Newbie 1289 - Game Over!

[izakthegoomba]

Votecount 2.05

Airick10 (3) - Tierce, JasonWazza, Xalxe
Xalxe (1) - Airick10
buldermar (1) - Cheery Dog
Leonshade (0) -

none

Tierce (0) -

none

Cheery Dog (0) -

none

JasonWazza (0) -

none

No Lynch (0) -

none

Not voting (2) - buldermar, Leonshade

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline: (expired on 2012-11-04 16:50:01)

[Cheery Dog]

buldermar, Cheery Dog, Leonshade

: Explain to me why you're not hammering Airick, and who should be lynched instead.

Or vote Airick.

I'm not hammering Airick yet becuase I am hoping we'll be able to get more information and discover a plausible buddy before someone ends up dying tonight. I'm currently thinking buldermar which is why I voted him. (although I probably won't get anything out of him since he's just gone V/LA)
I will hammer it before the deadline, but while we've still got a few days left I'm going to leave it sitting there.

[buldermar]

CD, what do you want my comment on? I think one but not both of Airick and Xalxe is scum (in accordance with the theory of Delta). This makes either of them a good lynch relative to lynching someone else, statistically speaking. Airicks analysis seemed sincere to me and he's been thinking more logically about the game than Xalxe, so I'd rather have Xalxe lynched, but I may be biased in my assessment because I personally dislike Xalxe.

[Xalxe]

Then vote me instead of leaving your vote dangling uselessly.

[Leonshade]

I'm willing to hammer Airick any time. If CD thinks there's something left to this day, though, I'll wait on him.

[Cheery Dog]

I don't know what is left of the day, seeing as I haven't found anything yet (although I've also failed to look)
I'm kinda just hoping there is something. If you feel there will be nothing, feel free to hammer.

@buldermar; nothing specific, I guess I was just seeing how you reacted to me placing my vote on you

[buldermar]

@buldermar; nothing specific, I guess I was just seeing how you reacted to me placing my vote on you

Fair enough.

[Leonshade]

It doesn't look like anything else will be achieved today.

VOTE: Airick

[izakthegoomba]

Votecount 2.06

Airick10 (4) - Tierce, JasonWazza, Xalxe , Leonshade
Xalxe (1) - Airick10
buldermar (1) - Cheery Dog
Leonshade (0) -

none

Tierce (0) -

none

Cheery Dog (0) -

none

JasonWazza (0) -

none

No Lynch (0) -

none

Not voting (1) - buldermar

Airick10,

Townie

, has been lynched.

Night 2 starts now. Deadline: (expired on 2012-11-06 15:10:56)

[izakthegoomba]

Tierce,

Cop

, has been killed.

Votecount 3.00

Xalxe (0) -

none

buldermar (0) -

none

Leonshade (0) -

none

Cheery Dog (0) -

none

JasonWazza (0) -

none

No Lynch (0) -

none

Not voting (5) - buldermar, JasonWazza, Xalxe , Leonshade, Cheery Dog

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. Deadline: (expired on 2012-11-20 18:46:42)

[Cheery Dog]

Given the change from not wanting to lynch Leon/me yesterday, I assume Tierce investigated him to be innocent.
Given the obvtown from page one on Jason's slot, buldermar/Xalxe team?

Although I'm not entirely sure about how obvtown wanting to start with a no-lynch is, I'm going to have to go through a few more old newbie games since I found one during the night (1273) where one of the scum team agreed with a town member that no-lynch was a good option.

[JasonWazza]

Cherry you miss one thing, she only got back one investigate, change preference or not, neither you or leon is cleared in the slightest because we don't know which one she cleared.

Though it does explain her change in preference.

[Cheery Dog]

I have to review a few things. As of now, I am not interested in lynching Leonshade; I'll have to mull on things a bit to see if I would ever support a Cheery Dog lynch.

This opening of the day post yesterday is why I believe it was Leon that was investigated.

I realise I am not clear except to myself, nor are you for that matter.
I will not be voting either of my current suspicions based on what I believe to be a breadcrumb of results until everyone else has checked in. and then we can all work out if I am reading this a breadcrumb correctly or not.

[JasonWazza]

To me (and this is likely just me) it seem like her plan fell through when delta flipped town (the big fight over her massive change in reads) and her plan after that wasn't necessarily to follow her delta scum plan, hence why I'm not thinking Leon is cleared, my thought is she said she was overly surprised of RR's death because he was suspect and she was overly trying to analyze his kill possibly because he was her invest (if that makes any sense whatsoever)

[buldermar]

In either case, we're looking at either a) Leonshade being town or b) at least one of Leonshade and Cheery Dog being town. I havn't thoroughly read all of her posts yet, but I'm only going to consider voting Cheery Dog if there are strong indicatives of her investigating Leonshade specifically (post 325 isn't strong enough imo).

Based on this I currently consider Xalxe or Jason the best options. I'm going to look into the possibility of a Jason-scum Cheery Dog+Leonshade-town scenario now.

[buldermar]

That is, Jason+Xalxe-scum.

---

Scum permutations on the conditions {50% of Leonshade being town} and {at least one of Leonshade and Cheery Dog being town}:

{Jason, Xalxe}
{Jason, Cheery Dog}
{Jason, ½Leonshade}
{Xalxe, Cheery Dog}
{Xalxe, ½Leonshade}

Weighted probabilities of being scum on the conditions {50% of Leonshade being town} and {at least one of Leonshade and Cheery Dog being town}:

Jason: 3
Xalxe: 3
Cheery Dog: 2
Leonshade: 1

[Cheery Dog]

To me (and this is likely just me) it seem like her plan fell through when delta flipped town (the big fight over her massive change in reads) and her plan after that wasn't necessarily to follow her delta scum plan, hence why I'm not thinking Leon is cleared, my thought is she said she was overly surprised of RR's death because he was suspect and she was overly trying to analyze his kill possibly because he was her invest (if that makes any sense whatsoever)

I believe her plan also went through with delta's town flip and I think she decided to investigate one of us to see where it was going.
I didn't realise what had caused the change, but my mind established that with Post 418, after I had carried on my theory of a possible buldermar-leonshade team, I suspected it then which caused my unvote (second thoughts) in post 419.

In any case, I will not be supporting a Leonshade lynch today.

[Xalxe]

I have to review a few things. As of now, I am not interested in lynching Leonshade; I'll have to mull on things a bit to see if I would ever support a Cheery Dog lynch.

First of all,

NOBODY VOTE IT IS LYLO AND WE DON'T WANT A QUICKHAMMER

. Now that that's out of the way even though 4/5 of us are experienced...

This clearly says that Leon is town due to Tierce's flip on her read on him. That means that we have 1 conf. town and four not.

If there is a Jailkeeper, claim in your next post, actions and all.

If there is, we've got a nice process of elimination for today. If not, that's fine. I should be clear that a JK claim is not auto-cleared, but it's something to work with.

(also I should note that mafia made a mistake in killing Tierce because I would've totally led a wagon on her today and you wouldn't have had to do shit)

[Leonshade]

@Xalxe: What would've been your reasons for wagoning Tierce?

[Cheery Dog]

First of all, NOBODY VOTE IT IS LYLO AND WE DON'T WANT A QUICKHAMMER. Now that that's out of the way even though 4/5 of us are experienced...

but I want to vote now..

Not really as I don't want a quickhammer to fall if I'm wrong with my team-guess at the moment and I choose the one that wasn't partners with Jason.
I'm going to go check more completed games to see if that obvtown call on Jason's slot based off his first post is actually true that only town actually does that.

@Leon, since two of us have declared you the most probable as having been investigated, what is your take on who the scumteam is likely to be?

[Cheery Dog]

Looking at the all the games on the first page in the completed newbie games section (only page 1 of each), I found the following games where somebody to vote no-lynch was mafia, so that 'obvtown' tell is now worthless to me.
newbie 1137, newbie 1127 & Newbie 1107

otherwise there was a game where no-lyncher was town
one I don't know the alignment of the no-lyncher because of the march crash
another where town voted no-lynch and mafia followed also voting it. (which is the same as the 1273 game I mentioned earlier)
I'd link these as well but I closed the tabs after I looked through them expecting it to be a possible true 'obvtown' tell. (they were all higher numbers than the three I just linked above)

And since that no-lynch=obvtown theory is disproven, it can explain why someone who had been called obvtown by the IC survived being nightkilled.
Although it doesn't explain why the cheater wanted too town slots - I'm going to assume that fish-riding-a-bike was actually a sibling of natural_river, which would explain the posting differentiations.

[buldermar]

Looking at the all the games on the first page in the completed newbie games section (only page 1 of each), I found the following games where somebody to vote no-lynch was mafia, so that 'obvtown' tell is now worthless to me.
newbie 1137, newbie 1127 & Newbie 1107

otherwise there was a game where no-lyncher was town
one I don't know the alignment of the no-lyncher because of the march crash
another where town voted no-lynch and mafia followed also voting it. (which is the same as the 1273 game I mentioned earlier)
I'd link these as well but I closed the tabs after I looked through them expecting it to be a possible true 'obvtown' tell. (they were all higher numbers than the three I just linked above)

And since that no-lynch=obvtown theory is disproven, it can explain why someone who had been called obvtown by the IC survived being nightkilled.
Although it doesn't explain why the cheater wanted too town slots - I'm going to assume that fish-riding-a-bike was actually a sibling of natural_river, which would explain the posting differentiations.

In Newbie 1137, the guy voting no lynch played 1-2 games before.
Newbie 1127 is a good example.
Newbie 1107 is a good example.

I don't follow what you deduce from your assumption of them being siblings.

[izakthegoomba]

The votecount is unchanged.

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. Deadline: (expired on 2012-11-20 18:46:42)

[Cheery Dog]

In Newbie 1137, the guy voting no lynch played 1-2 games before.
Newbie 1127 is a good example.
Newbie 1107 is a good example.

I don't follow what you deduce from your assumption of them being siblings.

I never actually looked at what the rest of the posts contained, just the vote no-lynch.

I deduced that that might be why they replaced in as town (my slot), then possible scum (Jason) and then again with another town slot (Leon).
It doesn't actually give me that much faith, but it has told my mind why Jason can still be on the scumteam.

[Leonshade]

@Cheery:

I don't have strong scumreads on anyone. Your point about the no-lynch not necessarily being town has been noted, but I'm still feeling Jason as town-ish. Out of Xalxe, buldermar and you, I could pick any two as scum. I'll have to do some re-reading, see if I can find something.