NY 160: Terrible Melodrama Mafia (Game Over)

[Plan B]

I'm not a fan of this surging RedCoyote wagon.

@ Gentlemen Bastards

If you're right about Untrod Tripod, Nostredeus, and N, it means that RedCoyote was the only read Demon Core possibly had right in his final list. And, of all of them, that was the most throwaway read. I know Demon Core wasn't necessarily killed for accuracy of his reads, but scum killed him for some reason, and if he was that wrong, then why?

Both Town players that scum chose to kill - Demon Core and Nero Cain - had strong suspicions of adorkable (Nostredeus). Both also had weaker suspicions of RedCoyote.

Out of Nostredeus and RedCoyote, I think Nostredeus is more likely to flip scum.

Here was the Vote Count when Nostredeus replaced in.

Untrod Tripod (4)- Empking, Plan B, JacobSavage, RedCoyote
Nostredeus (2)- 4nxi3ty, Gentlemen Bastards
Empking (1)- Untrod Tripod
4nxi3ty (1)- N

Not voting: F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Nostredeus

I think it makes sense for Nostredeus (as hypothetical scum) to settle on Empking if Untrod Tripod is Town. Nostredeus likely wouldn't want the outfall from pushing a mislynch to the brink. And, it's a powerful, but subtle, way to buddy up to Untrod Tripod by showing solidarity with the Townie under pressure. Plus, if Untrod Tripod went on to get lynched and flipped Town, it's good credit for Nostredeus.

I can see how Nostredeus as hypothetical Town could skim through and get a suspicion on Empking for play on the Toon Fighter lynch. But, I think ignoring the explanation and the context of Empking's play shows an irrationally firm stance. And, ignoring the similarity of how Untrod Tripod played on the Toon Fighter lynch shows a similar irrational adherence to his initial skim read.

Keep in mind that Nostredeus went to some lengths to explain just how quickly he ran through the thread and got those reads. Seems like a Townie who did that would be much more likely to be willing to reassess with more time to review and additional input from other players, as opposed to locking down on those first blush, skim reads.

UNVOTE: Untrod Tripod
VOTE: Nostredeus

@ Gentlemen Bastards

I think you may have talked yourself out of a good scum read through paranoia of getting it wrong. Tell me what you think about the above re:Nostredeus. Your opposition to the Untrod Tripod lynch has caused me to second think my read on him. Mostly, it's the fact that to account for the DoomYoshi interaction, the theory has to get more complicated to fit the facts. That's a red flag when the simpler explanation that they are not partners also fits the facts.

@ Empking and RedCoyote

I think you both should reassess your read on Untrod Tripod and join the Nostredeus wagon.

And, RedCoyote, Untrod Tripod is right, for what it's worth, that you did misread his response to me earlier and his analysis of Empking's reads.

....I stated a scumread on Empking and DY as partners on Day 1 and then started pushing it Day 2 when DY flipped scum.

That's actually what triggered my tentative Town read on you early Day 2. Day 3, I was pushing that this could have been a connect a Townie to a buddy play, but, I'm now looking at how quick you came out of the gates voting Empking on Day 2, and there's no good reason you'd have anticipated DoomYoshi would die on Night 1 if he was your partner. So, again, by conspiracy theory, I could account for you doing this as scum. But, it's much simpler to explain your play as Town who thought they saw a connection, then got confirmation that one of them was scum, so went directly after the other one.

Do you think I'm misreading RedCoyote due to him buddying up to me? Do you think my accusation about Nostredeus buddying up to you makes sense?

@ 4nxi3ty

Don't give up on the Nostredeus lynch. I think it's more likely to hit scum than lynching RedCoyote.

@ JacobSavage

Has Nostredeus had enough time yet? I'd appreciate it if you'd get in here and weigh in. I've been confused by some of your posts, but I firmly believe you are Town, and will listen to what you have to say.

[N]

Meh, an RC wagon is cool with me too; I'd prefer to see Emp die first just in case RC legitimately thinks Emp has decent reads and ends up being town (unlikely) but I suppose if RC flips scum it'll confirm my reads. I'll leave my vote where it is but this is me re-affirming my intent to see one of them strung up.

How does this work? How does Empking's flip make any difference to RC's alignment?

[JacobSavage]

@Plan B

See I'm currently torn, see I totally see your case on Nost = scum, especially when it comes to the whole not having a proper set of reads.
I've tried looking through his meta but unfortunatly he hasn't got a single scum game so there isnt much to compare too in that regard.

But then there are some other bits and pieces about both of their plays that makes me think otherwise, I don't really want to say too much now, Ill explain in full tommorrow (possibly) but I have a theory.

However I've been looking through the VC's from Day 1 and it appears, to me at least that DY tended to follow RC's vote and vica versa. For example one of the first moves RC made was to hop onto my wagon that was going at the time. Then after sitting on piggy for a bit he followed RC down to DY to vote on N. To my untrained eye it certainly appears as both of them are just relying on safety in numbers to not get noticed.

So, UNVOTE:
VOTE: RedCoyote
If he flips scum, N should be regarded as town for the next Day or so, I can't see any reason why both scum would jump on their third buddies wagon so quickly.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Finishing up on some work stuff and then I'll be unloading a bunch of thoughts that I had from a discussion with Empire. Apologies in advance if it's a massive wall.

[DeasVail]

Vote Count 3.06

RedCoyote (3)- 4nxi3ty, Untrod Tripod, JacobSavage
Untrod Tripod (2)- Empking, RedCoyote
Nostredeus (2)- F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Plan B
Empking (1)- Nostredeus

Not voting: Gentlemen Bastards, N

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline

9th December, 10pm AEDT (A little over 48 hours from now)

[N]

(A little over 48 hours from now)

VOTE: Untrod Tripod

[Empking]

I think you both should reassess your read on Untrod Tripod and join the Nostredeus wagon.

Re Nost: Other than the UT support point, I'm not sure if the rest of your tells are useful alignment indicators*, so I won't.

*other than DC's list.

Reading through my post; I think I may have been immediately reactionary in my 'ignoring' of your post. I'm still much more confident on UT though.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Hopefully this will help settle me down and help work out where I've gone wrong because I have too many crack pot theories and scum teams floating around in my head at the moment. So if parts of this comes across as difficult to understand feel free to ask us to explain it in more detail, it'll probably help us sort things out as well. Last thing I want is this game to devolve into a game like Slaxx's Flame Warriors and elements of it is already starting to seem that way. I've tried to make this a bit more reader friendly because after my last game I got some comments about people not reading my 'block of text and walls fully' and at this point if anyone disagrees with any of these reads or the reasoning behind it we need to know as soon as possible. Scum lynch is seriously badly needed.

The one thing that we are completely certain on is that no matter how much paranoia is impacting our alternate reads

Jacob is town

. So that means straight away we're at the following

Jacob,

N, 4nxiety, Empking, Plan B, RC, F-16, UT and Nost

. Working through that one at a time:

N's meta here in comparison to his scum games point towards him being town, as does his interaction with DoomYoshi in Post 85 and Post 87. His reads and 'it'll be good for me to write it down' in Post 471 is also a fairly strong town-tell. So all up I'd say

N is town

and move onwards.

Anxietys Post 264 of 'If I die tonight I think Toon is scum' is still a decent town-tell and his reads earlier on Senjai, Jacob and N are minor town-tells too. Not sure I like his lack of reads stated on other players though, no comment on his opinion of RC until he starts pushing him and no read whatsoever on Plan B, F-16 or Empking as well as a few others. So all up I

lean towards Anxiety being town but want to talk with Empire

about him when his exam finishes tomorrow in more detail.

Empkings noticing and stating that Jacob is on a whole another level of town in Post 337 is a relatively decent town-tell. As is his Post 338 comment of 'Seriously, Thea' it's a very natural way for him to play as town. His pointing towards DCs list as well as willigness to re-look at his reads based on it is a decent town-tell. Also from memory his scum meta is a lot more intense than this. All up pretty willing to say that

Empking is town.

So updating:

Jacob, N,

4nxiety,

Empking,

Plan B, RC, F-16, UT and Nost

.

Sorry, I don't have time to finish doing the reading and elaborating on the rest as crickets in the morning and I need some sleep but I'll finish this tomorrow when I get back from it. Long story short though is I want to make sure that I don't have anyone in a massive blind spot and want to look into Plan B because of it - also the vig ect. rambling is a long story and hard to explain but the gist of it is that if it was a vig that shot DY N1 then odds are it isn't a 1-shot vig meaning they would have shot last night but given there's only one kill either it was a doublekill on NC or someone was roleblocked. We think it's slightly less likely for scum to shoot NC so fast given a lot of people suspected him but can kind of see a vig shooting him or a sk shooting him. That means the scums kill is missing and we looked at NCs ISO and the person he makes the most sense roleblocking is Plan B so yeah really want to make sure we haven't blind spotted scum this entire time. Short story of the rest is that I'm leaning townish on RC overall mostly because his play here ressembles his town meta and I need to re-look at Nost but still feeling he's town but again need to look into the whole thing a lot more. And short story on F-16 is that we think he's scum here, none of his play looks like he's actually attempting to scumhunt but rather coast through the game which is absolutely nothing like his town-meta and he's been posting a lot elsewhere and I mean a lot. We had a mini convo segment which was that Plan Bs strong town read on F-16 looks entirely misplaced since the entire basis is 'he has different views' when his views aren't that different at all and that having different opinions isn't a town-tell, can see scum town-reading a partner that way. And woops, just realized none of this is a 'short story' at all. I really need to work on culling down.

Spoiler: Random unfinished notes

[READ INTO] Need to look at Plan B - potential that if vig shot NC that NC would have roleblocked Plan B(?) making Plan B scum in that case. Like a lot of his D1 posting and his reads though but his town-read on F-16 and the strength of it comes across as misplaced in a way that doesn't make any sense - look back into F-16/Plan B interaction. Plan B scum would also explain what we're missing at the moment but seriously need to focus on reading into this.**** [/]

[READ INTO] RC, metawise I think he's playing slightly more towards his town meta here, his post of reads and reasoning behind 'X is good, Y is good, Z is good' comes across as a lot more of what I know from him as town. Need to look at his interaction with F-16 too. Also need to check to see if Empire still thinks he's scum* [/]

[READ INTO] F-16, the "Jacob is town" "Not explaining more to draw nightkill" feels very paper thin, it's very obvious that he's not an actual investigative role, if he claims one he's scum without a doubt* and I don't see him thinking that the 'gambit' would actually work as town. Feels a lot more like scum attempting to do that hoping it'll draw peoples willingness to lynch him of a little more. He's playing super to his scum meta here, avoiding this thread but posting prolificly elsewhere, entire push on Jacob was trash but not sure of the complete scum motivation now that Toons town behind it. Feels very very very much of, will let Empire metarape him though if he still thinks he's scum*]

UTs interaction and conversation with DoomYoshi in Post 412 and Post 413 still comes across as DY slipping revealing that he knows UT is town every time I go over it. I also think UTs play after D1 matches his town meta a lot more closely and find his angle of discussion such as 'drop the attitude it's one scum have ect.' in Post 445, Post 452 and Post 619 are decent town-tells, as scum he'd be happy that we're town-reading and defending him and wouldn't be trying to decredit or shun us. And while I think he's wrong his whole Empking and DY are buddies ect. that he was pushing on D1 and D2 is a town-tell. So overall

UT is town.

[READ INTO] Nosts predecessor adorkable reads as super scum, their excuses for dodging this game were blatant bullshit but not sure if they'd flake like that as scum given what a good position scum seem to be in, need to look at their scum meta a bit more to see if Pies more interested in scum or town but I think I replaced him as scum in Nikandors game that was abadonned. Nosts posting though comes across as super genuine as is the way he's approached the pressure today but SERIOUSLY need to look into him because if he's town than DCs list is fucked up. [/]

Ok. So that leaves me with:

Jacob, N,

4nxiety,

Empking,

Plan B, RC, F-16,

UT

and Nost

.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Yeah, that's a complete mess of a post. Hopefully you can follow the gist of what I'm saying in it though.

[Nostredeus]

Vote: RedCoyote

Clearly the Emp wagon has no wheels , this is the second best thing.

[Plan B]

We had a mini convo segment which was that Plan Bs strong town read on F-16 looks entirely misplaced since the entire basis is 'he has different views' when his views aren't that different at all and that having different opinions isn't a town-tell,

It wasn't just different views. It was that he went against the generally accepted view that JacobSavage was Town.

F-16_Fighting_Falcon's catch up reads to me to be coming from Town mindset. I disagree with the JacobSavage conclusion, but don't pervieve it as a scum motivated attack. Especially given that multiple players have espoused Town leanings on JacobSavage (including Demon Core who is known Town).

New and different viewpoints expressed is more likely to come from Town as opposed to finding an easy path to blend in.

I thought attacking a player that got quite a bit of Town acceptance on Day 1 would have been an unlikely entrance for scum, especially since you were already getting after him and you were one of the players strongly calling JacobSavage Town. Plus, Demon Core was a big proponent of JacobSavage being Town. That would have been a significant uphill struggle to take on versus just easing in and agreeing with the most common opinion.

Combined with the fact that I kind of had a Town lean on Cletus+Brandine, I was willing to express my Town read on F-16_Fighting_Falcon. I still think he's Town.

I'm most confident in my Town reads, a little less so in my scum reads.

I think you're struggling because you got a misleading Town vibe from Nostredeus and you're paranoid from being wrong about Toon Fighter and don't want to lead another mislynch. Your initial instincts on me were correct, and I think your instincts on the adorkable/Nostredeus slot were also correct.

Let's get this lynch on scum, and then find however many more there are.

@ JacobSavage

Thanks for the reply. I disagree with you and think Nostredeus is more likely to be scum than RedCoyote. I'll look over what you said about the Day 1 vote counts.

@ Empking

I think you're going to have to really explain why Untrod Tripod is the best choice for lynching.

@ N

I don't get the association between deadline approaching and you voting a weakening wagon. What am I missing?

[N]

@ N
I don't get the association between deadline approaching and you voting a weakening wagon. What am I missing?

Out of the available wagons, I think UT is most likely scum. I didn't really looked at whether it was "weakening" or not.

I just can't see any scum motivation in RC's actions and I'm actually leaning town on Nost after he walked us through his thought processes.

[Untrod Tripod]

not that you're going to elaborate on any of that

[N]

Are you talking to me? I just did elaborate.

[Untrod Tripod]

the last thing you said about me previous to post 711 was that I was "probably town". now you're voting for me as "most likely scum" without any elaboration or reasoning for your vote.

so I guess my point is no, you didn't elaborate.

[4nxi3ty]

probly not going to be online again before deadline so my vote is staying on rc.

[Empking]

Plan B& F16 need to change their votes.

[RedCoyote]

Should I claim then? GB? F-16?

[JacobSavage]

I would advise it . I mean its L-2 but looking at the activity levels it appears that we may get a deadline lynch.... So yeah a claim soon will be best for town in my opinion.

Also F-16 needs to post,

[JacobSavage]

16) No majority at deadline means no lynch occurs.
eliminated.

A no lynch is just as bad.

[Plan B]

UNVOTE: Nostredeus
VOTE: Untrod Tripod
I'm not joining a wagon with Nostredeus, and I'm o.k. with being on a wagon with Empking and RedCoyote.

[Plan B]

Ah, fuck it.

JacobSavage is a strong enough Town read to cancel out my misgivings about Nostredeus, and I'm willing to accept Gentlemen Bastards' Town read on Untrod Tripod.

UNVOTE: Untrod Tripod
VOTE: RedCoyote

This is a stupid decision to have to make, and Nostredeus should be the lynch for this Day.

[Plan B]

That's L-1, I think, so if you're going to claim, now's probably the time.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Hey, I just got back from my week long absence due to exams. Only got to talk for a little bit with Regfan but I'll make a post here in a couple of hours sharing my thoughts. The thrust of it will be this: I really don't think an RC or UT lynch is the way to go at all and would much rather lynch F-16.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Hey, I am catching up now. Obviously I'd rather RC be lynched than me since I know I am town and I can't say the same for RC - he is null. So, yeah, a claim would be good. I'll post my thoughts on the last couple of pages in a bit.