NY 160: Terrible Melodrama Mafia (Game Over)

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Empking is a dead end, he's not mafia. That much we've very very very confident in.

Join us on F-16.

[N]

Okay, but he's going to accuse me of sheeping again.

VOTE: F16

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Oh if I haven't read into Nosts meta (Particularly his replacing into games) in the next 24ish hours and Empire doesn't remind me to get to it then remind me.

Want to look how he normally approaches it compared to here.

[4nxi3ty]

I have two scumteam theories: RC/F16, RC/Nost

Oh, and I wanted to mention, if we have any other investigative roles, I think it would be wise for them to consider coming out now.

I investigated him. He is town.

gambit to avoid a nightkill?

and Nost's read of RC felt very much like reluctant bussing.

want to see how F16 and Nost react to a RC lynch.

vote: RC

[Untrod Tripod]

bah

[4nxi3ty]

So PoE is really really point towards it being F-16 + Nost

not likely:

Of all the viable wagons, I think Nost is scum based on the fake towntell. My initial impression was that Nost didn't read that thread and the fact that he called DY town seemed to show that he was unaware of the flips. 613 fails to address this. Nost, obviously read the OP where it was mentioned that Nero and DY were dead since he knew that Nero was dead. I am undecided on UT.

@ RedCoyote, yes it would help if you gave town-meta of you sheeping. Also, there are plenty of players still alive. I don't think it is a good idea for investigators to out yet.

@ UT, okay, I can see where you came up with that interpretation. I am not sold on Empking being scum though.

VOTE: Nostredeus

this vote tied the UT wagon.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Empire told me that F-16s scum meta is to buss. Plus the way he just stood on the Nost wagon without really pushing it ever and stating that he was happy to jump to RC so easily works with distancing / bussing partner in an attempt to grab town cred from it later tied with giving himself outtings to jump elsewhere if it didn't kick off.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

I'll see if I can find the game he pointed out about it in our logs.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

He didn't link a game but said that F-16 faked a guilty on his partner in the game and it had Venrob and Paschedale in it so bussing isn't unlikely from him.

[Plan B]

Initial impressions:

Not convinced about F-16_Fighting_Falcon, but willing to compare Gentlemen Bastards' case against my Town read (not directly, just strength/validity).

No reservations about lynching Nostredeus.

VOTE: Nostredeus

More later beause work gets top priority today.

[Nostredeus]

So basically a tonne of people jumped a wagon in the last few minutes in an attempt to pressure town to lynch me or end up with a no-kill and no one is looking at the people who did it as suspicious?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYQdogPM ... re=related


Meh, Emp or F-16... What a choice, let's go with:

VOTE: F-16

[DeasVail]

Vote Count 4.01

F-16_Fighting_Falcon (3)- Gentlemen Bastards, N, Nostredeus
Nostredeus (2)- Empking, Plan B
RedCoyote (1)- 4nxi3ty

Not voting: RedCoyote, F-16_Fighting_Falcon

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

(expired on 2012-12-25 07:00:00)

[N]

So basically a tonne of people jumped a wagon in the last few minutes in an attempt to pressure town to lynch me or end up with a no-kill and no one is looking at the people who did it as suspicious?

Are you saying those that tried to compromise on a deadline lynch are scummy?

(Please continue to make posts like this, then I can feel better about ignoring 658.)

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Greetings everyone! Here’s the moment you’ve all been waiting for (took a longer time than it should have due to law school exams but here it is).

F-16 FIGHTING FALCON META CASE:

First a little bit of background information. Given that F-16 evidently doesn’t seem to mind, I’ll fill you guys in on his main. F-16 is rapidcanyon, a user who has quite a bit of experience both here at MS and offsite. As you will now learn, his town play and scum play are vastly different. As town, F-16 is very thorough and probing. He leaves no stone unturned and his reads generally have a lot of meat to them. Tonally, he also comes off as more uncertain in a genuine way that is very difficult for even seasoned scum players to replicate. As scum, F-16’s scumhunting is a lot more superficial and narrow-minded. He is also generally a lot more defensive and reactive. When he pushes on players, there is a twinge of confidence that comes from an informed perspective, which is greater when he pushes his partners. He also evidently loves bussing as scum. After taking a look at several of his games, it’s pretty clear that he is playing to his scum meta in this game.

TOWN:

Micro 57 – Main thing I want to point out here is to take a look at how he approaches replacing into this game. In #219, he details his thoughts on all of the players in the game up to around the first half of the game at that point. He’s never fixated on solely one player. He is also very willing to reconsider his reads in #238, where he switches from finding MoI town to finding him scum for his prolonged and unreasonable push on Carbon. His later case on MoI during their essential cc battle in #354 and #363 is very thorough and actually focuses on scummy behavior/motivations.

Micro 70 – A game where he was town and I was scum (free me-scum meta if people are interested). Right off the bat, you can see a huge difference in his play. In #39, he puts forth some talking points on Shmugen that actually read like he’s genuinely trying to discern people’s alignments and not shoe-horning scum intent into their posts. The way he progresses from pushing on Shmugen to pushing Konowa in #103 and #126 feels completely natural. Generally speaking, as you can see here, he’s a lot more thoughtful and willing to push/pressure and consider every single player in the roster.

BONUS: Open 463 (Black Flag Nightless) – A game where myself, Regfan, and F-16 were all town albeit in hydras. #1018 is his first heavy content post and it’s super in depth and detailed (look at how much analysis this dude puts in for 9 fucking pages). The remainder of his ISO contains the same open-minded and thorough thinking he demonstrates in the other games.

SCUM:

Micro 36 – You can tell something is off almost immediately. His #166 is him tossing out easy reads for shallow reasons. He townreads ShadowDancer, gorckat, and PiggyGal for the most shallow of reasons, focusing mainly on their “longer, detailed posts” and “enthusiasm”. His scumread on njoseph (his partner) is also remarkably shallow, focusing only on his “little substance” though he quickly drops this vote once other options arise. Also to note is his #247, where he rushes to defend himself with shitty WIFOM arguments.

Open 448 – The certainty with which he tosses out his reads in #53 and #81 jive with coming from an informed perspective. I think that confidence reaches a fever pitch in #97 – The certainty with which he expresses his rationale behind his Paschendale FoS (his partner) is, to use his word, “unnerving.” #184 is more ultra-defensive nonsense upon being called out by malp where he tries to shut down the point with hyperbolic rhetoric and bad WIFOM arguments. Also to note is the sheer amount of null/scumreads contained within. His FoS on Venrob in #186 (coincidentally, another partner) is also very shallow and fake. Also, note that he is not above ultra bussing, as shown by his #1150, where he guilties his partner.

Now to take a look at his play here.

Take a look at his catchup posts (#478 + #479). Take a look at his reads list here and you can immediately see something is off. He has a huge number of null/scumreads which is just unnatural, especially given his replace in posts in the town games I mentioned and much more matches his catch-up posts in Open 448. The next thing to note is how he tries to shut down Nero Cain’s posting by painting it as laughable and unworthy of credibility (“I find it funny that Nero Cain…” / “The fact that Nero Cain considers multi-posting a scumtell is hilarious.”), which fits strongly in line with how he dismisses posting as scum. The confidence with which he attempts to push Jacob as scum is also unnatural given how he usually plays as town in the above games.

His case against Jacob in #532, as we have pointed out, reeks of trying to shoe-horn scum intent into Jacob’s posting. He basically admits that everything he comment on in that post is null at worst in #534 and his proclamation that he is trying to present a neutral and unbiased portrait of Jacob’s play in this game makes no sense given the context and the slant behind his posting. He seems convinced that Jacob is scum and tries to pivot everything around that.
#584 + #610 is once again him trying to discredit unfavorable posting (“Right now, all I hear is Regfan saying "Empire is saying this, Empire is saying that, etc." / “Empire, your suspicion on me…”) by shutting down my meta-based arguments pre-emptively. #732 is another attempt discredit my meta-read on him by missing the forest for the trees – yes, him having a one track mind as scum is one of my arguments but it’s one of several. #746 is yet more discrediting nonsense. #754 is hilarious – he knows damn well from Black Flag Nightless that my meta cases take a very long time to compile (especially considering that he knew from that game that I had a busy week that week). It’s just another cheap shot attempting to pre-emptively discredit me before that case ever comes. The rest of his posts past D2 are just basically really superficial attempts to scumhunt – a bunch of aimless questions that really head nowhere and is just attempts by him to seem contributory and active.

#724 – I want every single player alive to read this specific post in context.

THIS IS A SLAM DUNK SCUMTELL: HE HAD ZERO VOTES ON HIM AT THE TIME AND WAS IN NO DANGER OF BEING LYNCHED. WHY THE ULTRA DEFENSIVE SELF-PRESERVATIONALIST ATTITUDE HERE?

Anyway, if you’ve made it this far (~1,120 words), I’m really fucking hoping that you can see the astronomical difference between how he plays as town and how he plays as scum. Hopefully, you’re now aware of how obvious he is and are now willing to vote him.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

[Nostredeus]

So basically a tonne of people jumped a wagon in the last few minutes in an attempt to pressure town to lynch me or end up with a no-kill and no one is looking at the people who did it as suspicious?

Are you saying those that tried to compromise on a deadline lynch are scummy?

(Please continue to make posts like this, then I can feel better about ignoring 658.)

Np bro.

This is starting to feel like I've strapped a stray cat to my face claws first.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Empire's meta-case involves a lot of twisting things to his advantage. Let's go bit by bit.

1) Fixed reads vs variable reads

:

In the Micro 57 example given by Empire, I did initially have a town read on MoI. However, once that changed to a scum read, I never wavered from that position and continued through with that read during the next day phase. The initial town read was nothing more than a mistake since I hadn't fully caught up.

In Black Flag Nightless, I was fixated on N for entire duration of the game until the game ended. There was no ambiguity of any sort. While my other reads changed, my read on N was constant throughout.

Empire has neglected to mention this and misrepresents my town-meta as always changing my reads. I do sometimes change reads as town while sometimes I don't. It depends on the game, the strength of my reads and whether my reads do anything to convince me to change my mind. In two of the three town examples that Empire showed, my reads were not flexible so it isn't a scumtell. Of course, Empire knows that my read on N never changed in Black Flag Nightless so saying that my town meta is to have variable reads is a misrepresentation at best.

2) Bussing in Open 448

My reads in Open 448 were extremely detailed (but fake since I was mafia). http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p4395061 is a very comprehensive analysis of the game. Empire uses buzzwords and calls it "ultra-defensive nonsense" but doesn't explain why. The depth of analysis is indistinguishable from my analysis as town. He commends my town play using superlatives while discounting my scum play. However, Empire's analysis is all hindsight.

3) Active vs Inactive games

He picks games where I was inactive as scum but never picks games where I was inactive as town. In Micro 74, I was town and posted very little and soon got endgamed by the jester (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=23873).

During Open 448 above on the other hand, I was scum and pretended to provide detailed analysis.

In short, my ability and desire to provide analysis depends on my interest level in the game as opposed to affiliation. Some games are simply more interesting than others. Some games, I had to be prodded as town to post detailed analysis where as some games as scum, I was very pro-active. Empire's case doesn't take into account those factors and uses a select sample in order to help his case - judiciously selecting games which strengthen his case while neglecting ones which weaken his case.

In Possesed Pastors in a Paranoid Parish Mafia, I was town, (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=23146) and did not post much in that thread while posting profusely in a different thread. Reason: I was simply more interested in a different game. I am certainly capable of holding my own as scum when I am into the game and I can't play an optimal, maximally involved game everytime I am town. Real life stuff comes up. Some games end up being more interesting (for instance if one game is in LYLO and another is in page 1, I'll post a ton more in the first game than second - that isn't alignment indicative).

Nullreads

My huge number of initial nullreads were because I was having trouble distinguishing between various player. This is a large game. The games that Empire linked where I replaced in are Micros. Much easier to provide reads in a small game with a small number of people but in a large game, many people blur into the background and only the most striking parts are usually worthy of comment. As the game gets smaller, better reads develop. At least, that is how it is to me.

Case on Jacob

There was nothing scummy about my case on Jacob. I had good reason to believe he was scum. DY's interaction with Jacob smelled fake to me. I re-analyzed, considered vote counts, momentum of wagons, and DY's pushes to see if there was more to it. In the end, I turned out to be wrong but it was a lead to be followed.

Self-preservation

I wasn't paying attention to the vote count or what was happening when I made that post. Self-preservation is a null tell. I wouldn't want to be lynched regardless of my affiliation. After I caught up and analyzed everything, I figured Nost was our best shot at lynching scum.

Anyways, I am going to vote Nostredeus - for all the reasons given yesterday.

VOTE: Nostredeus

Also, if it is between him and me, I'd much rather he get lynched (what blatant self-preservation! I'd rather lynch a scumread than get lynched myself!)

[N]

If you think Empire is deliberately picking meta to suit his case, do you think GB are scum? Does a GB/Nost team make sense to you?

[4nxi3ty]

so no one's going to help me put pressure on RC -_- sigh

F16, explain why you chose to say you investigated jacob.

Nost, who do you think is most likely scum on your wagon yesterday?

[RedCoyote]

Because I'm not scum, lunkhead.

I can't believe Nost managed to squeeze through yesterday. The scumteam obviously had a hand in sparing his life there.

GB has made a strong, steady case, but that's par for the course with them. F-16 is yesterday's news. Nost is what's happening.

Vote: Nostredeus

I would've done this yesterday, but I truly wasn't here. I work a graveyard shift. I didn't check the thread until a few hours after the lynch took place.

[RedCoyote]

Addressing one point specifically though, GB, because you seem to put a lot of stock into it. It was fairly clear to me that F-16 was responding almost directly to your post 723 in his post 724. Maybe you're right, but it's certainly not a slam dunk scumtell in my eyes. A reasonable accusation, but it can be interpreted in a different way.

[4nxi3ty]

why did you specifically want an opinion from gb and f16 on wether or not to claim?

[RedCoyote]

Because neither of them were voting me and I thought either of them wouldn't hesitate to be the hammer, even if I wouldn't have been their first choice. I didn't think Plan B would choose me over UT (and I was right).

GB made it very clear that they thought UT was town (but not me). F-16 made it clear he was comfortable with my lynch.

[4nxi3ty]

unvote, vote: F16

due to Dy's comments about CB yet zero actual interaction.

[Nostredeus]

so no one's going to help me put pressure on RC -_- sigh

F16, explain why you chose to say you investigated jacob.

Nost, who do you think is most likely scum on your wagon yesterday?

I'm currently voting for F-16.