Newbie 1289 - Game Over!

[Cheery Dog]

@bulder, Xalxe is only confirmed scum to you (and probably Jason), the rest of us don't actually know your alignment.

Obviously - what's your point? I still have to analyse the game from what I know.

I stating why you having a confirmed scum doesn't mean it's not confirmed scum to everyone else.

The order of the votes is irrelevant. I fail to understand the point you're trying to make. Could you explain why the order would not be irrelevant?

If you are scum, you would know that I am town. You would not know who I was going to vote (could have been any of Jason/you/Xalxe at that time), if I picked the one that was town, you would be able to quickhammer with the other.

Though I do think it is most likely Xalxe/bulermar currently, out of the two and based on research I have just done, buldermar is the more likely scum out of the two.

What research led to this conclusion?

Researching my memory of Jason's play in 1276.
If he is not scum with Xalxe by why of Jason's meta (which he has also just proved by not hammering you), therefore since that both scum are within you/Xalxe/Jason, you're now confirmed scum to me. (for those not me, there's a still a small possibly I'm scum with Xalxe)
Leon is now doubly confirmed town for not hammering either of the wagons as well as the cop breadcrumb already pointed out.

[buldermar]

@bulder, Xalxe is only confirmed scum to you (and probably Jason), the rest of us don't actually know your alignment.

Obviously - what's your point? I still have to analyse the game from what I know.

I stating why you having a confirmed scum doesn't mean it's not confirmed scum to everyone else.

Yes - why would you state this? I never claimed it would.

The order of the votes is irrelevant. I fail to understand the point you're trying to make. Could you explain why the order would not be irrelevant?

If you are scum, you would know that I am town. You would not know who I was going to vote (could have been any of Jason/you/Xalxe at that time), if I picked the one that was town, you would be able to quickhammer with the other.

In that case there would be incentive only as scum to wait with the vote, and incentive only as town to place the vote immediately, right? Sorry, but I'm still not following.

Though I do think it is most likely Xalxe/bulermar currently, out of the two and based on research I have just done, buldermar is the more likely scum out of the two.

What research led to this conclusion?

Researching my memory of Jason's play in 1276.
If he is not scum with Xalxe by why of Jason's meta (which he has also just proved by not hammering you), therefore since that both scum are within you/Xalxe/Jason, you're now confirmed scum to me. (for those not me, there's a still a small possibly I'm scum with Xalxe)
Leon is now doubly confirmed town for not hammering either of the wagons as well as the cop breadcrumb already pointed out.

I don't mean to completely undermine your meta, but comparing to just one game seems unreliable.

[Cheery Dog]

Yes - why would you state this? I never claimed it would.

Because the way you said it was referring to him being confirmed scum for everyone. (while I realise there are no newbies here that are likely to be fooled, it's still something I felt needed pointed out)

In that case there would be incentive only as scum to wait with the vote, and incentive only as town to place the vote immediately, right? Sorry, but I'm still not following.

That's why I put it forward to myself in question format, I was listing that options of what might have caused you to vote there, and trying to figure out the motivation behind you doing it. I can see what you might gain from both the first two options still, I cannot find any town motivation for doing it (and that's not only because by voting you I have confirmed you to be scum, though that does help eliminate the paranoia that there was something I missed).

I don't mean to completely undermine your meta, but comparing to just one game seems unreliable.

When there is only one game (and a recent winning one at that), that's the best I can have on meta, it turned out to be fruitful.

[buldermar]

I stating why you having a confirmed scum doesn't mean it's not confirmed scum to everyone else.

That's fair. I don't have reason to point this out myself, though.

[buldermar]

Eh I misquoted. I wanted to quote this:

Because the way you said it was referring to him being confirmed scum for everyone. (while I realise there are no newbies here that are likely to be fooled, it's still something I felt needed pointed out)

[izakthegoomba]

Votecount 3.02

Xalxe (2) - buldermar, JasonWazza
buldermar (2) - Xalxe, Cheery Dog
Leonshade (0) -

none

Cheery Dog (0) -

none

JasonWazza (0) -

none

No Lynch (0) -

none

Not voting (1) - Leonshade

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. Deadline: (expired on 2012-11-20 18:46:42)

[JasonWazza]

I don't mean to completely undermine your meta, but comparing to just one game seems unreliable.

When there is only one game (and a recent winning one at that), that's the best I can have on meta, it turned out to be fruitful.

To be fair at the time it was my only scum meta game, though he could compare it to my town meta, however he was in the game he is using as meta so he would know more thoroughly how i act as scum.

Also how was it fruitful CD?

[Cheery Dog]

It's proved you're not scum with Xalxe.

[JasonWazza]

No me not flipping on Buldermar proved i am not scum with Xalxe, you gambled on that being true.

And if i am town all this just goes out the window.

But this makes me seriously wonder, had i voted bul, would you have voted Xalxe or would you have hammered bul?

You seem a bit timid with your vote at this point, if you think Xalxe is scum why not hammer him?

Granted Leon is confirmed but this is making me wonder at this point whether or not you are scum.

[Cheery Dog]

I'm always timid with votes in LYLO (unless PoE has left me with the obvious scum like in futurama mafia)

I would probably have done the same thing and ended up voting Xalxe based on how you did it last time. (though now I see you've got another completed scum game in newbie 1285, which I didn't know when I posted where you did vote your partner, not that you named a team there as far as I'm aware (because team naming on day 1 is weird).
Though I may also have ended up hammering due to the reason I thought buldermar was the scummier option besides my history with Jason was that he had responded to the threat of me placing a vote by placing a vote himself.

I'm also placing my thoughts out in the open.
new question we get to try and answer
Why did scum leave Tierce alive night 1? when she had considered the options of her dying that night would be to continue the plan of lynching me/Leon if delta had flipped scum with the if "I'm alive tomorrow this may change"
Do we have new scum, (which if vendatta, one of the team was inactive) deciding to wifom town into trying to lynch the IC before of a delta town flip, or is a team afraid of possible protection to the IC. (or both)
Possibly also they didn't think we would go through with the plan had the leader of it (being Tierce) died.

[JasonWazza]

So do you or do you not think that Xalxe is scum?

Cause you seem to be going round in circles right now.

[Cheery Dog]

I believe Xalxe to be more likely buldermar's partner, but I'm currently not ruling out the chance that's it is you.

but this discussion probably isn't helping me anyway.
damn LYLO, I'm going to go back through trying to read for the partner.

[Cheery Dog]

Ok let's try questions now.

OK Airicks analysis seems town to me.

Buldermar i think you need to get over the Xalxe stuff for the good of the town.

Not quite sure what i think of everyone else atm, but Tierce still feels slightly scummy to me, and she is the best i have got.

Anyway, I am fairly certain that Tierce is town, and her case on Airick seems fairly solid (and Airicks responses aren't the best)

Between this posts we had this post by Tierce, What exactly about that post made you completely switch your mind on those two people?

[Cheery Dog]

I was thinking about this last night, and about why RedRabbit was killed. There was no reason that I could see for him to be nightkilled, so I figured that it was due to his reads. And lookie at this post:

Ok, I'm buying it. I still have a scum read on ovyo/Mr.JamesWatson/Leonshade, (stronger than before), but I'll join your wagon in order to get the lynch today.


UNVOTE: ovyo
VOTE: DeltaBacon.

Note: DeltaBacon is now L-1.

Leonshade and Tierce were his scumreads. I'm thinking that this coupled with the lovely wine makes for an interesting case. And by that I mean VOTE: Leonshade

How did this post by redrabbit make Tierce his scumreads?
The last mention of Tierce I found in Redrabbit's ISO was a town read.

Also are you going to give your reasons for why you would have tried to lynch Tierce today?

[JasonWazza]

Ok let's try questions now.

OK Airicks analysis seems town to me.

Buldermar i think you need to get over the Xalxe stuff for the good of the town.

Not quite sure what i think of everyone else atm, but Tierce still feels slightly scummy to me, and she is the best i have got.

Anyway, I am fairly certain that Tierce is town, and her case on Airick seems fairly solid (and Airicks responses aren't the best)

Between this posts we had this post by Tierce, What exactly about that post made you completely switch your mind on those two people?

Ummm did you not read her post?

The post looks fairly town and the way she explained her reasons for the reasons i had voted her seemed town, now it might be just me but if someone addresses the points of my case on them and does it in a way there answers seem town, i tend to get a town read on that person.

[Cheery Dog]

No I hadn't reread the entire post since I was looking through your ISO and you had only quoted part of it. I had read it when it was posted, but I already had Tierce as a townread before that. (with paranoia trying to get me to think differently)
I was just seeing if you had any specifics which made you change your mind.

Reading the post again I did just discover this juicy bit of information, which would probably be why RedRabbit was killed night 1.

On RedRabbit: Why did a newbie die? Was there some kind of power role hint? I don't think so. He was not clearly Town. He went after vendetta and buldermar, and has Post 272 where he shows suspicion of Airick.

Though Tierce was also someone they went after in that post, if it is bulder/xalxe, then 2 having both scums listed as plausible early should be setting of alarm bells. Though both of them were dropped (and buldermar even became a strong townread).

I'm scared of risking the hammer and will wait to see if Xalxe as an answer to the question I just asked him in my previous post.

[Xalxe]

Well now I feel super dumb. I got RR's "tiercescum" view out of this post (which I knew wasn't the one I quoted):

Quite a lot of us hadn't a clue what was going on but two questions to Tierce about why she was voting for her slot, when it was plainly obvious that ovyo had nothing to do with the vote, made me think that she wasn't just in awe of Tierce or intimidated by Buldemar's vocabulary, it made me think she was nervous and couldn't see a way of getting people to unvote her, well, because she is scum.

Fun fact: once you muddle through the syntax there, he's talking about ovyo. So that's a thing.

Also, I would've started by voting for Tierce because 1) how is she not dead and 2) mostly gut. I'm not saying I would've been gung-ho EVERYBODY KILL THE FUCK OUT OF TIERCE, but I probably would've opened with a vote on her.

[Cheery Dog]

Also, I would've started by voting for Tierce because 1) how is she not dead and 2) mostly gut. I'm not saying I would've been gung-ho EVERYBODY KILL THE FUCK OUT OF TIERCE, but I probably would've opened with a vote on her.

Which then would have caused a everyone gung-ho (well the two scum anyway) to join in killing the fuck out of tierce.

Instead you had to go with "nobody vote we're in LYLO" spill and then say you would have opened with a vote had Tierce not died?

I am also having trouble seeing town actually announce they were going to attack the person that died during the night, especially in LYLO, I can see town thinking it, but not actually saying it.
and that post you've now said also has nothing to do with Tierce being a redrabbit suspicion. (there was some suspicion cast (in the same post where he attacked vendatta and buldermar) and a few later posts, but it was long gone when redrabbit was sheeping Tierce's option of deltabacon. Town don't sheep their most suspected's cases.

and now I'm going to stop pussy putting around with paranoia of Jason and risk the game with a hammer.

UNVOTE: buldermar
VOTE: Xalxe

[Xalxe]

Well thanks for blowing it.

[JasonWazza]

Woot

Sorry CD but you should have stuck to your guns

[Cheery Dog]

The evidence I was finding pointed that way, dammit

I should not trust evidence.

[JasonWazza]

You should, Xalxe should have tried harder to seem town.

[Cheery Dog]

I thought he was trying too hard though.

and honesty I think I would have swayed voting Xalxe's way even if we had lynched buldermar today, which is pretty much why I did it.

and some evidence such as finding out that you were in fact not obvtown because of your predecessor's no lynch vote is what I should have followed. It's just the differentiation from the other no lynches that I thought this one was actually honest.

Should have gone my other testing option of voting Jason to see what would happen.

[Leonshade]

This is what happens when I'm indecisive =/

Good game guys, I'm just glad this screwed up game is over.

[JasonWazza]

Yeah this game was screwed majorly but at least it came down to an interesting LYLO situation.