Open 459: There is a New Scum in Town. Game Over Town Wins!

[buldermar]

The "I hate sheeping Majiffy" was more of a joke than anything else. The vote in and of itself wasn't really lazy, either; kmd was sitting pretty solidly in null where he normally doesn't at all. I wanted to see him do more, and so I voted him. If I liked specific points of the case and considered pushing it myself, then I would have, but I wanted the wagon to grow for reasons other than "kmd is scum, lynch him", and so you didn't get more reasoning from me.

I don't buy this explanation. Obviously I can't prove that it's not true, but hey, this isn't a court and I simply don't buy it.

[buldermar]

Lack of explanation, yes. Lack of reasoning, no. KMD's #713 was honest and wasn't really what I expected at all to see from kmd-scum. I've seen him in shitty places before, but he's not the type to quit because people absolutely have him pegged. Him throwing his arms up and sort of accepting the lynch while giving a realistic answer to my request and not a promise that would buy him potential time which could direct the lynch somewhere else gave me a strong townread. You also note that Majiffy asks me the reason for my sudden jump, but you don't note Majiffy's own sudden jump, which came right before mine. Why?

Prove that this explanation isn't fabricated. That is, show where you've pointed this out before now. Otherwise, I can safely disregard it.

I suppose I didn't note Majiffy's own sudden jump because I was interested in interpreting your posts in the game at the time and so that was where my attention was at.

[borkjerfkin]

VOTE: Majiffy

[buldermar]

...except I wasn't necessarily that sure about the case when the day first started, and it's not really a good idea to start pushing the case before your read is strong. Putting out big cases on people will always help to confirm your bias in 90% of cases, so when you do that, you're essentially saying that you're ready for that player to be lynched. And I wasn't ready to make a call for someone to be lynched just then.

That depends on how you construct your cases. While I do get your point, and although your point may be valid in many circumstances, I do not trust it to be the reason right here. Again: I can't prove that any one post definitively comes from scum, nor can I prove the opposite; you're too experienced for me to do that. What I can do, though, is take a holistic look and estimate how likely you are to take this exact line of posting as town compared to scum. I think you're most likely to take it as scum, which, in turn, skews your alignment towards scum.

[buldermar]

Anyway, our conversation is not leading anywhere because a) there is little you can do now to convince me to interpret the past posts in a different way, b) there is close to no interest in lynching you and, as such, c) I'm not going to vote you when you're not going to get lynched anyway.

[Nachomamma8]

The second part is exactly what I was doing. I buddied up to Fe, and pretty much offered to sheep him because I wanted to see how he would react. He was sort of crumbling under pressure, and I have a tendency to protect the fuck out of weaker players who are under a shit ton of pressure because I don't agree with the cases against them and end up getting townreads on them even if they are obviously scum, and it's an Achilles heel I've been working on.

My point is that you were trying to force the attention on someone other than Fe by having him make a case on someone else, that is, directing attention away from him.

I didn't expect Fe to make an amazing case; I expected him to make a genuine case. If I was trying to direct attention away from him, I think it would be a far better move to do something like writing the case on Fizz myself and adding to the counterwagon instead of putting all the pressure on Fe to direct the lynch away from himself.

It's irrelevant, but it doesn't really point to my alignment either way.

I think it does because vote analysis would point to you being on the wagon when you were not in support of his lynch before the very last minut where it become obvious that he was getting lynched.

Vote analysis that says someone is town because they were on one scum wagon is terrible vote analysis. Vote analysis that says someone is scum because they are off one scum wagon is terrible vote analysis. I would not be afraid of a vote analysis that bad as scum.

I don't buy this explanation. Obviously I can't prove that it's not true, but hey, this isn't a court and I simply don't buy it.

You can't prove it, but you can explain why you think town-Nacho wouldn't follow my explanation while scum-Nacho would be more inclined to follow your explanation.

Prove that this explanation isn't fabricated. That is, show where you've pointed this out before now. Otherwise, I can safely disregard it.

I haven't pointed it out before now. Even if it had, it wouldn't make it proven to be genuine and not a fabrication. The same challenge to this response as the last one.

That depends on how you construct your cases. While I do get your point, and although your point may be valid in many circumstances, I do not trust it to be the reason right here.

Why then do you think that I hesitated in providing my case?

[Nachomamma8]

Anyway, our conversation is not leading anywhere because a) there is little you can do now to convince me to interpret the past posts in a different way, b) there is close to no interest in lynching you and, as such, c) I'm not going to vote you when you're not going to get lynched anyway.

This doesn't mean the conversation is useless.

[buldermar]

I didn't expect Fe to make an amazing case; I expected him to make a genuine case. If I was trying to direct attention away from him, I think it would be a far better move to do something like writing the case on Fizz myself and adding to the counterwagon instead of putting all the pressure on Fe to direct the lynch away from himself.

I disagree. If you did so you could end up directing attention towards yourself. Note that you were not "putting all the pressure on Fe" as you claim - you were merely hinting to him that now is the time for him to present a case on someone so that you can agree with it and direct attention that way.

[buldermar]

Vote analysis that says someone is town because they were on one scum wagon is terrible vote analysis. Vote analysis that says someone is scum because they are off one scum wagon is terrible vote analysis. I would not be afraid of a vote analysis that bad as scum.

Vote analysis

is

bad. That doesn't mean it doesn't happen, nor does it mean that it is not commonly utilized as town to justify wrongfully voting someone believed to be scum. Hence, the safe thing to do is to be on that final wagon as scum. This is why I think you'll do this more often as scum than as town, but still often as town as well.

[buldermar]

You can't prove it, but you can explain why you think town-Nacho wouldn't follow my explanation while scum-Nacho would be more inclined to follow your explanation.

Scum-Nacho can only resort to fabricating a plausible explanation. I can't falsify the hypothesis that your explanation is fabricated because it's fabricated in a way that doesn't allow me to. Some percentage of the time when you're town, you'll have done something that can show that your explanation holds true. You can never do this as scum because the sole reason for fabricating a plausible explanation is because the alternative explanation is scum-driven. Because you didn't show me something that you previously posted which negates my point, you're effectively a few percent more likely to be scum.

I'll examplify: you did negate my point about you lurking by pointing to the specific post times. As such, I effectively had to retract that point in my evaluation of you. If you instead had said "no I wasn't lurking, we lost electricity for a day" (assuming that you didn't post for an entire day), I'd not be able to falsify my hypothesis that you were lurking and, as such, I'd think that it skews your alignment towards scum even though you could easily be speaking the truth.

[buldermar]

I haven't pointed it out before now. Even if it had, it wouldn't make it proven to be genuine and not a fabrication. The same challenge to this response as the last one.

I'd doesn't prove it to be genuine it just makes it far more likely to be so than fabrication. The same answer to this challenge as the last one.

[penguin_alien]

borkjerfkin, why do you assume that Majiffy must be scum because he's still alive after two nights have passed, one of which didn't have a kill? What rules out him being town who drew both the NK and protection Night Two? Or fill in your choice of night actions that resulted in no kill? Sounds like a set-up to me.

[buldermar]

Why then do you think that I hesitated in providing my case?

You cannot be said to be hesitating in providing your case, nor can you be said not to be, because you never had a case in the first place. This is my claim and you have an opportunity to disprove it simply by showing indications of you having a case before "The Wall". This is the only way to refute the idea that your claim of having had a case is fabricated.

[buldermar]

Anyway, our conversation is not leading anywhere because a) there is little you can do now to convince me to interpret the past posts in a different way, b) there is close to no interest in lynching you and, as such, c) I'm not going to vote you when you're not going to get lynched anyway.

This doesn't mean the conversation is useless.

I should have specified: it's not leading anywhere with respect to todays lynch and, in effect, is probably counter-productive to towns win condition. I think it would be a better discussion to take when others are actually attentive to what we're saying, but that's obviously an opinion and I'll respect yours as well.

It may be useful in other regards.

[borkjerfkin]

borkjerfkin, why do you assume that Majiffy must be scum because he's still alive after two nights have passed, one of which didn't have a kill? What rules out him being town who drew both the NK and protection Night Two? Or fill in your choice of night actions that resulted in no kill? Sounds like a set-up to me.

The fuck?

[borkjerfkin]

oh you're referring to something director said and attributing it to me I think?

scum is penguin and majiffy.

penguin because she is lurker central

majiffy because if he was actually threatening to scum he would be dead by now

but im just an idiot who didn't start the boat on Fe or anything. Pirate stop trying, scum have already won this game, it isn't worth saving.

yeah that's not why I think he's scum. Weird KMD behavior, The Fe => Majiffy interaction end of D1, and the fact that he's pushing this 1 on 1 off thing as if its dogma and making lousy retroactive reasoning about it.

And your wagon is going nowhere and this game is stalled as shit.

[Majiffy]

Right well we saw how well that worked in relation to LS/Aether.

You should all be ashamed of voting him.

What, LS? Just because he didn't flip mafia doesn't mean he wasn't scum.

yeah that's not why I think he's scum. Weird KMD behavior

Such as?

The Fe => Majiffy interaction end of D1

By all means, make a case on me that involves more things that have nothing to do with me.

and the fact that he's pushing this 1 on 1 off thing as if its dogma and making lousy retroactive reasoning about it.

What lousy retroactive reasoning?

And your wagon is going nowhere and this game is stalled as shit.

His wagon is going nowhere because he's not scum. Now join me on the uct wagon.

[buldermar]

What, LS? Just because he didn't flip mafia doesn't mean he wasn't scum.

Could you elaborate on this?

[Majiffy]

What, LS? Just because he didn't flip mafia doesn't mean he wasn't scum.

Could you elaborate on this?

I mean the fucker was scummy as shit.

[buldermar]

What, LS? Just because he didn't flip mafia doesn't mean he wasn't scum.

Could you elaborate on this?

I mean the fucker was scummy as shit.

I didn't notice that.

[Majiffy]

Well sorry you're blind.

[pirate mollie]

oh you're referring to something director said and attributing it to me I think?

scum is penguin and majiffy.

penguin because she is lurker central

majiffy because if he was actually threatening to scum he would be dead by now

but im just an idiot who didn't start the boat on Fe or anything. Pirate stop trying, scum have already won this game, it isn't worth saving.

yeah that's not why I think he's scum. Weird KMD behavior, The Fe => Majiffy interaction end of D1, and the fact that he's pushing this 1 on 1 off thing as if its dogma and making lousy retroactive reasoning about it.

And your wagon is going nowhere and this game is stalled as shit

.

no it isn't

[pirate mollie]

I'm scum and I have lost the will to live

fify

[uctriton00]

What, LS? Just because he didn't flip mafia doesn't mean he wasn't scum.

Could you elaborate on this?

I mean the fucker was scummy as shit.

Majiffy why did you leave the game earlier?

[Majiffy]

Majiffy why did you leave the game earlier?

Huh?

I'm scum and I have lost the will to live

fify