Newbie 1,276 (Game over!)

[Paschendale]

Didn't think about that. Yeah, we'd get nothing out of that.

Good rundown. Let's leave this talk of power roles behind.

@Jason: I agree about Rudi looking kind of suspect, but if part of your argument is about his inconsistent attitudes towards Ewo, doesn't that center on Ewo being suspect as well? Seems like a much better idea to lynch Ewo before we make any associative tells around him.

[JasonWazza]

I don't know about ewo myself tbh, but the main thing was he called him leaning town and then said he was one to keep an eye on, that doesn't really make sense.

ewo my read is wavering a bit too much for my liking, i don't have that much of an idea of town or scum for him.

[JasonWazza]

EBWOP

I don't know about ewo myself tbh, but the main thing was he called him leaning town and then said he was one to keep an eye on, that doesn't really make sense.

my ewo

read is wavering a bit too much for my liking, i don't have that much of an idea of town or scum for him.

[Cheery Dog]

I don't know about ewo myself tbh, but the main thing was he called him leaning town and then said he was one to keep an eye on, that doesn't really make sense.

Who is the second he in this sentence?

[JasonWazza]

I don't know about ewo myself tbh, but the main thing was

HerrRudi

called

Ewo

leaning town and then said

Ewo

was one to keep an eye on, that doesn't really make sense.

Who is the second he in this sentence?

Fixed, sorry about that forgot that the thought process doesn't follow to well when it isn't me

[Cheery Dog]

I said something along those lines when I gave my full list of reads during day 1, so I see no problem with HerrRudi thinking the same thing. (I said null could be leaning town)

[JasonWazza]

HerrRudi said he has to look over a leaning town read (Ewo) and i feel like he is just calling him a leaning town read to try and keep everyone on side.

I recall one game i played in RL (so this is coming from experience) that one person that was scum tried to stay on side with everyone never had a solid read and was a lot like Herr in his reads (saying he'd have to mull someone over who was being wagoned.)

I think herr is trying to do the same by staying on side with ewo by calling him a leaning town read and trying to keep those who think ewo is scum on side by saying he has to look ewo over.

[HerrRudi]

For Jason:

@Jason I usually don't try to soft coax answers, if I have questions for you you'll know haha.

@City I will tunnel players aggressively if I feel I have a strong case to see how they react/defend themselves, so I do not find it a mistake. I appreciate the general concern of that statement though, mostly that I haven't said much about the other players, which is true. (Also sorry for any gender mistakes on my part. I just use masculine nouns/pronouns in general for the internet but now that I know I'll make sure I'm right on you. My bad)

Anyways, I appreciate that you did welcome me, but I just feel overall the post was a soft sell for a sheep-lynch on ewo. It had all the ingredients. It's a null tell on it's own, but in context it meant something to me and still does. If that is your meta though (which I believe) then it carries a little less weight, but the theory is still there. But now that I know this is something you always do, it's less damning evidence. Still, the fact that your defense of your post is that it is bad posting and that you have to retract all of it is rather suspicious, along with what I consider insincere scumhunting and overly opportunistic behavior on your part, my vote will stay on you for now.

If I change my vote, it'll almost definitely be for wiibox. I need to ISO him more (likely to happen tomorrow when I have more time, it's a busy week), but he also has pretty unmotivated scumhunting trends and bad cases. But I don't know if its NH of Johnny but someone said it leans newb behavior so that's why I am hesitant there since I am inclined to agree with that.

Anyways on to some quick reads:

Ewo~~ I have a slight town lean here. He has shown good poise in L-1, but I have concerns with the nature that he hopped on my wagon with. Seems to be licking his chops a little bit if that makes sense. Most of my town read on him is contingent on City actually being scum. Without that assumption, he is a little more suspicious, but not enough in my book. My gut says don't lynch him today right now.

NHammen~~Null. Seems to be hunting, good activity, good questions, etc., but the way you post (which I'm sure is your meta) is offputtingly neutral. My gut read says to stay on my toes with you.
Pashendale~~prob town. Or gambitting super hard. I'm gonna believe that he townslipped for now, since that makes more sense given his tone in my book, as gambits are a little more manufactured and he seems to write what he thinks.
CheeryDog~~Hard Town read here. Keep doing what you do.
Johnny~~Lean town. I haven't really seen anything scummy from him to blip my scumdar. Replaced into a pretty strong town read in Nekeko so his slot is fine for now.
Jason~~Town lean. Pushing a lynch on my slot (MM) without ever gaining much traction (I think) seems townie to me. Seems to be saying what's on his mind, which has a good town feel for me so I lean town here.

Tell me if I missed anyone.

Players of most concern today are City, Wii, and maybe ewo (I need to reassess my thoughts on him without assuming city scum).

[Paschendale]

That was over 100 posts ago, Rudi. What do you think of Ewo now?

[StrangerCoug]

VOTE COUNT

ewo2 (2): Paschendale, JohnnyFarrar
HerrRudi (1): JasonWazza
nhammen (1): ewo2
Paschendale (1): Cheery Dog
Not voting (3): CityElectric, HerrRudi, nhammen

With

8

players alive, it takes

5

players to lynch.

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2012-10-03 20:31:48).

[ewo2]

Will be back later tonight with a solid post but I have to say something real quick - it might sound scummy coming from me (i.e. I can see you thinking I'm pretending not to have known about the setup) but I have already demonstrated at least twice that I know nothing about scum roles in this game, so if that's not a towntell I don't know what is. They were genuine mistakes.

[ewo2]

and if you need confirmation that i screw that stuff up on the regular, check out my other game, which i was just lynched in for making mistakes just like those.

[StrangerCoug]

You should not be talking about ongoing games, ewo2. It's difficult to identify the actual game, so I'm giving you leniency here, but stuff like this can create an unfair influence on the games involved. Strike one.

[ewo2]

I apologize, I assumed it was OK to at least mention it as my part in the game was over. But thanks for the warning.

[Cheery Dog]

Not knowing the setup is a null tell, as we have no idea why you were thinking that (my guess would be that you were reading other setups/games which have one), though it probably means you're not the scum role cop.
and by you bringing it up as a possible town tell just adds WIFOM to it.

The reason why I thought that Pasch's not knowing that scum had pregame talk was a town tell was because of his answer that he only read his own pm, however after seeing he had recently finished enough game which also listed that scum had pregame chat allowed in the scum pm posted at the start of the game, it sent his surprise back to meaning "oh shit I was able to talk to my partner and didn't" I originally read from his statement.
I then brought up that mod's post in the quicktopic about stopping talking because I can see that it's possible to have not read all the detail in a pm, however that statement in that QT made it look obvious to me that he should have known there was pregame chat.

[Paschendale]

Should have known =/= did know. You're making unfounded assumptions. You know you're making unfounded assumptions. You're making up things that aren't there, CD. You're selectively interpreting things to reach a foregone conclusion. And, as always, you have nothing to make the jump from "Pasch may have said something that wasn't true" to "Pasch may have said something that wasn't true because he's scum". You're barking up the wrong tree. Let it go.

Though I have to wonder why a mistake about the rules is a null tell for Ewo, but apparently an all-encompassing scumslip for me. What makes Ewo so special to you, CD?

[CityElectric]

Will be back later tonight with a solid post but I have to say something real quick - it might sound scummy coming from me (i.e. I can see you thinking I'm pretending not to have known about the setup) but I have already demonstrated at least twice that I know nothing about scum roles in this game, so if that's not a towntell I don't know what is. They were genuine mistakes.

Yeah, no. I'm not buying this. Making the mistakes is one thing, but pointing your own mistakes out and saying they're towntells? No. In fact, the fact that you did this makes you more suspicious of doing it on purpose. I'm interested in your solid post, but so far this doesn't feel right to me.

[Cheery Dog]

Though I have to wonder why a mistake about the rules is a null tell for Ewo, but apparently an all-encompassing scumslip for me. What makes Ewo so special to you, CD?

It's the way the response is given which make it flip whatever way, also that you're an SE player and I am therefore expecting better of you.

But I will go actually reread the thread, because I am getting stuck on the same points, and that's not making progress in the game.

I have seen other players fail to notice the difference between mafia roleblocker and rolecop in some of the other newbies games I've had quick browses through, however this is the first time I've seen someone not know that there was pregame chat in them. Even IC's have said the wrong term.

[Cheery Dog]

Even IC's have said the wrong term.

If it helps with my reasoning, I pushed on this when my previous IC said "if he flips roleblocker" before the flip of a caught scum.

[Cheery Dog]

I've just browsed through the original answers when I questioned the surprise this game and the start #95, does actually cover the new answers as well. (really should have got around to rereading this thread during the night more instead of just browsing other random games and playing the others games I'm in).
Could have saved a whole tree (not that is this being printed, but the metaphor will suffice).

unvote

therefore onto suspect number 2 (which people are correct should have actually been number 1, I just got too cocky about that when I found out Pasch was scum in a different newbie game)

vote ewo2

[Paschendale]

And you didn't congratulate me for winning that game, CD. I'm hurt.

[Cheery Dog]

Because that doesn't belong here (and I was really only reading the game because the mod's flavour sounded interesting, the fact you were in it was just a bonus)

[HerrRudi]

Sorry for the quick post. Yay school being a pain! Later this week should afford me some more free time so I can be more active in the game.

--Anyways from their posting and interaction I'm pretty sure Pasch and Cheery are town vs town (I'd hardly call it fighting but I think you can see the point).

--Ewo trying to hard sell his mistakes as town-meta are very odd in my opinion, but as stand alone evidence, I think it's a null tell.

--My read on City kind of wavered at the end of D1 with Wiibox's flip (I was pretty convinced I had a team pegged too as I said earlier, so order didn't matter then so I was fine hopping between the two), so I need to reassess that. Still plausible in my gut I just have to see if I can back that up.

--Jason's case on me is wrong, but he does seem sincere about it. I feel like this is a town tell so I lean town on him.

So by POE my pool I'll be working from is Nhammen (I just have a null tell here and need to decide an opinion), City, Ewo for who get's my vote next

[JohnnyFarrar]

You didn't mention me at all rudi. I'm hurt.

Also more importantly what are you waiting for? Still no vote?

[nhammen]

Well, for a second time in a row, I have taken a few days between posts. This is not good behavior from your IC. And I can already say, with how this week is going, it will happen one more time, because I will not have a chance to post again for a day and a half at least. But after that, I should be back to regularly scheduled programming.


Anyways, to keep things organized, this post will be a rebuttal against Jason's posts, which mostly cover massclaiming. I will post another post immediately following this one, which will cover other topics.

I can understand that but a massclaim in this setup holds a rather major problem, unless there is only one PR then there is a possibility of a fake claim, not to mention the order has to be right to avoid mafia from knowing all the other PR's before they claim.

That's what popcorning is for.

I am Starting to doubt my town read on him, his play has been a bit more shakey today, he has slipped down to a leaning town for me for now, and i am still doubting that read a little.

But this last bit i wanna just hit you for, as an IC you know the most widely viewed townread could in fact be scum (i assume from experience) and this is a bit too defensive of cherry dog.

A) changing your reads is entirely valid. But the way you have done it seems to me like you are looking for excuses to not see him as town.
B) scum tend to be nervous about people that the entire town has agreed are aligned with them, because that means that the scum have to get rid of this person.
C) the most widely viewed townread is town more often than not. We are actually kinda good at reading town. Yes it is possible that I am wrong. It always is possible.

Agreed but your assuming way to much here.
a) your assuming a mis-lynch
b) your assuming the PR's will get hit and not have a doctor on them

Both fairly likely

There is no complete choice over what they can pick no matter when they claim.
We already have PR's so they know they can't do every claim.

They can on the last day. And that is my point. We could have a really scummy player be some role, and then the towniest looking scum counterclaims that person, and ta-da: instant scum win.

6 VTs, 1 doc, 1 JK = also nothing today (or ever), but they could chain defend each other for what it's worth.

No they can't JK would roleblock the docs protect.

And yeah reading is normally good.

Actually, JK-Doc is the most pro-town setup of any of the possibilities. The Doc protects the JK, and the JK chooses between targeting the Doc or targeting a mafia suspect (with more weight towards targeting a mafia suspect). If the mafia target either power role, they are risking no kill, but they have to try for the Doc or the PRs own the game.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=21878
The Doc-JK setup has only been won by scum less than 1/3 of the time as of last count, and I know of multiple town wins since then.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=22857
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=23025

However, this kind of thing turns into a logic puzzle. We can work this out if we turn out to be in this setup.




But, you seem to be getting VERY nervous about the massclaiming idea. And I am kinda thinking it might be because you are scum.