Newbie 1,276 (Game over!)

[StrangerCoug]

VOTE COUNT

nhammen (1): ewo2
Paschendale (1): Cheery Dog
Not voting (6): CityElectric, HerrRudi, JasonWazza, JohnnyFarrar, nhammen, Paschendale

With

8

players alive, it takes

5

players to lynch.

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2012-10-03 20:31:48).

[Paschendale]

Realistically, there were two equally competing wagons. There's just as much chance that scum were on the Ewo wagon and were pushing for that than were on the Wii wagon. The only difference between those two wagons was Cheery's vote. I don't think it's a safe bet to try to pick scum out of one wagon or the other. Even if both scum were on Wii's wagon, then that means 4 townies were voting for Ewo with good reason. If Ewo is town, then it's difficult to tell which wagon scum was on, since they were so close until the end. Neither one was a sure bet for a mislynch. But both scum on Wii's wagon would seem to suggest that Ewo is the scum. Alternately, if Ewo is town, then scum could have split up, one on each wagon, specifically to avoid being caught up in this kind of reasoning, or both scum could have been on the Ewo wagon because they thought it was more likely.

It's too much of an unfounded assumption to proceed as if both scum were on Wii's wagon. The best bet is probably to lynch Ewo. He seemed scummy enough on D1 to be the major counterwagon. And his new attack on Nhammen is ridiculous. He's suggesting that being the IC makes Nhammen more likely to be scum with his "appeal to authority" claim, even though Nhammen didn't really do anything like that. He completely misreps what Nhammen said about the PR discussion. He said we shouldn't try to sort out who was which PR, but then said we might want to consider a massclaim. Those are not contradictory.

Trying to figure out things about the PRs can tip off scum, and not help town. A massclaim could confirm several people as town and drastically improve our chances for a correct lynch today. It's not a bad idea. If we have 2 PRs and one of them saved someone last night, that's 3 confirmed town out of 8 people. That could really help. Notice how none of that tried to figure out who any of those people were, just some simple math.

No, Ewo's attack is very duplicitous. Combine that with D1's conclusions, and the results of the wagons, I think he's our scum.

Vote: Ewo

[Cheery Dog]

ewo was actually the main wagon, and wii became the main counterwagon and ended up lynched.

oh and because I ignored the massclaiming idea before to think it over a bit (and push my opinion), I think it should only happen if we have a cop.
This would allow them to confirm someone along with whoever was saved by the doctor or a possible semi-confirm from the JK.

If there is a doctor and a jailkeeper then we won't know who was actually saved and thus the people they protected would only be semi-confirmed.
If we only have a doctor or jailkeeper then we would probably lose our only PR tonight, which I don't think is a good switch for a confirmed town today.

[JasonWazza]

Why would we want a cop to claim?

Cop claim assuming we have a JK, Cop is protected but no more reports, and the inno gets killed tonight

Cop Claim assuming we have a Doc, Doc could be killed in the next night then we have no more cop and possibly only 2 innos.

I don't see much use in a mass claim i think it is kinda ridiculous and doesn't make much sense until we are in a LYLO situation.

Plus for all we know there is no doc or JK and mafia no killed, i know chance is slim but seriously it's possible.

Any claims now are useless IMO and we should wait till at least Day 3 where we have more content, have less people, and where it forces mafia into a tougher position for claiming, at this point i can honestly see both mafia claiming VT, that doesn't help us much at all.

[Cheery Dog]

2 innos in a 9 player game is still useful. (the unCCness may not actually mean anything)

we're currently at 8 players, if there is a cop (and unCCed), we have 2 confirmed town, v 6 unconfirmed alignment.
with the other PR also claiming and being unCCed, if it's a doctor and they protected save someone other that the cop, that would be 4 conf town v 4 unconfirmed alignment.
if it's a JK, then it's 3 v 1 semi? v 4.

the next night assuming mislynch and a successful night kill we would have 6 players
the cop gives out another conf if doc was 2nd PR, or we have 2 conf and 1 semiconf.
This makes it a 3 v 3, (although mylo), we have a 66.7% chance of hitting scum.

if we hit scum today with the lynch, having a cop and a protective role = almost guarateered town win. (JK would act like a second cop by declaring the target beforehand)

Though I'd also be fine with the massclaim tomorrow, it will need to happen at some stage though.

[ewo2]

you are all allowing the scum to figure out who is or is not a PR right now. WTF.

[JasonWazza]

Mass claim tomorrow because your saying that a cop claim would be confirmed, for all we know there is a doc only or a JK only, meaning the cop is a fake and we go down the shit cause of a poor mass claim today, yes that doesn't change as much tomorrow but it puts Mafia in a tighter spot for claiming and they might claim wrong.

you are all allowing the scum to figure out who is or is not a PR right now. WTF.

Not really we are just establishing that the town is quite obviously divided over this, i doubt mafia will work out a PR from this, however none the less this convo is not helpful in the slightest.

[Cheery Dog]

you are all allowing the scum to figure out who is or is not a PR right now. WTF.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p4205627 - my meta, as I demonstrated there I'm going to talk about them when I have one and I know a claim is false. How are you able to work out if I have a PR here or not from my suggestion of massclaiming?

[ewo2]

i just don't see how a massclaim is going to be all that beneficial today so leaving potential BCs for scum to chew on is not a good thing

[ewo2]

also look at the setup, there's a roleblocker.

[CityElectric]

also look at the setup, there's a roleblocker.

No, there isn't. There is a Jailkeeper, who is a liiiiitle different from a roleblocker. (Mafia used to have Roleblocker instead of Rolecop in the previous newbie setup)

2 innos in a 9 player game is still useful. (the unCCness may not actually mean anything)

Any amount of confirmed innocents (CI?) is useful. However, is it useful enough to trade it for a PR?

we're currently at 8 players, if there is a cop (and unCCed), we have 2 confirmed town, v 6 unconfirmed alignment.

Nope, we don't. The cop claim could be a mafia fakeclaim. Especially since we only know the existence of either a Doc or JK (or both).

with the other PR also claiming and being unCCed, if it's a doctor and they protected save someone other that the cop, that would be 4 conf town v 4 unconfirmed alignment.
if it's a JK, then it's 3 v 1 semi? v 4.

the next night assuming mislynch and a successful night kill we would have 6 players
the cop gives out another conf if doc was 2nd PR, or we have 2 conf and 1 semiconf.
This makes it a 3 v 3, (although mylo), we have a 66.7% chance of hitting scum.

I'm not getting this part... Could you clarify it a little for me? And did you take into account here that JK doesn't confirm roles when there are two mafia and that the mafia will NK the protective role?

if we hit scum today with the lynch, having a cop and a protective role = almost guarateered town win. (JK would act like a second cop by declaring the target beforehand)

Though I'd also be fine with the massclaim tomorrow, it will need to happen at some stage though.

You haven't convinced me yet. And who says that a massclaim needs to happen? I'm starting to feel like you're PR-fishing.

[nhammen]

Its been two days since I made my post in here, so I am a bit overdue on making one. Starting writing now.

[Paschendale]

I don't think we'll need to massclaim today, but I do agree that it's worth keeping as an option. I am intrigued by how hard Ewo is arguing against it.

[nhammen]

Also Nhammen I think it's usually a bad idea to do so before MYLO, At MYLO it's better to have a mass claim as it limits the possibility of mis-lynches (as we can decide where it is more likely to have scum cause everyone has claimed).

If we wait to massclaim until MYLO then scum can lie about their claims much easier. Before MYLO, scum have to worry about whether their claim exists in the town, because that means an auto-lynch, or have to claim vanilla, which confirms any PRs and explicitly describes the setup. In most games on this site, massclaim

before

MYLO is standard procedure. However, Newbie games can last as short as 3 days, and this means that pre-MYLO massclaim would have to occur on D2, which is a bit early. SO you only have a choice between too early and too late, and no choice of exactly the right time unless there are two nights with no kill.

As for me being in a scum team with ewo, how is just that comment against a policy lynch put me to a scum team?

It to me seems like a way for mafia to pull a second mis-lynch straight up on day 2.

How was there anything "policy" about Dog's suggestion? It seems like you were just trying to drive people away from an ewo lynch.

Not knowing that scum can chat pregame, and only having read his own pm.
That game's scum pms said that pregame chat was alloweded and had got to night 1 in which the quicktopic said "stop talking now" before he had claimed that he didn't know scum could pregame chat.
Basically, I think the whole surprise thing was a forgery.
VOTE: Paschendale

I personally highly doubt it is false, for the simple reason that I think that kind of play is above his level (no offense to Pasch). I think he missed it in both that game, where he was scum, and this one, where he could be. And he missed it in the QT, because he obviously misunderstands what your argument is, and if he had seen it from the mod's post in the QT, he would understand your argument. This misunderstanding of your argument could of course be faked, but as I said above, I think that is above his level. Note: it is entirely possible that he is scum, but if he is, he most likely did not see that he could talk pre-game, and so was hitting himself over the head when the mod stated he could.

Yeah, it's a bit weird. Since the setup is known, there aren't really any surprises to be had. The doc/jk can, at most, clear one additional person (the one who was targeted last night). Maybe it could be useful later on (like if the same thing happens again night 2 - not likely), but now would be a bad time for it.

If the same thing happens on N2, then D3 is the PERFECT time for a massclaim. No maybe about it.

Also, how are you voting pasch right now if his being scum is contingent on me being scum?

This is a good question to be asking. Especially coming from the player that he should be voting instead.

Herr is appealing to authority when she says that Cheery's hammer was automatically less significant simply because our IC said so.

I did not read his statement in that way. But now that you mention it, I kinda see where you are coming from. Not sold on Herrscum though.

For now I'll move my vote back to nh for the above reason. Massclaim, lol.

Voting me for suggesting massclaim? Really? Oh, in a later post you state that you still hold scum opinions about me from earlier. I'm pretty sure your case yesterday was completely ripped apart. I believe I was the one to do it.

What happened to this logic? You're voting Pasch, instead of ewo, who, by this logic is more likely to be scum than Pasch.

Repeating ewo's comment. Although scum tend to parrot, this is actually an example of a case when scum would usually not do so. Assume City scum and Pasch town for the moment. Assuming ewo scum, City would not comment on this, because that would be encouraging Dog to vote his partner. Assuming ewo town, City would not comment on this because scum-City likes seeing the most protown player to be suspicious of a player that had previously been seen as town. Thus, if City is scum, his partner must be either Pasch, and he is trying to drive the vote away form his partner, or Dog (I find this highly unlikely), and he is reminding his partner that there is an inconsistency. All told, I find this to be a town read on City.

I would have agreed D1 but honestly his play today is kinda just poor and it makes me feel like he was thrown off balance by the no kill (not sure if that is a null tell or a scum tell in my mind yet).

Spreading doubt about the most widely viewed townread?

[nhammen]

Realistically, there were two equally competing wagons. There's just as much chance that scum were on the Ewo wagon and were pushing for that than were on the Wii wagon.

That is only true if ewo is town. Do you have knowledge the rest of us do not? The rest of the paragraph is decent logic, but makes a faulty assumption that scum would organize who to wagon if both wagons are on town. Scum would independently decide which wagon would be more advantageous. They don't get to communicate in the day.

He said we shouldn't try to sort out who was which PR, but then said we might want to consider a massclaim.

No, actually I was suggesting we stop discussing PRs in general. One player made comments that indicate that they are likely not a power role, without realizing it. I will not say who until the end of the game, because hopefully the scum cant figure it out. But some discussion of PRs is necessary. Thanks for coming to my defense for no apparent reason though. It is almost as if you want me to see you as a friend...

Cop Claim assuming we have a Doc, Doc could be killed in the next night then we have no more cop and possibly only 2 innos.

We only have one more night unless we correctly lynch scum either today or tomorrow. In the case above, Cop would not die until after we have lynched scum. His information would help us greatly. And what happens if scum hit our PRs before they have a chance to give out their info?

at this point i can honestly see both mafia claiming VT, that doesn't help us much at all.

That's a good reason to do it today actually. If we wait until tomorrow, we let scum have complete choice over what to claim. Limiting scum choices is a good thing.

Mass claim tomorrow because your saying that a cop claim would be confirmed, for all we know there is a doc only or a JK only, meaning the cop is a fake and we go down the shit cause of a poor mass claim today, yes that doesn't change as much tomorrow but it puts Mafia in a tighter spot for claiming and they might claim wrong.

First off, 1 PR setups are one case in which a massclaim would be a bad idea. Secondly, claiming wrong could occur today as well. But today, they have to worry about the consequences of claiming wrong, while tomorrow they dont. Thus, they have a looser spot for claiming tomorrow.

Any amount of confirmed innocents (CI?) is useful. However, is it useful enough to trade it for a PR?

Yes, especially if that PR would otherwise only get to act tonight ANYWAYS. Then losing the PR changes NOTHING.

[Paschendale]

Realistically, there were two equally competing wagons. There's just as much chance that scum were on the Ewo wagon and were pushing for that than were on the Wii wagon.

That is only true if ewo is town. Do you have knowledge the rest of us do not? The rest of the paragraph is decent logic, but makes a faulty assumption that scum would organize who to wagon if both wagons are on town. Scum would independently decide which wagon would be more advantageous. They don't get to communicate in the day.

I was trying to avoid making any assumptions, since it was the act of making unfounded assumptions I was attacking. With two strong wagons, I don't think it's a safe bet to assume scum's presence on either one. I was criticizing Ewo's CD's assumptions, nothing more.

He said we shouldn't try to sort out who was which PR, but then said we might want to consider a massclaim.

No, actually I was suggesting we stop discussing PRs in general. One player made comments that indicate that they are likely not a power role, without realizing it. I will not say who until the end of the game, because hopefully the scum cant figure it out. But some discussion of PRs is necessary. Thanks for coming to my defense for no apparent reason though. It is almost as if you want me to see you as a friend...

Again, criticizing others's positions. I happen to agree with you in this instance.

[Cheery Dog]

also look at the setup, there's a roleblocker.

If you're refering to the scumteam, that used to be the case, however it was changed to a rolecop.

[JasonWazza]

Also Nhammen I think it's usually a bad idea to do so before MYLO, At MYLO it's better to have a mass claim as it limits the possibility of mis-lynches (as we can decide where it is more likely to have scum cause everyone has claimed).

If we wait to massclaim until MYLO then scum can lie about their claims much easier. Before MYLO, scum have to worry about whether their claim exists in the town, because that means an auto-lynch, or have to claim vanilla, which confirms any PRs and explicitly describes the setup. In most games on this site, massclaim

before

MYLO is standard procedure. However, Newbie games can last as short as 3 days, and this means that pre-MYLO massclaim would have to occur on D2, which is a bit early. SO you only have a choice between too early and too late, and no choice of exactly the right time unless there are two nights with no kill.

I can understand that but a massclaim in this setup holds a rather major problem, unless there is only one PR then there is a possibility of a fake claim, not to mention the order has to be right to avoid mafia from knowing all the other PR's before they claim.

As for me being in a scum team with ewo, how is just that comment against a policy lynch put me to a scum team?

It to me seems like a way for mafia to pull a second mis-lynch straight up on day 2.

How was there anything "policy" about Dog's suggestion? It seems like you were just trying to drive people away from an ewo lynch.

To me it felt like one of those straight forward straight up lynch's that i have seen, eg. someone hammers before a claim lynch them. and these always flip town with less info then we could of had.

I would have agreed D1 but honestly his play today is kinda just poor and it makes me feel like he was thrown off balance by the no kill (not sure if that is a null tell or a scum tell in my mind yet).

Spreading doubt about the most widely viewed townread?

I am Starting to doubt my town read on him, his play has been a bit more shakey today, he has slipped down to a leaning town for me for now, and i am still doubting that read a little.

But this last bit i wanna just hit you for, as an IC you know the most widely viewed townread could in fact be scum (i assume from experience) and this is a bit too defensive of cherry dog.

Cop Claim assuming we have a Doc, Doc could be killed in the next night then we have no more cop and possibly only 2 innos.

We only have one more night unless we correctly lynch scum either today or tomorrow. In the case above, Cop would not die until after we have lynched scum. His information would help us greatly. And what happens if scum hit our PRs before they have a chance to give out their info?

Agreed but your assuming way to much here.
a) your assuming a mis-lynch
b) your assuming the PR's will get hit and not have a doctor on them

at this point i can honestly see both mafia claiming VT, that doesn't help us much at all.

That's a good reason to do it today actually. If we wait until tomorrow, we let scum have complete choice over what to claim. Limiting scum choices is a good thing.

There is no complete choice over what they can pick no matter when they claim.
We already have PR's so they know they can't do every claim.

Mass claim tomorrow because your saying that a cop claim would be confirmed, for all we know there is a doc only or a JK only, meaning the cop is a fake and we go down the shit cause of a poor mass claim today, yes that doesn't change as much tomorrow but it puts Mafia in a tighter spot for claiming and they might claim wrong.

First off, 1 PR setups are one case in which a massclaim would be a bad idea. Secondly, claiming wrong could occur today as well. But today, they have to worry about the consequences of claiming wrong, while tomorrow they dont. Thus, they have a looser spot for claiming tomorrow.

1 PR setups happen to be half of the setups if i'm not wrong. So you are gambling on a 1/2 chance here.

1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Doctor.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Doctor, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Doctor.

The

ONLY

setup that i see worthwhile with a mass claim today is the cop and doc, but that means kills will be predicted and this would be assuming we could confirm the setup 100% we can't though.

How do they have to worry more today then tomorrow?

i'd be more worried tomorrow then today for claiming if i were scum.

Now i hate to be the only sane person here but, This PR mass-claiming bullshit is wasting the time we can be hunting for scum.

Please stop the mass claim stuff and scumhunt, if we kill scum today we have a lot less to worry about.

[Paschendale]

Please stop the mass claim stuff and scumhunt, if we kill scum today we have a lot less to worry about.

So why don't you vote for someone? Preferably the person you think is scummiest.

[JasonWazza]

Alrighty then i just did an iso based on my theory (been hard to get the time to do it)

VOTE: HerrRudi

Now here is why

MM's with-holding info bit seemed a bit scummy for my liking and that is a mark on HerrRudi's slot that isn't his.

As for Herr himself;

Post 242;

Seems like a very opportunistic vote in my opinion, and doesn't hold much ground on city.

Post 267;

He says Ewo is a "slight town read" then proceeds later in the post to the following

Tell me if I missed anyone. Players of most concern today are City, Wii, and maybe

ewo

(I need to reassess my thoughts on him without assuming city scum).

And not to mention he never put a proper read on city or wii, at the time it felt a bit normal, now i think it was a little off.

Post 288;

Jumps on the wiibox wagon, saying he will deal with city tomorrow.

The only thing that he has provided today is back and forth about possible claiming and hasn't actually put anything against city or had any proper reads.

P-Edit; wow that is a pain

[HerrRudi]

Just got back from my V/LA. I'll be back in action with my take on everything by tomorrow. Just wanted to give a head's up!

P-Edit: I'll offer a more specific rebuttal tomorrow when I'm less tired, but saying that I never put proper reads on City and Wii is a grave misread and inaccurate interpretation of what I've posted so far. And explain to me how my initial vote on City was opportunistic please.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Ok, doing some thinking.

We massclaim, what are the possibilities?

7 VTs, 1 doc = 2 confirmed town

7 VTs, 1 cop = 1 confirmed town, 1 confirmed player (also unlikely, what with the lack of death last night)

7 VTs, 1 JK = 1 confirmed town

6 VTs, 1 cop, 1 JK = nothing today. Either could be lying about target or power. We wouldn't know until they die, which would for sure happen in the night.

6 VTs, 1 doc, 1 JK = also nothing today (or ever), but they could chain defend each other for what it's worth.

6 VTs, 1 cop, 1 doc = nothing today again, but doc protects cop and we get two investigations.

So really, we gain at most 2 confirmed town RIGHT NOW from a massclaim, and that's only if we JUST have a doc (which would die tonight). The only favorable scenario (in my opinion) is a doc and a cop, but that would be betting on one setup out of six, and I'm not really willing to take that bet.

As for the current status of the game, my reasons for voting ewo yesterday still stand.

VOTE: ewo

[JohnnyFarrar]

I just noticed that Jason basically posted the same thing i did. I should read the whole thread before opening my mouth.

[JasonWazza]

6 VTs, 1 doc, 1 JK = also nothing today (or ever), but they could chain defend each other for what it's worth.

No they can't JK would roleblock the docs protect.

And yeah reading is normally good.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Didn't think about that. Yeah, we'd get nothing out of that.