Newbie 1,276 (Game over!)

[CityElectric]

Whoops, I'm sorry for not posting in a while... I'll do a longer/more in-depth post when I get home from school (around 16:30 GMT+1).

[Paschendale]

Given the potential for a LyLo tomorrow, I think we're trying to do this day as carefully as possible. So, there's no need to rush.

[CityElectric]

Well, I still think it's Dog/Jason, with favoring a Jason lynch over a Dog lynch.

The fact I'm still alive means either I'm scum or that scum kept me alive because my reads were all wrong leaving me to hammer a town and that I also declared I was keen on leading another wagon on ewo if wii flipped town

Tell me why you wouldn't be the nightkill for N2 then. That reason only gives you an excuse for N1. Also, I think that the first option is faaaaar more likely than the second.

VOTE: JasonWazza

Your whole reaction to Pasch's claim is looking terrible so far.

My reaction or the reaction you seemed to have made up?

Your initial reaction combined with my own experience. I recognized the 'Oh shit, I'm being caught by a PR-claim, discredit it before it's too late' feeling in your posts I know I had in my previous newbie game. It may just be a bit of a weak tell for others, but for me it works fine/feels good.

And I'm seeing the common "One on, One off" strategy that most newbies insist on applying. Which is why I think city/jason is the team.

In case this helps you in some way, this is the first time I've ever even heard of that strategy. And I've played scum before.

But again PoE gets us no where because we can't believe that you are town so your PoE is nothing from everyone else's point of view, and here is the main thing i am seeing here.

I'm not considering the fact that I'm scum because I'm not scum. My logic works fine for me.

True, but that doesn't mean it works for us. You can't ask us to follow your logic if you exclude yourself and we don't know whether you should be excluded. From my point of view with your logic, I'd end up with a Johnny/Jason team, which is different from yours. Does that mean my team is better/more likely than yours? (Answer: for me it does) Any unconfirmed would come to a different conclusion. Hence, your point is pretty much null to us, until you're confirmed town in one way or another.

[Cheery Dog]

The fact I'm still alive means either I'm scum or that scum kept me alive because my reads were all wrong leaving me to hammer a town and that I also declared I was keen on leading another wagon on ewo if wii flipped town

Tell me why you wouldn't be the nightkill for N2 then. That reason only gives you an excuse for N1. Also, I think that the first option is faaaaar more likely than the second.

Why is one option more likely than the other?
Do you see how I'm now being attacked, what scum would be killing someone that would possibly be getting a wagon on the next day?
I'm also assuming they didn't kill pasch in the hope I'd be going back to attacking him today.

In case this helps you in some way, this is the first time I've ever even heard of that strategy. And I've played scum before.

This eliminates the likelyhood of you/Jason team slightly, however it doesn't mean that Jason hadn't heard of that before. (and if he does now tell me he also hadn't heard of it, then I'll be taking a WIFOM approach to that answer)

@Johnny; are you going to back up your opinion with a vote?

[HerrRudi]

City I think the Cheery Jason team is probably unlikely.

Anyways I'm not too keen on thinking about teams when we don't even have a scum flip. Let's focus on one target that is the scummiest; once we lynch a mafia then we can talk teams more productively. All of this is just kind of overly speculative in my opinion.

[StrangerCoug]

VOTE COUNT

Cheery Dog (2): HerrRudi, JasonWazza
JasonWazza (1): CityElectric
JohnnyFarrar (1): Cheery Dog
Not voting (2): JohnnyFarrar, nhammen, Paschendale

With

7

players alive, it takes

4

players to lynch.

Day 3 ends in (expired on 2012-10-18 20:04:24).

[Paschendale]

Nhammen, we're basically waiting on you.

[Cheery Dog]

City I think the Cheery Jason team is probably unlikely.

Anyways I'm not too keen on thinking about teams when we don't even have a scum flip. Let's focus on one target that is the scummiest; once we lynch a mafia then we can talk teams more productively. All of this is just kind of overly speculative in my opinion.

Being able to eliminate possible teams means being able to determine who is most likely to be scum, that is where the vote should be.

For example my vote is currently on Johnny because I discarded my logic as likely still leading wrong, with both of City/Jason gaining mostly scum points however some stages where they picked up town points, they were the obvious scumteam to me, however I then looked at Johnny and he practically stayed null the whole time, and calculated that if you're still null on day 3 then you must have something to hide.

[JohnnyFarrar]

I'm willing to vote either City or Jason. We all basically agree on Jason, but I'd rather wait to see what Nhammen thinks before moving forward.

[nhammen]

Jason has given some tells that strike me as newbtown, and at this point I consider him to be fairly town. In fact, every player seems to be individually town, which means that scum has done a good job of laying low. I think looking at connections is the only real way to go. From this, a Johnny lynch provides a lot of information. But that is very terribad reasoning. I just feel that I should be able to do something to get a handle on who is scum, but they've done a good job so far.

[Paschendale]

A Johnny lynch may provide good information, but I'm pretty sure that Cheery is our scum.

I'm going to put my vote back.

Vote: Cheery Dog

[nhammen]

The scum team is CD and Johnny, that is my call on this situation.

Well, I still think it's Dog/Jason, with favoring a Jason lynch over a Dog lynch.

I'm willing to vote either City or Jason.

Either one of these three is distancing from their partner, or the team is Dog/Johnny.

Note: CheeryDog's behavior is distancing from all three, and not giving much info of his own, which is smart scumplay if he is scum.

[Cheery Dog]

That's probably because I haven't had a clear town read from any of them.

Right now I am thinking Johnny/Jason with early bussing though.

From venrob's previous newbie game, I think he probably had worked out that we weren't going to random hammer on page 2 and risked putting his partner onto L-1 since he hated RQS.

Tough then I wonder if RQS helped the scum, whether a venrob scum would actually attack it. Given how he removed the vote, I think he might have, but just in case I think Johnny is the better lynch for today.

[StrangerCoug]

JasonWazza is due for a prod in (expired on 2012-10-06 13:30:52).

[JasonWazza]

Prod dodge, content when i don't feel like i am gonna fall asleep

[JohnnyFarrar]

VOTE: CityElectric

Inactivity.

[Cheery Dog]

Johnny/Jason team confirmed.

[CityElectric]

VOTE: CityElectric

Inactivity.

I can't help I'm singing in an opera and that I just don't have much time... I'll have performance tomorrow and Monday, so I won't be as active as I'd like on those days too.

Also, since when is inactivity a solid scumtell?

[JohnnyFarrar]

Not because of your inactivity, I voted because everyone was inactive.

(You're in an OPERA?! AWESOME)

[CityElectric]

So that's your way of generating discussion. Interesting. Why vote me for that purpose?

(Well, the choir I'm in is... So, that means I am too. It's a version of the Ring des Nibelungens by Wagner that's been adapted for kids, so it's fun.)

[Paschendale]

Note: CheeryDog's behavior is distancing from all three, and not giving much info of his own, which is smart scumplay if he is scum.

Too good to let pass, I think. If he were really interested in finding scum, he wouldn't be pushing all three. Cheery's change from pursuing one or two reads very solidly, to literally trying every single option, and doing them half-heartedly... It's too big a change, from a very aggressively pro-town stance to this cautious distancing.

[JasonWazza]

Ergh this days is so inactive it's not funny.

here is an overview of how each of the 3 other unconfirmed's have been acting

Cherry- Has been half ass saying that an UN-confirmed has to be in the team and that the team is basically one of the 3 possible and only recently added a team that he thinks it is, to me that seemed opportunistic of him and he is my top scum pick for today.

Johnny- Put his vote on City seemingly to avoid any possible lynch in my mind, that may just be a paranoid townie though, so that is null in my mind, other then that he has seemed slightly scummy but not enough to be today's lynch.

City- Got defensive (sorta) over johnny's vote making me think that he has a reason to be defensive (tried to immediately invalidate the vote) he has been on and off scummy for a while but i am more confident on cherry then city.

[Cheery Dog]

I've been giving my opinion on all possible teams from my perspective, since I don't have any obvtown reads on any you, you're all still possible.

I may have changed by mind a few times over which it is today, but I feel confident I currently have the right choice.

Looking at where the votes are currently
Johnny < Cheery
Cheery < Jason
Jason < City
City < Johnny

We can eliminate all the teams which have someone voting who would be the other member unless bussing is happening, but when you've got a chance such as this to get to LYLO I doubt unless extremely confident scum, any scum would be choosing to distance right now.

That leaves us with either City/Cheery or Jason/Johnny.

Since my PoE has reduced it done to that, I'm going to now move my vote into line with voting the same way as my new townlead.

unvote, vote Jason

[JasonWazza]

So in other words you have nothing useful, it is possible for a bus for town cred, so you have given the town nothing yet again.

[Cheery Dog]

How is limiting yourself to one scumread (and a team now that you've been 'ganged up') more useful than working your way through the options?