History Mafia Mini Theme - 1358 Game Over!

[MattP]

VOTE: deasvail

[shoot] msh tonight [/shoot]

Towns win so fuckinf easy

[MattP]

Co you better be fickig town I fucking swear

[MattP]

Whatever Fucking lunch co tomorrow it its not game idgaf

[DeasVail]

Ok, I have more recent scum meta than what you'd be able to find by looking me up.

One is off-site, but with MS players and mod, and one is on an alt, which you may or may not know about. I also think that my play there is quite different from my play here.

If people think that they would be interested in it and that it would honestly be likely to change their opinion, I would be happy to link you to the games, but I would rather not if you're just going to lynch me anyway.

[MichelSableheart]

Alright, Michel, I'll humor you. Let's say I'm mafia. I go to kill someone N2 and it fails. MattP says he has role-related information that I'm scum or SK. Now if I had a failed kill attempt and MattP is saying that, I'm about a million percent sure he roleblocked me. Why, as scum, wouldn't I claim full vigilante? Or hell, I could have claimed a non-killing role and tried to pawn off the other kill as a one-shot sort of deal. I'm aware there's a good bit of WIFOM in this, but I wouldn't have claimed odd-night vig as scum there.

Why would you claim full vigilante? The kill didn't go through anyway, so we have no way of checking other then waiting till night 4 (which would be far too late). So why not try the slightly more believable fakeclaim?

And you know that two different mafia members performed the NK? Yeah, I vote to shoot MSH if I make it to night.

No, I know that Jean d'Arc doesn't have a gun, and that someone other then Jean d'Arc made those kills.

Uhhhh maybe a setup where we probably already have a cop to detect the mafia (IceGuy)? Which would mean that Matt's role was included as our way of detecting the SK. I don't see how this is far-fetched at all. Basically your entire argument here boils down to modguessing.

There also was a tracker, and SK is a difficult role to play, as a single lynch is enough to make him lose. Yes, it's modguessing, but it's modguessing based on the assumption of a balanced setup.

---

@Jarvis: the second paragraph of your #1064 seems to indicate that you still don't understand my reasoning.

What we know:

• McStab was Joan d'Arc, mafia goon (doesn't have a gun).
  
• Quilford was Marco Polo, tracker, killed by a weapon other then a gun (likely a knive)
  
• Iceguy was King Henry VIII, gender cop, killed by a weapon other then a gun (flavour doesn't indicate gun in any way, likely a knive)
  
• MattP is ?, gunsmith/roleblock/?
  
• Staeg does not have a gun according to MattP's night 1 investigation.
  
• ChaosOmega killed Amrun using a gun on night 1, was blocked by MattP night 2.

Do you agree with the above?

Now, let us assume that MattP is SK (I'll get to the other two possibilities later). If this is the case, then the Quilford and Iceguy kills were made by a mafioso who does not have a gun, which means that there is at most 1 mafioso who does own a gun. Then the SK, a single player who immediately loses if he is lynched, can be detected by both Quilford AND MattP. Simultaneously, of the mafia team, who can afford to be lynched twice without losing, 2 of their members each night are immune to Quilford (since they won't be making the kill) and 2 of their members are immune to MattP (since they don't have guns). This setup would be FAR TOO DIFFICULT for the SK to be considered balanced.

Next, let us assume that MattP is odd-night vig. Then again, Quilford and Iceguy were killed by mafia. which means there is at most 1 mafioso who owns a gun. In this case, what is the point of Matt's gunsmith ability? It detects at most 1 mafioso, and it detects the odd-night vig. That is a relatively pointless ability. Besides, the amount of town power would be high for a game this size, with a tracker, effectiively a two shot fullcop, a gunsmith/roleblocker/? and an odd night vig.

Finally, let us assume that MattP is mafia, who killed Amrun night 1. Then Quilford and Iceguy were killed by someone else, probably an SK. In this situation, mafia can be detected by Iceguy, 2 mafia members can be detected by MattP, and 1 mafia member each night can be detected by Quilford. Simultaneously, the SK can only be detected by Quilford. This is a far better balance of vulnerabilities between a 1 member team and a 3 member team. So it is the far more likely scenario.

I seem to be the only one in this town who's trying to draw conclusions from the data we have available. My setup speculation is waved away as unlikely without any consideration of the alternatives. Please take a moment to think about it: if I am wrong, then how do the flips and claims fit in a balanced setup? The only other alternative I can think of is if Matt's lying, but that scenario is also ridiculously unlikely.

---

Also if CO is indeed fakeclaiming the second kill then the real source of said kill shoots him tonight and we lose nothing. Or assuming this player has run out of shots, they claim now. But they would have done so already, so that's not happening.

so for clarity, once more:

I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT CO IS FAKECLAIMING THE SECOND KILL. I believe that CO, as mafia, killed Amrun. I believe that an SK killed Quilford and Iceguy.

Yeah that's one hell of a stretch. You can die today.

First and most importantly, do you agree with me that a gun was NOT used to kill them?

Secondly, what weapon other then a knife is used to stab someone to death? A sword would be more of a stretch then a knive, a dagger is a type of knive, a club would be completely ridiculous. So what did you expect me to use there?

Finally, if it is a stretch, why do you believe I would be more likely to make that stretch as scum then as town?

[DeasVail]

Is the stabbing from the flavour? If so, I wouldn't trust that it's indicative of anything.

[MichelSableheart]

@DV: So you believe that it is possible that if Matt used his gunsmith ability on the player who killed Quilford and IceGuy, he would have gotten "possesses a gun" as a result? Despite the kill flavour not indicating a gun in any way?

[DeasVail]

Oh, I don't know. I'll think about it later.

[Bitmap]

@Mod: I have finals on Wed. so I'll be taking time to be focusing on them. I'll be posting less but will try to keep up. V/LA till 8/23.

[Nexus]

'History, a distillation of rumour.' - Thomas Carlyle

Votecount 3.3:

DeasVail (3): ChaosOmega, Shamrock, MattP
ChaosOmega (1): MichelSableheart
Shamrock (1): DeasVail
MichelSableheart (1): Jarvis

Not voting (2): Bitmap, Staeg

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends at 8am on August 28th 2012..

[MichelSableheart]

Oh, I don't know. I'll think about it later.

While you're at it, also think about what you believe the setup to be and who has which role.

[Staeg]

Alright, I do not believe that CO is a SK. He's either town (more likely) or mafia. CO, how did you say that you killed, again? What's your full rolename and flavorname, again? Do check your PM for both of these, please.

Upon reading some things I believe that DV should be the lynch today, with CO following tomorrow. I am NOT going to allow a MSH lynch to go through today (maaaaybe tomorrow depending on stuff and things).

I think that one of DV and jarvis is scum, leaning heavily towards DV.

I also have a tinfoil hat theory that Matt's scum, but that may or may not be important come the morrow, and anyway, once CO comes in and clarifies things we're good to go hammer... oh, also, I'd like to ask for opinions on a massclaim, seeing as this is possibly the day before lylo (matt will be excluded from this but he'd better claim tomorrow).

[DeasVail]

I'm just going to ask questions as I see stuff, so apologies if there's an obvious answer.

Why do you think a non-CO SK would kill Quil? (Hint: It's not me)

The first scenario in 1079 looks flawed to me as it seems to be simultaneously having Matt as town and SK. Oh wait, I assume some of the MattP's are actually meant to be CO's? Why do you think you did that?

Also why would SK try to kill IceGuy, who was always likely to be a mafia kill anyway?

Oooohhhhh!

What if the gun thing is another way of possibly verifying claims? Because obviously guns weren't around at the time of Julius Caeser.

OR

Our speculation is just pointless, because Nexus' death scenes begin with "in [year]", so mafia can't exactly shoot Julius Caesar in 44BC (or can they?) Maybe the weapons depend on the year, but anyone who can kill has a "gun" anyway?

Oh wait, just realised they can (someone was killed by an AK in some BC date that I forget)

SO NEVER MIND.

Weapon could still depend on the person killing though (e.g. 2 mafia have guns, one has a knife or something) and the first theory is at least not impossibe.

Hmm, what do you think of the 2 scum on 2 teams possibility?

To be honest, I don't really care about this that much even though I should, because I've gotten myself into a (admittedly unhealthy) state where I so wholeheartedly believe that Shamrock is scum that if he became revealed as an Innocent Child, I'd probably find him scummy for it.

Noooo Staeg

[DeasVail]

Also why did you take out the

"SHAMROCK IS THE SCUM!!! HE SHOULD BE LYNCHED!"

from your post?

[Staeg]

Also why did you take out the

"SHAMROCK IS THE SCUM!!! HE SHOULD BE LYNCHED!"

from your post?

I DONT EVEN KNOW ANYMORE T_T

[Jarvis]

Oh look, a wall.

None of this speculation about whether CO is mafia or not makes any difference to the fact that he will be shot tonight if he's lying.

I'm waiting to hammer DV.

[MichelSableheart]

@Jarvis: shot by whom? Not by mafia, as he is one of them. Nor by the SK, who has no reason to kill a mafia member tonight.

Why do you think a non-CO SK would kill Quil? (Hint: It's not me)

After the lynch of a mafioso day 1, the SK may have wanted to keep the pool to hide in as large as possible. Besides, he needs mafia to whittle down town's numbers. Trying to shoot an obvtown player isnt' a strange play there.

The first scenario in 1079 looks flawed to me as it seems to be simultaneously having Matt as town and SK. Oh wait, I assume some of the MattP's are actually meant to be CO's? Why do you think you did that?

The first MattP in each scenario is meant to be CO, yes. Not entirely sure how the mix up of the names happened. I may have gotten confused from the "MattP is ?" shortly above, or the mixup could be the result of the important role MattP plays in determining CO's alignement.

Also why would SK try to kill IceGuy, who was always likely to be a mafia kill anyway?

Possibly because the SK didn't want to risk getting caught by the information IceGuy hinted he had available.

[ChaosOmega]

CO, how did you say that you killed, again? What's your full rolename and flavorname, again? Do check your PM for both of these, please.

My Role PM doesn't specify anything in regards to flavor of kill. Full rolename and flavorname is Che Guevara, town-aligned odd-night vigilante.

[Staeg]

Matt, more details on your gunsmith, please. Everything that you're allowed to say.

[DeasVail]

Oh look, a wall.

Yeah... There's just so much there and it's

so

hard to read through.

[MattP]

I gave all the role related info I have regarding my gunsmith ability.

[Shamrock]

Just prod-dodging to say that I'm pretty sure my vote is in the right place.

[MichelSableheart]

@DV: sorry for that, it's difficult to be clear and concise if the subject matter is complex.

the shortest summary I can think of:

Given that CO killed Amrun, and given what MattP claimed:

• CO being SK would imply an unbalanced setup
  
• CO being odd night vig makes Matt's gunsmith pointless
  
• CO being mafia would mean a reasonably balanced setup, without outrageous implications.

So CO is almost certainly mafia.

[Staeg]

Okay, so here's my theory. Matt's gunsmith is not your average gunsmith - it is, instead, a flavor-cop of sorts. Matt, try asking the mod if this is so.

[Shamrock]

I still don't see how CO being SK must necessarily result in an imbalanced setup, especially if the gunsmith power is one-shot.