Gay Mafia II: RIDE THE LIGHTNING (Game Over)

[DrippingGoofball]

could, but as he's pretty much provided us our only proactive way of winning (as opposed to praying for cross kills), we're kind of left with no choice.

[raving insanity]So say we'd have some evidence that he

may

be scum, we'd let him live because if he's not he's our only pro-active way of winning so we have no choice....[/raving insanity]

[zoraster]

well yes. because if he's scum, then we need to lynch town in order to win.

[Iecerint]

Right now I think the most likely scenario is DGB-mafia, Zoidberg-SK. I think dram is probably town despite my result because I think he believed he had a real result on Zora at the start of the day + framing zora would be a terrible scum strategy AFAICT. Zoidberg is probably not mafia due to the number of ability usages that would imply (presuming the redirection came from mafia). This leaves DGB as a redirector-mafia and Zoidberg as a fruit-vending SK.

[dramonic]

[paranoia]Could Iecerint-scum have an occasional redirection in his nightly arsenal? Because if there was a consecrated redirector, we'd have seen evidence of it already.[/paranoia]

The only evidence of redirection we have IS that iecerint says I targetted someone I claim to not have targetted. That seems silly to put on the table if he IS the redirector.
Also as mentionned, he's our only hope outside of crosskill shenanigans.

regardless, if he's scum we end up mislynching and hope for crosskill, if he's town he needs to be alive.
Not lynching him is optimal regardless.

[zoraster]

if that's your call, can we lynch zoidberg then, iec? i'd rather do it that way since he's the one I'm more in doubt of than DGB. i know it's been mentioned, but we 100% have mod confirmation that JK on Redirector will result in redirector being blocked?

[Iecerint]

Yep:

Copy
Hide
Bus

Block
Redirect

Protect
Miscellaneous
Kill
Recruit
Inspect

Count minor modifications of the actions listed above the same as the basic action (e.g., randomize would be the same priority as redirect).

For actions which combine two other actions use the first one listed.

Should note that it apparently won't work if Trollie and Zora were actually bus-driven, but that would mean that scum targeted Zora for the kill, which is unlikely, unless they busdrove their own kill, which is zany.

I'm fine with Zoidberg first; the SK is more likely to have some kind of extraneous night-action-mitigation ability, anyway. Lynching the less-certain one makes sense because the WCS is correctly-lynching and then mis-JKing.

[dramonic]

Are you

fine

with, or do you WANT Zoid first.
For reasons I stated earlier, we should lynch DGB before zoid, because she could be either.

[Iecerint]

Are you

fine

with, or do you WANT Zoid first.
For reasons I stated earlier, we should lynch DGB before zoid, because she could be either.

Our goal today should be to find the 2 scum and then lynch the one we are less certain of.

1. If we lynch TOWN, then we pray for a crosskill and lose without it.
2. If we lynch SCUM and I jailkeep *CORRECTLY*, we win.
3. If we lynch SCUM and I jailkeep *WRONG*, town loses (unless Zora is bluffing about being Hated).

In other words, the best lynch-JK order is the opposite of your first instinct. This way, the chance of 3 happening is reduced and the chance of 1 happening is increased. The chance of 2 happening is not affected.

[Iecerint]

Statistically, we are better off with lynching scum + jailkeep, since the chance of that night playing out correctly due purely to chance is 50% (dram v DGB/Zoid), but the chance of the same for a double cross-kill is 25% (Iec v SKscum && Iec v mafiaScum).

All assuming Zora isn't scum and won't be targeted.

I THINK that's right.

[zoraster]

Actually, using our assumptions, it might make more sense to lynch who we think is more likely town, but I wouldn't put it up to that, honestly.

This is the way it goes. For this reason: unless scum think I am lying, we win ASSUMING Iec is town AND gets JK (which is not 100%) AND I'm the hated townie, we have an expected win rate of 66.7%. Here's why:

Scum is 2 out of 3: GDB, Dram, DGB, zoid

Chance of lynching scum now: 66.7%

IF Correct, chance of JKing scum: 50%

EV if correct: 33.3%

If INCORRECT, chance of crosskill:

100%

Total EV: 66.7%

---

Now obviously this is where theory does not meet reality. I prefer to keep the game in town's hands rather than scum. Although theoretically, both scum HAVE to kill the other scum or they lose, therefore they will shoot the most likely scum, that is not actually 100% because people do dumb things. Plus, they may think it's worth risking shooting either you or me on the off chance we're bullshitting (in this case, the scum who shoots the other scum would win while the one who went for the off chance will lose). It's all one big mutually assured destruction scenario.

So because of the unpredictability of scum action, I don't advocate going for the townier one. I'd rather take the 50/50 shot tonight than the theoretical 100% one. But I think we actually sit fairly pretty IF our assumptions are correct.

[Iecerint]

I think you're forgetting about hypo-redirecter-scum (though I had forgotten, too). Assuming it's in play, that's going to decrease the chance of a double crosskill.

[zoraster]

oh right. then we're back to square one. in which case, lynching dgb actually does seem the sensible policy, right? because if dgb is town, then there isn't a redirector, in which case dram and zoid will be free to shoot each other.

I wonder....

Mod: In the hypothetical case of only an SK and a mafia member alive, would it be a draw or who would win? Also, can we get a vote count just 'cuz?

[Sir Elton Hercules John]

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[DrippingGoofball]

Right now I think the most likely scenario is DGB-mafia

You didn't read the game if you even remotely believe this to be a possibility.

[DrippingGoofball]

because if dgb is town, then there isn't a redirector

I'm town.

[DrippingGoofball]

because if dgb is town, then there isn't a redirector, in which case dram and zoid will be free to shoot each other.

HEY.

If you think lynching a townie is the best idea.

WHY NOT LYNCH YOU?

You know you're a townie, right?

And you know you're a

Hated

townie, right?

So if your calculations suggest we need to lynch a townie, you should self vote.

But you won't because you're scum.

[DrippingGoofball]

Further.

We're on Day 7, and I spent 80% of the game on everyone's shit list, and with the scum trying to lynch me.

No one has found me to be targeting anything at night. I'm no redirector.

[zoraster]

The whole point is that scum have scum narrowed down for them, so they shoot each other. lynching me, even if you assume iec is town, means there is only a 44% chance of double cross-kills tonight among the three suspected people. If dram is not scum and there is a redirector, that chance is drastically reduced.

[DrippingGoofball]

Mod: In the hypothetical case of only an SK and a mafia member alive, would it be a draw or who would win? Also, can we get a vote count just 'cuz?

WHO CARES which SCUM FACTION wins????

YOU DO

WHY

[zoraster]

the question isn't whether you were on everyone's shit list. it's whether you were on a tracker/reporter's shit list.

[DrippingGoofball]

The whole point is that scum have scum narrowed down for them, so they shoot each other.

Aren't SKs traditionally BP??????

ZORASTER IS SCUM

PEOPLE

WHY DO YOU NOT SEE THE OBVIOUS

==================

He wants to lynch a townie on the remote chance that there is some sort of redirection - and I'm thinking - maybe, maybe, maybe, MAYBE if there is a redirector, why can't it be zoraster?

[DrippingGoofball]

The crosskill deam is just a fantasy if the SK is BP.

[zoraster]

because that's clearly what I "want" and said:

So because of the unpredictability of scum action, I don't advocate going for the townier one. I'd rather take the 50/50 shot tonight than the theoretical 100% one. But I think we actually sit fairly pretty IF our assumptions are correct.

The SK being potentially being BP is actually a fairly good point, though. Still, in the event we lynch town, it is the only hope.

[DrippingGoofball]

The SK being potentially being BP is actually a fairly good point, though. Still, in the event we lynch town, it is the only hope.

Zorasterscum is still thinking we ought to lynch a townie and hope for crosskills because that's our only hope.

[DrippingGoofball]

For a guy was was hardly present all game, zoraster now seems to pick up the red phone whenever someone posts.