The Wire, Season 1 - Final Credits!

[Benmage]

Oh and actually with point 2, on why I don't think it's automated was the reference to DGB and scummieswinvintational. If memory serves me correct, I acted uncharacteristic when faced with the self-vote there.

[camn]

What is your point Ben?
I have selfvoted as scum before.

Kuribo gets a townread for WHY he was selfvoting, not the fact that he did.

[The Baltimore Sun]

Day 3, Votecount 21

Equinox (5) - ChannelDelibird, BT, Nostredeus, Plessiezarus, JasonT1981

BT (5) - kuribo, Deasvail, Cerulean, Zdenek, camn

Nostredeus (3) - Equinox, Benmage, Shaft

Not voting (0) :

NO ONE

• With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
  
• Deadline is on 9th of March at 17:15pm GMT
  
• Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2013-03-09 13:15:28)
  
• Deasvail is V/la

[Nostredeus]

I'm really sorry I haven't posted guys, I'm writing the final section of my dissertation and it's being a little shit; I will get a sizable post in within the next few hours since I'm up all night anyway. Until then suffice to say I'm 'Team BT' because who likes vampires anyway, and by vampires I mean Equinox.

[Cerulean]

I'm really sorry I haven't posted guys, I'm writing the final section of my dissertation and it's being a little shit.

Sympathy for Nostredeus.

I'M ALSO WRITING THE FINAL SECTION OF MY DISSERTATION AND IT'S DRIVING ME INSANE.

Yes, that deserved all caps.

[Cerulean]

I honestly don't think Equinox is scum based off now likely ancient meta but I'll go over those when I'm done with this exam.

Hmm. Zar's looked at some Equinox meta and thinks it supports that slot being scum . So we'd be interested to see this. (Preferably before the day ends, if you're going to be back from V/LA by then?)
s

I spent this morning looking through tml's meta again, and again don't think I could learn anything. Empires right as scum he does tend to be aggressive in an angryish way, but he does also bus early and his last posts in this thread are pretty bad. I looked through equinoxes too. I know that empire did some meta research on her when they played in micro 53(?), so I read through that and through the scum games she linked there. She just looks rather similar as both alignments to me. I left him a message asking him to let me know what about her meta seemed more town. I do know told me he was reading her as really town though. Hopefully he'll be able to fill me in on that quickly. He's way better at assessing meta then I am when it's not direct experience and I've only briefly played with equinox and tml.

What about her play seems to fit her scum meta more?

I did bring up to empire her jumping on bt last night after saying she thought he seemed town when she replaced in. I thought that was suspicious. It empire thought was more evidence that she was town.

[Cerulean]

It's Wednesday, isn't it?

jasonT1981, pick a wagon and sit on it. kuribo is not scum, and kuribo is not getting lynched. Be lazy if you want, but you know more about the game state than I do and yet you're managing to do less.

Argh, this is tough my vote on Kuribo would be wasted. Right now, as it stands Mini Lib was higher on the scum scale than BT was (I had BT town) I still feel a bit towards BT-Town

Nost wagon, I don't see going anywhere.

vote: Equenox

So you're paying attention to the game enough to catch when someone addresses you and this is the paltry shit you offer?

[camn]

Yeah. Vigbait, big time.

Jason- with this play you are not living to endgame. Not on my watch.

[Shaft]

And if I had a gun I would be lurkervigging Jason tonight.
Just like that.

Why does no one want to lynch him?

?

Because at this rate it's looking like he's being saved as a lylo mislynch. If you want to get it done, push for it now.

[camn]

Now? Really?

[Plessiezarus]

What about her play seems to fit her scum meta more?

Equinox's tone and approach to the game, mostly. I also looked at Micro 53 along with Open 453 as opposed to Mini 1326, where she replaced into a scum slot. I noticed how she seemed to be somewhat off focus in that game with her thoughts and to be bidding herself some time (which is the impression I got from her entry here). So, I decided to take a look at other games of hers to try to discern if it was only a replacement tell. Despite the comparisons I used are older games, I thought her behavior in both Mini 1030 Mini 1030 (she was Wisteria there) and Mini 1073 was a lot more like her play in 1326 than her most recent town games I linked.

I think it'd be great if Empire could also take a look into these games and or point at which other games he used in his meta research.

~ Zar.

[Nostredeus]

Cool, I have a spare hour, writing up that post I promised you guys now.

[Plessiezarus]

Only have time to make a very quick post today (I'll be in the hospital until late this evening. Joy.). Both BT and TML/Equinox make sense as absta's partners, given absta's scum meta, so I wouldn't be too upset with either of them being lynched today. I think Nost is a somewhat inferior lynch. He was attacked by TGAH, so we'd have to assume TGAH didn't know all the Police, and I'm slightly worried that Nost's wagon analysis is just like his maths -- that is, it's obviously wrong, but also something Nost actually believes in.

I have a sense that more people than just camn are giving Equinox a pass because she's a replacement and because her posts make her seem calmer and more rational than BT or Nost (even if only camn says as much). But that would be a mistake -- the case against TML (in particular the stuff outlined in 2188 ) hasn't gone away just because TML site-flaked. (And there's also the fact TML asked ActionDan for the name of his QT, if we think that theory has any merit). I don't really think being "oily" or being angry and aggressive when in danger of being lynched are scum tells, and as far as I can tell that's the only reason people have to prefer a BT lynch over an Equinox lynch. Zar thought BT was being oily on day 2, which was part of why our reads on him differed, but I think I managed to persuade him that this was more likely just a case of BT's personality rubbing him the wrong way. Actually, Zar now has more of a town-read on BT than I do and thinks his current reactions are very townish (he insists I mention this so one of us can brag to the other later ).

I also don't believe there's much evidence that the SAD wagon won out over the BT wagon because of a push by scum: the key people who switched were CDB, who we have a weak but strengthening town-read on, and sotty, who's already flipped town. So, yeah, Equinox is the better lynch, I think.

~ Pless

[Nostredeus]

Spoiler: Reasons I want Equinox lynched

--No one gave a damn about Equinox.--

Perhaps I'm not grasping the fundamentals of the game but from what I can see scum have an interest in a) not allowing anyone to be tacitly or explicitly be considered town, b) mislynching tonwies, c) discrediting players by making other players suspicious of them.

During day 1 I find most players end up getting numerous votes sent their way, sometimes people get wagon-ed, sometimes they just get questioned. Whatever it is they usually get some heat, a good scum team usually ensures this happens to achieve a, b and c. When that doesn't happen at all for two days it suggests to me one of three explanations: 1) The scum team is bad, 2) They do not want to do a, b or c regarding this player, 3) It is too risky for them to do a, b or c. I do not think 1 or 3 apply; whilst scum have suffered heavy losses it has largely been out of their control, and as Kuribo has already said TML is "mislynch fodder", an easy lynch, and clearly someone who doesn't put up much of a fight (see the start of today). 2 seems to be the most likely explanation, that makes me initially suspicious though not enough to push for a lynch mind you; there needs to be more.

--The D2 wagons--

Regardless of what Kuribo says I am a firm believer that looking at the wagon composition of previous days we can see patterns in the votes of players, I can accept that some of you might disagree and that's fine but it is also something I commonly do and far from a Nostredeus scum-tell.

Yesterday had a series of failed wagons and a successful one, what we can do with these wagons is highlight on them we can eliminate through process of elimination certain players who are regarded as, confirmed as, or flipped town :

ChannelDeliBird (6)

-

Plessiezarus

,

Zdenek

, The Mini-Librarian,

kuribo

, camn, Nostredeus

Kise (6)

- The Mini-Librarian, Cerulean,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

sottyrulez

, Benmage, camn

BT (7)

- Channeldelibird,

Kise

,

sottyrulez

,

kuribo

, Benmage, camn,

Ser Arthur Dayne

Ser Arthur Dayne (9)

- Deasvail,

Plessiezarus

,

Zdenek

, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird,

sottyrulez

, camn


We can then make inferences about the composition of those wagons (note: this is explicitly what camn tried to do, except I'll actually go ahead and make my conclusions related to the data), we can do so in two ways: 1) I could make a subjective call about who I consider to be town and subjectively eliminate them also, or 2) we can see if there are any objective trends across the wagons themselves.

Regarding 1:

First, and I don't intend on detailing why here since the post will be long enough but I have relevant town reads on these people: Myself, CDB, Deasvail, Benmage, Jason, and Cerulean.

This leads me to the subjective conclusion, and yes I do mean subjective you should all do your own subjective analysis based on your own town reads, that:
The CDB wagon potentially has scum in TML/camn.
The Kise wagon potentially has scum in TML/camn.
The BT wagon potentially has scum in camn.
The SAD wagon potentially has scum in TML/camn.

I say potentially because they might just have been in the wrong place at the wrong time or my 'town reads' could be wrong, regardless process of elimination by use of my town reads gets ME, subjectively, to the conclusion that TML and/or camn is scum.

There is an interesting point to note here: The only wagon from yesterday which TML was not on is the BT wagon, if I had a scum read on BT this would simply make me want TML dead more.

Regarding 2:

Instead of looking at subjective analysis we can also consider objective trends in behavior. Yesterday's wagons have a number of members, and EVEN IF, we assume all of my subjective town reads are null there is still a pattern of behavior from TML/camn. The behavior I mean here, to be clear, is that they jump to every available wagon and TML in particular does not do any real work to build a case on the wagons he is on. They are the only two people who can be found on every single wagon; there are of course multiple possible explanations for this. 1) They could just be properly unlucky and in the wrong place at the wrong time every time, 2) One of them could be scum and the other is just unfortunate to be on similar wagons, 3) They could both be scum. I'm totally happy to say 1 might be true, or even that 2 might be true but given these patterns of behavior and the other cases on TML I'm very much happy to see Equinox die.

--Concluding remarks--

Look, I can't be sure of every read I have, it's the nature of the game, but when I combine the above stuff with the stuff I am reading from plessie in particular I feel much more confident that this lynch isn't a total bust. If it does end up being a total bust however then fine, whatever, I'll sheep the crap out of the QT'ers and re-evaluate all of my reads, until then though Equinox is the right lynch. I'm sure I've said other things that I'd like to clarify for you all but I honestly did only have an hour.

That's my hour up, more later if I can.

[ChannelDelibird]

I have a sense that more people than just camn are giving Equinox a pass because she's a replacement and because her posts make her seem calmer and more rational than BT or Nost (even if only camn says as much).

DING DING DING

(And there's also the fact TML asked ActionDan for the name of his QT, if we think that theory has any merit).

Still important.

He was attacked by TGAH, so we'd have to assume TGAH didn't know all the Police, and I'm slightly worried that Nost's wagon analysis is just like his maths -- that is, it's obviously wrong, but also something Nost actually believes in.

:goodposting:

At this point there really isn't much I'm likely to want to add before deadline. Nost is a bad lynch; BT is nowhere near as good a lynch as Equinox.

[Equinox]

Something just occurred to me, so a real quick post.

Unvote

That ends the Nostredeus wagon. Not that it had any hope in the first place, but maybe it's a good thing that it didn't. I can't examine things in detail until I get home, but make sure he's accountable for what he says today because that will be important the next Day.

I'll buckle down this afternoon and read and promise not to screw off, but, for the folks on the Nostredeus wagon, you should switch out, and don't let me be the deciding hammer because we all know how that's going to end.

[ChannelDelibird]

Why the mysterious warning about letting you have the hammer rather than just going ahead and vote BT? That whole post smells of hinting bullshit.

[Nostredeus]

^ Yup.

[Equinox]

Why the mysterious warning about letting you have the hammer rather than just going ahead and vote BT? That whole post smells of hinting bullshit.

I am hinting, but you've got the wrong hint.

Look, say what you want, but I am not going to self-hammer if it comes down to that, and I'd rather not have things go that far.

[Plessiezarus]

Equinox, can you explain your choice of words in regards to Zdenek in this post?

Equinox, are you saying you find Zdenek potentially scummy? If so can you please link me a game with a scum aligned friendly neighbor, I could do with a source or two to see how scum friendly neighbors play and I can't find an example of it happening.

That's not what I said. I'm looking at Zdenek not because I'm suspicious of him -- actually I think he's town -- but because I'm interested in potential reasons for why he is alive, since I am also looking into potential reasons for why scum killed the people they did.

I'll take a look at the rest in a bit, working on something that's due in a couple of hours.

The way I'm reading this post, it seems to imply that you're still have suspicions of his alignment/claim. Can you explain?

~Zar.

[Shaft]

Now? Really?

I wasn't singling you out, but it feels like he's not getting any attention. I'm just wondering what's the deal with a lack of discussion on jason.

I'll buckle down this afternoon and read and promise not to screw off, but, for the folks on the Nostredeus wagon, you should switch out, and don't let me be the deciding hammer because we all know how that's going to end.

I wasn't following you.

[Equinox]

Fuck, I need to stop posting. If you see me here again, tell me to log off, as I'm supposed to be working.

The way I'm reading this post, it seems to imply that you're still have suspicions of his alignment/claim. Can you explain?

I do not. I am wondering if his reads are what's keeping him alive. There's a post somewhere in my iso that explains how I do NK analyses.

I wasn't following you.

Nostredeus is not getting lynched this Day. Move off the Nostredeus wagon, and choose either the BT or Equinox wagon. I won't officially have time for this game until this afternoon, and I would prefer it if the 2 on Nostredeus's wagon right now did not split themselves between those two wagons, as I will not be self-hammering.

But that's just me, etc.

OK, I am gone for reals now.

[ChannelDelibird]

Either you are hinting that BT should not be lynched today, in which case you will have to self-hammer or leaving Nostredeus be was pointless, or that's not what you're hinting in which case there is literally no reason for you not to vote BT at this point.

[Shaft]

Yup yup. But hey, since you left us at 2..



Sup Ben?

[Equinox]

All right, I've got a few minutes to clarify what has been crossing my mind.

I'm not jumping on the counterwagon right away because I lean town on BT for reasons I've already covered, and I haven't had a chance to review BT's play more fully or review the cases that have been put forth against BT. I want to do that. I want to make sure I believe BT is scum because if I still think BT is town after reading, I'm not going to vote BT.

That's all there is.