Alright, finally got a chance to catch up on this game. Figured that, rather than write a super-long catch-up wall that no one will ever read, I'd work on trying to rule out TH's partners. I think newer/inexperienced scum players aren't particularly good at hiding their partners so combing through his interactions with other slots will be helpful in trying to PoE this thing. Feel free to comment on this stuff, I'm going to break it up into several parts as I go along.
ThunderHog's Interactions With Other Slots (Part One):
BT
: Not understanding why people view him as a possible TH buddy, think TH’s vote on him in #407 (his opening post) at a time when BT was drawing a lot of heat seems more like trying to capitalize on a ML opportunity rather than a bus. I think it’s further reinforced by the bullet points of reasoning TH offers in #697 and some of the exaggerated language he uses to build up his case (e.g., “BT has been completely inconsistent nearly this entire game, and it's rather blatant.”). Normally, I find that noob-scum don’t make cases like this on their partners but they do when they want to jump on an easy wagon on town. Back and forth with TH starting in BT’s #867 also points against BT being on his team as I think the frustration he shows towards TH seems unlikely to be directed at a partner (e.g., “If you're referring to the first two posts STILL then 1) you're bad and 2) I already explained this horrible inconsistency because really it wasn't.”) Think BT getting cold feet over TH starting at #1517 is pretty genuine too and comes in well before the TH wagon took off (I believe at the time we were the biggest wagon and TH was in no serious danger of getting lynched).
Iecerint
: A lot of the early comments Iec makes about TH, particularly in his first big catch-up wall, are things that I think he could plausibly say as scum to his buddy but I’m 100% with Gamma’s reasoning that TH trying to placate Iec by putting a vote down in #1584/#1607 points pretty strongly against Iec being on his team. Also think that Iec’s “tragic mislynch” comment in #1769 seems like an unlikely thing to say about a scum partner.
Vollkan
: Going to have to look more into vollkan’s meta to see how he treats his partner re: bussing but I think the points he brings up against TH in #794/#1457 + later callouts are perfectly rational and unlikely to come from a TH scumbuddy (the thrust of it being that TH is trying to blow up BT’s innocuous comments into something really scummy and that he tries to cover his ass by backtracking in later posts). I also like the way he’s constantly pushing the wagon by asking people throughout his ISO what they think of TH and his case. Finally, TH trying to ridicule vollkan for his points system seems like a way to discredit him and his push.
Wyrd
: Another player(s) I need to meta-check re: bussing…little interaction early on but I liked Nuwen’s first mention of TH in #1330 and her suspicion of him revolving around his attitude in-game and Fate ultimately voting him in #1636/#1638. What really helps me solidify them not being on TH’s team is the frankly ridiculous, exaggerated reaction he had to their vote in #1669 and the push on them for “inside information” based on their confidence (e.g., “What do you mean pushing?…”/”And how are YOU so sure of this? You do seem pretty confident - you must know something that we don't.”).
Also have to remember to meta-check Zoraster as well seeing as my initial impression of his TH vote was the same as Faraday pointed out: an overjustification that seems jarring in the context of his play this game.