NY 160: Terrible Melodrama Mafia (Game Over)

[DeasVail]

Vote Count 3.07

RedCoyote (5)- 4nxi3ty, Untrod Tripod, JacobSavage, Nostredeus, Plan B

[L-1]

Untrod Tripod (3)- Empking, RedCoyote, N
Nostredeus (1)- F-16_Fighting_Falcon

Not voting: Gentlemen Bastards

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline

9th December, 10pm AEDT

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I can't follow most of what GB is saying regarding "genuineness." I think you should really explain how and why you regard a player as genuine - like Nost for example. I wouldn't agree with sheeping Empking or Regfan. Empking hasn't been active enough for my liking or leading the Day in any way. I am confused about my read on regfan. From experience, I know that Regfan puts a lot of effort as town but I've heard that he doesn't as scum. I need to figure out from meta. But based on posts so far, I am leaning town on GB due to the effort Regfan is putting into the game. What strikes me is how completely off he is in his reads - his one constant seems to be me. I can see scum motivation for tunneling someone for a few day phases so they don't get blamed for the lynch that actually hapenned and can continue to persue me until it is close to LYLO. On the other hand, I doubt they would switch their reads around so much as scum. Either they are scum or they are way off with their suspicions.

@ RC, are you saying Nost and UT are a scumteam in 698?

I agree though that DY left a lot of false trails and trying to decipher them on their own could lead us on wild goose chases. A better idea would be to go after individually scummy players and cross-check them with DY to eliminate any interactions which could prove that player town.

Night-kill analysis would be much better idea and on that note, I agree with Plan B's analysis. One night kill may not be enough but a pattern is always valuable. Nero had Plan B, Nost, 4nx as his final scumreads in 504. GB had N, UT, RC and Nost as his final scumreads. So, that points to Nost as well.

[JacobSavage]

@Nost, assuming a RC lynch goes through, who do you think is your strongest scum read if he flips town, who do you think is your strongest scum read if he flips scum?

@Plan B, I am more than willing to swap to Untrod if you think that he is more likely to be scum than RC, personally I think his insistence that Empking is scum does not seem like town play. Especially given that scum like being secretive and not drawing that much attension to themselves.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Ok only have a very small amount of time to put this together, literally being rushed out the door right now. I've been catching up on and rereading certain players - here's what I have so far:

Jacob is still a very strong townread and should never be lynched ever. Feel also pretty strongly about Empking being town for the reasons Regfan mentioned. UT doesn't make much sense at all as DY's partner as we've been saying over and over (Regfan summarized it pretty cogently in #707).

The more I'm looking at RC's ISO the more I think he's actually town despite the weirdness of his play. As scum, RC tends to care a lot more about the image he gives off and about looking really pro-town. Take a glance at #319 and the way he describes his N FoS and compare it to how he targets CDB in Micro 34. In the latter, I see him as trying to play up CDB's scumminess and here I don't get that impression at all with regards to his FoSes - I think as scum, he'd try to play up his indignation and try to grab some cred. I just don't see him being as image conscious here. Him being super unmotivated also points to him being town - his self-meta in #694 is very much on the mark. He tends to lose interest very quickly as town which matches his play here. Also, as scum, he's very much concerned with setting himself up against someone at endgame (see: Equinox/Kondi in The Chosen One, MichelSableheart in Micro 34). What similar strategy is he employing here? (I don't see any).

Rereading 4nx, #264 still looks like a pretty slam dunk towntell given DY's flip. Only problem is that it seems to come a bit out of the blue and his justification for it in #295 doesn't seem to support that kind of read ("some of Yoshi's comments about me felt off."). Interaction-wise, he doesn't fit: Looking at DY's ISO, the entire "fishing" accusation in #286 + #300, and #404 ("4nxiety's vote switched wagons directly. I am still trying to figure out what this means, but it seems like an opportunistic as hell wagon.") doesn't seem to be him addressing his partner.

Adorkable's posts are still pretty fucking terrible and that slot makes a lot of sense as scum given that they were on DC's scum list but I agree in that some of Nostre's posts feel genuine. Regfan's probably much more capable of explaining why than I would since I haven't given him as close of a read as I have some of the others in the roster. Only skimmed Plan B, don't think his strong townread on F-16 makes much sense but I gotta give him a closer read too.

Still think F-16 is scum largely for the reasons I laid out in here. Will lay out a more detailed explanation later tonight since I really don't have time right now.

Would greatly appreciate it if people would at the very least hold off on the hammer until I get back. Something is off here and I want to make damn sure it's figured out.

[Plan B]

@Plan B, I am more than willing to swap to Untrod if you think that he is more likely to be scum than RC, personally I think his insistence that Empking is scum does not seem like town play. Especially given that scum like being secretive and not drawing that much attension to themselves.

The lynch I really want is Nostredeus.

Between Untrod Tripod and RedCoyote, I don't see an overwhelming chance of either flipping scum. But, given RedCoyote being a low grade suspect of both Demon Core and Nero Cain, I'll accept his lynch.

Are you strongly opposed to a Nostredeus lynch?

I'll be in and out for some time late into this evening. Let me know, and I'll switch right back to Nostredeus.

@ Gentlemen Bastards (either head)

I've given you the best explanation I can for my Town read on F-16_Fighting_Falcon. If you've got any other questions, ask them.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Only have a few minutes but will be printing out a bunch of the reading I need to do to take with me on the train (It's 2-3 hour train trip) so hopefully I'll be done all of the raeding by the time I get back on tonight.

@ Gentlemen Bastards

If you're right about Untrod Tripod, Nostredeus, and N, it means that RedCoyote was the only read Demon Core possibly had right in his final list. And, of all of them, that was the most throwaway read. I know Demon Core wasn't necessarily killed for accuracy of his reads, but scum killed him for some reason, and if he was that wrong, then why?

@ Gentlemen Bastards

I think you may have talked yourself out of a good scum read through paranoia of getting it wrong. Tell me what you think about the above re:Nostredeus. Your opposition to the Untrod Tripod lynch has caused me to second think my read on him. Mostly, it's the fact that to account for the DoomYoshi interaction, the theory has to get more complicated to fit the facts. That's a red flag when the simpler explanation that they are not partners also fits the facts.

Inside of DCs reads list I'd say my confidence in them being town is the strongest on RC, UT and N rather than Nost. I also did a little bit more hunting and found out that they /Inned for another game so their "Don't have time for the game" excuse to replace out is bullshit. So at this point if there's no support for an F-16 lynch then I'm much more comfortable with a Nost compromise with an RC or UT lynch, I don't think either have any chance of flipping mafia. That said I feel something is wrong here, something is very very wrong. It's possible that it' the fact that I was wrong on Piggy and Toon that has me second guessing a lot at the moment but bleh I'm not confident in that slot flipping scum, it's just a better shot than the alternatives.

As for your town-read on F-16 that you explained in Post 710 it's blatantly wrong. While Jacob had a few people town-reading him there was also a lot of people scum-reading him at the time, quite a lot so he wasn't 'widely considered as obvtown' and him stating suspicion and pushing on Jacob gives him a mslynch later in the game when we're dead and unable to defend him and no offence to Jacob but he's a 'weaker' player and thus easier for scum to get a mslynch on. So no, him pushing Jacob isn't a town-tell in the slightest, it's rather the opposite. Do us a favour and re-ISO F-16 here and then look at any of his other town games (Empires linked some in our ISO or you can just check his game history) you'll notice a massive difference in his play here to any of those. Empires said he'll be going into a massive meta rapage case soon on F-16 though so if you're really lazy you can probably wait for that. But F-16 does not live to lylo, I want that promised to me because I'm very confident that slot is scum and I don't have that level confidence with any of my other scum-reads at the moment.

[JacobSavage]

UNVOTE:

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ GB, I play differently as town and scum each game. Also, the things you pointed out that are different from the game I played as town are so minor as to be null-tells. Let's see: you say that I changed my read on MagnaOfIllusion in Stratego mafia first saying that he was town and then voting him. That's just the way the game played out. I don't see how you jump from that to a conclusion that I am scum here because I didn't change my mind on Jacob just because you said so. You have a sample size of one game. I don't have any scum games with this account but my town games are listed on my wiki for all to see. In Black Flag Nightless, for instance, I was convinced N was scum (he was) and I never wavered from my read until the end. Even in the Stratego mafia that you linked, once I was set on MOI, there was no looking back. I would never have voted anyone else. The initial change was because I hadn't formed a strong enough read yet.

[Untrod Tripod]

I respect gb enough to compromise on a lynch with them.

[Untrod Tripod]

I still want empking to hang, though

[Plan B]

UNVOTE: RedCoyote
VOTE: Nostredeus

[DeasVail]

Vote Count 3.08

RedCoyote (3)- 4nxi3ty, Untrod Tripod, Nostredeus
Untrod Tripod (3)- Empking, RedCoyote, N
Nostredeus (2)- F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Plan B

Not voting: Gentlemen Bastards, JacobSavage

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline

9th December, 10pm AEDT

[N]

It's like an hour to deadline; which lynch is happening?

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Oh fuck me. I thought deadline was in 15ish hours and was about to go for a few hour nap so I could get up when Empire was on.

Vote: Nost

About the only lynch that I think has any chance of flipping mafia. F-16 needs death tomorrow though, the 'meta difference' in his play is not just him not having unvoted Jacob which he's trying to make out it is. Read his games elsewhere vs here and you'll notice or hope we live through the night so Empire can absolutely destroy him.

[N]

All right then...
VOTE: Nost

[N]

Still needs another to two votes before he's lynched, though.

[N]

It's actually only half an hour until deadline.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Jacobs browsing the thread right now, that should be one.

So we only need one more vote.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

DV really should have had a 'countdown to deadline' thingy.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ GB, what are you talking about regarding unvoting Jacob? Also, I don't know if a Nost lynch is going to go through considering no one else is online.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

This is what I'm talking about:

I don't see how you jump from that to a conclusion that I am scum here because I didn't change my mind on Jacob just because you said so.

It's not even close to what the meta thing is that we're talking about. None of your play this game has been genuine scumhunting and hunting for peoples true motives, questioning them, pushing for information, stating reads, making sure the game doesn't go under. None of that at all and it's what I've seen you do as town in MORE than one game so it's not a case of 'small sample size' at all.

Also we just need to one of RC, Empking or UT to get online and vote in the next uh 19 minutes.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I have been doing all of the things you claim I am not doing. I've been analyzing associative tells with DY, questioning players, pushing info etc. You are just pulling stuff out of your ass saying that I am not.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

No, you really haven't at all. If you rule out posts that involve back-and-forths with us you have posted nearly nothing in the game other than the 'catch up' post that you delayed on doing for a long time. None of that resembles your town play at all.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Also, I have my vote on Nost and if I am such a strong scumread for you, why do you choose the same wagon I am joining? You previously said that I was scummy because I continued pushing Jacob after Toon Fighter agreed with me. Hypocritical, isn't it?

Pedit: And how is procrastination/posting sparingly a scumtell for me. I did the exact same thing in Black Flag Nightless as town. What you are pointing at is a null tell at best.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

I'm voting Nost not because I'm confident he'll flip scum but because the other two wagons are on strong town-reads of mine. There's no good alternative whatsoever. And black flag is a different thing entirely, Arthur was doing the big amount of posting for you in that game plus absta had already conftowned your slot up, not to mention during that game I thought a lot of your play there of posting less was an attempt to play two-games-at-once, in other words I think it was an attempt to nullify your scummy behaviour here by doing it there.