Ladies Night 2: No Cover -- (Game Over)

[camn]

What do I think?
3 things first.
a) Huntress is giving me a BIG tingle. but ima come back to that another day.
b) from my iso of Telo earlier.. she was really, really avoiding having an opinion. I dont think there is much there.
c) I love RedCoyote. Did you see how he compiles the votecounts in post 2?
Looking at the VCA.. I dont see any perfect fits.
The Telo-Rachmarie crossvoting... I can buy it from telo.. but Rachmarie never jumped off! Is she that savvy as scum? To hold on all the way to the lynch? Looking at her ISO it seems like a legit read... but obv it could be a bus. But a VERY GOOD bus, imo, if it is.

Spoiler: FINAL VOTECOUNT

Telo

(10) (

RachMarie

- DrippingGoofball - PiggyGal15 - Brandi - camn -

CityElectric

- Fujiko - Eidolon - TraceyLyn11 - Sucrose)

Fujiko

(1) (

Bunnylover

)

Huntress

(2) (Tammy - Seastormjt)

Brandi

(1) (springlullaby)

PiggyGal15

(1) (Telo)

Sucrose

(1) (Amrun)

camn

(1) (Huntress)

Not Voting

(1) (Apokalyptika)

I think there is CERTAINLY scum in those last 4. [Fujiko - Eidolon - TraceyLyn11 - Sucrose]
As noted, IMO, I think Fujiko is town on daytalk-slip.. Eidolon is town for trying to run me up (too risky for scum), and Sucrose is leaning town on play. That leaves Tracy, the flinter that was.

flinters vote on me early was terrible. That is known.
THIS POST is scummy:

Three days till deadline. That means if I vote Telo now we could turn it around to some other person if she claims.

Really? already planning on quicklynching someone else?
the replace is null.
But.. honestly.. I dont think Tracy's play is that scummy. It seems OK.

I have a townread on her.

Which brings us back to .. Sucrose? Fuji, maybe? I must be wrong about one of the other three.
Ill look more later.. but I am leaning one of those two. Maybe both.
And I am pretty interested in lynching one of the LAST four. I think RachMarie is a suboptimal play.

[PiggyGal15]

Bunny turning up town is a slight surprise, but I guess reading it over it was kind of obvious.

How was it obvious? And I'm still waiting for your reply to my post 495.

If you read Bunny's ISO with her as town in mind, it's obvious. There's not much more I can say. Why does it matter? It's not like I ever had a strong scum read on her, she was just null.

And I thought for sure I answered that o.O
And I can't remember why. The feels I have for scumSucrose are too strong for me to worry about small fish like that.

(pssst, camn, Sucrose is the one that's gonna turn up scum. You should vote for her.)

I'm too tired to do a beautifully constructed case of links and quotes. Go read her ISO, she's a sheep and a parrot (so I guess she's a sherrot? Or a pareep? Pareep sounds like a pokemon xD)

[DrippingGoofball]

Mmmmm

I want RachMarie to be lynched more, not less, after reading camn's post.

[DrippingGoofball]

Not seeing Sucrose as scum.

[Fujiko]

@ Huntress How can you be sure that is their only PR? We don't even know how many scum there are in this game? We can guess based on the size of the game, but it is a guess not a for sure know.

I can't see this as anything other than feigning ignorance in light of:

I went and double checked the front page and yes it appears that scum have daytalk. Sorry I missed that in the first read. However I still feel pretty confident about my read on Telo. Especially her reaction after I voted her.

In order to get to the information in the first scum pm in which it makes it clear there is daytalk, you have to get past the setup information in which it clearly states how many scum there are and the structure of the scum team.

Very good catch.

The Telo-Rachmarie crossvoting... I can buy it from telo.. but Rachmarie never jumped off! Is she that savvy as scum? To hold on all the way to the lynch? Looking at her ISO it seems like a legit read... but obv it could be a bus. But a VERY GOOD bus, imo, if it is.

I disagree. By the time she would have had to jump off - the last few votes - we had a decent idea the lynch was going to happen. If it didn't, some sort of viable counterwagon would have had to emerge, and that could have been a good time to jump off. No harm to her in staying on - if there was any point in jumping, another bus would have pulled up alongside.

VOTE: RachMarie

[TraceyLyn11]

So you think that I worked hard to build a Piggy-wagon, exonerated her on a fake dayvig gambit, and turned around to whip up a wagon against my scumbuddy Telo? Seriously.

It amuses me that out of all of Huntress's post, the part about you is the only part you seem to have focused on.

To answer your question, though, I don't think that's particularly unlikely. Do I think it happened? I don't know - I'm still mulling that over.

Nice try straw manning me, though!

[RachMarie]

I was focusing on the daytalk part not reading the whole thing with ALL of the potential roles etc. BTW I did re read just that part carefully a couple of hours ago. There are TWO PRs one which is chosen at random from a long list of possibles, and the GM.

I would be happy to provide links to scum games if you would like. Bah ya all are so off base here.

Ok back to do what I planned to do and hopefully that answers DGB's questions and others.

[RachMarie]

I should take a screen shot so ya all see how zoomed in my mafia tab IS. I have to scroll side to side and up and down to get more details, so the text is big enough for me to read.

Just have to figure out how to post it since it is not a link

[RedCoyote]

I love RedCoyote. Did you see how he compiles the votecounts in post 2?

For my ladies? Anything. Changing your red to pink as well.

---

Vote Count 2 - 3

• RachMarie

  (5) (DrippingGoofball - Tammy - Apokalyptika - Huntress - Fujiko)
  
  
  Sucrose
  (1) (PiggyGal15)
  
  
  Not Voting
  (9) (RachMarie - Amrun - Brandi - camn - springlullaby - TraceyLyn11 -

  Fujiko

  - Eidolon -

  Huntress

  - Seastormjt - Sucrose)

With fifteen alive, it takes eight to lynch.

Current Deadline:

(expired on 2012-10-23 20:07:00)

[camn]

sorry.. I forgot. I meant to use 'darkred'

but 'pink' certainly doesnt fit for confscum.

[springlullaby]

@Rachmarie, who do you think are scum now?

I mostly agree with camn though. Looking back, Rachmarie's vote on Telo looks legit, and I think she could have jumped off of it without looking scummy, but yet stayed.
Noobscum distancing is a crap tell too.

I also think Huntress is prolly town, seeing that she unvoted and started whiteknighting Telo very near lynch. I don't think scum would do that if the lynch is going ahead anyway.
Fujiko is prolly town too, seeing that she was kinda the only wagon that was ever close to competing with Telo's, that improves her chances.
--------------

Now, on one hand I have a difficult time wrapping my head around Telo's play in light of daytalk on the other Telo being scum PR must be accounted for, which only makes her play more baffling.
It is possible that a gambit has taken place, since scum role cop sounds meh in this setup - and if power bussing has taken place, I'd say probably DGB-Brandi-Camn, but I'd prefer to leave that can of worms alone for now as I think the earlier waggoner's looks reasonably townie.

The other hypothesis is that the scumteam is relatively inexperienced and don't know what they are doing. Right now that would be what I'd go for since it also fits my earliest suspicions

TraceyLyn11: bad vote on Telo with hardly any mention of Telo herself at all, Traceylyn comes in and leaves her vote on? That strikes me as unlikely town, especially since in the time leading to the lynch she has made no further commentary on the subject beside a half supportive note on Huntress's whiteknighting.
Apokalyptika: Paying for Mathgirl's sins, doesn't say anything during the end of the day and lukewarm vote on Rach is meh.
Seastormjt: Out of the people not voting Telo, I think she looks the worst, her vote on Huntress reads as out of nowhere to me too.
Sucrose: Hammer on Telo is meh. Although redeeming point is that reading her she is very friendly to Teo, which strikes me as less likely to be scum.

Vote Traceylynn

BTW, anytime I reread Brandi, my scumdar jumps up. Putting it there to say I told you so if she ends up flipping scum.

[DrippingGoofball]

It amuses me that out of all of Huntress's post, the part about you is the only part you seem to have focused on.

This may cut into your amusement, but I actually agree with the other parts, so I didn't mention them.

[DrippingGoofball]

Noobscum distancing is a crap tell too.

I think it's an ace tell.

[DrippingGoofball]

Now, on one hand I have a difficult time wrapping my head around Telo's play in light of daytalk on the other Telo being scum PR must be accounted for, which only makes her play more baffling.

I suspect her buddies were baffled as well, so there may be some bits of coaching in the thread leaking through. Maybe Sucrose, actually. I'm going to re again with that in mind when I get back home later today.

bad vote on Telo with hardly any mention of Telo herself at all, Traceylyn comes in and leaves her vote on? That strikes me as unlikely town, especially since in the time leading to the lynch she has made no further commentary on the subject beside a half supportive note on Huntress's whiteknighting.
Apokalyptika: Paying for Mathgirl's sins, doesn't say anything during the end of the day and lukewarm vote on Rach is meh.
Seastormjt: Out of the people not voting Telo, I think she looks the worst, her vote on Huntress reads as out of nowhere to me too.
Sucrose: Hammer on Telo is meh. Although redeeming point is that reading her she is very friendly to Teo, which strikes me as less likely to be scum.

BTW, anytime I reread Brandi, my scumdar jumps up. Putting it there to say I told you so if she ends up flipping scum.

I see your point of view. Again, I will re-read tonight with this in mind. Good observations.

[TraceyLyn11]

@Spring: I doubt this'll make any difference as it isn't provable, but I asked RC to keep the deadline as it was before I got my role PM. I was tight on time as was, and I didn't want to have to deal with catching up on what would have been no more than a couple days.

Speaking of my catching up, two ISO's done... >_> I've been going pretty in-depth, so to save time, I'll start skimming and trimming in order to save some time.

@DGB: Why do you think it's odd that you'd pull a gambit such as this? Obviously you're biased, but I'm curious. I thought you were well-known for gambits and doing the unordinary.

[Fujiko]

I was focusing on the daytalk part not reading the whole thing with ALL of the potential roles etc. BTW I did re read just that part carefully a couple of hours ago. There are TWO PRs one which is chosen at random from a long list of possibles, and the GM.

Setup Information

Ladies Night will use a Semi-Open setup with only normal roles.

Setup

1

Mafia Godmother

1

Mafia Power Role

(Randomly selected from the pool of: Doctor, Framer, Roleblocker, Role Cop, Strongwoman)

2

Mafia Goons

[springlullaby]

^^
Lol this is why I always feel extra guilty entertaining suspicions about DGB.
Having "good observations" from her is like receiving a pat on the head from you grandma or something.

[Fujiko]

Re my last post (615)...

Just reread what Rach is saying. I think we're actually in agreement - she just phrased it differently. I thought she was trying to say there were two power roles _plus_ the GM.

Whether or not the GM is a power role - at least to me, it's just semantics. We all know and agree (I think) that the remaining mafia are 1 GM, two goons, and that's it.

[Eidolon]

hi all, just posting to say i'm here. i'll be back later today to post analysis.

[Seastormjt]

Active lurking because I'm really busy :/ Still don't think Sucrose is scum, though, she reads pretty newbtown to me. I have to look again at TraceyLyn, but I don't remember liking flinter all that much (pretty sure that's who she replaced???)

[Sucrose]

Alright, I just finished a quick read-through of the interactions between Telo and everyone else, and Bunnylover and City Electric's reads. Unfortunately the latter two didn't talk much.

Telo readthrough:

Telo's first post is faking ignorance about the number of scum.
Huntress quickly corrects her. (A point for huntress, because I tend to think scum would be more happy to sit back and let a townie do the correcting, it draws more attention to the fake ignorance)

Telo RVSs RachMarie

Telo's #91 where she wonders if Rachmarie deleted is somewhat suspicious due to her earlier faked ignorance about the game

Fujiko attacks Telo early on, in a decidedly non-fake seeming way.

As Tammy points out, Telo early on is afraid to express an opinion on Piggy. Major point for piggy.

In #192 Telo gives out a bunch of reads. There's probably scum buried somewhere in the pile of Piggy, Spring, DBG,

Bunnylover

and Apokalyptica that she gives as her scumreads.
There could be scum in her townreads pile of RachMarie, Fujiko, and Amrun, but I'm a lot less certain on that.

Reading on I'm getting more and more doubtful Fujiko could be scum with Telo.

I most definitely get the feeling Piggy is not scum with Telo. There's no way.

Bunnylover thought Fujiko was scummy.

Spring calls Telo, "derp" along with Piggy. Not sure if that's scummy by itself.

The interaction between Brandi and Telo does not at all seem like two scum.

Point in Tracey's favor: she doesn't take her vote off of Telo when replacing in, even though she'd have a

very

easy excuse to.

Conclusion:

Fujiko has dropped off my scumlist

RachMarie could have been bussing Telo. Brandi less likely, it would require some good acting.

I'm fairly suspicious of Katty Bard. I found the first post from Mathgirl absolutely non-opinionated, and therefore scummy, and I've seen nothing townish from the slot, only null. Also, I know people are going to disagree, but in my opinion, slots that get passed around like hot potatoes tend to be scum. I'll also admit that almost all players in this game are either not pinging my scumdar, or else pinging it but then making posts that I'm sure are town. (like TraceyLynn and Seastorm)

Vote: Apokalyptika

I'll reply to D2 posts in my next post so as not to wall.

[PiggyGal15]

Wait, that slot has had two replacements already? Mkay, confscum right there. If anyone needs a case, you need to play more mafia, town slots are never passed around that much and if she does turn up town, I am going to have a bitch-slapping-mud-fight that I'm sure RedCoyote will invite all his friends to come watch with me against the entirety of that slot for doing something only scum ever do.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Apokalyptika

[PiggyGal15]

EBWOP: I'll start baking the cookies ^_^

[Sucrose]

Personally I'm pretty confident that Bunnylover was the scum kill, and City Electric was the Vig.

Goof, you make me sad not including me in any of your reads

My reads are pretty much the same as yesterday, Bunny turning up town is a slight surprise, but I guess reading it over it was kind of obvious.

VOTE: Sucrose
She's today's vote girls. Let's all lynch another scum today, kay?

You are way too overconfident in your reads, Piggy.

Sorry Tammy. There's a day and half left, and there's not going to be any point in dragging this out any longer.

Why did the fact that there was a day and a half left mean that you had to hammer just then, when there were still things outstanding, instead of waiting? I don't get it. Although your next post implied that you were trying to stop Telo talking. Why didn't you want her to respond to the questions she had been asked?

Oh come on, what were we going to get out of any of Telo's responses by that point? She was either scum or so anti-town she should have been lynched anyway. She turned out to be caught scum, she wouldn't have told us anything useful. I hammered because I was frothy-mouthed with rage at the No-Claim stance. A day and a half is pretty close to deadline, there's no point in dragging things out to the last few hours once you've gotten the claim (or in this case not), especially with someone who's outrageously scummy.

I can also see an alternative reality where DGB and Piggy are scum together.

That'd be some damn fine acting.

Too fine

.

Active lurking because I'm really busy :/ Still don't think Sucrose is scum, though, she reads pretty newbtown to me. I have to look again at TraceyLyn, but I don't remember liking flinter all that much (pretty sure that's who she replaced???)

Unfortunately I'm not at all new, though I did just come back from a long hiatus. But thanks I guess.

[DrippingGoofball]

slots that get passed around like hot potatoes tend to be scum.

As someone who replaced in 4372184728749328 scum slots vs 3 town slots, I agree.