Mini 1420: The Beginning Of The End (Game Over)

[JasonWazza]

VOTE COUNT 2.2

[2] q21: Kthxbye, Psyche,
[2] Ztife: Goodmorning, q21,
[2] KthxBye: Jennifer, Ztife,
[1] Jennifer: Slandaar,


Not Voting: Nachomamma8, Kwll, DeathRowKitty,

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2013-02-24 23:57:13)

[Nachomamma8]

joels is obvtown, DRK is cool town, ztife is town, om is town, kthx is town, goodmorning is probably town
(q21, Slandaar, Jennifer)
are the three i like the least

Vote: q21

[Nachomamma8]

3/4 PR out of 7 town alive helps us narrow down things considerably

Scum can fakeclaim but it will be obvious when they do.

really
because massclaims are kind of shitty when we have an SK
since they kind of cut through the PRs pretty easily
and if we have a massclaim then he will have no reason to claim town

[Slandaar]

Why do you think we have an SK?

I love the cognitive dissonance; if it cant be a vig then why would they ever claim vig to begin with?

[q21]

q21, why didn't you vote goodmorning or myself?

GM, Ztife and you. All people I get scummy vibes from but want to read better. My memory of you (old though that is) is that regardless if I vote you or not you'll post enough that I can try to get a read. GM...not sure I'm ever going to be able to read her, her presence on the wagon and process of elimination will have to suffice. Ztife looked the most likely to respond to a pressure vote in a useful way, so here I voted.

Also.

joels is obvtown, DRK is cool town, ztife is town, om is town, kthx is town, goodmorning is probably town
(q21, Slandaar, Jennifer)
are the three i like the least

Vote: q21

How is joels obvtown? I can see a noobtown read, for all that I wouldn't agree with it. And seriously, how do you get a town read of Mr Bad-Om-Vote-Then-Won't-Take-A-Stance-Against-Anyone Ztife? Not to mention your certainty that Om and GM are town. Do you actually find me scummy, or is it just process of elimination?

>.<

We can't lynch kthxbye. Not really. People shouldn't be surprised that he hammered like he did. All the signs were there. He literally announced that he would do this several pages beforehand and barely anything was done about it. We live in a world where shitplay (no offense - but you've admitted already that you're terrible and an asshole) is not the same as scumplay. We live in a world where antitown actions can be explained by more than just alliance - character flaws, hard lives, race/ethnicity (jk).

kthxbye is the prototype of what sort of thing can come out of a world so jaded as this. And we're going to have to live with it. All the way to the end, probably.

***

Q21's posts are awful. It's a subtle shittiness he shelters, but a thin layer of feces coats everything he says. It's really quite disgusting.

Okay, I'm exaggerating. I just really wanted to type that. It just came to me. It's not that serious at all.

His several posts involving a shift to the Elleran wagon (many shifts; helps curtail attribution of responsibility) make me cringe. An explicitly semantic issue, unfounded cognitive dissonance, "buddying"/"jumping". The first, I'll allow, was generally fielded by a few people, but as you go along, it gets dangerously close to complete bullshit. Is this just a few bad cases or scum looking for a way through?

And his other posts are fine.

Leaving his vote on someone he was reading as town is cognitively dissonant - that accusation was perfectly well founded. And its easy to call my points about his buddying to Dannflor bad in hindsight.

***

1. goodmorning is okay. I need more.
2. Kthxbye is town. Probably.

3. Ztife may as well die today.

4. Slandaar is town.
6. Psyche Om is town.
7. Nachomamma8 Rondar nothing of note.
8. DeathRowKitty is okay. There were some awkward moments, but generally a force of goodness.
9. Kwll joelsdaman1 nothing of note.
11. Jennifer is beautiful and wonderful and coool. Stop calling her scum.

13. q21 is annoying.

No strong scumreads. >.>

I thought I would have something stronger, but meh. From the looks of it, we're in good shape, though. If we don't get scum today, we'll almost definitely hit the target tomorrow. So help me, garsh!

Until then, today. Gimme a sec...

Query. Your wording here suggests your strongest scumread (or, at least, the person you'd be happiest to see dead) is Ztife. Why still voting me then?

Agree on Jennifer, though. No one has actually told me why she's scum yet, and I don't see it.

Vote:KThnx

That hammer was shitty as hell without any reason, why aren't we lynching this scum?

Cos we're lynching your scummy ass. But at least you've taken a stance on something, even if it was the easiest stance to take.

[q21]

Also, mass claim... meh. Don't see it helping much, but will go along with it if that's where we go. At the moment I think I'd be going first and I'm okay with that.

[DeathRowKitty]

Massclaiming is awful here:

If we have a vig and he claims, he's confirmed town and dies tonight (this also forces him to take his second and only shot of the game tonight to bring us back to odd numbers). Unless of course we have a doctor who claims and marks himself for death instead. Then our vig can die two nights from now.

If we have a vig and he doesn't claim, then for what reason are we massclaiming? We have 10 players left and 3 vanilla town flips with nothing obvious in the setup to hint at anything except a vig.

If the vig is actually an SK, he simply doesn't claim a killing role and starts rolling through town power roles at night.


Power roles are stronger the longer they stay alive. This massclaim is not happening unless someone has something significantly more solid than let's reveal all our power roles.

---

Vote: Ztife

Kthxbye is very likely town. I'm pretty much dead null on q21. Ztife has done nothing but opportunistically jump on two easy targets with a minimum of explanation. In conclusion: Ztife for president, vote for

Pedro

Ztife

[Nachomamma8]

Why do you think we have an SK?

I love the cognitive dissonance; if it cant be a vig then why would they ever claim vig to begin with?

i don't necessarily think we have an SK
but the possibility exists, and it makes massclaim shitty

the cognitive dissonance you're seeing doesn't actually exist; the "town" on the end wasn't supposed to be there

GM, Ztife and you. All people I get scummy vibes from but want to read better. My memory of you (old though that is) is that regardless if I vote you or not you'll post enough that I can try to get a read. GM...not sure I'm ever going to be able to read her, her presence on the wagon and process of elimination will have to suffice. Ztife looked the most likely to respond to a pressure vote in a useful way, so here I voted.

isn't it a little too late in the game to keep going for pressure votes?

How is joels obvtown? I can see a noobtown read, for all that I wouldn't agree with it. And seriously, how do you get a town read of Mr Bad-Om-Vote-Then-Won't-Take-A-Stance-Against-Anyone Ztife? Not to mention your certainty that Om and GM are town. Do you actually find me scummy, or is it just process of elimination?

no i definitely find you scummy, don't worry about
and your worries about my townreads... if you want to put out better cases on them, then i'll explain my reads on them

[Kthxbye]

Slandaar, goodmorning, q21, Nachomamma8, kthxbye

Not lynching someone in the above group is a mistake, period. Pushing for a lynch of someone that isn't one of these 5 people will be and should be looked at as scummy hence forth. I'm not kidding and the reason should be obvious. It was a mistake by scum targeting people on the wagon of a mislynch and for us to not take advantage of it would be just plain stupid.

[DeathRowKitty]

There are 10 living players. Even if you're 100% sure there's scum in that group of 5 players, it means nothing.

[Kthxbye]

Not even close to true DRK. Wagon analysis and night kills are the only non-speculation info town gets. To not use them is stupid.

[Nachomamma8]

Not even close to true DRK. Wagon analysis and night kills are the only non-speculation info town gets. To not use them is stupid.

lynching off the wagon doesn't mean you're not using them
it just means you're going with a better suspicion off the wagon
you would have done better to spring this "trap" when there was a special reason to lynch on the wagon

[Kthxbye]

Here's why I'm taking this stance. There are 4 people on the wagon out of which there is a near 100% surety that at least 1 is scum (maybe/probably 2). That is a 25% (50% if 2 scum were on it) chance that we hit scum with nobody saying a word. Worst case scenario, we mislynch someone OUT OF THOSE 4. That means there is now a 33.3% (66.6% if 2 scum were on it) chance come D3 of lynching scum without ever saying a word.

If we lynch outside of that group of 4 today, the percentage does not increase like this come D3 but rather stays at 25% (50%). This is assuming that scum doesn't do us a favor and NK one of them that is....

So, as you can see, lynching someone out of the 4 (minus me, I know) is better for town than not. Town PR's can only help this as well.

[DeathRowKitty]

Hey, Kthx, do you think all scum were on the wagon? Because, y'know, if you don't, it means there's at least 1 scum out of 5 people on the wagon and at least 1 scum out of 5 people off the wagon. It's kind of like symmetry, in that it's exactly the same and probabilistically, it doesn't matter one bit whether we lynch on or off the wagon. Whoa. And either way, we could say we were lynching based on the person's position with regards to the wagon.

Whoa

Even if the above wasn't true, the fact that there was a wagon day 1 does not in any way necessitate lynching someone that was on it. I vote scummy people, not someone-in-a-group-of-5-people-out-of-which-I-suspect-there-is-at-least-one-scum.

[Kthxbye]

Fair, but as I said, lynching off the wagon doesn't reduce the suspect pool on it in a mislynch situation. But you're not wrong either. I won't argue this anymore then.

[goodmorning]

I've got nothing new, except for two things. These are quick things. They are opinions. Very valid opinions.
Two quick and very valid opinions:
D2 massclaim with no PR flips is bullshit
cases based solely on VCA are bullshit


This has been a message from your friendly neighborhood facepalmcat.

[Psyche]

Massclaim sounds like fun, but I've learned from experience that fun isn't always a good thing.

Slandaar, goodmorning, q21, Nachomamma8, kthxbye

Not lynching someone in the above group is a mistake, period. Pushing for a lynch of someone that isn't one of these 5 people will be and should be looked at as scummy hence forth. I'm not kidding and the reason should be obvious. It was a mistake by scum targeting people on the wagon of a mislynch and for us to not take advantage of it would be just plain stupid.

We need a case that is stronger than "It's certain that one of these 5 is scum" sorry.

Leaving his vote on someone he was reading as town is cognitively dissonant - that accusation was perfectly well founded. And its easy to call my points about his buddying to Dannflor bad in hindsight.

No. Let me make a detailed post explaining why...no.

[Psyche]

(snip)

PEDIT:
Can we please lynch TheTrollie? I'm actually frustrated in real life with his VI style of play. Now, not only is he flat out refusing to answer my questions, but he's refusing to play as part of a player in this game. Clearly, he doesn't know how to play this game and is just here to troll players like Dannflor and myself.

Two things here. First is how he links himself and thereby his image to one of the games better, townier posters = scum move. Second is the request to lynch trollie which is followed up in his next post with a jump to kthxbye just about out of nowhere, which is, yet again, buddying up to Dannflor.

Seems that its about time for me to be voting Elleran again. Maybe the earlier hints of scumminess weren't so playstyle related afterall.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Elleran

And hindsight just makes this easier, not easy.

First thing here. The idea of a scum deliberately thinking that mentioning a townie's name in association with himself might somehow win townpoints is just silly. As well as the idea that this fits in the category of buddying. Moreover, a study I did on the use of the word "flailing" several months ago suggested that scum disproportionately resort to buzzwords like these in order to push mislynches. Your uncomfortable usage of the phrase here (along with "uncertainty" disclaimer you finished with) makes me think your post could be an example of this.

Second thing here. The request to lynch Trollie was not over scumhood, but was a test of the waters of a policy lynch. It was never commital, and Elleran's decision to switch to kthxbye so soon after the request as a shift from tunneling on Trollie for several posts just confirms that. But you obscure the background of the switch with words like "jump" and by failing to mention that the 'next post' was an addendum to the previous one.

And since when is expression of suspicion towards someone for the first time and voting for that person in that same post something that is scummy?

[Psyche]

Damn, got the order wrong.

Regarding Jennifer

: I still find it odd that Jenn tried to accuse me so hard even though others had dropped out for some time. Because I feel that if Jenn was a scum, she would have gotten off the wagon long before it had lost popularity, but instead she stayed until the very end,

I am actually getting some town read on her now.

[...]

Apparently, this Slandaar vs Om wagon is getting hot.

I'm going to keep my vote on Jenn

until I can get a better read on both Slandaar and Om.

The cognitive dissonance is hurting my brain.

So let's talk cognitive dissonance.

You're suggesting that Elleran should instead just unvote because of her now ambivalent feelings, as she has no other lead, but you explicitly condemned that very behavior by another player (was it previousme?).

Ambivalence, lack of alternatives, following

your own

advice...I just don't see how what Elleran did can be intelligently criticized the way you did.

[Kthxbye]

I like it. Mainly for 2 reasons. One, it's solid. Two, it's one of the 4.

[JasonWazza]

@Mod and all: I will be V/LA starting Wednesday Feb. 13 until Tuesday Feb. 19

I just looked at a calendar and cannot believe mid-February is already upon us... I think the day's deadline will end while I'm on V/LA. I will try to check in on my phone when able, and will be especially mindful as the day draws near, but I wanted to let you know now in case I'm not able to get on.

This is just a note for everyone and this will now be noted on each Vote Count

[kwll]

WOW guyz nice posting...make it hard to catch up.

I have played with slandaar and call it meta and call it bullshit...but he played just about the same way and he was scummy than fuck. Including the damn mass claim.

vote sland

[Psyche]

plz make better post soon

[Slandaar]

lol. I didn't do a massclaim; Nice lie.

fyi: I am lurking to deconfirmation bias certain people before I reassess things.

Massclaim still seems good to me. Let me think on it a bit more.

[JasonWazza]

B U M P, what does that spell?
BUMP