MINI 1423 Dark Souls: Prepare to die....YOU DIED

[Nachomamma8]

Why aren't one of DDD/VP dead right now if they were so fucking right?

WHY ARE YOU ASSUMING SCUM SHOT JASON

[chkflip]

Jason didn't particularly seem like a primo vig shot to me, did he seem that way to you?

[Nachomamma8]

he didn't seem like a good vig shot, but I could see him getting shot by a vig
scum shooting him would be laughable.

[chkflip]

Perhaps it was some feigned attempt at confirming PV as town? I dunno. Maybe there's a Serial Killer that figured him confirmed town or something.

I didn't really think about it, tbh. I still need my coffee.

[Empking]

Perhaps it was some feigned attempt at confirming PV as town? I dunno. Maybe there's a Serial Killer that figured him confirmed town or something.

I didn't really think about it, tbh. I still need my coffee.

Why would only a SK figure him as confirmed town? And not mafia?

[VP Baltar]

also VPB can you talk about your other reads a little bit?
i feel you are on fire this game but I have no idea what your other scum picks are
i feel good about there being scum in {Iecerint, Empking} and I feel good about HD scum.

would like your help sorting out {RF, DDD, FT} though because while I feel pretty good about them, I'm not as confident as I'd like to be.

Iec is my number two scum pick as of right now. The way he was and kind of still defending PV doesn't seem natural to me. He also got super quiet after PV was initially run up, which was strange considering he had been more vocal earlier on when I was attacking DDD. I think I was pretty clear about that. Number three is more of wildcard though. I think if there are three scum, the third person has been laying back in the bushes on the PV stuff.

I'm fairly certain DDD is town, since he also read PV right for the same reasons I was feeling and didn't waiver on him at all. I think you're probably town too. Empking is still anyone's guess. I always end up going back and forth on him a million times. I"m not certain about RF being town now either, but I remember feeling she was earlier. It's probably just jitters. I need to do some rereading to really narrow down that third slot. HD I could maybe see, but I need to hear the argument for it.

[VP Baltar]

also, discussion about who killed Jason isn't particularly productive, imo. There isn't enough information there to suss out a likely motivation, at least right now. I think more important to look at is PV as scum and his interactions with other players.

[leviathan93]

Okay. i'm confused. how does jason's death lead to the fact that peregrine is scum?

regardless of his play day 1 i mean. which means if you keep that out i don't see how peregrine could be linked to him.

also its obvious why scum went for someone who claimed vanilla town. they needed to kill someone everyone already thought was town. if anyone had doubts that they were scummy then scum would want to keep them alive so they would be lynched and waste a whole day of trying to figure out ACTUAL scum.

[VP Baltar]

No one is saying PV is scum because Jason was NK. That doesn't make sense.

[leviathan93]

exactly my thought. so are you saying that because we don't know about Jason we are back to square one and that square one means Peregrine is scum?

[VP Baltar]

No, I'm saying that scum made a very focused effort to save PV from lynch yesterday. Think about it, if PV is a townie, then why was there so much resistance to his lynch? Wouldn't scum be just as happy to have lynched him yesterday? Anytime you have competing wagons like that, you need to look at the flow of things and whether it was natural resistance to his wagon, or scum resistance. There were obviously townies that didn't want PV lynched yesterday, and that's fine, but without a focused effort to halt his lynch, I think it would have gone through. Does that make sense to you?

[leviathan93]

OK. Yes. that makes sense.

but i'm still curious how you see that SCUM is the one that saved peregrine. couldn't it have been town who saved a person THEY thought was town?

[VP Baltar]

basically, no. If Peregrine was town, scum would have hammered his lynch through then they could have said I was scum today and gotten me lynched. Three votes is a lot in a normal game and can greatly influence the tide of the game.

[RestFermata]

I don't like the SK speculation one bit.

I can see where VP Baltar is coming from about PV. I'd like to examine that. Now, when I do this, I'm going to be counting people that said they would hammer him as well as people who actually placed their votes there.

That means myself, jason, and lev were "on the wagon" in an unofficial sense, although jason voted for PV even after the claim, so he doesn't count. Besides, we know he's town, so we can disregard him anyway.

chkflip and Nacho were the ones who actually took their votes off PV when he claimed VT.

So if VPB's assumption is correct, then PV's supposed scumbuddies are among myself, lev, chkflip, and Nacho. Is that correct?

Now, if I'm to accept this, I'm of course going to take myself out of the list. So that makes lev, chkflip, and Nacho. And lev and Nacho are among my top townreads. I am quite confident in both of them, especially lev. That leaves one scumbuddy that jumped off the wagon and supposedly "derailed" it: chkflip. I just don't see this theory working out from my POV. Not that PV and chkflip couldn't both be scum, but I can't imagine a plausible scenario where this wagon was opportunistically derailed chiefly by scum. Thus I can't look at it as evidence for PV's guilt. I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch him, but we should lynch him or not lynch him based on his scumminess, IMO, not on the way it "looked" that his wagon derailed after his claim. It doesn't add up when I examine it in more detail.

[VP Baltar]

That's a terrible analysis. you don't have to be on a wagon then get off to prevent it from happening. you just have to never vote it.

[Sotty7]

So... What did that giant mushroom make you do?
Not that I care, it's none of my business.
Heh, heh, heh....

1st vote count of Day two

PeregrineV: 4 (Human Destroyer, VP Baltar, Iecerint, Nachomamma8)

Iecerint: 1 (Empking)

Not voting: 6 (leviathan93, PeregrineV, RestFermata, chkflip, Debonair Danny DiPietro, FourTrouble)

With

11

players alive it takes

6

to lynch

It is now Day two. With

11

alive it will take

6

to lynch.

DEADLINE:

(expired on 2013-03-30 07:30:00)

[Iecerint]

Who are the strong players who should have died overnight, Iec?

You or DDD would be the obvious picks -- high gravitas, pushed alternawagon.

Also, I think there's a strong chance that one of the leaders is scum -- there's no other way to justify scum NKing VT when strong, unclaimed players are roving about, especially when there'd be more than one obvious, strong, gravitas player still around.

why do you think scum shot jason?

Occam's razor.

He's at L-2 right now. Iec, why are you voting him if you have such doubts he's scum?

He's not out if the question given Jason's iso, + alternawagon, + sheeping.

[Iecerint]

scum shooting him would be laughable.

Well, that's true, it doesn't make much sense. 'S why I think at least one of the more obvious kills is scum. A separate kill being blocked is also possible, but the prior probability is low.

[VP Baltar]

scum shooting him would be laughable.

Well, that's true, it doesn't make much sense. 'S why I think at least one of the more obvious kills is scum. A separate kill being blocked is also possible, but the prior probability is low.

So just so I'm following this correctly, if PV were town, one of DDD or I is likely scum, correct?

[Iecerint]

One of you is likely scum regardless, unless Jason was not the scum kill.

[VP Baltar]

so you think if PV is scum, one of us was bussing him rather than getting an easy lynch yesterday?

[chkflip]

Don't play dumb, we

all

know you'd have gotten more town points if PV flipped scum by how hard you pushed and how "it didn't read like bussing" to these sheep.

Also, an arrogant scum team might have eliminated Jason just due to the fact that he wouldn't have been an easy lynch target today. And it's one less person against lynching PV today.

Think about it.

[VP Baltar]

I'm not following what you're saying. You seriously think I was faking that scumhunting?

[RestFermata]

It's not a terrible analysis. The main people who would have "derailed" the wagon would have been the people who unvoted him or the people who were willing to hammer saying they no longer supported his lynch.

[VP Baltar]

no