting MSH tonight?

Yeah, alright.

[MichelSableheart]

Given Matt's claim, CO is mafia, because Matt's gunsmith doesn't make sense if mafia killed Quilford and Iceguy with knives.

The problem with a 2:2:1 tomorrow is that we must lynch mafia, and then can only win if there's crosskills. If an SK has any form of bulletproof, he can simply try to nightkill town if we mislynch today, and we'll have to hope that he'll accidentally hit mafia. By lynching CO, we can guarantee to avoid that scenario. DeasVail is far less of a certainty.

[Staeg]

Given Matt's claim, CO is mafia, because Matt's gunsmith doesn't make sense if mafia killed Quilford and Iceguy with knives.

This is actually correct.

Alright, we're going to probably lynch CO, but if anyone hammers before I give the green light, it's a scumclaim (also don't leave the dude at L-1 due to selfhammers).

[Jarvis]

Given Matt's claim, CO is mafia, because Matt's gunsmith doesn't make sense if mafia killed Quilford and Iceguy with knives.

Matt roleblocked CO, there was no "mown down" kill. CO confessed to being the source of these kills. The gunsmith doesn't even come into this.

Also I don't recall Matt ever clarifying whether he was a literal gunsmith or some flavour-variable-smith.

CO being blocked mafia would mean Quilford and IceGuy are SK kills and the mafia killed Amrun. Really?

Also no knife was mentioned in IceGuy's death scene, if you want to get all deep into flavour. Where did you get that impression?

[DeasVail]

Yeah, only Matt can know whether his gunsmith role applies to "guns" or "weapons". And can someone point me to where knives are mentioned?

Also, lynch Shamrock.

[Staeg]

Also I don't recall Matt ever clarifying whether he was a literal gunsmith or some flavour-variable-smith.

...right. Matt, your cue.

[MichelSableheart]

Matt roleblocked CO, there was no "mown down" kill. CO confessed to being the source of these kills.

Agreed. So if CO isn't mafia, then mafia killed Quilford and Iceguy. No guns were used there. So Matt's one shot gunsmith wouldn't detect at least 2 of the mafiosi, but it would detect CO. What setup can you fathom where that's balanced?

Also I don't recall Matt ever clarifying whether he was a literal gunsmith or some flavour-variable-smith.

Matt gunsmithed Staeg. See also #929. Literally speaking you might be correct, but Matt has heavily hinted that he actually investigated for a gun.

CO being blocked mafia would mean Quilford and IceGuy are SK kills and the mafia killed Amrun. Really?

That's the logical conclusion, yes, and it's not that farfetched. After the mafia lynch day 1, an SK wants to leave mafia alone for a while to avoid exposing himself too much. And before the flip, the SK couldn't judge how much of a threat IceGuy's power would be to him. OTOH, Amrun wasn't that likely to be mislynched, so is a reasonable mafia target, especially given the other players alive at the time.

Also no knife was mentioned in IceGuy's death scene, if you want to get all deep into flavour. Where did you get that impression?

Quilford was stabbed repeatedly -> knives. His kill method says "slaughtered". IceGuy's kill method says slaughtered as well, and flavour indicates an assissinlike murder (door opening quietly). Knives are again the logical conclusion.

[ChaosOmega]

Alright, Michel, I'll humor you. Let's say I'm mafia. I go to kill someone N2 and it fails. MattP says he has role-related information that I'm scum or SK. Now if I had a failed kill attempt and MattP is saying that, I'm about a million percent sure he roleblocked me. Why, as scum, wouldn't I claim full vigilante? Or hell, I could have claimed a non-killing role and tried to pawn off the other kill as a one-shot sort of deal. I'm aware there's a good bit of WIFOM in this, but I wouldn't have claimed odd-night vig as scum there.

So if CO isn't mafia, then mafia killed Quilford and Iceguy. No guns were used there. So Matt's one shot gunsmith wouldn't detect at least 2 of the mafiosi, but it would detect CO.

And you know that two different mafia members performed the NK? Yeah, I vote to shoot MSH if I make it to night.

scum WIFOM us and kill CO

Why are you worried about that? I'm a prime candidate to be mislynched, why would they use a NK on me?

And the incentive for leaving me alive is town gets a directed kill at night. If I disobey, I'm lynched, which means I lose if I'm SK, and I wouldn't want to draw the lynch as mafia either at this point.

[Shamrock]

Agreed. So if CO isn't mafia, then mafia killed Quilford and Iceguy. No guns were used there. So Matt's one shot gunsmith wouldn't detect at least 2 of the mafiosi, but it would detect CO. What setup can you fathom where that's balanced?

Uhhhh maybe a setup where we probably already have a cop to detect the mafia (IceGuy)? Which would mean that Matt's role was included as our way of detecting the SK. I don't see how this is far-fetched at all. Basically your entire argument here boils down to modguessing.

Flavor-wise, it also makes no sense that a gunsmith power would detect the mafia, or at least not the whole mafia. Why would Joan of Arc have a gun?

[MattP]

My gunsmith ability says it works for players with guns so there are several possibilities. First that some mafia are immune to gunsmith investigations like the godfather. Second that my ability can only detect the serial killer in which case CO is third party. Third that CO is scum and I roleblocked him and he is fakeclaiming vig.

[Jarvis]

I still don't see how the gunsmith has any relevance to CO being mafia over SK. All you're doing is doubting Staeg being clear or not.

Also if CO is indeed fakeclaiming the second kill then the real source of said kill shoots him tonight and we lose nothing. Or assuming this player has run out of shots, they claim now. But they would have done so already, so that's not happening.

Quilford was stabbed repeatedly -> knives. His kill method says "slaughtered". IceGuy's kill method says slaughtered as well, and flavour indicates an assissinlike murder (door opening quietly). Knives are again the logical conclusion.

Yeah that's one hell of a stretch. You can die today.

VOTE: MichelSablehart

DV takes a bullet between the eyes tonight.

[Shamrock]

why don't we just lynch DV, what does it matter which is lynched and which is vigged?

[Staeg]

why don't we just lynch DV, what does it matter which is lynched and which is vigged?

BECAUSE I MAY WANT YOU DEAD
OR CO

JESUS CHRIST

[DeasVail]

DV takes a bullet between the eyes tonight.

Is Shamrock scum if I'm town?

[Shamrock]

Yo chillax, I was talking to Jarvis.

I can roll with a MSH lynch, I'm flexible like that. I'm reasonably confident in a DV/MSH scumteam at this point especially after MSH's latest posts.

[DeasVail]

I will support a MSH lynch if you promise not to lynch me at all (and I believe you). Otherwise, I'm just going to keep screaming for a Shamrock lynch.

Also, lynch Shamrock.

[DeasVail]

By the way, I'm really sorry if I'm wrong about you Shamrock.

[Shamrock]

lmao nice try

btw deas next time you draw scum it might be a good idea to google the role you plan to fakeclaim and make sure you spell it right:

Also, I'm Otto Von

Bismark

, VT

[DeasVail]

Ok, I'm Otto Von Bismarck.

I'm town now, right?

[Shamrock]

Oh well now I believe you

[MattP]

I
Drink I thAm sorry I think that it's pretty damn obviously that dv is scum and I am willing to bet the game on his scum flip we should lynchdv and shoot msh it's obvious and the. We win gg this is so ficking easy