The Wire, Season 1 - Final Credits!

[Benmage]

be atot easier if i wasn't on muscle relaxants

Im staring at the oxy right now.

Been busy, irl beatup from rugby mafia tomorrow.

[Shaft]

I like DVs commentary on BT more than I like the Librarian/equinox wagon.

Oh and Kise- gtfo. Only Shaft now.

I will cut you too short to shit, keep fucking with me.

[Shaft]

This is bullshit. Mod prob made all the investigators aligned with the police. I really think DV might be scum

And @Ples I was saying TML faked the flake. I think uf we offered the mod enough monies he could forget Equi came and we could just lynch TML like it was 2 days ago.

[Zdenek]

I reread the first 20 pages. I'm worried that some of this really just paranoia or craziness, but let's talk about it anyway. Once I get through everything, I'll to sort some stuff out, but I figured that I may as well share as I go.

CDB:

Jason votes SAD for overcompensating, CDB asks him if his vote is serious, CDB later explains that his vote on Absta was serious because he saw Absta's petapan vote as possibly scum motivated.

This interaction makes me a bit worried about CDB, he asks Jason if his vote is serious, Jason's post makes it clear that his vote has reasons behind it, so the only obvious motivation for CDB to ask if the vote is serious, is if he's questioning if that is possible so early in the game, but that doesn't make any sense since his vote on Absta was apparently serious.

In 70 CDB further explains his rationale behind his Absta vote - basically that scum try to find jokey reasons to vote people off the bat. The trouble with his analysis is that I think despite sounding reasonable, in practice it's probably irrelevant to player's alignments. Looking back at KGB mafia (a horribly embarrassing experience) where I played with CDB and was town, he voted me for a pretty similar reason, which kind of makes me feel a bit better about him. At least he's using reasoning that's consistent with an older version of his town self.

TGAH questions DV's vote on CDB? If TGAH know CDB is scum, I think they'd be more inclined to not draw attention to a buddy by getting some to explain their reads.

After DV voted for McStab, CDB said that DV looks like scum, which is something that I don't understand.

CDB says that McStab has deviated from what he expected. He doesn't make an accusation at this point, but he's adding heat to the wagon. There's also no comparison with McStab's play as scum or with another town game, so have a hard time seeing CDB as actually thinking that this point was legit.

Jason:

Thinking about the sottyrulez kill kind of makes me think that Jason is town because they seemed fairly likely to protect him, and I have a hard time seeing scum-Jason wanting to kill that. Looking back, it seems like their town read on hoim was wavering, but if they were suspicious, it wasn't severe.

Camn:

I'd probably be a much happier person if I could shake my Camn suspicion, but it's not going anywhere. Her comment at the top of page 3, saying that she doesn't see how that gambit/black people/white people discussion is useful is a bit odd, since Jason makes it clear on the previous page exactly how it is useful.

Here is an exchange involving Camn that has bothered me for a while. In 62 she mentions the possibility of mass-name-claiming. Vifam and Benmage say that scum probably have fake-claims. Then in 84, camn posts Jason's 51 where he's discussing his gambit, and Vifams 63, where he says that scum probably have fake-claims. Vfam's post was in response to her asking about a mass-claim, so comment of, "exactly", following quoting these two posts, seems really weird.

Camn votes Plessiezarus for being scum hiding in drivel. This reasonable. The QT business is a bit strange but that's probably irrelevant.

Camn in 274, I don't think that Plessiezarus was attacking her.

Cerulean:

Cerulean's attack of Shadow for voing benmage in 99 is a bit off. They describe exactly why one might find benmage scummy, but dislike Shadoweh's vote on him. I suppose their point is that Shadoweh was attacking him for the wrong reasons.

Cerulean's suspicion of Camn makes me feel a bit better about them. Other things on page 5 make me think that Cerulean is legitimately scum-hunting.

Cerulean thinks that Benmage is town, which makes sense at this moment considering Benmage's attempt to read Vifam.

Cerulean's about why anyone town reads McStab was oddly timed. It was just after a post by McStab, and they could have commented on that, but didn't, and there weren't many people stating town reads on McStab at the time.

Benmage's 415 and his unwillingness to lynch Absta irks me. The Benmage that I am used to would have been totally down with lynching Absta, possibly even if he had a town read on him, but here make excuses for him.

Baby Spice/Kise:

Baby Spice's take on Vifam seems legit considering the events around Jason's Gambit.

Baby Spice's lack of activity at this point worries me.

I'm not sure where Baby Spice is getting her meta on Vifam from, but this comment about him not spamming as town doesn't make any sense.

Plessiezarus:

I took Plessiezarus a very long time to get into the game. Post 254 is the first thing that starts to make me feel okay about Plessiezarus. From here they look increasingly town.

Vifam/BT:

Vifam votes Nost for wagonning. Actually coming from Vifam this seems a little weird, but then again, I feel the same way about Nost's vote.

TGAH votes Nost for not-Vifaming. I would be rather surprised if they said this about Vifam if they were buddies. It's seems more like the type of thing they would say to buddy with town. I'm really unsure of how good of a not-buddy tell this is.

Benmage:

TGAH attacks benmage and SafetyDance for suspecting SAD. This makes me feel a bit better about benmage.

But then Benmage votes for Plessiezarus while pointing out how Absta is scummy. This could easily point to Benmage and Absta being buddies.

Then on page 7, Benmage is reading Cerulean as town, which I understand.

Benmage appears to be actually trying to read vifam by asking him for meta and looking through it.

Page 12, I like how Benmage is reading Baby Spice.

Page 13, Benmage seems to notice that Absta is full of shit, and sort of calls him out on it, but doesn't really follow through.

Page 14, Benmage make a reads list and has petapan as scum for his comment about not knowing what he was doing. His null read on Baby Spice makes me wonder if he forgot he was feeling better about her. He also seemed to have a town read on Vifam after Vifam provided him with some meta, but Vifam is listed as null. On the one hand, I think these reads make sense, but on the other, I'm not sure that they are supported by Benmage's ISO.

On page 15, I'm having a hard time understanding Benmage vote on Jason, but then Benmage goes back to Peta after Jason points out that Peta voted Jason. On the one hand, this seems quite natural but why Benmage voted Jason in the first place is beyond me.

DeasVail:

DV votes McStab and explains himself. Despite the fact that he is wrong, it's a proactive move.

DV admitting that he's forcing his scum read seems townish, but at the same time the fact that he says that he's forcing stuff seems like a bit of a cop out.


DV's 320 bothers me. He avoids commenting on Absta who has posted just above him by saying that he's only up to the previous page. His comment about thinking that camn seems more relaxed than he'd expect if she was scum, because she hasn't played in a long time doesn't read as genuine.

The Mini-Librarian

197 - third party hunting, casting suspicion in a bunch of places.

I think that it's worth remember tht=at Mini-Lib pushed for an Absta lynch over a safetydance lynch.

Petapan

He explains very little early on, whoch makes him hard to get a read on. On page 9 Petapan defends vifam, and I think that he's probably right.

Peta pushes for safetydance lynch over an Absta lynch.

[jasonT1981]

Back tomorrow, its 2.40am and my bed is calling.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB:

Jason votes SAD for overcompensating, CDB asks him if his vote is serious, CDB later explains that his vote on Absta was serious because he saw Absta's petapan vote as possibly scum motivated.

This interaction makes me a bit worried about CDB, he asks Jason if his vote is serious, Jason's post makes it clear that his vote has reasons behind it, so the only obvious motivation for CDB to ask if the vote is serious, is if he's questioning if that is possible so early in the game, but that doesn't make any sense since his vote on Absta was apparently serious.

I haven't played with SAD before and I didn't know if Jason had either. SAD's roleplaying was IMO null, especially when we didn't know if he'd be carrying it on past the first page, so I wasn't sure whether Jason was joking, like "awww, you're overcompensating, you're such a scamp", or if he genuinely found it scummy. Their interactions were new to me and the point didn't chime with my gut reaction so I thought I should check. I certainly wasn't assuming that serious votes weren't possible at that stage.

After DV voted for McStab, CDB said that DV looks like scum, which is something that I don't understand.

DV is one of a few players I need to reread (which will probably happen tomorrow). I'll try to address this then.

CDB says that McStab has deviated from what he expected. He doesn't make an accusation at this point, but he's adding heat to the wagon. There's also no comparison with McStab's play as scum or with another town game, so have a hard time seeing CDB as actually thinking that this point was legit.

I might try to find some examples from other games (even though I pretty much can't be arsed) of me doing this before, saying "X feels different to before", because I do. I had, in fact, already given a link to my comparison point for McStab in this post because I previously had a townread on him based on my experiences from that game. (I'll repost that game link: this). The fact that I had previously had town vibes off him because of previous experience is why I didn't go all out in voting him at that stage.

[Plessiezarus]

DV do you remember why you voted CDB way back in the game?

I think it was for not liking his semi-serious vote on

UberNinja

. I don't think much of it anymore though.

Er. You mean his semi-serious vote on

absta

right?

I was perfectly fine to hop onto the wagon and see if he made with any of the good stuff. (and no, I don't believe in stating that my vote is for pressure because when you do that, you remove the pressure)

BT, on the other hand, has been fucking ghost mode since the TML wagon started. I don't think the two parts of this sentence are unrelated.

Hmm. OK.

I do think that BT is more likely to be partner to absta than CDB is, given absta's interactions with both. If you're not going to vote for Equinox, then BT is as good a vote as any.

I mean, I don't know why I'm asking you, you're town. But I feel like I can't let that lie.

Is your main reason for thinking Kuribo is town still the fact that ActionDan angrily replaced out at the start of day 2? I'm really not convinced that's at all alignment-indicative.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

So yeah, basically take the SAD wagon

Why are you only looking for scum on the SAD wagon? What makes you think that there has to be scum there?

Combine that with TML interactions /

the unease I get when a townie gets 0 heat all game

/ the legit solid cases on TML today and PoE says it's time to scrap Wall-E.

Please expand on the bolded.

~ Pless

[Zdenek]

2- Actiondan/kuribo is town

This seems like an odd assumption considering that you had a scum read on him before.

[Equinox]

I literally think scum is chilling out and watching town eat itself today, it happens, I get that, but really we could at least lynch scotty and get a decent chunk of information out of it.

I don't think you ever mentioned what information could have been gained from sottyrulez's flip. Now that you have it, what have you learned?

So yeah, basically take the SAD wagon:

Deasvail, Plessiezarus, Zdenek, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird, sottyrulez

Since you're analyzing just the Ser Arthur Dayne wagon, how many scum are you expecting to have tried lynching Ser Arthur Dayne? Don't need a specific number here, just an idea of what you're looking for.

What do you think of the BT wagon that was roughly concurrent with Ser Arthur Dayne's?

Also, this is a bit old, but I'd like you to expand on it anyway:

If Kise gets lynched the flip does provide nice info so if it happens I'll only palm face with one hand.

Kise (6) - The Mini-Librarian, Cerulean, Ser Arthur Dayne, sottyrulez, Benmage, camn

What sort of information would Kise's flip have provided at this point?

[BT]

I do think that BT is more likely to be partner to absta than CDB is, given absta's interactions with both.

What CDB interactions are you talking about?

Is your main reason for thinking Kuribo is town still the fact that ActionDan angrily replaced out at the start of day 2? I'm really not convinced that's at all alignment-indicative.

Guh? Didn't you agree with me that kuribo's gotcha was town way back then?

[The Baltimore Sun]

Day 3, Votecount 10

ChannelDeliBird (2) - Benmage, camn

Equinox (5) - ChannelDelibird, BT, Nostredeus, Plessiezarus, Shaft

BT (2) - kuribo, Deasvail

Not voting (4) :

Cerulean, JasonT1981, Zdenek, Equinox

• With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
  
• Deadline is on 9th of March at 17:15pm GMT
  
• Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2013-03-09 13:15:28)
  
• Nostredeus is V/la

[BT]

Eh, nevermind about that second part, saying "I'm really not convinced" the way you said it made me think you're unsure about him.

[camn]

Zd!
I see my wit was unappreciated.
When Jason brought up his gambit, I thought it was flawed, because there would obviously be fake claims.which is why I called it useless.
Of course... it persisted, so I suggested massclaim as an almost totally tounge-in-cheek one-uppance.
Of Scouse, massclaim is just as flawed as RACE claim.... thus the final explaination.

[Nostredeus]

Why are you only looking for scum on the SAD wagon? What makes you think that there has to be scum there?

I find the wagon which stays stable the longest to be more likely scum motivated, I find that scum does one of two things; 1) Pick a read and go for them, 2) Takes advantage of opportunities to lynch. I find town pick a target and go for them whilst considering other cases and being willing to move their vote a lot, they almost never play opportunistically.

The above makes me suspicious of heavily stable wagons with members who don't make an effort to consider other cases and also compromise voters, SAD's wagon has both.

Please expand on the bolded.

If a player garners no suspicion from other players in the game it worries me, the longer it goes on the more I wonder why; for example I just finished a game where the scum RB took no heat for days, I'm wary of it is what I'm saying.

[Equinox]

The above makes me suspicious of heavily stable wagons with members who don't make an effort to consider other cases and also compromise voters, SAD's wagon has both.

Pretend I'm town for a moment. Do you think there's a difference between what happened with the Ser Arthur Dayne wagon and what's happening with the Equinox wagon?

[BT]

I was going to ask that. I also don't see how SAD's wagon was the stable one -- SAD wasn't looking like an actual lynch until the very end of the day.

[BT]

Equinox, who would you put your vote on right now if you had to?

[Nostredeus]

The difference is that we know SAD's alignment so can make judgements about that wagon in hindsight, as such I'd expect people to make judgements about the makeup of the current wagon if you flipped town, for example I expect a tonne of heat if you do. [Pretending you're town, nope, there is no difference and ->if<- you are then the same reasoning should apply, I'm still happy to find out but I think there's more chat to be had.] (Not ignoring your other stuff by the way just unable to comprehensively post on a phone).

[Equinox]

The difference is that we know SAD's alignment so can make judgements about that wagon in hindsight, as such I'd expect people to make judgements about the makeup of the current wagon if you flipped town, for example I expect a tonne of heat if you do. [Pretending you're town, nope, there is no difference and ->if<- you are then the same reasoning should apply, I'm still happy to find out but I think there's more chat to be had.] (Not ignoring your other stuff by the way just unable to comprehensively post on a phone).

Okay.

Let's say I get lynched right now and flip town:

Equinox (5) - ChannelDelibird, BT, Nostredeus, Plessiezarus, Shaft

Would you expect to find scum in this group? If so, how many and where based on your current knowledge of the game state?

[Equinox]

Equinox, who would you put your vote on right now if you had to?

Ask me again in a few posts. I'm trying to find the answer to this question.

[Plessiezarus]

I do think that BT is more likely to be partner to absta than CDB is, given absta's interactions with both.

What CDB interactions are you talking about?

I'm referring to my analysis of absta's scum meta in 2166 and 2168. Specifically, in all of absta's past scum games he makes a point of directing questions to or otherwise commenting on his partners' posts. He seems to be pretty scrupulous about dong this. In this game he ignored CDB, which I don't think he'd have done if they were partners.

Is your main reason for thinking Kuribo is town still the fact that ActionDan angrily replaced out at the start of day 2? I'm really not convinced that's at all alignment-indicative.

Guh? Didn't you agree with me that kuribo's gotcha was town way back then?

Zar and I each have a weak town-read on kuribo at the moment. Not at all as confident in reading him as town as you seem to be. (I forgot you also commented on the "haha, ActionDan claimed on day 2!!" 'gotcha' though )

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Why are you only looking for scum on the SAD wagon? What makes you think that there has to be scum there?

I find the wagon which stays stable the longest to be more likely scum motivated.

In what sense did the SAD wagon "stay stable the longest"?

The above makes me suspicious of heavily stable wagons with

members who don't make an effort to consider other cases and also compromise voters

, SAD's wagon has both.

Name them?

If a player garners no suspicion from other players in the game it worries me, the longer it goes on the more I wonder why

Are you actually saying that not being suspected much is inherently suspicious? Because that's ... um, not very logical.

~ Pless

[Zdenek]

So, I've made it to page 54 in my read through. I hope to finish mid-next-week but who knows.

I don't have as much stuff to talk about this time, but there are few points. I'm sure that some of them have been raised before.

First of all, there is mounting evidence that Plessiezarus is not Absta aligned. There's Absta's 514 for instance and there are some other posts that SAD pointed out.

Secondly, Shadoweh had Absta as town until death, which mean that if Jason is scum twice his group killed off someone fairly likely to protect him (although, ok, SottyRulez read was wavering, but they weren't reading Jason as scum, and if they were, they would have made it clear).

BT's 559 - I'm not sure that scum-BT calls a vote on a buddy wasted. He'd be more likely to think that the vote was legit.

There are a couple of points about ActionDan that are worth revisiting. The post where he comments that he freaked out when he saw his name in red, when he'd been following the game seems contrived. I also think that scum are more likely to get frustrated and replace out than town. On the other hand, the way that ActionDan counter-claimed me seems quite townie.

DV's defense of CDB reads as quite townie.

A point about TML. At the start of Day 2 he voted SAD. It was essentially out of the blue, and I suppose was shipping Plessiezarus' reasoning. When Kuribo replaced in he gave a reason to think that SAD was town - that SAD calling the setup was too bold to come from him as scum - and TML unvoted promptly. Coupling this with a couple of other things from TML - the Petapan scum hunting, the desire to lynch Absta and at the moment, I'm not really sold on this lynch. I'll have to see what I think by the time I get to the end of the thread though, and see what Equinox does.

Finally, there's Cerulean. Their behavior at the start of Day 2 bothers me. At the end of Day 1, they said that they found Action Dan townie for how he claimed. At the start of Day 2, they were calling Action Dan one of their top suspects. They were also arguing that Action Dan should have been open about who he neihborized because he was saved from a lynch by his claim. Now, Action Dan was under some pressure at the time, but he wasn't at L-1 when he claimed, and it was far from clear that he would have been run up to claim otherwise because there were a lot of people who were suspicious of TGAH. So this line of questioning of Action Dan by Cerulean reads as disingenuous.

.S.: You guys really need to consider Jason as well, especially given the sottyrulez kill).

Why do you think this?

Can you also explain your scum read on Nost, and why you had Benmage on the list of people you've narrowed it down to when he's been a town read of yours all game?

[ChannelDelibird]

I've been skimming today with the intent of doing more tomorrow, as I mentioned this morning, but I wanted to pick up on this quickly:

the desire to lynch Absta

I've discussed how the desire to lynch Absta disappears completely after a certain point. I'd like for you to look back at their interactions more closely if you wouldn't mind.