The Wire, Season 1 - Final Credits!

[Cerulean]

*in adwd. The traitor was recruitable. Autocorrect

[The Baltimore Sun]

Day 2, Votecount 4

ChannelDeliBird (1) - Plessiezarus
ActionDan (2) - camn, Cerulean
JastonT1981 (1) - sottyrulez
Ser Arthur Dayne (1) - The Mini-Librarian

Not voting (11) :

Benmage, JasonT1981, Ser Arthur Dayne, Safetydance, Zdenek, Deasvail, BT, ActionDan, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird, Kise

• With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.
  
• Deadline is on 22nd of February at 00:30am GMT
  
• Countdown to deadlien: (expired on 2013-02-21 20:30:28)
  
• Benmage is V/la

Looking for an ActionDan replacement.

[Nostredeus]

I'm really not seeing how ActionDan wanting to keep the neighbour secret is scummy; he knew full well we could force him to tell us who was in the neighbourhood to verify his claim at any point. I'll happily wait to see what the replacement/you guys has/have to say but frankly I'm seeing AD as town here. Interested in Camn's case (associative tell with absta) but again I'll see what the replacement has to say about it.

Interested to see some heat on SAD, who it's coming from worries me of course. #1016 is weak sauce and seems to be refuted in the quote SAD quotes but maybe that's just me reading it wrong? #1079 is half a wall of "zdenek is looking bad" with the final sentence of the first paragraph being "but nvm all of that because the claim will sort that out" it just makes the first paragraph largely worthless...

[Plessiezarus]

ChannelDelibird

Another proper hydra post. Basically an update to our previous CDB read. The flips we've got so far have strengthed our scum-read considerably.

Interactions with TGAH

(Not looking at CDB's behaviour towards TGAH, just the other way around, since it seems safe to assume CDB didnt know TGAH was a traitor.)

In 76, TGAH asks DV to explain his vote for CDB: "why is CDB scum?". (DV never does expain why - he immediately unvotes, and the next time he mentions CDB he's talking about him as a town-read.) TGAH doesn't follow up on this question at all, despite the lack of answer. This suggests he didn't care

why

DV was voting CDB, just the fact that DV

was

voting CDB. Once DV stopped voting, he didn't care anymore.

TGAH replies to and agrees with a post of CDB's in 115 ("qft") but otherwise that's almost the last time the slot cares about CDB at all.

TGAH only mentions CDB again in 691:

If Jason was so worried about scum "fitting in" why does he have no comment on CDB's early posting about absta?

Not sure I can see the reason for bringing CDB up here at all (it's not something TGAH ever comes back to as a reason for Jason being scum). But more importantly, if TGAH found CDB's "early posting about absta" suspicious (or at least more suspicious than anything Jason had pointed out), why did he not mention it at the time?

Interactions with absta

CDB votes for absta in 14, apparently seriously, because of absta's 8. As clarified a few posts later:

what I'm not saying is "this is proof that absta is scum". I'm saying "this reason why absta could be scum is a better reason to vote him than it is to leave a random vote on somebody else".

CDB unvotes absta in 114 in order to vote SafetyDance. Never mentions any sort of scum-read on absta again. In fact, other than telling absta to "try harder ... do better" in 283, never mentions absta again in any context.

Absta never responded to CDB's semi-serious vote on him. In fact, absta never mentions CDB or responds to anything CDB says. Ever.

Can definitely see absta and CDB as partners. A little fake-suspicion early on, which absta doesn't care about in the slighest, then they both ignore each other for the rest of the day. Seems pretty typical behaviour for partners.

Other Stuff

As we said yesterday, CDB has some odd reasons for not voting people.

Suggesting in 311 that Jason looks bad ("I'd be very strongly considering a vote on Jason") but that he's not worth considering as a suspect because sotty/Zach are town-reading him just feels ridiculous. It's an excuse not to have a meaningful read on him: if he happens to be scum, then sottyrulez is to blame, if he's town then everybody should have known it all along.

Likewise the way CDB goes from suspecting DV in 311 to deciding he actually sounds town in 501. We don't feel 483 was a particularly town-sounding post at all. It feels like CDB first decided to change reads on DV, and

then

looked for a reason to do so.

Finally, while CDB did vote TGAH, remember that we're working under the assumption the scum didn't know TGAH was a traitor. So any scum joining that wagon would have presumably thought they were joining a mislynch. The only reason CDB gives for suspecting TGAH seems to be that fact TGAH was voting for Jason. And CDB had himself suggested Jason was suspicious and that he would be voting for him if sotty/Zach weren't town-reading him.

This seems like a very weak reason to vote somebody, really, and CDB's "I'm happy to to move onto TGAH, as discussed before" in 931 comes across as CDB being somewhat defensive about joining a wagon he actually assumes is going to be a bad one. The insistence that the TGAH scum read has been "discussed before" reads like a pre-emptive "no, I wasn't just voting him because he was the largest wagon!" excuse.

[Cerulean]

Pless/Zar, I'm pretty much 100% with you guys re: CDB. Tammy and I talked about CDB last night and we both feel pretty strongly that he's a good shot at hitting an absta partner. Aside from everything you guys pointed out, I'd like to emphasize that I found it really weird that absta never responds to CDB's early vote and that CDB never followed up on that in any significant way - it came across as early game distancing to me.

I looked over DV again because I got bad vibes from him last night but there are a couple of things that seem to point against him being partnered up with absta. For example, I think DV would have taken a more firm stance on absta in #706 if they were on a team given his approach in Zar's game and (I believe) La La Land. Also, the appeal to absta in #912 seems weird if directed at a partner, right?

I also don't think absta was bussing SafetyDance in the first half of the day. From what I've seen in his other scum games, he usually tosses some suspicion on his partners but never commits a vote to them or pushes them in any meaningful way.

Also, if TGAH did indeed know who all of their partners were, I'd say Jason and Nostredeus should be exempted from the lynch, too. Roflcopter doesn't bus from memory and I don't think Konowa does either.

Aside from these, I'm still reading Benmage and Librarian as town via their own play.

Dudes I DO NOT want to lynch:

Camn, Plessiezarus, Jason, Nostredeus, SafetyDance, Benmage, Librarian, Zdenek, DV (uneasy about this one though)

[The Mini-Librarian]

Dudes I DO NOT want to lynch: Camn, Plessiezarus, Jason, Nostredeus, SafetyDance, Benmage, Librarian, Zdenek, DV (uneasy about this one though)

I believe it is worth it to note that my list is exactly the same. (except replace myself with Cerulean obvs.)

[Plessiezarus]

There are only a couple ways I could see tgah going after their master that hard: if they didn't know the identity of all the police or if they were actually trying to draw the nightkill because they were recruitable. Iirc in academy the traitor was recruitable. There is the wifom thing I guess.

Can't really imagine a traitor who didn't know the identity of all the police going hard after anybody . Seems too risky for them -- what if they pick on the wrong person? Unless they thought that person was definitely not-police for some reason (because they'd attacked people the traitor knew were police, maybe?) I guess. But TGAH's attack on Jason seems to come about too early for that. (There are better ways to draw a night-kill, too.)

I'm really not seeing how ActionDan wanting to keep the neighbour secret is scummy

It seemed more ... needlessly stubborn than anything else, really. Kind of pointless to do as any alignment. But what do you think about his choice of target?

~ Pless

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Absta's interactions:

Peta's slot is slowly leaning scum b/c 288.

I don't really like how absta repeats the question from 282 to 192. SD might be scum b/c of it b/c I really don't think absta-useless-scum would continue that train of thought if SD was town (as in he wouldn't really give a fuck unless it was a partner? meh).

I really don't like how in 317 he claims to not have read a lot but then just seemed to go and attack SD. Can be busing? Just going with the flow?

Absta apparently changed his stance about peta in 432 to "town" from previously "prob scum" in 288, with no coherent transition.

He then changed his stance AGAIN on peta in 437, with no coherent flow of logic

Pless is prob town from 605. (somewhat weak but ehh don't think that would be directed towards a partner)

(Oh right and 919 and 920 don't read partner-interactions).

Things like 950, 996, and 997 make camn not likely absta-aligned.

(Just realized there might still be an SK Omar)

Yea, will look at peoples' interaction with Absta later.

[Plessiezarus]

Hmm. Kind of like this, you mean?

Sure *shrug*

I really can't control what TGAH said, neither am I going to analyze myself, neither am I really interested in answering these questions seriously. Because... well, have fun trying to appeal it to other people, but I have literally 0 idea of what you're attempting to achieve by questioning me about it

I'll even use one of your smileys to answer back:

No silly, we weren't questioning

you

. We were pointing out to the rest of the thread you look incredibly suspicious.

And you don't need to give up yet

, here are our thoughts on your interactions:

Umm, because he was useless? I didn't really wanna be a dick when he was alive b/c I thought there was the possibilty that he was town and honestly struggling, but now that I know he was scum it was fucked up?

Is that so? The way we're seeing it, to us your "frustration" reads fake and is a lot more consistent with your Dayne play in the Mystery Hall of Fame, where you actively used AtE to try to latch into a town read for the Goons in your team.

Why would you want to yell to flipped scum for being useless if you're town? This does not make any sense in that scenario. A look at yout ISO combined with absta's points at a lot of coaching and some distancing going on.

For somebody who stated concerns on absta's activity in #321 the posts on which you follow on his later contributions do not express any hint of degree of rising suspicion (it doesn't seem like you ever seriously pondered his activity was indicative of his alignment, despite your remarks on your ooc post), #280, #315, #399 and #904 are a lot more likely to come from a buddy that is coaching another into being more active.

In fact, your response to TML's #390

For people on the Safetydance wagon: Why him over Absta? I really feel that Absta is display many of the same signs that Safety is except on a much worse level.

There is always the small hope that Absta will contribute something good though.

Looks like an attempt to take some steam off the scrutiny his way. Which is pretty consistent with your various deflections to answer our #409 question in your following posts.

If we look at absta's thoughts on your slot, he occasionally pretended to suspect you, but managed to list you as a "null" in #514 while he tended to attack people who went after you. This is behavior that fits with how a buddy would act around another that is on a relatively good position. Mild suspicion that is later disregarded, soft defense and posturing are all signs a possible partnership between you two.

Not to mention that your #1072-#1073 are, surprisingly naive as Pless indicated; you were in NY160B and saw the whole DGB 12 hour angry replace out.

~Zar.

[Nostredeus]

I'm really not seeing how ActionDan wanting to keep the neighbour secret is scummy

It seemed more ... needlessly stubborn than anything else, really. Kind of pointless to do as any alignment. But what do you think about his choice of target?

~ Pless

I can see some logic in it, in so far as DV leaned town on TGAH at the end of D1 so TGAH's flip would have allowed AD to tailor his approach in the neighbourhood based on that but I wouldn't give AD credit for thinking like that instead it looks like AD wanted a scum read in the neighbourhood to question.

[Zdenek]

2-shot Modified Rolecop and traitor to the PO-lice

Open question, which is needed for association tells-
Does this mean TGAH was, role-wise, a 'TRAITOR", as in he was unknown to the rest of the police? Or did they all know he was with them?

Theme wise I think the former.... but I am not a good one for setups.

I've seen both sorts of traitors. Flavor says that Bubbles is more likely to be unaware of the others than not, but that sort of argument has pretty limited use.

[The Baltimore Sun]

kuribo replaces ActionDan

[camn]

kuribo- fullclaim now.

[Zdenek]

Vote: CDB

I don't have anything to add to what's been said.

I could also go with Kuribo/ActionDan today - the whining and replacing out gives him a decent chance of being scum.

[kuribo]

Camn I was about to tell you to go fall in a hole but I see where Dan already told deas he had claimed out

Wendell Orlando Blocker, x-shot neighborizer, with my sole neighbor being dead right now.

Anything else, sit on it till I get home and read this crap you people have been derping

[kuribo]

Sole neighbor is deas, not dead. Fucking autocorrect.

[kuribo]

Vote: CDB

I don't have anything to add to what's been said.

I could also go with Kuribo/ActionDan today - the whining and replacing out gives him a decent chance of being scum.

Also this is a proven incorrect statement about replacing out, and I find it hard to believe zdenek actually thinks this.

[The Mini-Librarian]

Yeah, but zd isn't scum unless he's scum with benmage.

(basically read the thread first)

[Cerulean]

Also this is a proven incorrect statement about replacing out, and I find it hard to believe zdenek actually thinks this.

He's also confirmed town unless he's scum with Benmage.

P-Edit: ninja'd by Librarian >_>

[kuribo]

Okay so he's just vomiting derp, gotcha

[DeasVail]

Kuribo!

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Mmk I looked through some people's interactions with Absta. Not much to go on (I didn't really look a lot <___<), but rough tiers anyway so far:

kuribo
Safetydance, ChannelDelibird
The Mini-Librarian, Deasvail, JasonT1981
sottyrulez, BT, Kise
Plessiezarus, camn, Zdenek, Nostredeus
Cerulean, Benmage

[DeasVail]

Oh, by the way, now that Dan has replaced out:

In the QT, after he had asked to replace out in thread, ActionDan made a post saying that because of what I said in the QT, he had come to think I was town (not exact wording, but you get the idea) and that he thought it would've been nice to continue talking, but that he couldn't handle camn and cerulean.

The latter part is possibly from scum, but I think the first part is unnecessary,. REally rushed as I've really got to go now, so more later on other people.

[Plessiezarus]

Dudes I DO NOT want to lynch: Camn, Plessiezarus, Jason, Nostredeus, SafetyDance, Benmage, Librarian, Zdenek, DV (uneasy about this one though)

This list matches up fairly well with our current town-reads (not in this order, obviously, but then this list isn't meant to be ordered, right?).

We'd add you and sottyrulez as town-reads (despite sotty's odd reversal re:Jason today), and wouldn't have TML (who's definitely still null for us) or DV (who

was

null, but has dropped down to weak-scum recently), but otherwise that's it. Can you explain what we're missing in TML's play?

kuribo
Safetydance, ChannelDelibird
The Mini-Librarian, Deasvail, JasonT1981
sottyrulez, BT, Kise
Plessiezarus, camn, Zdenek, Nostredeus
Cerulean, Benmage

How can Zdenek be a weaker town-read than Benmage?

If Zdenek is scum, then Benmage must also be scum, since Benmage would have had to have lied about getting the Friendly Neighbour confirmation. In other words, Zdenek being town is now a necessary precondition for Benmage being town. Logically, it must be at least as likely Zdenek is town as it is that Benmage is town.

~ Pless

[Cerulean]

This list matches up fairly well with our current town-reads (not in this order, obviously, but then this list isn't meant to be ordered, right?).

We'd add you and sottyrulez as town-reads (despite sotty's odd reversal re:Jason today), and wouldn't have TML (who's definitely still null for us) or DV (who

was

null, but has dropped down to weak-scum recently), but otherwise that's it. Can you explain what we're missing in TML's play?

No, it's not meant to be ordered. I'd like to see some more from Zach, especially regarding Jason. And I'm not at all confident in DV.

My townread on Librarian is largely meta based. Compare his town play here and here with his scum play here and I think the difference is pretty big. He's a lot more aggressive, cocky, and tunnely as scum and I'm not seeing that here at all.