Newbie 1289 - Game Over!

[Leonshade]

Nothing to really talk about. This game is confusing. We need to get a wagon going. Since Jason has an actual case on someone, I'll sheep him.

VOTE: Tierce

[Xalxe]

Yep, good with my vote.

[izakthegoomba]

Prods going out tonight if people haven't posted, activity overall needs to be higher.

Votecount 2.03

Leonshade (2) - Xalxe, Cheery Dog
Tierce (2) - JasonWazza, Leonshade
Xalxe (1) - Airick10
Cheery Dog (0) -

none

buldermar (0) -

none

Airick10 (0) -

none

JasonWazza (0) -

none

No Lynch (0) -

none

Not voting (2) - buldermar, Tierce

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline: (expired on 2012-11-04 16:50:01)

[Tierce]

Alright, let's do this. Been a struggle to find time and patience for this game, and that's something I shouldn't be doing in the IC position. Should be done now that I'm caught up.

I'm not going back on this read on PaperSpirit/JasonWazza; I've seen the newbie No Lynch Towntell in a lot of games and it still has to prove me wrong.

I had a Townread on BT. Namely, things like this:

I do not agree with your [Tierce's] read on Sylvant/ovyo, but it is still early. I do find it odd that Sylvant voted PaperSpirit after PaperSpirit's post about a no-lynch.

You disagree but you find it odd. Which is it? 'Odd' needs elaboration.

show that he is actually trying to perceive motivations, and then he follows up in this kind of thing. It's a steady flow of interaction, shows thought on a deeper level than superficial fakeness.

That read flipped because I thought Natural_river's behavior was indicative of scum should Deltabacon be scum; but his Townflip throws that theory to the dust, and I frankly can't make sense of Natural_river/fish-riding-a-bike-2000/MrJamesWatson to figure out any potential different alignments there. The latter two are likely Town (Jason and Leonshade--go reread ovyo, that is a lost Town newbie), but Cheery Dog? BT Townread would say so.

I want to call buldermar Town as well; even though the Deltabacon theory fell through, I do still like the way he behaved before and throughout it. I can't look at Post 281 and think scum knowing Natural_river/MrJamesWatson/fish's alignment would look at things that thoroughly.

This leaves me a possible BT/Cheery Dog, vendetta/Xalxe and Airick.


Noting that Airick unvoted vendetta at L-1; he didn't follow up on vendetta after the latter spoke up, instead just declaring V/LA.

Post 177 shows that Airick is now completely ignoring vendetta, who he had aavote on until he went on holidays. I don't think this is a natural progression; buldermar was at L-3, so was vendetta, and Airick ignores the reaction he was allegedly waiting for and jumps on buldermar. The only comment he has on vendetta is:

I suspect there is one scum between buldermar, Tierce, and vendetta. The other scum is quietly letting them take over the game. Let one scum stir the pot and distract the town, while the other just waits.

So... why ignore the scumread you were previously voting for? While vendetta didn't post in the meantime, it's glaring that Airick is now paying attention to events that have happened since his last post, but did not mention once in Post 202.

I know this looks like a scummy move, especially to Delta's eyes as I'm backing off the buldermar lynch and not voting on Delta. Frankly, I do not have a solid scum read at this point and as I said, I don't want to vote on somebody who I do not think is scum.

What happened to his Tierce and vendetta reads?

And he doesn't really go about Xalxe in any significant manner. :/

An aside:

Tierce or mod (whoever can answer this) - since vendetta was replaced during the night, let's say vendetta had a night action available. Would vendetta or Xalxe have the chance to perform the night action? If it was vendetta, then I can assume he was inactive and did not do any night action?

I don't see any Town motivation to ask this, as we know there was a kill and whether or not vendetta performed it is irrelevant since there are two scum. I am, however, kind of tempted to call Airick goon to Xalxe/vendetta's rolecop.

Since Delta turned town, I will go along with his theory and try to find one scum.

Since I am town

, I will vote for the other half of the buldermar/unvote group.

Vote: Xalxe

I will have to assume vendetta did not perform any night action, but his partner obviously is in tune to the Delta & RedRabbit alignment discussion.

This is

posturing

and an easy excuse for using someone else's reads. There is also no way Town can be sure (or should even assume) that vendetta was not active during night, or that izak didn't allow the slot's partner to perform an action for him in case Xalxe/vendetta is scum.


On RedRabbit:

Why

did a newbie die? Was there some kind of power role hint? I don't think so. He was not clearly Town. He went after vendetta and buldermar, and has Post 272 where he shows suspicion of Airick.


Alright, let's tackle this:

But i'm kinda confused with the kill, Tierce is leading the charge mostly in this game so most scum would have likely killed her (not to mention she is the IC that is like newb kill central) yet she is still alive, which makes me concerned for 3 reasons
1) The obv-town read on my slot may not be from experience but a mix of experience and prior knowledge
2) That she lead a lynch on Delta, even though she said it was more likely to be scum in CD/Leon
3) Is steering as far away from a CD/Leon lynch in her recent posting.

All this makes me think that the scum are in CD/Leon/Tierce, cause Tierce would then have reason to steer lynches away from the 2 slots.

With all that crap out, i am somewhat confident in this vote

VOTE: Tierce

1) Not much I can tell you on that one except that you are wrong, and that while I have remarked on such newbie Towntells before as scum, being aware that they exist also helps me spot them as

Town

.

2) Cheery Dog/Leonshade + Deltabacon team was dependent on Deltabacon's flip, as he was the keystone. If my mind goes that the scumteam is either {Deltabacon, Cheery Dog} or {Deltabacon, Leonshade}, I will lynch Deltabacon. Makes perfect sense as a decision in such circumstances.

3) Deltabacon flipped Town and I am not convinced BT/Cheery Dog or ovyo/Leonshade are scum.

(Please do give me some credit, if I was bussing I would not balk at it like that, it's a silly idea.)

The RedRabbit kill is interesting, taking into account that I was eyeing him as a potential suspect for the way he was (without checking, this is from memory) too eagerly following me around with a strong voice. This means I have to review things in full.

Could you provide quotes of his supposed following you around?

The following two:

I think I'm actually starting to see how Tierce came up with the "obvtown" on Paper/Fish.

The way I'm seeing it is: If Paper was newb and town and didn't really know how to play the game then it is more likely than not that he would have voted no lynch/waited to vote. It's a rookie mistake when playing this format.
If Paper was newb and scum and didn't really know how to play the game he would have voted randomly just to try and get a lynch of a townie or would have been instructed by his scum buddy to do so (i.e. not vote no lynch).

That he wasn't informed by someone else leads me to think that he was on his own, therefore town. Tierce could be scum and the informed minority, but there is another option. Her case for not telling what her read was specifically had little to do with what the read was or how she got it and more to do with the fact that she would not be bullied into giving somebody what they want just because they asked for it imo. I think this is the right move and goes some way to me trusting Tierce. It's actually why I called her on the exact same thing earlier. To see if she'd cave.

Ok, I'm buying it. I still have a scum read on ovyo/Mr.JamesWatson/Leonshade, (stronger than before), but I'll join your wagon in order to get the lynch today.


UNVOTE: ovyo
VOTE: DeltaBacon.

Note: DeltaBacon is now L-1.

It's not much, no. And now that I've reread him somewhat, he had some pretty innocent questions that were quite indicative of newbTown in hindsight, but those still don't explain very well why he was the chosen kill--things like who he suspected might be more fitting, and that final D1 interaction with Airick might be telling.


As for the Xalxe and buldermar debacle: please, buldermar. This is a game, and tempers may flare. I am quite certain that Xalxe didn't mean anything personally, and denying us valuable interactions hurts the Town. Save it for post-game. As for you, Xalxe, you should know better. Newbies aren't necessarily thick-skinned and they are trying to learn. Please be kind.


VOTE: Airick10

[Tierce]

Cheery Dog: Stop carrying the banner for a dead case. It's no longer valid and you are better than that. Who is scum?

Leonshade, you can do better.

Xalxe... oh wait, you're probably scum.

[Xalxe]

As I said way back when, I support an Airick wagon as well and will do the readings tonight/tomorrow.

[Cheery Dog]

Cheery Dog: Stop carrying the banner for a dead case. It's no longer valid and you are better than that. Who is scum?

Everyone is

If I believe in it possibily being true then I'm happy with it, when people post more I may be able to get more out of them, but currently that's my largeest lead.

Otherwise airick because announcing you are doing something that is scummy looking to someone else still just looks weird.

[Tierce]

I count two people already who could be accompanying me in this Airick wagon instead of voting for that yellow-eyed feline.

[Cheery Dog]

Yes but I'm not currently happy joining the wagon you are leading after yesterday's delta flip.

[Tierce]

That "I am not joining a wagon led by someone who led a mislynch Yesterday" logic is bad. You did not seem any more convinced than I was that it was going to hit Town, so stop acting like people don't have the right to make mistakes. Going after Leonshade just because Deltabacon flipped Town and he suspected Leonshade is nonsensical, Deltabacon's Townflip does not make his reads correct, it just gives him a clean motivation. Why are Deltabacon's inherited reads better than your own?

[Tierce]

By the by, how do you feel about the fact that I just saw Airick come in, look through one Road to Rome thread (he's only playing in this game) for quite a long while, for a period long enough to say something... but he didn't?

Scum typically avoid certain moments of discussion. Someone doesn't want to come out and address the points brought against him.

[Cheery Dog]

Airick10: Last visited:Sun Oct 28, 2012 5:31 pm
that's 17 hours ago.

(if it helps I feel that I should check facts you are giving me)

I'm not going after Leonshade because delta flipped town and had him as a read, I'm going after him because I have that slot as possible scum. If any of the slots the idiot occupied are scum I would believe it is the last one they joined.

[Tierce]

Those listings aren't always correct. Click a few people in the Who is online section at the bottom of this page, then see if the hours match the present. They often don't.

Okay, seriously, explain in full why you think Leonshade is scum, because that's not making any sense.

[Tierce]

Airick10 Reading topic in The Road to Rome Mon 29 Oct 2012 00:10:08

Want more proof he's around?

[Airick10]

Throughout D1 and towards the end of D1, I had no significant reads. Yes, I voted vendetta early on and you have pointed out posts that I did find him suspecious, but I was not convinced he was scum. It was inevidable the town was going to lynch Delta, a vote on vendetta based on a gut feeling and what I believed to be some distraction work with theory talk would not meant anything at that time.

I don't see any Town motivation to ask this, as we know there was a kill and whether or not vendetta performed it is irrelevant since there are two scum. I am, however, kind of tempted to call Airick goon to Xalxe/vendetta's rolecop.

Are you trying to imply that having an idea if one or two people made the decision to kill RedRabbit is not town motivation? Why RedRabbit was killed matters as you elude to later on in your post quoting RedRabbit and gathering his reads. I am looking for one scum today and if I can look back and find information on vendetta and/or anyone else's interaction with RedRabbit is relevant.

This is posturing and an easy excuse for using someone else's reads. There is also no way Town can be sure (or should even assume) that vendetta was not active during night, or that izak didn't allow the slot's partner to perform an action for him in case Xalxe/vendetta is scum.

No, this is logic. You led the town on a Delta lynch that turned townie. The majority of the town threw away Delta's theory thinking it could not possibly work. So far, you have been proven wrong, not Delta.

If scum would split up off the buldermar vote and one goes to CD/LeonShade and one stays on buldermar or unvotes, then you have to look at those two pairs with one scum hiding in each. I am not scum, therefore my vote lies with Xalxe (the vendetta slot).

You are turning my vote into an emotional vote, where my vote is strictly logical. The question on if vendetta performed a night action or not is irrelevant on my vote. I asked the question because I'm looking for information. You are looking to rally a wagon based off what you think is an emotional read.

Xalxe - You mention in post 369 that you are trying to find a reason that RedRabbit was killed. Do you have any other further analysis?

[Airick10]

Really?

So there has been inactivity in this game over the weekend. I am waiting for responses as I had nothing more to say on my analysis. Please continue to log everytime I come in to see if anyone has posted anything in 48 hours or if I want to put a post up myself.

[Cheery Dog]

I know my slot is town, and lthough I know the cheater is an idiot, I'm just assuming that they weren't stupid enough to have an a scum slot and then bring another account into a known town slot - and given that paperspirit obvtowned Jason's slot (the only way I see it possible that it may not actually be town is if you (Tierce) are his partner and you told him in pregame chat to vote no lynch - but it doesn't feel like he copied something you said in pregame chat).
Then with the switch off delta and onto buldermar with two of the slots is telling me he must have found out the scumteam.

I played with Natural_river (thankfully without any other accounts) in a think twice game, he was a goon and voted his godfather. I'm therefore assuming he is likely to vote off a new found scum partner.
If Leonshade is scum the partner is buldermar.

[and there's the answer to whether airick is around or not - I don't need any more proof that him posting]

[Tierce]

If scum would split up off the buldermar vote and one goes to CD/LeonShade and one stays on buldermar or unvotes, then you have to look at those two pairs with one scum hiding in each. I am not scum, therefore my vote lies with Xalxe (the vendetta slot).

This division doesn't always happen.


@Cheery Dog: That logic is actually quite interesting--you're saying that our lovely cheater kept replacing into the game until he got a scum slot, to then eliminate the scumteam through his Town ones?

Yeah, you can be Town now (some more). But I still think you are very wrong about Leonshade and that that is not what happened. I don't have any clue what

did

happen, but I don't think that's the case.

[Cheery Dog]

@Cheery Dog: That logic is actually quite interesting--you're saying that our lovely cheater kept replacing into the game until he got a scum slot, to then eliminate the scumteam through his Town ones?

That is my opinion on what has happened yes.
but there is the option the cheater hadn't got a scum slot yet.

I also find oyvo's play in Micro 38 to have been different there than here, and I know they were a VT there.

but then I guess anygame you play that has Thor in it is probably different to any other game you have..

and now I want to UNVOTE: because now I'm second guessing myself and leaving my vote out while doing that has led me to trouble before.

[Tierce]

but then I guess anygame you play that has Thor in it is probably different to any other game you have..

*snerk*

You are more right there than you'd know.

[JasonWazza]

Alright, let's tackle this:

But i'm kinda confused with the kill, Tierce is leading the charge mostly in this game so most scum would have likely killed her (not to mention she is the IC that is like newb kill central) yet she is still alive, which makes me concerned for 3 reasons
1) The obv-town read on my slot may not be from experience but a mix of experience and prior knowledge
2) That she lead a lynch on Delta, even though she said it was more likely to be scum in CD/Leon
3) Is steering as far away from a CD/Leon lynch in her recent posting.

All this makes me think that the scum are in CD/Leon/Tierce, cause Tierce would then have reason to steer lynches away from the 2 slots.

With all that crap out, i am somewhat confident in this vote

VOTE: Tierce

1) Not much I can tell you on that one except that you are wrong, and that while I have remarked on such newbie Towntells before as scum, being aware that they exist also helps me spot them as

Town

.

2) Cheery Dog/Leonshade + Deltabacon team was dependent on Deltabacon's flip, as he was the keystone. If my mind goes that the scumteam is either {Deltabacon, Cheery Dog} or {Deltabacon, Leonshade}, I will lynch Deltabacon. Makes perfect sense as a decision in such circumstances.

3) Deltabacon flipped Town and I am not convinced BT/Cheery Dog or ovyo/Leonshade are scum.

(Please do give me some credit, if I was bussing I would not balk at it like that, it's a silly idea.)

First off thanks for finally getting to this, i kinda couldn't find much else to say after this

And all your responses look very indicative of town in my mind.

1) Main reason i pointed it out was to see if you had done it as scum (and whether or not you would say) the fact that you openly said that you have done it as scum makes me quite sure of you being town

2) But considering you were more confident of CD/Leon being scum, shouldn't they have been one of the one's you lynched?
My logic may be a bit off, but wouldn't lynching the more likely to be scum be better then the scum based on another player being scum?

3) Alright then I can believe that

(what is balking? I have never heard of the term)

Anyway, I am fairly certain that Tierce is town, and her case on Airick seems fairly solid (and Airicks responses aren't the best)

Yes but I'm not currently happy joining the wagon you are leading after yesterday's delta flip.

If Airick flips scum i will be likely voting you the next day for this really poor defense.

[Tierce]

2) But considering you were more confident of CD/Leon being scum, shouldn't they have been one of the one's you lynched?
My logic may be a bit off, but wouldn't lynching the more likely to be scum be better then the scum based on another player being scum?

No. Sometimes one does not vote the strongest scumread--voting the scumread whose flip gives

more

information can be a good decision. The point of the game isn't just to lynch scum, it is to eliminate

all

the scum. If we had lynched Cheery Dog and he flipped Town, for example, today we would still be considering a Deltabacon/Leonshade team, and it could lead to another mislynch.

For example, in the just finished Open 453, the Town had narrowed the scum to three people--me and two others. They did not think the other two were scum together, so they lynched

me

first and then hunted for my partner (who was actually neither of the two, but that's beside the point), because the only way the game made sense was with me being scum. That was the logic I was applying to that trio.

To balk:
1. To stop short and refuse to go on: The horse balked at the jump.
2. To refuse obstinately or abruptly: She balked at the very idea of compromise.

[Airick10]

Referencing players and playing style in other games does not mean they will play the same way here. Such as telling the town they know someone's style, so they are obvtown. I've seen this throughout this game and I frown on it. My two cents on that... cling! cling!

I agree with Tierce in saying that she (and myself) do not have any idea what actually happened with the cheater. I can understand CD's theory, but I don't see any facts sitting behind it.

If scum would split up off the buldermar vote and one goes to CD/LeonShade and one stays on buldermar or unvotes, then you have to look at those two pairs with one scum hiding in each. I am not scum, therefore my vote lies with Xalxe (the vendetta slot).

This division doesn't always happen.

Therefore it simply just can not happen?

[Airick10]

I should clear up that in referencing players, I was responding to CD's take on ovyo's play in another game.

[Tierce]

If scum would split up off the buldermar vote and one goes to CD/LeonShade and one stays on buldermar or unvotes, then you have to look at those two pairs with one scum hiding in each. I am not scum, therefore my vote lies with Xalxe (the vendetta slot).

This division doesn't always happen.

Therefore it simply just can not happen?

I did not say that. I just think your vote is cheap and uses poor justification altogether, as the reasons you are presenting for voting Xalxe are based on math alone and you have long dropped whatever his predecessor did that was bugging you. My conclusion is that you 'lost' interest on an inactive slot because you didn't have weight to make a bus look good there and had rather see a mislynch go through. For someone who so opposed the Deltabacon lynch as you apparently did, there was a remarkable lack of pushing on

anyone else

, vendetta/Xalxe included. You were not voting at the end of D1.