Newbie 1,276 (Game over!)

[CityElectric]

So in other words you have nothing useful, it is possible for a bus for town cred, so you have given the town nothing yet again.

Indeed, bussing is a possibility, but Dog gave some good arguments why they most likely wouldn't. (Although they might do it after he stated it...) Also, he did include himself in the possibilities this time, so that's good as well. You just can't attack it, like you're willing to.

Ergh this days is so inactive it's not funny.

here is an overview of how each of the 3 other unconfirmed's have been acting

Cherry- Has been half ass saying that an UN-confirmed has to be in the team and that the team is basically one of the 3 possible and only recently added a team that he thinks it is, to me that seemed opportunistic of him and he is my top scum pick for today.

Johnny- Put his vote on City seemingly to avoid any possible lynch in my mind, that may just be a paranoid townie though, so that is null in my mind, other then that he has seemed slightly scummy but not enough to be today's lynch.

City- Got defensive (sorta) over johnny's vote making me think that he has a reason to be defensive (tried to immediately invalidate the vote) he has been on and off scummy for a while but i am more confident on cherry then city.

Yeah, I had a reason to be defensive. It looked like he wanted to have me lynched over something stupid as me being inactive, while I have a pretty good RL reason to be so. Inactivity is a null-tell at best.

Also, Johnny voted me over everyone else, because he thinks you/me is the scumteam. Why would that be avoiding any possible lynch?

[StrangerCoug]

VOTE COUNT

Cheery Dog (3): HerrRudi, JasonWazza, Paschendale
CityElectric (1): JohnnyFarrar
JasonWazza (2): CityElectric, Cheery Dog
Not voting (1): nhammen

With

7

players alive, it takes

4

players to lynch.

Day 3 ends in (expired on 2012-10-18 20:04:24).

[Cheery Dog]

@Mod Paschdale is voting me as of #560.

[StrangerCoug]

Fixed.

[HerrRudi]

Apologize for my delay this weekend. I was out of town and anticipated access, but no dice. I'll read the new stuff and get back in this

[HerrRudi]

The fact that Jason is a popular unanimous pick I think is a town tell for him. Johnny saying lets just lynch Jason since everyone is suspicious of him is terribly scummy in my opinion now with that in context. Jason should live today.

I'm still for a Cheery lynch. I will also happily wagon on Johnny.

I'm pretty sure that City is being sincere with her busy schedule and her response to a tunnel I put on her reads town. I also just have a gut town read here.

[nhammen]

If those town reads are correct, then you have determined the scumteam. I've been thinking about this a bit, and every piece of evidence I have come across is either confirmation bias or paranoia, and I'm unsure how to distinguish between the two in this particular game. I am a bit uncomfortable with Johnny. I would expect a town player to be more paraniod about Cheery at this point. For that reason, in addition to the reasons I have given previously:
VOTE: Johnny

[CityElectric]

If those town reads are correct, then you have determined the scumteam. I've been thinking about this a bit, and every piece of evidence I have come across is either confirmation bias or paranoia, and I'm unsure how to distinguish between the two in this particular game. I am a bit uncomfortable with Johnny. I would expect a town player to be more paraniod about Cheery at this point. For that reason, in addition to the reasons I have given previously:
VOTE: Johnny

How much would you oppose a Dog-lynch right now? Because this day has been dragging on for far too long now, and, face it, lynching Dog is a good way to end it. According to me at least. I declare intent to hammer Dog. If you've got something you want to ask/do on this day, please say so. (Of course, if you're really against a Dog lynch, you should totally speak up as well.) I'll be out again for most of tomorrow, so it's not like you won't have time to do so.

[nhammen]

On the one hand, I am fine with a Dog lynch. On the other... did that look like City/Johnny to anyone else?

[Paschendale]

I can see a Dog/Johnny team. Especially when I recall that Johnny was originally Nekoko.

But Nhammen, are you more sure of Johnny than of Dog? If you see them as the team, why kill the one we're less sure of first?

[nhammen]

I'm more sure of Johnny than Dog. But not by much. Johnny could be anybody's partner. Dog's connections give fewer plausible options.

[Paschendale]

I'm more sure of Johnny than Dog. But not by much. Johnny could be anybody's partner. Dog's connections give fewer plausible options.

Wouldn't that make a Dog scumflip more useful, since Johnny could be anyone's partner?

[nhammen]

It would make a Cheery scumflip more useful than a Johnny scumflip, but a Johnny scumflip more likely than a Cheery scumflip. If I am right, anyways.

[Paschendale]

I see a Cheery scumflip as much more likely.

[Cheery Dog]

On the other... did that look like City/Johnny to anyone else?

My gut has been tossing up that team since night 1.

Johnny's vote on City screwed with that gut read though, it just doesn't seem logical enough that if you are giving your partner & a town away (which if Johnny is scum he was doing) and calling them the scumteam, you would have to play off towncred from the scum lynch.

though calling me out as town is a risky move if he is indeed scum, since he would know as well as I do that it is true.

yeah my reads are still going everywhere, sorry about that, it's either the scum or myself that's playing mindgames with me.

[Cheery Dog]

Also before anyone does actually lynch me, could the three confirmed town please tell us what your plan of action is tomorrow on either way I flip?

For example if I'm town who is the most likely scumteam based on me flipping town.

and if I'm somehow changed roles and I flip scum, who is most likely my partner?

Especially need Pasch to do this since he unless some weird gambit by someone is going to die tonight.

[Paschendale]

Even if we lynch a town today, our odds tomorrow are actually pretty good. Assuming I die tonight, that leaves two confirmed and three unconfirmed, two of whom are scum. Meaning there's a 2/3 chance of hitting scum. Then the next day, there's at worst a 50/50 chance of killing the last scum. I like our odds.

[JasonWazza]

So in other words you have nothing useful, it is possible for a bus for town cred, so you have given the town nothing yet again.

Indeed, bussing is a possibility, but Dog gave some good arguments why they most likely wouldn't. (Although they might do it after he stated it...) Also, he did include himself in the possibilities this time, so that's good as well. You just can't attack it, like you're willing to.

He has been half assing all day and has given us crap, and still is in my mind, i don't see him as very likely to be town as he has very little to contribute.

Ergh this days is so inactive it's not funny.

here is an overview of how each of the 3 other unconfirmed's have been acting

Cherry- Has been half ass saying that an UN-confirmed has to be in the team and that the team is basically one of the 3 possible and only recently added a team that he thinks it is, to me that seemed opportunistic of him and he is my top scum pick for today.

Johnny- Put his vote on City seemingly to avoid any possible lynch in my mind, that may just be a paranoid townie though, so that is null in my mind, other then that he has seemed slightly scummy but not enough to be today's lynch.

City- Got defensive (sorta) over johnny's vote making me think that he has a reason to be defensive (tried to immediately invalidate the vote) he has been on and off scummy for a while but i am more confident on cherry then city.

Yeah, I had a reason to be defensive. It looked like he wanted to have me lynched over something stupid as me being inactive, while I have a pretty good RL reason to be so. Inactivity is a null-tell at best.

Also, Johnny voted me over everyone else, because he thinks you/me is the scumteam. Why would that be avoiding any possible lynch?

But he wasn't voting you based on inactivity of you, he said he was voting due to the inactivity on his best scum read.

And you are one of the less likely to be lynched people at the time

Cheery Dog (3): HerrRudi, JasonWazza, Paschendale
JasonWazza (1): CityElectric
JohnnyFarrar (1): Cheery Dog

CityElectric (1): JohnnyFarrar

Not voting (1): nhammen

This has been edited to reflect how the game was at the time btw

But notice how he is the only one voting you, he didn't join an already started wagon he made a new one, hence trying to avoid a lynch.

[CityElectric]

Yeah, I had a reason to be defensive. It looked like he wanted to have me lynched over something stupid as me being inactive, while I have a pretty good RL reason to be so. Inactivity is a null-tell at best.

Also, Johnny voted me over everyone else, because he thinks you/me is the scumteam. Why would that be avoiding any possible lynch?

But he wasn't voting you based on inactivity of you, he said he was voting due to the inactivity on his best scum read.

Let me quote Johnny's vote:

VOTE: CityElectric

Inactivity.

That 'Inactivity' part looked like his reason for voting me. (He later clarified this wasn't the case.) Don't tell me you immediately knew that he was voting me because the thread was inactive and I was his biggest scum-read.

[JasonWazza]

actually i assumed that cause of how inactive everything has been and the fact that if that was the reason for his vote, he may as well have voted for Paschendale because we were all being inactive.

[CityElectric]

I've been a liiiittle more inactive than most. Also, it's a terrible scumtell.

[JohnnyFarrar]

This wasn't the kind of conversation I was hoping for -.-

Are we waiting on anything else? I really don't want to lynch cheery, but if it'll stimulate this game I guess I can compromise. Town's basically got this anyway.

[JasonWazza]

Actually i think nhammen and pasch are deciding the optimal lynch between themselves and us un-confirmed's are squabbling between ourselves.

I think in the end it should be the confirmed's that finalize the lynch as they are the ones that are pretty much town.

[Cheery Dog]

I agree that the confirms should be wielding the hammer.

[CityElectric]

They should hurry up then, like I already said, this day is dragging on for far too long already. I feel like it's time to move on.