Newbie 1289 - Game Over!

[buldermar]

Tierce, when can we be expecting your comments?

[Xalxe]

It's funny because you ignored me.

[buldermar]

Thanks for the answers.

RedRabbit's focus was on Delta's alignment theory. According to Delta's read, vendetta, myself, CD, and Leonshade were scum since they never came to defend him due to our votes on buldermar. Delta showed his hand.

RedRabbit's take in post #312 says because of Delta's announcement, scum will jump over to the Delta bandwagon. More specifically one scum will jump, one will stay.

The final results read that CD and Leonshade switched to Delta and voted him. vendetta stayed on buldermar and I unvoted. According to Delta's theory, scum would split one voting for Delta and one voting (or was voting) for buldermar. That leaves CD or Leonshade as scum and vendetta or myself as scum.

To answer your question on why I think RedRabbit was killed, he already had a bigger scumread on Leonshade. Perhaps your theory of Leonshade killing him as a result of this is correct. But because scum would know we are asking this question (why was RedRabbit killed), we would easily look to the Leonshade read RedRabbit had and lynch another townie. Since CD and Leonshade both moved over to the Delta lynch, that would leave CD as scum. You can read into that, or it can be looked at as a WIFOM argument.

Since Delta turned town, I will go along with his theory and try to find one scum. Since I am town, I will vote for the other half of the buldermar/unvote group.

Vote: Xalxe

I will have to assume vendetta did not perform any night action, but his partner obviously is in tune to the Delta & RedRabbit alignment discussion.

Thank you for taking your time writing this post. I have a few comments, if you don't mind.

Nightkills often boils down to "hardcore" WIFOM. When someone does something during daytime, you have meta of that player to rely on to determine whether it is more likely to mean A than B. However, when someone is killed during nighttime, you have to take into consideration the meta of each and every possible scum-permutation and how that affects what should be interpreted from the nightkill. In other words: a question such as "why was RedRabbit killed?" makes no sense, because the reason for RedRabbit being killed very well could depend on who is scum. Some might kill him because he was on to something; others might kill him because he wasn't anywhere near the truth. I'd be surprised if there is a tendency of either.

I don't mean to discourage you altogether, I just wanted to point this out so that you can take it into consideration.

Also, when you analyse, you always want to do it from the perspective of you being town. If you are town, analysing it from that perspective resembles the true distribution of roles better (i.e. a more accurate analysis). If you are scum, you don't want to do the work for town and in worst case prove why you're the optimal lynch, for instance. Tierce can correct me if this is wrong, btw.

[Airick10]

You are correct and I eluded to it being a WIFOM argument.

Xalxe's answer to the RedRabbit question is the one half of the WIFOM argument. I presented the other half as a potential answer. The question of "Why RedRabbit was killed?" does hold some barring logically as it is one of three bits of concrete information that we have on this game. 1) DeltaBacon was town. 2) RedRabbit was town. 3) Scum chose to kill RedRabbit. So it's a reasonable and logical question to ask why. Scum knows (or should know) that we will dissect why RedRabbit was killed. You're saying it doesn't make any sense because it could vary on who is scum. That's true, but perhaps there is a clue out there that can help us find that scum. In my view, it's not a one way thing but I certainly understand your position.

[Cheery Dog]

It's funny because you ignored me.

I believe that just shows he is true to his word... but it's not something that needs to be happening, although he has said he is doing this, it's still extremely anti-town to be ignoring people.

[Xalxe]

It's funny because you ignored me.

I believe that just shows he is true to his word... but it's not something that needs to be happening, although he has said he is doing this, it's still extremely anti-town to be ignoring people.

I thought he said that he'd be ignoring anything not related to the game. Oh well, I was wrong.

[buldermar]

It's funny because you ignored me.

I believe that just shows he is true to his word... but it's not something that needs to be happening, although he has said he is doing this, it's still extremely anti-town to be ignoring people.

I am true to my word, yes. Xalxe is free to step forward and apologize for his insulting one liners. I may reconsider my position, should he choose to do so. I don't care

what

you think it is - I'm not going to be a doormat for a random person just because he's an established player who happens to know the mod and some of the players of this game.

[buldermar]

You are correct and I eluded to it being a WIFOM argument.

Xalxe's answer to the RedRabbit question is the one half of the WIFOM argument. I presented the other half as a potential answer. The question of "Why RedRabbit was killed?" does hold some barring logically as it is one of three bits of concrete information that we have on this game. 1) DeltaBacon was town. 2) RedRabbit was town. 3) Scum chose to kill RedRabbit. So it's a reasonable and logical question to ask why. Scum knows (or should know) that we will dissect why RedRabbit was killed. You're saying it doesn't make any sense because it could vary on who is scum. That's true, but perhaps there is a clue out there that can help us find that scum. In my view, it's not a one way thing but I certainly understand your position.

Alright, that's a good point about it being one of three concrete bits of information. I've always just thought of it as pure WIFOM, but perhaps that's not optimal because it

does

resemble a non-random decision from a particular scum-permutation. However, I want answers from Tierce before I'll personally speculate in this.

[izakthegoomba]

Votecount 2.01

Tierce (1) - JasonWazza
Xalxe (1) - Airick10
Leonshade (1) - Xalxe
buldermar (0) -

none

Airick10 (0) -

none

Cheery Dog (0) -

none

JasonWazza (0) -

none

No Lynch (0) -

none

Not voting (4) - buldermar, Tierce, Cheery Dog, Leonshade

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline: (expired on 2012-11-04 16:50:01)

[Xalxe]

Izak, does my vote not count?

[izakthegoomba]

Fixed.

[Cheery Dog]

Refer to post #255. Delta says he is playing scummy to lure scum to defend him. His theory was that since buldermar had the other votes, scum most likely lies between them all (vendetta, myself, CD, and Leonshade).

My vote was on buldermar due to his request to Tierce to replace out of the game which I thought was quite a scummy move. I explained in my post #271 that I accepted his response and did not continue with the request on Tierce. So I unvoted.

I unvoted buldermar (off Delta's suspecion list in his eyes) and always believed Delta to be town (defending him). Thus, I would imagine in Delta's eyes my unvote was a scummy move.

I had forgotten what delta's apparent play was (mainly because I doubt it would have worked like he wanted - but I guess we'll find that out at at this games completion).
So I guess I never applied the question to context, though I do still find it interesting that you applied someone elses views to your own movements - but I guess people do that, and I would say it is alignment neutral.

[Tierce]

It never rains but it pours. Came down with something yesterday, give me a couple of days to get my bearings and actually know what I'm posting.

[JasonWazza]

OK Airicks analysis seems town to me.

Buldermar i think you need to get over the Xalxe stuff for the good of the town.

Not quite sure what i think of everyone else atm, but Tierce still feels slightly scummy to me, and she is the best i have got.

[Leonshade]

@Airick:

I'm a bit confused. Are you going with Delta's theory simply because he flipped town?

[Airick10]

Yes, for two reasons.

- He was correct in his claim as townie and so far his theory has not been disproven.

- I do not see any other scum reads during this day so far to say who is scum or not. I agree with JasonWazza's take on Tierce, but hasn't really gotten any legs, especially while Tierce is hibernating.

Working with the facts we know, I am going along with the theory unless I get a glaring scum read on someone else. I am looking for one scum today.

[Leonshade]

- I do not see any other scum reads during this day so far to say who is scum or not. I agree with JasonWazza's take on Tierce, but hasn't really gotten any legs, especially while Tierce is hibernating.

This is a good point. We don't have much to go on, so we need to go with what little we have. I don't really buy Delta's theory, but were it true, I would have to vote for CD, knowing that I'm town. Jason's case, which is still better than anything I have, indicates Tierce and either me or CD. CD is the common denominator in both of these cases.

VOTE: CheeryDog

[buldermar]

Buldermar i think you need to get over the Xalxe stuff for the good of the town.

He is free to apologize for the good of the town.

[buldermar]

- I do not see any other scum reads during this day so far to say who is scum or not. I agree with JasonWazza's take on Tierce, but hasn't really gotten any legs, especially while Tierce is hibernating.

This is a good point. We don't have much to go on, so we need to go with what little we have. I don't really buy Delta's theory, but were it true, I would have to vote for CD, knowing that I'm town. Jason's case, which is still better than anything I have, indicates Tierce and either me or CD. CD is the common denominator in both of these cases.

VOTE: CheeryDog

Some of the points made by Jason are yet to be refuted by Tierce. Do you have reason to refute these points or, alternatively, why do you think CD is a better choice than Tierce?

[Leonshade]

- I do not see any other scum reads during this day so far to say who is scum or not. I agree with JasonWazza's take on Tierce, but hasn't really gotten any legs, especially while Tierce is hibernating.

This is a good point. We don't have much to go on, so we need to go with what little we have. I don't really buy Delta's theory, but were it true, I would have to vote for CD, knowing that I'm town. Jason's case, which is still better than anything I have, indicates Tierce and either me or CD. CD is the common denominator in both of these cases.

VOTE: CheeryDog

Some of the points made by Jason are yet to be refuted by Tierce. Do you have reason to refute these points or, alternatively, why do you think CD is a better choice than Tierce?

I'm not going to refute Jason's points. I just have nothing to add to Jason's case, and I don't want to sheep him just yet. I am looking forward to Tierce's response, though.

[Xalxe]

Buldermar i think you need to get over the Xalxe stuff for the good of the town.

He is free to apologize for the good of the town.

I am sorry I bruised your inflated ego.

More words coming later, in class now.

[Cheery Dog]

why did I just attempt to read this game again, now I'm even more confused.

I'm just going to go with my assumption at the start of this day, unless something else presents itself.

VOTE: leonshade

[izakthegoomba]

Votecount 2.02

Leonshade (2) - Xalxe, Cheery Dog
Tierce (1) - JasonWazza
Xalxe (1) - Airick10
Cheery Dog (1) - Leonshade
buldermar (0) -

none

Airick10 (0) -

none

JasonWazza (0) -

none

No Lynch (0) -

none

Not voting (2) - buldermar, Tierce

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline: (expired on 2012-11-04 16:50:01)

[Tierce]

...7 days? I didn't realize the deadline was down to 14. Post later tonight.

[Cheery Dog]

We still shouldn't have this much inactivity for one week into day two even if we had three weeks for it.

requesting prods on all players except tierce