Newbie 1289 - Game Over!

[RedRabbit]

Ok, I'm buying it. I still have a scum read on ovyo/Mr.JamesWatson/Leonshade, (stronger than before), but I'll join your wagon in order to get the lynch today.


UNVOTE: ovyo
VOTE: DeltaBacon.

Note: DeltaBacon is now L-1.

[Deltabacon]

I've been at a graduation day today, and so I am currebtly on my phone. However, I'll be home within the next two hours, so expect a post within the next three. Sorry for the delay at such a decisive time of the day.

[Leonshade]

I've only read what's been posted after I replaced in, but I'm not convinced of Tierce's plan just yet. I'll have to read through the game to see if I agree with her.

UNVOTE: buldermar

[Deltabacon]

I'd highly appreciate a chance to fully explain my actions throughout the game prior to any hammering.

[Tierce]

Loving the crickets from both Leonshade and Cheery Dog. Especially that one from Leonshade. If you only read what's posted after you replaced in and you were Town, you might not be voting yet, sure, but how come that would not convince you of the plan when logically the scum in the plan are Deltabacon and Cheery Dog? Get to bussing or lynching scum already.

PEdit: You might as well claim while you are at it.

[Deltabacon]

Alrighty, I'm home and ready to go.

I have experimented with myself this game, potentially damaging town in the process. I'm aware that, from games from here and on other sites, I cannot play as a town-reading townie. I can never do it. I figured that instead of constantly searching for scum by being all 'conventional' about it, I would instead see if I could pull off a scumhunt on my own terms, which I believe has worked in some respects, utterly and completely failed in others.

By placing myself in the firing line (by tunnelling on Tierce), I have made myself out to be an erratic townie, who is potentially a strong distraction for scum. I believe that rather than go for an easy lynch and not have insurance D2, scum would rally to me and defend me. Whilst I haven't seen any glaring examples of what could be considered a strong chainsaw defense, I can see why I am an obvious lynch, and why scum, rather than hammering, are looking for me to lynch buldermar in an effort to preserve my own life in the game, making me an even more ideal lynch candidate tommorow. I will do no such thing. I believe, with a fairly high degree of certainty, that both scum are hiding in the buldermar train, and that all the players on my train are townies.

My strong townreads so far include Tierce, Jason and buldermar, and the other's are either null or leaning scum. In an ideal world, it'd be a smaller list to have to draw up, to make the potential probability of hitting scum higher, but I am looking at vendetta21, Airick10, Cheery Dog and Leonshade for my potential scum. The mafia are within these 4 people, from my point of view.

I believe that the lack of desire to lynch yet, shown by both Leonshade and Cheery Dog are the largest indicators of scum I have seen thus far in the game, and I am inclined to pursue a lynch on one of them today. A lynch on me will flip Vanilla Townie, so no great loss, however I think it would be a travesty to not get scum at this stage of the game, in such certain circumstances.

I will happily answer any doubts you have about this post, please, feel free to ask questions at your leisure. I have about 3-4 hours left today to clarify anything, otherwise it'll be about 24 hours from now that I'll be able to post again.

UNVOTE: Tierce
VOTE: Leonshade

[Leonshade]

Loving the crickets from both Leonshade and Cheery Dog. Especially that one from Leonshade. If you only read what's posted after you replaced in and you were Town, you might not be voting yet, sure, but how come that would not convince you of the plan when logically the scum in the plan are Deltabacon and Cheery Dog?

Huh? I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. Why would Delta and Cheery being scum in your plan convince me of your plan? I haven't read the game yet, so I don't have strong opinions on who is scum. I'll read the game tomorrow, and then I'll get back to you on who is scum. I'm not going to vote for Delta just because you say so.

[Deltabacon]

And that delaying tactic should seal it for you.

[JasonWazza]

I believe that the lack of desire to lynch yet, shown by both Leonshade and Cheery Dog are the largest indicators of scum I have seen thus far in the game, and I am inclined to pursue a lynch on one of them today. A lynch on me will flip Vanilla Townie, so no great loss, however I think it would be a travesty to not get scum at this stage of the game, in such certain circumstances.

OK speaking as one of the replacements here, I was a little worried about doing anything because of the circumstances of the game and the fact i haven't read, hence why i pushed Tierce for reasoning.

I believe that for both cherry and leon that it is likely the same in that it is confusing to do much given the circumstances of the replacements.

[Leonshade]

And that delaying tactic should seal it for you.

There's a week left until the deadline and I just replaced in. Give a guy a break here.

[Deltabacon]

There's no reason why you couldn't be reading the game thus far inbetween posts, skimming and scanning the text for stuff you find interesting and scum-like. I don't see why you're delaying the reading until tommorow, when clearly you are already keeping up with the game's current events.

[Leonshade]

I'll have more time tomorrow. Checking in takes little to no time, reading through a topic takes a lot longer.

[JasonWazza]

No offense DeltaBacon but i think your clutching at straws at the moment.

You seem like your flailing to try and get attention elsewhere.

Also

PEdit: You might as well claim while you are at it.

Why didn't you follow this suggestion from Tierce?

[Leonshade]

He claimed VT in the post where he voted for me.

[JasonWazza]

erm my bad i must have glossed over that part of the post

[Deltabacon]

I'm not clutching at straws, I've come clean about my strategy to catch scum, which has worked, to a certain extent.

[JasonWazza]

your scum strategy is to seem scummy to catch scum, sorry if i don't think that makes any legitimate sense.

Not to mention your "scum-hunting" strategy has given you a list of 4 players, which is based really basically on VCA.

[RedRabbit]

I'm sorry, are you saying that you made yourself look scummy so that you could evaluate who would jump on your wagon (town) and who would stay clear (scum)?

You do realise that if we follow your premise, then the best policy of seeing if that is true is to lynch you, don't you?

[Deltabacon]

To condense down what I said earlier:

I acted scum-like to make myself a useful distraction for scum, which I believed would make them want to keep me alive for an easy D2 quicklynch. I believe this strategy to have worked, and currently I am voting for Leonshade, and looking at Cheery Dog as the second scum. Failing this, the other scum, I believe, are within the 4 people on Buldermar's wagon as outlined in Tierce's 249.

NINJA'd: @Jason I do realise that it's quite based on VCA, but there is a great deal of what I would explain in Tierce's above post. Other than the part about my scumhood, I believe it to be quite satisfactory in being pretty much my case, the quick-swap to save a potentially useful lynch D2.

NINJA'd Again: @Rabbit Yes, I do also recognise that the one of the best ways to follow up is to lynch me, however I'd prefer this not to be the case, in all honesty. As far as I can see, we have a base chance of 50% for lynching scum today, given that we follow the 4 players I outlined. I believe that if we read into the slot's more recent actions, this increases under the two that I have all bu FoS'd.

[RedRabbit]

That was a very risky ploy Delta. And I have to say I think it's going to backfire.

I actually

had

a stronger read on Leonshade than I did you, as I mentioned earlier, but this looks like scum trying to weasel their way out of a lynch. As you must have realised would happen when you came up with the ploy.

If you were trying to act so scummy in order to see if scum wouldn't jump on your wagon so that they could keep you around as a diversion, then you forgot to take into account that scum only make up 2 of 9 players. The other 7 are going to want to lynch you for being scummy and scum will realise that in order to look non-scummy they should jump in too.

Even if you flip town now, I'm not sure it makes those on Buldemar's lynch look as scummy as you seem to think.

Sorry, but my vote stays. I had my doubts but not anymore.

Someone hammer please.

[Deltabacon]

Yeah, as long as we don't see a mislynch tommorow, I'm happy (well, not happy, but yeah) to see myself get lynched, I would also, however, appreciate everyone to get a say in today about the above, so that any reads can be worked on and solidified going into Day 2. Specifically, vendetta and airlick's view, but having everyone's would be ideal prior to a hammer.

[Airick10]

I don't have a strong read on DeltaBacon being scum, although I do agree with RedRabbit that it's a risky strategy on his part.

I like to look for scum one by one. I do not like to group them together, because scum typically won't like to be seen tied to each other. It's too obvious. If buldermar is lynched, you are correct in saying at least one of those who votes buldermar is indeed scum (majority vote).

This has been one of the strangest games I've played at this point, it's hard to get a real good read due to replacements, distractions, and odd requests.

I do not believe DeltaBacon is scum and will not cast a vote on who I think is a townie. Along that same line, I understand buldermar's response to his request to Tierce to replace out. Acknowledging the scummy move and not pushing the request any further cools my suspecions of buldermar.

Unvote

I know this looks like a scummy move, especially to Delta's eyes as I'm backing off the buldermar lynch and not voting on Delta. Frankly, I do not have a solid scum read at this point and as I said, I don't want to vote on somebody who I do not think is scum.

[RedRabbit]

You're right Airick. That does look like a scummy move.

Delta just said he tried to play it scummy. He admitted this. So it comes down to two things: 1. He's lying and actually is scum, or, 2. he's town and has tried to play a very strange fake.

I can't see how you think it's 2 and if it is 2 then he should be lynched for even trying something so audacious.

[Tierce]

Alrighty, I'm home and ready to go.

I have experimented with myself this game, potentially damaging town in the process. I'm aware that, from games from here and on other sites, I cannot play as a town-reading townie. I can never do it. I figured that instead of constantly searching for scum by being all 'conventional' about it, I would instead see if I could pull off a scumhunt on my own terms, which I believe has worked in some respects, utterly and completely failed in others.

By placing myself in the firing line (by tunnelling on Tierce), I have made myself out to be an erratic townie, who is potentially a strong distraction for scum. I believe that rather than go for an easy lynch and not have insurance D2, scum would rally to me and defend me. Whilst I haven't seen any glaring examples of what could be considered a strong chainsaw defense, I can see why I am an obvious lynch, and why scum, rather than hammering, are looking for me to lynch buldermar in an effort to preserve my own life in the game, making me an even more ideal lynch candidate tommorow. I will do no such thing. I believe, with a fairly high degree of certainty, that both scum are hiding in the buldermar train, and that all the players on my train are townies.

My strong townreads so far include Tierce, Jason and buldermar, and the other's are either null or leaning scum. In an ideal world, it'd be a smaller list to have to draw up, to make the potential probability of hitting scum higher, but I am looking at vendetta21, Airick10, Cheery Dog and Leonshade for my potential scum. The mafia are within these 4 people, from my point of view.

I believe that the lack of desire to lynch yet, shown by both Leonshade and Cheery Dog are the largest indicators of scum I have seen thus far in the game, and I am inclined to pursue a lynch on one of them today. A lynch on me will flip Vanilla Townie, so no great loss, however I think it would be a travesty to not get scum at this stage of the game, in such certain circumstances.

I will happily answer any doubts you have about this post, please, feel free to ask questions at your leisure. I have about 3-4 hours left today to clarify anything, otherwise it'll be about 24 hours from now that I'll be able to post again.

UNVOTE: Tierce
VOTE: Leonshade

You know why I'm not buying this? Because even ailing town who is trying to do the "reactions, lol" of the "easy mislynch play" (most of them are actually scum) show a sign here and there of

trying

. Before the above post, you were not doing so, and I find it very ill-timed that you would "come clean" in that post and not on the one before it, where you were essentially whining at me and there was no actual sign of scumhunting.

In addition, you do realize that "Cheery Dog and Leonshade show no desire to lynch" is actually the only scumhunting commentary you have made about people the game aside for those about me? I would have expected town in this position to actually show what work they have been performing so far (like a player who is playing scummier than usual to avoid a night-kill because he is a power role, coming clean and playing normally after he claims his role).

In addition, and as an IC note, if you really are town: don't do that. Don't play for the "easy mislynch". You lied and misrepresented me at several points. You do not have a reputation on the site, in which case it might be possible to turn such a wagon around and dissect it for scum/town reads. The reason your idea doesn't work is that if you are playing scummy, town will jump on you, and scum have excellent reasons to jump on you. You cannot really distinguish between those without a lot more experience.
Essentially, this:

this looks like scum trying to weasel their way out of a lynch. As you must have realised would happen when you came up with the ploy.

If you were trying to act so scummy in order to see if scum wouldn't jump on your wagon so that they could keep you around as a diversion, then you forgot to take into account that scum only make up 2 of 9 players. The other 7 are going to want to lynch you for being scummy and scum will realise that in order to look non-scummy they should jump in too.

I like to look for scum one by one. I do not like to group them together, because scum typically won't like to be seen tied to each other. It's too obvious. If buldermar is lynched, you are correct in saying at least one of those who votes buldermar is indeed scum (majority vote).

Which is why I don't think Natural_river/Cheery Dog and MrJamesWatson/Leonshade are

both

scum. But jumping off Deltabacon's wagon and trying to push buldermar's wagon makes perfect sense if one is paired with Deltabacon and the player did not want to bus on D1.
Relationship tells on D1 are hard to analyze, and you should very rarely use them to judge a lynch's full worth. However, don't shy away from noting them down (not necessarily in the thread), because what feels like town/town, scum/town and scum/scum interactions on D1 may become important for analyzing the game later once there are flips and known alignments.

[RedRabbit]

But jumping off Deltabacon's wagon and trying to push buldermar's wagon makes perfect sense if one is paired with Deltabacon and

the player did not want to bus on D1

.

Noob question Tierce; What does the bolded bit mean?