NY 160: Terrible Melodrama Mafia (Game Over)

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Sure, if it'll speed this process up. We're a VT.

RC, claim.

[Empking]

Yeah, that was me (Reg) and no? Pretty sure I've seen weak doctor be both of those in past games.

Pretty sure this is a normal game.

Anyway lets get a move on with the mass-claim. Empkings first.

VT

Can GB claim now.

I messed up my quoted in the first post.

[N]

I don't know why you popcorned to GB. It's pretty obvious Anxiety targeted them at least once.

[Empking]

I don't know why you popcorned to GB. It's pretty obvious Anxiety targeted them at least once.

Why?

[N]

Because Anxiety was a weak doctor? If a weak doctor targets scum, they die.

[Empking]

Because Anxiety was a weak doctor? If a weak doctor targets scum, they die.

And that causes 4nx to target GB, how?

[DeasVail]

Prodding ArcAngel9.

[N]

Because Anxiety was a weak doctor? If a weak doctor targets scum, they die.

And that causes 4nx to target GB, how?

Because 4nx had GB as a townread. 2+2=4.

[Empking]

Because Anxiety was a weak doctor? If a weak doctor targets scum, they die.

And that causes 4nx to target GB, how?

Because 4nx had GB as a townread. 2+2=4.

He really didn't breadcrumb though (except UT), GB does make most sense as his N2 target however (mostly for 'Why not sheep Reg'.)

[RedCoyote]

Alright. Debating whether or not I should claim my actual role, but I figure it may buy me a little more creditability. Further, since we're in a mass claim situation, my earlier (quite possibly too obvious) attempt at attracting a night kill did not work, and I don't think I will get shot should we go to another night phase, I will claim

Bulletproof

.

I really dislike having to do this. I think the whole point of the role is to not have to claim it, but for the reasons listed above, I think it's the best choice at this time. I could never seemingly pose a strong enough threat to the scumteam, and I also propose that the scumteam intentionally left me alive as lynch bait. So for how I have failed in using my role properly to attract a kill, I will make a stand against GB.

First of, N is not on point to call 4nx's protection obvious. 4nx is on record calling GB, N, and Emp all town. I just went through his ISO, so I know this for a fact. Additionally, although he never really came out and literally said he saw plan B as town, he defended him consistently throughout the game. So, really, we don't learn much from 4nx, unfortunately. To be sure, I'm actually a little frustrated that 4nx wasn't more loose with the information he had. I mean, we can assume that he didn't have enough to finish the game, but it may have made today a hell of a lot easier had he told us whom he DID successfully visit. The only solid, concrete thing we can really conclude from 4nx is that he definitely did not visit me last night. Seriously. I am completely off the table for today's lynch because of 4nx, ironically. Of course, it should be noted that if there are two scum left (as opposed to one scum or one scum/SK) then I could very well be scum in that instance, but there's literally no reason to take that chance on D5. It's illogical. And I intend to argue strongly for this point if I need to, not just for the obvious bias I have in keeping myself alive, but because objectively it's the right thing to do for the town.

The more important thing to look at now is VCA between our remaining four candidates:

D1 Lynch

PiggyGal15

(8)-

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

,

Untrod Tripod

,

Nero Cain

,

4nxi3ty

, Empking, Gentlemen Bastards,

Toon Fighter

,

Demon Core

Nero Cain

(2)- Plan B,

PiggyGal15

N (2)- RedCoyote,

DoomYoshi

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

(1)-

JacobSavage

DoomYoshi

(1)-

adorkable

Not voting: N

D2 Lynch

Toon Fighter

(7)-

4nxi3ty

, Empking, RedCoyote, Gentlemen Bastards, N,

Untrod Tripod

,

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

JacobSavage

(1)-

Toon Fighter

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

(1)-

JacobSavage

Plan B (1)-

Nero Cain

Not voting:

adorkable

, Plan B

D3 (No) Lynch

Nostredeus

(5)-

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

, Plan B, Gentlemen Bastards, N,

JacobSavage

RedCoyote (3)-

4nxi3ty

,

Untrod Tripod

,

Nostredeus

Untrod Tripod

(2)- Empking, RedCoyote

D4 Lynch

Nostredeus

(5)- Empking,

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

, RedCoyote, N,

4nxi3ty

RedCoyote (2)-

Nostredeus

, Gentlemen Bastards
Not voting: ArcAngel9

Based on final counts alone, I think Empking and GB clearly look to be the worst of the group. They both stick out like a sore thumb on the D1 lynch. Both are riding Toon on D2. And while Emp was a part of the Nost lynch, GB was a part of that weird, last minute push to get him lynched on D3. I think, personally, that GB looks worse here. Mainly because that D3 was scramble was orchestrated in large part by F-16, GB's nemesis, and GB had been consistently a supporter of Nost even before D4. He did suspect him somewhat earlier in the game, but on D3 he had pretty much been in his camp. Why he took such a supportive stand for him on D4 and not on D3 is strange, even taking into context the last minute push on D3. Further, Nost

was

a townie, meaning the nonchalance of those of us on D3 to lynch him, advertent or not, was actually a town tell. Scum would've been more eager for a Nost lynch on D3. There was no reason for either me or Emp to not jump on that lynch. I can't speak for Emp, but had I been scum, I would've assuredly been here to make sure a lynch went through... because had that lynch gone through, along with another town lynch yesterday, the game would be over.

I went through the players that these two replaced, Senjai and theamateur, and I found little to hang your hat on. Senjai does do that thing where he throws a little suspicion at C+B (F-16) early on that always rubs me the wrong way, but it's nothing serious in the greater context of his activity, I think.

One thing I love about VCA is it puts everyone on the same level. One person, one vote. Despite whatever finagling they can concoct to make themselves look better or worse, a vote is a vote is a vote. It's important and has real, quantifiable meaning in the endgame. GB did well to push F-16 like they did, but they're also in compromising situations with these lynches. Caught with their hands in the cookie jar one too many times. Them finding me scum at the last minute because I didn't join the D3 wagon is, while logical prior to Nost's flip, is flipped on its head that we know Nost is town. As I made it clear before, I have to be wrong on one of my town reads between GB, Emp, and ArcAngel. I do not see enough evidence that would persuade me to vote ArcAngel today. VCA goes a long way in helping me eliminate N as our best shot at hitting scum... I think the choice today needs to be between Emp and GB, and I think that choice is GB.

[RedCoyote]

EBWOP: First

off

Additionally, I agree with GB that we should not vote until the mass claim has finished. I am adhering to that.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Hahahahahahahhahawhahwhahahahahahha.

RC knew his only chance today was pushing against us and a fuckload of what he just said is literally blatant bullshit. In the middle of a family gathering though so I'll elaborate on it all in a little bit, probably an hour or two.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Also fuck holding cards close to our chest, we're pretty sure Empking is a SK, we thought he was a vig, or odd night vig earlier which is why we thought he was town but the flip of 4nxiety and his claim means that it's very very very likely he's a SK. Again more detail later and we think RC is scum, poe alongside with his interactions with all flipped scum and his flip of his read on us now as a pre-emptive defence which is the exact same fucking thing that F-16 did against us really solidifies that.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Also reading either us or F-16 or literally anything that's happened in this game should make it abundantly obvious that we're town.

There's about 10 things at the very minimum that point heavily heavily heavily against the possibility of N-scum and about as many pointing against Arc-scum so as long as there's no fuck ups this game (Which Empire thinks Arc might do sadly) this should be a win.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Oh and just a heads up, Empire already knows but we didn't think it'd matter since I thought we'd get nked a while ago but I'm going on a cruise in about three days from now that'll last just above two weeks so I won't have any internet activity at all.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Based on final counts alone, I think Empking and GB clearly look to be the worst of the group. They both stick out like a sore thumb on the D1 lynch. Both are riding Toon on D2. And while Emp was a part of the Nost lynch, GB was a part of that weird, last minute push to get him lynched on D3. I think, personally,

that GB looks worse here. Mainly because that D3 was scramble was orchestrated in large part by F-16, GB's nemesis, and GB had been consistently a supporter of Nost even before D4. He did suspect him somewhat earlier in the game, but on D3 he had pretty much been in his camp.

Why he took such a supportive stand for him on D4 and not on D3 is strange, even taking into context the last minute push on D3.

Further, Nost

was

a townie, meaning the nonchalance of those of us on D3 to lynch him, advertent or not, was actually a town tell. Scum would've been more eager for a Nost lynch on D3. There was no reason for either me or Emp to not jump on that lynch. I can't speak for Emp, but had I been scum, I would've assuredly been here to make sure a lynch went through... because had that lynch gone through, along with another town lynch yesterday, the game would be over.

As I made it clear before, I have to be wrong on one of my town reads between GB, Emp, and ArcAngel. I do not see enough evidence that would persuade me to vote ArcAngel today. VCA goes a long way in helping me eliminate N as our best shot at hitting scum... I think the choice today needs to be between Emp and GB, and I think that choice is GB.

We didn't want Nost lynched in the slightest, we, I especially (Will admit that Empire wasn't 100% convinced as much as I was) was pretty damn sure that he was town and that a lot of his play was incredibly genuine. The legit only reason we voted him on D3 was a last minute compromise with the deadline, something that you said that 'anybody not on is likely scum' which makes your change of stance of 'anybody of is likely town' completely illogical because then you'd essentially be saying that an action that X townie did in occurrence A can be a scum-tell while being a town-tell, ie. your entire line of logic there makes no sense whatsoever, it's just you scrambling trying to frantically throw shit at us. The underlined makes no sense whatsoever; with the D3 scenario it was either lynch no one or lynch someone that while I thought was town we weren't sold on at the time and had a chance to flip scum and on the D4 scenario there was no time issue it was as simple as lynch someone I thought was scum or someone I thought was town which is an easy decision. Not to mention that our change of read on you had nothing to do with you not voting for Nost on D3, absolutely nothing to do with it, in fact we explained why we thought you were scum in massive amounts of detail so there's no way that you'd 'mistake' our reasoning, you're just attempting to manipulate and decredit us, something again that F-16 did too.

Not to mention that while VCA is useless (Though I know that some people believe otherwise) RC is also of the thought process in other games that VCA is more useful as a WHOLE ie. where peoples votes where all game, especially regarding flipped scum and not just of the lynches VCs, him just focusing on that again is an attempt to manipulate information to try and throw shit because he knows otherwise he has nothing to make up about us.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Anyway, will be going into everything else in more detail later. Only just got a minute of from the family over.

We still do need to finish the mass-claim thought; N and Arc, get in here and claim, order doesn't matter as much now.

[ArcAngel9]

Prodding ArcAngel9.

Sorry for not being active. i was here reading and i forgot about posting.
Can someone please have the current vote tally?

[ArcAngel9]

Anyway, will be going into everything else in more detail later. Only just got a minute of from the family over.

We still do need to finish the mass-claim thought; N and Arc, get in here and claim, order doesn't matter as much now.

Am here, what do you want to know?

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Alright, Empire here, posting a summary of why RC's interactions with C+B/F-16 pretty much make him obvious scum (not including DY here since they didn't interact much at all). Regfan can feel free to add more to this when he comes back.

REDCOYOTE & C+B/F-16 - A SCUM LOVE STORY:

For readability's sake, I won't include block quotes in this and instead just link to the relevant posts here below.

#255 - C+B's only mention of RC during the time he was here and it's pretty much classic Scum Distancing 101. It's the kind of middle of the road stance (that's not really a stance) scum often end up taking on their partners. The way it's written necessarily suggests he has no actual read on RC and has him as solidly null.

#479 - More lame middle of the road stance-taking, this time from F-16 ("Long quote-stripe walls from RedCoyote - hate reading such posts while catching up. But let's see: Lot of agreement betwen PlanB and RedC though nothing suspicious. RedC is still null, plan B is still town."). Overall, despite having RC as null, F-16 pretty much keeps him in his blind spot. There's no attempt by F-16 to pressure RC in any significant form to gauge his alignment and he provides extremely little in the way of analysis on RC.

#477/#483 - I know Regfan already mentioned this before but it bears repeating - the vote shifts in both of those posts are seriously awkward and jarring. The former switch onto F-16 comes literally out of nowhere, is backed by no reasoning whatsoever, and makes no sense given that he had never previously expressed suspicion on his slot. The unvote and switch onto Toon comes only 12 hours later and backed by reasoning that has zero basis in the events of the game ("GB, what do y'all say to the fact that DY was pushing C+B suspicions pretty hard throughout the day? You don't think it was too hard?"). DY spent most of D1 pushing the Jacob and Piggy wagons; he never voted C+B or pressured them in any meaningful way so there is no reason for him to say that DY pushed C+B "pretty hard". He places F-16 at the end of his preferences ("Having trouble with scumreads in this game, but I think Toon > NC > F-16 right now.") despite the fact that nothing in F-16's posts would make him switch from voting him to keeping him at the end. Overall, the vote comes off as his attempt to distance himself from F-16 and then reach for reasons to switch away onto another wagon.

#611 - One of the few times F-16 directly addresses RC and it's completely banal. Given that scum have daytalk via the Encryptor, it seems likely that RC's comment quoted here and F-16's response was meant solely to set up the latter's cop fakeclaim in thread.

#645 - Again, this is the conclusion of one of the few times F-16 directly addresses RC, this time re: RC town meta. F-16 puts it on his "to do" list but there's no evidence he ever actually considers RC's meta or follows up on the point in any manner.

#794 - RC labels F-16 "yesterday's news," which again is unsupported by the actual events of the game. F-16 was in no danger of being lynched the previous day (Nostre was the leading wagon) and there's no showing that RC seriously considers our case on F-16 - if he thought it was a "strong, steady case" why didn't he just sheep it? Furthermore, as Regfan pointed out, the assertion that the scum team "obviously had a hand in sparing [Nostre's] life" makes no sense. In #694, RC claims to have townreads on 4nx and Empking, both of whom were voting away from the Nostre wagon on the NL day. The fact that he makes the statement in #794 without actually either reconsidering his townreads or reconsidering the statement itself makes no sense from a town perspective. By this point, it should be pretty clear that he's deliberately misrepresenting the events of the game to either push MLs or protect his partner.

#809 - A somewhat reluctant shift onto asking F-16 to claim - it's very likely they had already planned out F-16's cop fakeclaim by this point so this post basically exists to facilitate the claim and drive the lynch away.

Next post devoted to responding to RC's #934.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Alright. Debating whether or not I should claim my actual role, but I figure it may buy me a little more creditability. Further, since we're in a mass claim situation, my earlier (quite possibly too obvious) attempt at attracting a night kill did not work, and I don't think I will get shot should we go to another night phase, I will claim

Bulletproof

.

Disingenuous bullshit claim. #717 happened as you were being run up for a lynch - there was pretty obviously no intention of "drawing a night kill" but rather an attempt to save your own ass from a lynch by softing a PR.

First of, N is not on point to call 4nx's protection obvious. 4nx is on record calling GB, N, and Emp all town. I just went through his ISO, so I know this for a fact. Additionally, although he never really came out and literally said he saw plan B as town, he defended him consistently throughout the game. So, really, we don't learn much from 4nx, unfortunately. To be sure, I'm actually a little frustrated that 4nx wasn't more loose with the information he had. I mean, we can assume that he didn't have enough to finish the game, but it may have made today a hell of a lot easier had he told us whom he DID successfully visit.

Actually, if you had bothered to read 4nx's ISO, he addresses us/talks to us as if he

knows

we're town throughout the entire game (see also: the over the top nature of his townread/defense on our slot in #823 which points to this). His reaction at the end of the last day phase also seems to come from the perspective of someone who knows our alignment. Also, from my understanding (Regfan can elaborate on this a bit more, since I'm still new to understanding how certain roles work), your post makes no sense even if you're trying to argue that weak doctor (as hider) dies if the person they target gets shot (for 4nx to have visited us and have died that way, we would both have to be dead).

Regfan already responded to the VCA, but I want to add one more thing: here's a fairly recent instance of RC manipulating VCA to push for a mislynch in lylo.

I went through the players that these two replaced, Senjai and theamateur, and I found little to hang your hat on. Senjai does do that thing where he throws a little suspicion at C+B (F-16) early on that always rubs me the wrong way, but it's nothing serious in the greater context of his activity, I think.

More disingenuous bullshit that fails to take into account any of our slot's interactions with F-16. We, especially me, spent most of this game tunneling F-16's slot and I even went so far as to create a monster, meta-driven case to push for his lynch. I think at this point it's patently obvious that you're deliberately misrepresenting the events of the game. Bonus: here is DY trying to discredit our analysis, particularly the meta-driven nature of it.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Am here, what do you want to know?

We're massclaiming. Please claim your role in your next post.

[Empking]

Also fuck holding cards close to our chest, we're pretty sure Empking is a SK, we thought he was a vig, or odd night vig earlier which is why we thought he was town but the flip of 4nxiety and his claim means that it's very very very likely he's a SK. Again more detail later and we think RC is scum, poe alongside with his interactions with all flipped scum and his flip of his read on us now as a pre-emptive defence which is the exact same fucking thing that F-16 did against us really solidifies that.

RC claimed BP; he's pretty clearly a SK.

[N]

I think VCA can be useful, but I'm not sure sure when we haven't actually lynched any mafia.

I may as well claim now; I'm also a VT.

[N]

RC claimed BP; he's pretty clearly a SK.

I'm not sure why a serial killer would be so blatant. If he's sk, he could have very easily claimed vig; I mean, if he is, he's shot two mafia and at least one highly-suspected/null town.