Mini 1398 - Game Over!

[Bacde]

ICENinja to be honest I agree with you there.

[Rob14]

@Cheery - Not confirmation bias, because I wrote my notes (which directly translated into that case) without reading ahead. In other words, I don't read ahead and then go back and write my thoughts on old posts. Those are only things I caught on my first read-through before I saw others reactions to the posts. If bias is present, it's a result of me developing a scum read on JMO early and being reluctant to let go of it. I don't think that's the case, though. He's been suspicious throughout.

[Cheery Dog]

If bias is present, it's a result of me developing a scum read on JMO early and being reluctant to let go of it.

That's what I was referring to as being confirmation bias
All but one of the posts (46) you mentioned were listed in your notes reading up (besides the ones that hadn't been posted at that stage), and this new case is just stating that all again, with more explanation.
It reads that you are all together too confident in your bacde/jmo scum pairing, yet they are different scum leads. I have them both currently leaning town, and therefore I believe you are trying to push two mislynches through today and tomorrow. (and then me as well the day after)

[Cheery Dog]

Yes, that's the game I was talking about, and thats not what I'm saying, it's just that it's a complete turnaround from that game up until your post 453. You didn't seem to wanted to say anything about the more popular cases, such as shamrock or bacde.

My input on them would have been "what everyone said earlier", I prefer not to make those kind of comments because they add nothing to the discussion, and only did it with Rob's reply to my other post at the bottom of last page because that was a lot of information to just stop talking about without notice.

[Rob14]

(and then me as well the day after)

You realize I have never said I had any type of scum read on you, right? I don't get where this comes from.

I already dropped the idea of the Bacde lynch anytime soon after the reasons for doing so were explained. I maintain him as a scum read, but it's not pertinent to act upon it at this time. I will, of course, see if anything changes my read on him as time progresses.

Your claim that I'm trying to push through the lynches of three specific people in a row is severely lacking in support when you consider that I'm not actively trying to lynch one of them (Bacde) and one of them isn't even a scum read of mine at this time (you).

[Cheery Dog]

Lean Scum:

Cheery

JMO

Scum:
Bacde

[Rob14]

Did I say that? I seem to have selective memory at the moment. I need to re-ISO you and figure out

why

exactly I wrote that when I did my catch-up over the night phase. That's not a job for 1AM, though.

[Rob14]

In the mean time, I will say that you've rubbed me as town so far this day. Not going to grab quotes to explain at this hour, but waiting for my opinion on that one post of Absta looked like you genuinely wanted to consider all possibilities and get my perspective before pushing for a lynch. That looked like it came from town, in my opinion.

[jmo16mla]

New town game if anyone wants to read it. It's Mayasons and mafear. By om of the nom.

[Jabberwock]

Tierce-head will be V/LA until December 19th.

My access on the 17th will probably depend on whether I can find a power socket in the Dublin airport. Will likely be in jetlag coma come the 19th.

Empire is enjoying birthday and post-birthday hijinks. We're a busy Wondercritter.

[absta101]

Mod, prod Nacho?

[Bacde]

I'm happy enough with my vote right now.

[Alduskkel]

Vote Count #20

jmo16mla (2) - iamausername, Rob13
Rob13 (1) - Cheery Dog
Melmond (1) - Jabberwock
absta101 (1) - Nachomamma8
ICEninja (1) - Bacde

Not Voting (5) - Melmond, Mirhawk, absta101, jmo16mla, ICEninja

Deadline is in: (expired on 2013-01-01 16:30:00)

11 alive, 6 to lynch.

Mod, prod Nacho?

In 23 hours if he hasn't posted by then.

[ICEninja]

Alright so in looking at the Shamrock wagon, I feel like Melmond is our most likely scum here. His 319 gives Shamrock an out (flake, not scum), but still shows what I read as false support of the wagon. In 334, he totally pulls the breaks and tries to get a replacement in the slot, knowing full well that a majority of the case against Shamrock was lurking based, and that a replacement could probably survive the situation.

People have expressed town motivation for these posts, but honestly I feel like it benefits scum buddy Melmond a hell of a lot more than concerned townie Melmond. Busing for town cred would have given him minimal benefit at that point, and he had a LOT to gain from getting a replacement in to the game.

This is especially true given that on his day 1 reads list, Shamrock is put as the scummiest slot (and I feel that list is indeed in order because absta, who is his "slightly" scummy read, is at the other end of it) yet he votes for Disturbed. The FoS scumbuddy, vote townie is almost ubiquitous in my experience, especially on day 1.

He wasn't present during much of day 1, but he pretty much didn't scum hunt at ALL. One catchup post explaining his reads, going back on his Bacdescum read, then trying to put breaks on the Shamrock wagon is all he had.

His day 2 content is likewise very non committal, and his complete lack of useful votes this entire game worries me.

Yeah, he's our best bet right now.

Vote Melmond

.

[Bacde]

ICENinja grasping at straws ITT

[ICEninja]

Bacde attempting to discredit my case against his remaining scum buddy.

[ICEninja]

I just became MUCH more confident about this vote actually.

[Rob14]

Can you explain what you don't like about Ice's case, Bacde?

[Rob14]

I think that if Melmond is scum, Bacde-scum is unlikely. Melmond had both Shamrock and Bacde in his four scum reads. I can see him putting one there for bussing purposes easily, but both? That's very risky.

[Bacde]

Sorry bud, this ain't my scum game.

Your case on Melmond is weaker than your case on Cheery Dog.

I can tell you are scum because you are so committed to needing to avoid me.

P-Edit: Rob, here is why I don't buy the Melmond case:

-ICENinja's motivations just became highly suspect to me
-Why would Melmond try to stop the Shamrock wagon at L-1 if he was scum? When did he ever actually put effort into stopping the wagon, rather than just trying to gain more information before the inevitable lynch? How are Melmond's non-contributions worse than Cheery Dog's? Why isn't ICENinja voting for Cheery Dog?

[Bacde]

Here's my thoughts:

If I was scum right now, I would be able to use my (obvious) influence over ICENinja's votes to my advantage. Town-ICENinja (who genuinely believes I am scum) would be aware of this, and wouldn't place so much weight into where I am voting. Scum-ICENinja (who knows I am town) would pretend to avoid my votes like the plague, appearing town and also simultaneously being able to move his votes around for construed reasons.

Seriously, I never double-guess myself just because a scumread votes alongside me. That's antitown reasoning.

The fact that ICENinja is using this weird reason to justify his vote on Melmond who undoubtedly has a weaker case against him than Cheery Dog leads me to believe that ICENinja is scum.

[Melmond]

Alright so in looking at the Shamrock wagon, I feel like Melmond is our most likely scum here. His 319 gives Shamrock an out (flake, not scum), but still shows what I read as false support of the wagon. In 334, he totally pulls the breaks and tries to get a replacement in the slot, knowing full well that a majority of the case against Shamrock was lurking based, and that a replacement could probably survive the situation.

People have expressed town motivation for these posts, but honestly I feel like it benefits scum buddy Melmond a hell of a lot more than concerned townie Melmond. Busing for town cred would have given him minimal benefit at that point, and he had a LOT to gain from getting a replacement in to the game.

This is especially true given that on his day 1 reads list, Shamrock is put as the scummiest slot (and I feel that list is indeed in order because absta, who is his "slightly" scummy read, is at the other end of it) yet he votes for Disturbed. The FoS scumbuddy, vote townie is almost ubiquitous in my experience, especially on day 1.

He wasn't present during much of day 1, but he pretty much didn't scum hunt at ALL. One catchup post explaining his reads, going back on his Bacdescum read, then trying to put breaks on the Shamrock wagon is all he had.

His day 2 content is likewise very non committal, and his complete lack of useful votes this entire game worries me.

Yeah, he's our best bet right now.
Vote Melmond.

I think we got pretty lucky with the way Shamrock flipped. It really could have gone either way. I've seen lurkers flip town just as much if not more than scum. Other than lurking, the case on him wasn't very good.
Post 216 is the only one that really didn't sit well with me, because it didn't feel right.
Also the reads weren't in order. Shamrock and Disturbed one were somewhat close, but I did vote disturbed one. Also, in the town reads, you would have been above nacho.

Also, I don't think jmo is scum. He seems pretty much the same as the last game I was in with him, and he was town in that game too. He just has a habit of saying things that get him in trouble/joking/getting emotional.

I'll post more in a bit. Going to eat now.

[Melmond]

VOTE: absta
I'm still thinking he's scum. A lot of the questions in his iso look like fluff. And I don't have any better scumreads, other than bacde, but he's not getting lynched today for obvious reasons.

[ICEninja]

I think that if Melmond is scum, Bacde-scum is unlikely. Melmond had both Shamrock and Bacde in his four scum reads. I can see him putting one there for bussing purposes easily, but both? That's very risky.

Read Melmond's next post after his scum list. He retracts Bacde from it.

-Why would Melmond try to stop the Shamrock wagon at L-1 if he was scum?

Because you had already claimed bodyguard, and Melmond knew the wagon on Shamrock would dissolve if he was replaced. All he had to do was delay his lynch. A more active person swaps in, Melmond comes and says "yup more active player, no longer suspicious of that slot, let's lynch Disturbed!" Plus he knew that since you claimed bodyguard you weren't going to make it to lylo so if Shamrock was indeed the day 1 lynch then Melmond would essentially be on his own to win the game. The best thing he can do is get as much town cred as he can by busing the shit out of you at this point, which he's doing a great job of so far. I'm almost buying it.

Post 520 is lots of scum WIFOM that serves no purpose except to mix hypothetical and uncertain situations in to the game.

Also the reads weren't in order. Shamrock and Disturbed one were somewhat close, but I did vote disturbed one. Also, in the town reads, you would have been above nacho.

See I don't buy that. The psychology of writing them down would put them in SOME order. If nothing else, then the order you happened to think of them. Considering how absta, at the time, was your weakest scum read and you had very little to say about him, combined with the fact that he was your 3rd in the list of whom you explained, this doesn't track. I simply can't follow how your thought process would have placed absta as first in that list unless you meant he was the least scummy, which you actually did say so. Which would imply that Shamrock was the scummiest of the list.

And how can you go back and say that I was a stronger town read than Nacho? We can't exactly take that on faith.

[Melmond]

Read Melmond's next post after his scum list. He retracts Bacde from it.

I never retracted him. What I said was that I had a misunderstanding about another thing having to do with his reads, so I wasn't going to make that post about it. He's still scum to me.