American Revolution Mafia, Hostilities have ceased!

[Sir Bastion]

Can we please get a prod on dry fit.

Considering that every other player in this game suspects him then I seriously think he needs to start giving some damn input.

for god's sake lastsurvivor has more posts then him and he was killed night 1!


Though we could read it as providence that he has the exact same post count as fourseen.

Of the two, I'll support a BC lynch today.

why BC over dry fit?

[Dry-fit]

My top suspects are BC and I guess Sir B. But BC is my top suspect. I think Sucrose is town because what town has is very overpowered with only four scum. That makes Sucrose's role which hurts the town a very plausible one to be in the game.

Tammy why am I your top suspect?

[King George III]

No posts in 24 hours means

Massprod time

. This will not count towards anyone's individual limit.

[Sir Bastion]

I am waiting for an answer to my question since its mylo I can't pressure with vote so the lack of communication is worrying

[BloodCovenent]

My top suspects are BC and I guess Sir B. But BC is my top suspect.

Still positive BC is town.

T.T



What changed so fast?

[Sir Bastion]

Ok

Sucrose I really need your answer on why you want to lynch BC before dry fit, a quick search of your posting history shows you have constantly named dry-fit as either your top or 2nd highest scum read (but rarely if ever voted him). So wanting to lynch him before Dry-fit is odd.

[Tammy]

Dry-fit you were always my third suspect. I posted my read of you earlier and not much has changed due to you not being very active and nothing really shifting.

I need to re-read through day one, and look through Magna's stuff.

I'll be on v/la until Sunday for thanksgiving. I'll try to post if I can but I can't promise anything

[Sucrose]

Ok

Sucrose I really need your answer on why you want to lynch BC before dry fit, a quick search of your posting history shows you have constantly named dry-fit as either your top or 2nd highest scum read (but rarely if ever voted him). So wanting to lynch him before Dry-fit is odd.

I've been having bad luck jumping at the obvious targets, and because of process of elimination.

Sorry, I'll get back in the game here, I've got to re-read D1.

Also, wait a minute. Let's look at yesterday's lynch. Sir Bastian put a vote on BC, bringing him up to 3, at 6:29, Eastern Time. Now, if Sir B is the double-voter, and BC is town, Sir B could have thrown the double-vote on him and lynched him at that point. Not doing so neither makes Sir B not the double-voter nor BC scum, but it's something worth noting. It makes a Sir B= DV, BC= Town configuration more unlikely. If you're scum and BC's town, why

not

push through the BC lynch? Slandaar was likely to continue to make himself look scummy, there'd be no reason to prefer his lynch to town-BC. In fact, scum no doubt already knew they were going to shoot MoI, so there'd

really

be no reason to not prefer a BC-town lynch, when his biggest attacker was going to be dead the next day. BC then votes at 9:20 (EST), and Slandaar is lynched due to the double-voter. (pretend that screw-up with me unvoting didn't happen.) BC may very well have put the double-vote on Slandaar at the same time.

Possibilities:

1. The double-vote was always on Slandaar, and BC-town's vote was the hammer. Dry-fit is the DV in this scenario.

But why put the double-vote on Slandaar and not BC if they're both town?

2. BC-town voted for Slandaar, then the DV hammered with the double-vote. Highly unlikely given the short time-frame.
3. The double-vote was always on Slandaar, because BC's scum
4. BC is scum, woke up, voted for Slandaar, and then double-voted him to save his own neck.

So, either BC's scum, or scum wanted Slandaar rather than BC lynched for reasons I can't fathom. The two most likely scenarios that I can see from my perspective are either that Dry-fit is the DV and had failed to move his double-vote off of Slandaar to the better BC lynch, or else BC is scum and either put the double-vote on Slandaar previously or at the same time he voted for him. Of the two, I think the second scenario is more likely. I stand by my choice of voting BC.

[Sir Bastion]

anyone else finding the above laughably difficult to swallow?

[Sucrose]

Really? You don't find the fact that scum didn't secretly hammer BC to be interesting at all? Care to explain why?

[Dry-fit]

What changed so fast?

Considering that it's lylo I have to consider the possibility that I was wrong in clearing you for being the counterwagon day 1. And the truth is I do put agood amount of stock in magna's opinion because he is a good player and confirmed town. I also think sucrose is very likely town which gives you a 2/3 chance of being scum.

Dry-fit you were always my third suspect. I posted my read of you earlier and not much has changed due to you not being very active and nothing really shifting.

It's true you've listed me as a suspect for quite some time, but as far as I can tell you've never given any reasons for your suspicion.

I highly doubt the Double voting works the way Sucrose is assuming. If it is, scum could just quicklynch someone right now right?

[King George III]

There should be three days to deadline. Since it's thanksgiving weekend and I'm playing a concert on Sunday, I'm going to extend the deadline to Monday night, 9pm GMT (4 Eastern).

[Sucrose]

What changed so fast?

Considering that it's lylo I have to consider the possibility that I was wrong in clearing you for being the counterwagon day 1. And the truth is I do put agood amount of stock in magna's opinion because he is a good player and confirmed town. I also think sucrose is very likely town which gives you a 2/3 chance of being scum.

Dry-fit you were always my third suspect. I posted my read of you earlier and not much has changed due to you not being very active and nothing really shifting.

It's true you've listed me as a suspect for quite some time, but as far as I can tell you've never given any reasons for your suspicion.

I highly doubt the Double voting works the way Sucrose is assuming. If it is, scum could just quicklynch someone right now right?

The Double-vote was the reason we were assuming yesterday was LyLo. Tammy was apparently exactly right when she said earlier in the game that she didn't think it could be used at (real) Lylo. Which makes sense now, as that would indeed be an almost bastard advantage if scum could use it to move game-over up like that without town having any inkling about it. At any rate, it's obvious they can't use their DV today, or the game would be over. But I wasn't talking about the DV today, I was talking about how it was used yesterday, where they

did

use it.

[Tammy]

Okay deadlines sooner than I thought. I'll make sure to give whatever bits of time I have over my vacation to do something with this game. I will be back from vacation Sunday evening, so I can spend time then.

Dry-fit I gave my read of you in Post 758 and nothing has changed except for with analyzing the votes on day one, your jumping off of shos and making both CMAR and shos even and not voting for the rest of the day look more suspicious to me. The early vote on shos looks like early distancing, and though you said you'd be willing to vote him again and were just waiting for a few people to catch up, you never voted. I gave it some merit before that you didn't help out the counterwagon, but now that we're down to the wire, you not voting for CMAR isn't as positive as I once thought. If CMAR/BC is your partner then it would make a lot of sense for you to not vote the counter wagon to your other partner and instead just removed your vote from the pool entirely. The lack of activity is also problematic for me. I know you said you had Internet problems and started a new job, but you didn't vote yesterday and just popped in to comment cursorily on a couple of people. All up, I can point to things that I can consistently see others being town for, and while I find some of your earlier posts genuine, your most recent activity is rather unengaged.

Sucrose - I need to re-read through your double vote stuff again, and I think it holds some merit. I refuse to believe that sir bastion is the double voter (I'm not even sure if your suggesting that but only have a few moments right now) as he is confirmed to be a neighborizer through confirmed town Phil. So, the only two people the double voter could be are either dry-fit or BC as the claimed vts. I can see your scenario of BC being scum with the double vote, but I'm wondering if he would actually do that as he would have to know that someone would conjecture just that scenario and that it would make him look horrible. I'll look back over when the secret vote has appeared to come in when I have another few minutes. I remember magna making a post in which he broke down the votes and tried to determine who it was so, I'll look at that. I guess part of what concerns me is that dry fit didn't vote yesterday at all even though he said he preferred slandaar and corrected what he thought I meant by my analysis of shos and fourteens voting patterns.

[BloodCovenent]

Really? You don't find the fact that scum didn't secretly hammer BC to be interesting at all? Care to explain why?

Slaander was the first one to be voted if i recall correctly, scum might have already jumped the gun a little bit and used their double vote on him under the assumption that he would get at least two more votes.


Also, on your list of possibilities, 2 and 4 are the same thing, and 3 doesn't really make sense. The concept behind 1 makes the most sense.

Possibilities:

1. The double-vote was always on Slandaar, and BC-town's vote was the hammer. Dry-fit is the DV in this scenario. But why put the double-vote on Slandaar and not BC if they're both town?
2. BC-town voted for Slandaar, then the DV hammered with the double-vote. Highly unlikely given the short time-frame.
3. The double-vote was always on Slandaar, because BC's scum
4. BC is scum, woke up, voted for Slandaar, and then double-voted him to save his own neck.

[Tammy]

Okay, so I'm not sure if looking back over the voting information helped with nailing down who the double voter could be...

The day the majiffy was lynched, both BC and df were on the wagon, but if I'm right the dv wasn't used that day, so never mind this id that's the case.

The day that ogml was lynched both BC and dry fit were on the wagon with dry fit as the last official vote.

The day that fourseen was lynched neither BC or dry fit were on the wagon. Hmm...BC was around friday morning then declared a v/la in post Post 1535. A couple votes came in for fourseen and king George made a clarification Post 1560. BC didn't post after the mod's post, but dry-fit was active after sucrose put fourseen at l-1. And fourseen was lynched the next morning.

Neither BC or dry-fit was on the Nero Cain wagon. BC was around and asked if they wanted him to hammer, but didn't. That day went by fast, and dry fit didn't post at all. But why would BC put in a secret vote instead of hammer like everyone was telling him to do?

Dry fit was on the Phil lynch but BC was not. Okay this is weird. The note on the lynch says that my vote in Post 1801 was the hammer. Though it looked like BC was the hammer when he voted in Post 1804.

The slandaar wagon had BC, but dry fit wasn't voting at all. He said earlier that he preferred a slandaar lynch but didn't vote.

Okay most of this is just information. If I get a few more minutes later tonight, I'll see if I can draw some conclusions from this, if not I'll look at it tomorrow before more sight seeing.

[Sir Bastion]

right screw it.

If I'm wrong I'm sorry but I'm going to do something rather then nothing

vote: Dry Fit

[Sucrose]

right screw it.

If I'm wrong I'm sorry but I'm going to do something rather then nothing

vote: Dry Fit

So who do you think Dry Fit's partner is, then?

[Sir Bastion]

you at the moment.

[Sucrose]

Great.

[Tammy]

Okay, sorry I didn't get to this yesterday's like I hoped...touristy things precedence.

So, in order for dry-fit to be the double voter he would have had to make his last vote and hammer vote about the same time since he was last on the wagon, and amrun voted a couple posts after dry-fit nd it wasn't counted. He would have had to submit his secret vote sometime after sucrose put fourseen at t l-1. I was originally wondering why he wouldn't just vote but there was some contention around that time with Nero and my getting blocked although fourseen was going to be the lynch anyway as magna was quite insistent about it and I think he would have gotten what he wanted. Dry-fit could have decided to cut his losses and get rid of fourseen who by that time could have been seen as a liability if he continued to live. He would have had to submit his vote for Nero Cain but not posted in any other game that day as he has no posts on site for the time of the Nero lynch. He would have had to submit his double vote when he submitted his real vote for Phil as I ended up being the hammer. He would have had to submit his secret vote for slandaar when he said that's what he preferred or at any other time before BC voted.

In order for BC to be the double voter, he'd have to have submitted his secret vote sometime of the ogml lynch. He was on the wagon really early and kept pushing for the lynch pretty strongly, so it could potentially have been done at any time. BC would have had to secret vote before he went on v/la, but there would have been no issue with him voting at the time that he declared v/la as the fourseen lynch was at that time the only suggested lynch and we were only really waiting on that so that kimor and I could catch up. BC was around at the time of the Nero lynch and asked if people wanted him to hammer or put him at l-1. More than one person told him to go ahead and vote, there would be no need for him to secret hammer if people were giving him permission to real hammer. That and the Phil lynch really point away from BC being the double voter. He voted in 1804, but my vote in 1801 was the actual hammer. Again there is no need to place a secret vote if you're just going to hammer anyway. I also have trouble buying the theory that he voted and secret voted for slandaar at the same time as it would have just looked horrible for him. And therefore I think it's more likely that the vote was already there.

All up I see more evidence pointing to dry fit being the double voter. The only thing in his favor over this is that he didn't post anywhere on site the day that Nero Cain was lynched until after the lynch occured, and the secret vote was used for that lynch. But this is far from conclusive. Am I missing anything? I think I'm running out of plane wifi minutes, so I'll try to get back to this at some point tonight after my flight lands.

[Tammy]

Sucrose - is there a reason that you don't seriously consider dry fit for the double voter? And since you made a hypothetical double-voter scenario, can you tell me what you think of my analysis of the double voter issue? Also, have you ever played with slandaar before?

[Sir Bastion]

interesting lack of reaction to the vote.

Tammy interesting thoughts on double voter, but again like sucrose earlier there is a lot of assumption on mechanics which we cannot confirm or deny. I am more inclined to believe from the people who were double voted (all players who were clearly under pressure the day before) and who were not double voted (day 1 and players who's lynch came out of the events of the day) and also the number of trackers and (possible) watcher I am inclined to believe the double voter is a night power, I did suspect Tammy it might have been you as one of the two days on record of you visiting MOI there was no double vote, but there was a double vote on the day of your 2nd visit [which was fourseen]. So it's clear there are too many variables to get a working model so I think it's more important to discuss interactions.

More specifically dry fit was named by everyone as a top suspect, if he was town then the scum team should have been all over my vote by now hammering for a win. (this is of course working with what I know already...I'm town)

Of course BC hasnt posted, so perhaps if tammy or sucrose were his partner they are waiting


But we will cross that bridge when BC posts, in the mean time I like to think that dry fit flipping scum confirms that his partner had no issue on naming him a suspect and throwing suspicion in his direction.

Which is why Sucrose is jumping up and up my scum list because:

once

twice

thrice

four five six seven eight nine ten eleven

eleven times.

You can say he goes all the way to eleven with how much he suspects dry fit.

Yet how many times has he voted dry fit...


0

Not once throughout the game did he vote his most constant suspect.

And then today he not only again opts out of backing a dry fit lynch but states he is more willing to lynch BC, a player who he had previously named as one of his stronger town reads. His justification:

I've been having bad luck jumping at the obvious targets, and because of process of elimination.

Aside from the target you have named every day but never voted...perhaps you should trust that gut of yours.

[BloodCovenent]

I've got to get to work right now, i'll be back afterwork and hopefully get it up, at the latest then tomorrow.

[Sir Bastion]

tomorrow is the deadline...just a reminder