The Wire, Season 1 - Final Credits!

[The Baltimore Sun]

Day 3, Votecount 6

ChannelDeliBird (2) - Benmage, camn

The Mini-Librarian (5) - ChannelDelibird, BT, Nostredeus, Plessiezarus, kuribo

Not voting (6) :

Cerulean, JasonT1981, Zdenek, The Mini-Librarian, Deasvail, Shaft

• With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
  
• Deadline is on 9th of March at 17:15pm GMT
  
• Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2013-03-09 13:15:28)

Looking for a TML replacement. Unless he comes back and takes his spot before I find one, that is.

[ChannelDelibird]

For goodness' sake. Lynchlynchlynch

[ChannelDelibird]

I mean, literally, we caught him and then he stopped posting. We have all seen this before. Stringing this out for eight days longer with a replacement coming in and reading 90 pages only to be lynched anyway and people talking themselves into stupid shit in the interim because that's what happens when you spend too much time on something IS A BAD, UNFUN IDEA.

[Cerulean]

I mean, literally, we caught him and then he stopped posting. We have all seen this before. Stringing this out for eight days longer with a replacement coming in and reading 90 pages only to be lynched anyway and people talking themselves into stupid shit in the interim because that's what happens when you spend too much time on something IS A BAD, UNFUN IDEA.

You seem tense. Would you like a massage?

[ChannelDelibird]

Heh. Combination of it being 2am over here and camn's ridiculous overconfidence in voting me having me annoyed. Aaaaaand relax.

[Nostredeus]

Really a replacement this late in the game with a player at L-2? Baw, fine, let's settle in for the long haul.

[Shaft]

Looking at his recent posts (last one was Monday), I'd say it's a site-wide flake.

[DeasVail]

Kind of waiting for a TML replacement I guess, but I'm afraid I still can't get thoughts up. Sorry

[Plessiezarus]

Where I'm at now is it's really looking like TML and BT will be my major scumreads. Proper reasoning will have to come a bit later though.

I'm glad it took you four days to produce this single line of wisdom:

Kind of waiting for a TML replacement I guess, but I'm afraid I still can't get thoughts up. Sorry

I don't really see why TML not being around affects the totality of your brain process, but thanks for sharing.

~ Zar.

[Plessiezarus]

Don't see any need to rush the day here at all. Talk and discussion and questioning is all good for the town. Everyone going quiet or saying "oh, yeah, great case on TML, Pless!" is less useful. (More flattering, I guess, but not useful.) I'm not sufficiently confident that TML is Police that I'd want to throw away all chance of pushing alternate wagons today. And even if he is Police, having more interactions to go back and look at after he flips can only be good.

I mean, literally, we caught him and then he stopped posting.

Meh. You think he site-flaked (he's in at least two games as a player and modding one game as well) just because he'd started to get a few votes at the start of the day? Really?

(And while obviously I think he's the best bet for remaining Police right now, "caught" seems something of an overstatement. He's hardly more "caught" than you were at the start of day 2 .)

Really a replacement this late in the game with a player at L-2?

Middle of day 3 isn't that late in the game, really? (I'm pretty sure the last Faraday-modded game Zar and I played in had a replacement near the end of day 4, although happily we were already dead by then.)

every game I've been in with TML, he's been easy mislynch fodder. The fact that he doesn't seem concerned about what he should feel is yet another mislynch... I don't like it.

Can you link to (or at least name) some of these games? Interested in seeing how town!TML tends to react to becoming a suspect.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

OK.. there were too many votecounts for me to include them all.. so I picked every 5.
Here is raw data [...]

Rather than picking every 5, why not just include the end of day vote counts? Those are the only ones you actually analyse later. You didn't need to make this post to do that. For that matter, you didn't need to "analyse" the final wagons to tell us you suspected CDB, either ...

Zar and I both think that VCA has its place, but I don't think we've had the right sort of flips yet (traitors aren't useful, and absta was never a serious wagon on day 1). Just seems premature now, and any attempts to force conclusions from the information we have seem contrived.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Tammy

- a quick question for you specifically.

I know Empire had a meta-based town-read on TML on day 2. Did you read the meta stuff and agree with Empire's reasoning? Or was it something you were just willing to trust Empire's judgement on? (Apologies if you actually addressed this earlier, but the iso function is playing up for me and I can't easily find all your posts.)

I ask because this post (emphasis added):

Empire is going to take another look through tml's meta and work on that

and we'll be hashing out the rest of our list this week.

... gave me the impression that Tammy was (still?) delegating the TML meta stuff to Empire. But then most recently Empire said (emphasis added, again):

Tammy and I went over TML's meta again and she thinks it doesn't tell her anything one way or the other

Now it seems that Empire is leaving the job of coming to a conclusion about TML's meta to Tammy? (Otherwise, why stress that "[Tammy] thinks it doesn't tell anything" and not tell us what Empire thinks?).

~ Pless

[ChannelDelibird]

I mean, literally, we caught him and then he stopped posting.

Meh. You think he site-flaked (he's in at least two games as a player and modding one game as well) just because he'd started to get a few votes at the start of the day? Really?

(And while obviously I think he's the best bet for remaining Police right now, "caught" seems something of an overstatement. He's hardly more "caught" than you were at the start of day 2 .)

I wasn't aware that TML was flaking sitewide, although I have definitely found myself falling behind on multiple games before as a result of putting off contribution to one game before. The act of the shamed siteflake is in itself null; it could be motivated by feeling like caught scum here but it could be due to another game or just offsite stuff so I'll leave it.

Eh, caught's an overstatement maybe, though I'm definitely more confident than you are at this point. I also think there's a greater strength of opinion here than there was on me yesterday. We've got a solid majority agreeing in so many words that everything points to TML as scum; we never had such a majority on me. The pledged scumreads on TML outnumber the required lynching number.

Personally, I feel like this day is moving painfully slowly. It's clear that enough people think TML is scum and there's really not an awful lot going on other than people going "er, yeah, I'll reread some stuff later". I've seen towns talk themselves out of scumlynches before because they felt obliged to spend several remaining days of deadline for the sake of it. I don't want that to happen here.

[ChannelDelibird]

The pledged scumreads on TML outnumber the required lynching number.

Disclaimer: I haven't double-checked this. But I'm pretty sure.

[Nostredeus]

Where I'm at:

Sold on a TML lynch with current info, someone needs to provide more info or TML needs to rebut previously given info.

Camn just basically said "Here is a tonne of stuff", also here's a vote that is totally unrelated to the tonne of stuff I just said, I don't like that and want to hear more from camn on that; at the moment it sounds like a really weak attempt to push an alternative mislynch today.

Deasvail can say stuff any time.

If people want to change my mind on the TML wagon the place to look for a different suspect is this lot: Deasvail, Plessiezarus, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, ChannelDeliBird
-I currently have town reads on everyone but TML in that group, scum probably have one in that group, if it isn't TML someone is gunna have to tell me who it actually is and why.


So yeah, I don't think I'm just blindly accepting the case Plessie, I just think the people who need to contribute to keep this game moving aren't and as such there's just a tonne of agreement in here.

[jasonT1981]

Urgh, torn on the issue.... TML is only gone 4 days....

case is solid enough, I would vote but am torn to see if a replacement can catch up. But that could take a mutha fuckin long time.

going to think about this... is it worth the lynch or worth waiting on a replacement to offer insight? or see if TML comes back in mean time.

[camn]

Hey! I am not using VCA to justify my vote.
I did VCA hoping it would turn something up.....but like I SAID, and like you guys have also pointed out- it came up with nothing.
HOWEVER - I didn't know it would come up with nothing until I did it.
And a good VCA requires color coding, analysis over time (for wagon jumping) and a methodical approach. So I do it, and I find nothing. It seems like some of you are arguing I should have then NOT EVEN POSTED IT.... but certainly there is the chance that someone else might see something in the trends that I font, no?

[camn]

Premature submit!

Anyway... my vote is to get some wagoning happenjng, and for the reasons stated BEFORE the VCA...the tell mentioned in my player-by-player.
If that was unclear, I apologize. But it wasn't.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, whatever. In that case I've already countered your "rookie tells". I simply don't understand why you're so confident in them.

[camn]

Also- @Pless
Premature? One can do VCA as many times as one wants. Sorry you think I did it too soon. I hope I didn't waste too much hard drive space? What?

@CDB- are you mad cus you are caught for the wrong reasons?? How adorable

@nos-
Considering alternative lynches is a positive thing for the town. The TML wagon doesn't need my vote... and we all need more varied conversation.

PS..Nos gets town points for this. Scum love it when I color them green.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'd be eagerly looking forward to seeing my eventual flip causing you to re-evaluate some things that you clearly believe to be immutable scumtells, except I am struck by the distinct impression that you will not do so despite being proved wrong. As it is, I can pretty much only shake my head at you now.

Call me back when we're ready to finally lynch TML.

[kuribo]

Can you link to (or at least name) some of these games? Interested in seeing how town!TML tends to react to becoming a suspect.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=22009

Although looking back, I realize now that the game is almost a year old.

He was in Gay Mafia II with me, though I don't recall him ever being strongly suspected, and anyway I died Night 1.


I don't think site-flaking is a significant scumtell. I find it hard to believe he'd flake as a mod just to get out of posting here.

[Nostredeus]

@mod: V/LA for the weekend, will try and stay involved but no promises, my vote will stay where it is since either town save us a replacement or they take a weekend to catch up anyway.

[The Baltimore Sun]

Equinox replaces The Mini-Librarian. Thanks very much!

[Plessiezarus]

kurbio

-- thanks for the link, but ... er.

You said TML had been "easy mislynch fodder" in every game you both played in (and that if he was town he should be stressing out over "yet another mislynch"). I asked you to link me to one of these games so I could see "how TML reacts to becoming a suspect".

In the game you link, TML is town, but he isn't lynched. (In fact, looking at the vote counts, nobody ever casts a vote for him.) This was not the sort of game I had in mind .

~ Pless