/in-vitational 12: Mafia in #YOLOville - All wrapped up!

[Llamarble]

I went to ISO myself and decide whether I was pleased with my posting quality, and I came across this which is worth mentioning as part of my Konowa case.

I'm not. I also couldn't care less that you think that. Pretty confident in this read.

I generally approve of this sort of behavior, but for some reason this gave me a scumping.
The gratuitousness of the "I couldn't care less" bit probably has something to do with it.

VOTE: Konowa

Konowa's "I couldn't care less" line feels like an attempt to jam a towntell in rather than something worth saying.

[Faraday]

Day 2, Votecount 7

Vi (3) - Benmage, Cogito Ergo Sum, Tammy
Cogito Ergo Sum (3) - Vi, OhGodMyLife, Tierce[
WickedestJr (3) - Shadoweh, Nachomamma8, Konowa
Konowa (2) - Deasvail, Llamarble
Deasvail (1) - Wickedestjr

Not voting (1) :

Empire

• With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
  
• Deadline is on 21st of March at 11:15pm GMT
  
• Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2013-03-21 19:15:44)
  
• Empire and Nachomamma8 are V/la

Prodding Tierce and OhGodMyLife.

[Tierce]

Eep.

I'll try to get something (decent, for once) later tonight. Just came back from part one of caching. Damn, but the desert is hot

in the winter

.

[Wickedestjr]

*Prod dodge*

Yesterday was particularly busy. I may be able to make another post tonight, but, regardless, the things that I promised earlier won't happen until tomorrow or Sunday (probably tomorrow).

[Vi]

Right.

Benmage is tunneling on someone with extra ridiculous piled on, which on some level seems like :benmage:. I don't know if he would be so terribly blatant about it as scum; I know he's willing to do the outrageous as scum but he tends toward bussing so being ludicrously wrong makes him seem less bad. With that said,

In contrast, reading through his play in Heroes of Comedy, he's a lot more aggressive (like, A LOT more, the difference is really significant), and he seemed to spend most of the time he was alive deliberately antagonizing MoI and not really giving a shit about his motivations but trying to discredit him as much as possible.

Please double-check now that you have another data point in re: me, please.

CES is still scum until Empire shows me that not only does CES push one person exclusively as Town, but he also does so with transparently bad reasoning. I'd actually like to ask Tierce about Ponies 2 here, since I certainly didn't keep a copy of that game.

Reading CTD shows me that Llamarble, Empire, N, and maybe Nacho are more likely Town, which is a bit unhelpful. I notice that CTD spent a lot of time arguing with Shadoweh without ever voting her.

The wetfox has been doing bothersome things that have had me waffling about his alignment all game. The whole exchange with and about CTD and massclaims early on looks Town-motivated given the way it happened, but then posts like this happen.

Ooo wait. I actually think the whole thing about 1407 and wanting to post an Empire case might be pretty town. Is there a way of quickly getting Penguin run up?

(...)

but yeah, I'm a bit unsure with the lack of time and everything, but I may actually want to push harder against a N lynch. I don't know what to say though. I think N is less likely scum than I thought before so we should lynch Penguin maybe?

This looks to me like we're dealing with an invertebrate who is putting on a show. I'm not sure if he'd waffle on me so publicly as scum though. I don't know, if I had to put my chips down on green or red I'd call Wetfox Town, but with reservations.

The most striking thing about Empire is his general unwillingness to follow up on his promised wallposts when he's here and what appear to be rolling back-to-back-to-back-to-back V/LAs. On the other hand he's displaying some of the same kind of eagerness Tierce is. This post looks completely out of character for him; the last part of this post looks Town. I really don't feel like assuming someone is Town having a bad day because it seems like a bunch of people fall into that category, but given the last link, there it is. Plus it would be a bad thing if he's scum because I've been shamelessly using his meta and reads as a baseline in lieu of actual effort and attention.

Faraday means wagon analysis. The most interesting wagon of the game is this one right here.

Llamarble (8) - Benmage, Empire, Deasvail, CrashTextDummie, Vi, penguin_alien, Tierce, Cogito Ergo Sum

This is the first L-1 wagon in a large game, four scum expected, maybe three on the wagon. Where are they?

Llamarble (8) - Benmage, Empire, Deasvail,

CrashTextDummie,

Vi, penguin_alien,

Tierce, Cogito Ergo Sum

I will eat Triple D's hat (actually I may just nibble on it) (he won't actually let me do it, mind) (but he'll fully believe I'll try) (and he should!) if there isn't at least one more scum SOMEWHERE in this quote. The obvious choice is CES, but then, "obvious" isn't really getting through to this crowd.

Konowa's first two pages and interactions with Tierce (e.g. 319) look real. Whole time, I was expecting something worse. The one-liner posting doesn't speak well to his credibility, though, and I really dislike this post. I would care more about promised effortposts that never actually come if there weren't like five people doing the same thing to be honest.

I know Llamarble is decent as scum but at this juncture I just don't feel the :effort: required to try to envision his posts coming from scum. The wobbly logic/vote progression he has Today doesn't seem very scumsensical, plus his reads have in hindsight not been bad and also a bit against the grain (see: 579).

N was replaced by OGML. I've said all I'm interested in saying about this slot.

Nacho's posting style in general screams scum because the quote stripes don't actually look like they're going anywhere. Yet I continue to be impressed by how Nacho

didn't

take the low-hanging fruit in 703. I wasn't actually intending to discredit Empire with my reference to the Activity Overview - quite the opposite; I was agreeing with him - but etc. Nacho's interactions with me and CES+Vi (in particular 841) look uniformly bad and leave me somewhat confused as to what to think here.

Shadoweh's opening posts, as mentioned before, look fabricated. Post 50 in particular looks like a failed attempt to contribute reads that are supposed to look legitimate. 462 looks pretty nice in hindsight. Shadoweh's willingness to call CES+Vi Town vs. Town looks interesting but so does the throw-out that she'd lynch me even with a trailing note that I'd like elaboration on.

I honestly don't know how to read Tammy; not before looking through her posts, not after.

Tierce is plying generic Tierce Town Tells, but the rest of her play is weak. I would have much more of an issue with this kind of play when and if she actually decides to start putting forth the :effort: to fake what she knows fully well are her Town tells, which I'm pretty sure is not this game.

After looking at Wickedestjr I found the whole thing completely boring. :/

----

tl;dr

CES is scum; after that, one vote for lease to someone who looks like they know what they're doing and have a lot more capacity for paying attention to this game than I do. I'll trade my initial zombie shambling behind Empire for doing the same with Llamarble. I'm most interested in the Llamarble wagon because that doesn't involve extensive reading, seems very likely to have multiple scum on it, and has a fair number of people who are quite likely to be Town on it for some nice PoE action.

Konowa, humor a self-centered meido. Why have you avoided comment on CES vs. me?

Tammy, since your vote isn't really showing it, who do you want lynched right now?

[Benmage]

Wow Llamarable is so scummy is hurts. We have 1 scum dead... how many scum do we expect in this game?

I can't figure out CES / Vi / Benmage yet and I don't think anyone else has claimed to for strong enough reasons / with sufficient conviction to sway me.
Neither CES nor Vi are pushing on the other with forcefulness / casemaking enough to make me feel they really believe in lynching the other.
I guess that can mean bussing, but both are still playing good games if scum IMO.

I imagine a scum lives in CES / Vi / Benmage

but I'm still not ready to lynch there.
Let's lynch Konowa.

So 1 in 3, with 1 already dead... and you don't wanna play the odds?

I'd lynch all 3 of us.

[Vi]

Speaking partly as a math major, that's actually an

impressively

bad attack on Llamarble. Got anything else on him?

[Konowa]

Whole time. Here I thought it was a MD thing. Let's go!

I know I haven't been into this game since D2 start, and I think that has to do with flips from D1 reads and the fact this new job has me so busy. I don't think one-liners are a non outlier thing for me. I also think recently me being disinterested (really lack of better word), to LLmarble's point, isn't really an alignment tell.

I see stuff i want to respond to. I'll have some time tomorrow or Sunday to try and wrap my head around this mindfuck.

[Shadoweh]

I'm overdue for taking a serious look at this game, which ideally will happen by or before tomorrow night. You in particular can help me along by elaborating on this--

If I were to get involved in this 1 vs 1 that people seem happy to watch I'd be in favor of lynching Vi,

but I really dislike how one-dimensional this is.

I dislike how one-dimensional this -DAY- is. I'm noting my choice out of the two leading wagons that have polarized this day like they were running for President. I heard there aren't third-party candidates in Americalands. This is what I mean, and the fact that both you and CES are going balls to the walls at each other is contributing to it. I'm confused because I believe you're both town, yet the way you're both acting makes me think it's unlikely that two townies decided to get brain damage and ply these on the surface unreasonable cases. It's also in my opinion unlikely that the day would be centered around this debate if you were both town, surely the scum would be shopping around for less high-profile and talkative targets to be blamed for lynching.

tl;dr I think you both sound town but logically one of you is scum and I can't tell the difference so I feel like a slack-jawed yokel.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The obvious solution is to lynch Vi. We get a scum flip to make up for you feeling you like a slack-jawed yokel and I'm sure the next Day won't be as one-dimensional.

Vi's only accusation of note is still that she's being so obvious that it has lead to me being focused on her.

P.S. the scum in that quote is you, Vi. That was a pretty substanceless wagon analysis. Do you even believe in wagon analysis as a general principle?

[Vi]

I'm overdue for taking a serious look at this game, which ideally will happen by or before tomorrow night. You in particular can help me along by elaborating on this--

If I were to get involved in this 1 vs 1 that people seem happy to watch I'd be in favor of lynching Vi,

but I really dislike how one-dimensional this is.

I dislike how one-dimensional this -DAY- is. I'm noting my choice out of the two leading wagons that have polarized this day like they were running for President. I heard there aren't third-party candidates in Americalands. This is what I mean, and the fact that both you and CES are going balls to the walls at each other is contributing to it. I'm confused because I believe you're both town, yet the way you're both acting makes me think it's unlikely that two townies decided to get brain damage and ply these on the surface unreasonable cases.

It's also in my opinion unlikely that the day would be centered around this debate if you were both town, surely the scum would be shopping around for less high-profile and talkative targets to be blamed for lynching.

tl;dr I think you both sound town but logically one of you is scum and I can't tell the difference so I feel like a slack-jawed yokel.

I'm not sure how the bolded makes sense. If there are two Townies polarizing the Day and both are (as you think) giving unreasonable cases on each other, why would the scum

not

push one or the other except for the sake of vociferously objecting and landing on a token third not-gonna-be-lynched party?

In possibly-related news, I'm not joining you on Wickedestjr.

(Also, weren't you saying I was easy to read D1?)

P.S. the scum in that quote is you, Vi. That was a pretty substanceless wagon analysis. Do you even believe in wagon analysis as a general principle?

Um, yes? I've definitely tried to replicate the Scumputer in my own notes on a few occasions (albeit without success). I'm not really sure where to go with substanceless since you drew your own conclusion from it, snide or otherwise.

---

I'll take Tierce, N, and Llamarble as free Town reads. Actually reading Empire 709 he's in the No Doubt list.
Empire vouches for Tammy and DeasVail (862). I'm politely ignoring Empire on Benmage and Nacho, the former more than the latter.

Benmage
Cogito Ergo Sum

DeasVail
Empire

Konowa

Llamarble
OhGodMyLife

Nachomamma8
Shadoweh

Tammy
Tierce
Vi

Wickedestjr

As smug and satisfied as I would feel if Benmage and CES were both scum, I can't help but have reservations. As it is, looking at the game this way I don't think that this game is necessarily as difficult as our power Towners are making it out to be as long as these Town reads hold. Three scum out of six non-strong Town reads (and myself, I suppose, but I've been kind of obvious Town in patches here and there all Day) is actually pretty reasonable.

But wait, there's more! :smug: :notyetsatisfied:

Llamarble (7)

- Benmage,

Empire,

Deasvail,

CrashTextDummie,

Vi,

penguin_alien,

Tierce,

Cogito Ergo Sum

Filling in strong Town reads and flips only. Again, highly unlikely that all the groupscum were off the wagon (with no counter) since it's a major D1 L-1 wagon on a somewhat easy target. Exclude DeasVail if preferred because see above etc.. DO HO HO

And that's why we should be lynching CES Today.

[Vi]

Empire vouches for Tammy (709) and DeasVail (862).

Editing, clarity, etc.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Um, yes? I've definitely tried to replicate the Scumputer in my own notes on a few occasions (albeit without success). I'm not really sure where to go with substanceless since you drew your own conclusion from it, snide or otherwise.

I was just pointing out that even if wagon analysis was meaningful, your argument would still be superboring because it assumes a counterfactual.

[Shadoweh]

I say alot of things >.> (I still think it's true which should tell you how much this situation makes me doubt reality.)
Because scum are subconsciously aware that they are pushing two townies and are unable to keep a straight posting face about it. That really doesn't seem to be happening here, there's a tenseness in the air. At least that's what I think. (I don't really want a Wicked wagon anyways and no one else is interested so okay.)

Also: Can you do wagon analysis that includes more then one wagon I mean you're already using an unflipped person's wagon for proof so..

[Vi]

Because scum are subconsciously aware that they are pushing two townies and are unable to keep a straight posting face about it.

Y... You mean to tell me...

scum don't push mislynches?

Who

do

you want lynched?

Also: Can you do wagon analysis that includes more then one wagon I mean you're already using an unflipped person's wagon for proof so..

Are you saying you suspect Llamarble?

But sure, let's throw out more wagons and see what happens.

penguin_alien (5)

- Konowa, Wickedestjr, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Johhog,

Shadoweh

The initial pengualien wagon for I have no idea why. Given the (AFAICT) utter lack of reasoning behind it and how large it got it's unlikely to be all-Town. Put it down for 1 scum for now, start by lynching CES.

penguin_alien (9)

- Deasvail, Konowa, Shadoweh,

Llamarble,

Wickedestjr, Nachomamma8,

Vi,

Benmage,

Johhog

N (6)

-

Tierce,

CrashTextDummie,

Empire,

penguin_alien,

Tammy, Cogito Ergo Sum

D1's end wagons - N is not included because he was being stupid with his vote but I don't think he's scum anyway. Again, highly doubt that all of the groupscum were on pengualien given that N is probably not scum (though tbh it's not impossible).

Vi (3)

- Benmage, Cogito Ergo Sum, Tammy
Cogito Ergo Sum (4) -

Empire,

Vi,

OhGodMyLife, Tierce

WickedestJr (3) - Shadoweh, Nachomamma8, Konowa
Konowa or DeasVail (3) - Deasvail,

Llamarble,

Wickedestjr

Taken from one of the more recent vote counts Today. Can I get a Kool-Aid style OH YEAH (a Sweet-style OHHH YEAH! is also acceptable) for the all-probTown wagon on CES. Beyond that you can choose your own adventure as to where the scum are; any attempt at a division here would seem arbitrary IMO.

---
@CES: But it can't be that boring because you're responding to it! Clearly the best way for you to show that you really (don't) care about what I have to say is to shut up.

...actually don't do that. You're making yourself fun and personally gratifying to wagon. :justice:

[Shadoweh]

On Llamarble: I don't not-suspect him enough to assume he's already flipped town and I still think its weird how he turned into a Bunny Ears Lawyer on day start. Weird isn't scummy though. I just wanted to point out you were using one early day moment instead of a fairly fruitful day wagonwise.

Yes scum push mislynches, but they tend to flinch and I find it unusual that so many people would JUST go for you/CES. I admit that N wagon looks delicious with the bunchatownreads, but I'd want to go back and see who else was on there just before switching to hammer the other dood. I might actually do that tomorrow. (which is today but the next day doesn't start until you sleep).

[Faraday]

Prodding Tammy

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If you want to talk about tunneling, Vi, have you seen OGML's posts Today?

[Vi]

On Llamarble: I don't not-suspect him enough to assume he's already flipped town and I still think its weird how he turned into a Bunny Ears Lawyer on day start. Weird isn't scummy though. I just wanted to point out you were using one early day moment instead of a fairly fruitful day wagonwise.

Day 1 was terrible wagonwise. Day 2 stands a good chance of being worse (it looks like we're going to be moving to

another

deadline scramble because no one cares about this game). So what did you learn from this bounty of wagons?

Yes scum push mislynches, but they tend to flinch and I find it unusual that so many people would JUST go for you/CES.

I think you're overstating things.

WickedestJr (3) - Shadoweh, Nachomamma8, Konowa
Konowa or DeasVail (3) - Deasvail, Llamarble, Wickedestjr

So you're saying scum is more likely in this group (read: not Benmage/CES/Tammy)?

---

If you want to talk about tunneling, Vi, have you seen OGML's posts Today?

Only accidentally. Reading them again, that's not tunneling.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

OGML was not the one tunneling in that sentence.

[Vi]

While I think about what just happened, how is N's replacement not Very Town?

How is it Very Town?

Either we're going to need to establish that N is a horrible person who is willing to flame you and then hatequit on a game, or etc.

OGML replaced N, next question please. My starbuck$ are on seeing someone else in that slot by the end of D3.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't know why you're assuming he hatequit or why you're even connecting the anti-Tierce nonsense to the replacement. You should be able to see the problem with OGML's posting regardless.

[Llamarble]

I am pretty firmly in camp Vi-is-town at this point due to the recent flurry of good posts and all of the following earlier tough to fake stuff.
I'll reread CES and maybe some others later having made the Vi-is-town decision.

Gah. I need an hydra buddy or something. I feel like so much of this game is going WOOOOOSH over my head and that I don't know how to play alone anymore. I want to gripe about situations and get someone who reads the parts I skim and the possibility of bouncing ideas back and forth and I just

can't

.

I'm too scatterbrained for this right now, but eventually I'll probably appropriate the thread to act out a decent hydra discussion with Empire and/or Vi. It feels really damned awkward not being able to talk with either of them about the game as it is ongoing and I keep looking at AIM and pining for brainstorms we cannot have. Even when I currently have no idea what I

would

discuss, I feel like I need it.

Firebird feels very lonely and needs someone to hold her hand/wing/talon/whatever.

/)
(caveat the first: totes done this as scum before, with VP Baltar as victim)
(caveat the second: you've read more of the game for comprehension than I have)

Now I know I'm trying to cut back on my bitterness output in this game, but where were the last two pages three days ago?

I feel like I should do something, but I don't know what and won't get more time for another few hours.

Penguin-alien's analysis post, while not as awesome-town as Nacho's, was at least 10 times more pro-town than anything N has done over the entire day combined. I see his entire conduct over the last couple of pages, including his refusal to claim, as entirely bereft of any pro town motivation or thinking. He's riding the "too scummy to be scum" angle to the finish line and for some incomprehensible reason, enough people are buying it that penguin-alien looks like today's lynch. Feh.

After having some time to think it over... yes. I was wondering if unvoting and hoping for No Lynch at deadline was a good idea, but if we had to lynch someone, it wouldn't be p_a just for the sake of best-worst-case-scenario. I was probably going to feel like I made the wrong move no matter what, but I think I actually did.

#BUKKIT

VOTE: OhGodMyLife

No. The correct move is--

Johhog -

Town Tracker

was killed Night 1.

...um... hold a moment.

While I think about what just happened, how is N's replacement not Very Town?

CTD as Mafia Traitor means almost definitely four scum.
I'm really not thinking there's an SK and a Traitor in an invitational game, so I want to say Johhog was vigged and CTD was NKd... although that goes into whether Traitors can be recruited and etc.; more importantly I'm just not seeing scum kill Johhog. Which means that CTD looked Town somehow? and more importantly, our Town mascots Tierce and Empire are most likely completely off the mark.

Why is Konowa Town again?

You'd think strong players would fake this stuff more often, but I think it's actually the reverse since strong players don't want to make a move that can bite them and are confident they will do well without stuff like this.
Also it just isn't that common for scum to try and townslip like this.
(I'm assuming scum shot Johhog here, but I think that's a lot more likely than the alternative)

Vi, Tammy, T/S

You've seen a lot more Tammy-scum than I have, and from what I've heard I'm not going to be good at reading her.

With that said, T.

But why though? At this point even empire, who should be good at reading me, didn't feel really comfortable calling me town. Why did you, even with the caveat?

Because I had no reason not to except what I said.

So you're just arguing mild suckitude, is what you're saying? Mafia is a long-term game

And Tomorrow if there's no obvious safe push you just go with whoever winds up with the wagon. It's not that difficult when on a meta level there's no expectation for you to positively contribute.

Calling yourself a pre-existing major wagon is inaccurate and suspicious (also the only way of making what you said make a lick of sense).

News flash: Sometimes I don't make sense and sometimes that's actually not intentional.

You have lost all credibility by tacking "and suspicious" on. You wasted words on

that

feeble attempt to drive home your irrelevant point?

Did I really need to spell out that faking ignorance is a perfectly legitimate play?

Given how much :effort: I've put into this game I think it's an unlikely one.

I gots ta say, though, you're really stroking my ego about my scum game. It's a lot better than what I remember people (and Tammy) saying.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Let's see.

Genuine but obviously independent of alignment.
Genuine but mostly independent of alignment.
Vaguely townish but not that spectacular.
Although I agree with the general principle of strong players not faking town tells, there's not really a question whether she would fake something regarding Johhog - it seems obviously necessary; maybe if no one was paying attention to her.
I don't see why you quoted that last post.

The first two points especially suggest to me that you have no clue of how to read someone like Vi. I don't doubt that Vi can fake her town tone. Just look at her points against me. There's not a hint of analysis to be found in them; it's closer to a rejection of thought. The only times she's managed a point that seemed credible is when she's distorted the truth. Hint: see what's missing from Vi's last few posts.

[Vi]

I don't doubt that Vi can fake her town tone.

This is why we should lynch CES Today.

Also, Llamarble didn't even mention the part that makes me superTown.