Newbie 1345: Mafia in a Bind (Game Over)
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- Mutleyddmc
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Mutleyddmc Mafia Scum
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I went through a lot of this with a hella lot of different thoughts throughout the whole ordeal, so I'll do my best to capture the things that stuck out to me and say what I was thinking there.
Since it's the quotes could flood the page, I'll put it all in a spoiler.
Spoiler:
Tags fixed... belatedly. (Equinox)Last edited by Equinox on Thu May 23, 2013 6:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.- theslimer3
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I went through a lot of this with a hella lot of different thoughts throughout the whole ordeal, so I'll do my best to capture the things that stuck out to me and say what I was thinking there.
Since it's the quotes could flood the page, I'll put it all in a spoiler.
Spoiler:
Please ignore the first post, I accidently pressed send instead of preview e.e
Tags fixed... belatedly. (Equinox)Last edited by Equinox on Fri May 24, 2013 3:40 am, edited 1 time in total.- Xiao Long
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Xiao Long Mafia Scum
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↑ Voodoo Lady wrote:
... :0? I don't know what you're getting at here. How is inviting everyone to sit back and watch you and Mutley devour each other part of your plan?
My thought process was that at least one of the players not involved in the me-mutley-sadille three-way was scum.
↑ Mutleyddmc wrote:This is going slow now. I'm tempted to join MP5 on the didi lynch. As the more I read the post the more it makes sense. I have this feeling though I can't shake and there's nothing to it really but that xiao and mp5 are the mafia.
You continue to be quite sheepish, it seems. You think I'm scum, we've established this. You also think MP5 is scum, but wait, you actually agree with MP5 and think Didi is scum. Would you mind delivering some reads, because all I see is you leaving yourself open to hop on whatever wagon takes off first.
Yeah, all my earlier posts were haiku except for one where I fucked up and went 5-8-5. ;.;
Also, thanks for the post, Slimer. You've gained more town points in my book with that.
As far as everyone else, can we get some activity or something?- Equinox
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- MP5
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Didi wrote:I can see where you're coming from, but you're wrong.
Sorry. You convinced me.
UNVOTE:
Didi wrote:So, I get it that you suspect me, but you're on the wrong track. I'm just a clueless townie.
Oh, undeniably. Irrefutable.
Guys, he said he is town. He must be.
Didi wrote:I was actually expecting to get called out sooner
Hold on ... If you are town, then why would you expect to be called out? We're all working from the same pool of information, if there's nothing to deduce then we'd all be in the same boat and there wouldn't be anything to call you out on.
I don't like haikus
They're terribly annoying
And they suck
Well, not really ... A very cleverly crafted one can win my affection, but not many are.
Yes Muttley, sheep me on didi.
VOTE: Didi- MP5
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- Voodoo Lady
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After rereading his ISO, I've come to the conclusion that Mutley is more likely than not scum.
↑ Mutleyddmc wrote:I obviously wasn't threatened as shown by my 'dry' answers answer that. Just because you want a straight up answer isn't my fault also shown by just common sense why would I be threatened by a first vote? Secondly I called him easily swayed because he did as I said even if it was because he said he would. Hence pointless they could have been answered by anyone or by using your own common sense.
What bothered me about Mutley's early posts wasn't really their content. It was their tone. I don't mean his anger-- his early posts were mostly devoid of anger or rash judgment or whatever you want to say about them now. No, what bothered me about his early posts is that all of them seemed to have some level of sarcasm to them.
Sarcasm isn't necessarily an indicator of scumminess, but it does benefit scum to have their posts worded in a jokey fashion. If you make a post that proves incriminating later on, you can negate it with an Obviously That Was A Joke or something. I didn't really care how you answered the questions I asked, as long as you didn't just try to back out of the statement by saying that it shouldn't have been taken seriously... which you then promptly did.
↑ Mutleyddmc wrote:Why would I claim something though? I would only be helping the mafia by possibly getting town roles out in the open on day 1, how would that help? I'd like to clarify what I mean by not learn anything, I mean nothing can be set it stone day 1. It is only till day 2 that we can possibly try and confirm what we think we learnt or throw it out. I don't mind being the first guy gone. It will hopefully as I say help you learn more for day 2. Ie look more into yours and xegs posts here. (don't think both are mafia) I'm sure when the day ends, 1 mafia will be voting me and 1 won't.
Why would you make a post treating your role as a mystery after you'd already very clearly stated you were vanilla? What kind of townie wouldn't remember what they'd claimed?
↑ Mutleyddmc wrote:Yes there are a lot of ways to play, mine is usually troll day 1 maybe day 2. Then I get good reads by the end of day 2.
Oh I've said I am a vanilla, I'm sure I have. Even if not I've implied it a lot.
Ignoring that you claimed to be implying that you had a power role when it was convenient for you (to accuse Xeg of being opportunistic mafia), anyone who claims during D1 that their playstyle involves only getting serious about the game during D2 is not to be taken seriously.
↑ Mutleyddmc wrote:Pretty sure on of king pin or xiao are mafia. If not both.
VOTE:xiao long
Mainly because he keeps calling everyone a cunt. Whereas at least kingpin is nice.
First part of the quote is interesting for reasons we'll see later. Second part of the quote strikes me as bandwagoning disguised as OMGUS, given the timing-- sheeping Spadille would look suspicious, but voting for someone because they called you a cunt looks like bad play.
↑ Mutleyddmc wrote:I have to agree with xiao. While not impossible i don't think xiao and kingpin are both scum. If they are it would be a bit obvious? However that can also be a ploy, sometimes it's so obvious it can't be true! So they could be playing that angle.
Wait, what? Didn't you say you thought they were both scum in the post I just quoted? And now you're back to saying they aren't. Explain??
Also, I'm pretty sure you of all people shouldn't be using the words "so obvious it can't be true" w/r/t someone's scumminess...
Basically I think the odds of Mutley being scum are still pretty good-- good enough that I'm willing to keep my vote on him. The Didi wagon is interesting but I need to reanalyze his posts before making a decision on it.- Mutleyddmc
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So voodoo you start by saying that I am more than likely not scum. Then say they chances of Mutley being scum are quite good? The reason I say that about kingpin and xiao are because you can never rule anything out in this game. If they were both scum it's as I said in that quote. It seems too obvious, so we are unlikely to look at it. I can use it if I want. And my god the whole I voted for someone cos he called me a cunt is going too far. I used it as a tie breaker not as the only reason.
Xiao the reason I think both you and mp5 could be together was the early attacks of each other. However it was more a passing comment and just a thought as I said rather than any solid evidence so I won't be taking it further for now.
I actually don't like slimers post to me it seems more like fluff covered up in 'analysis'. Lots of already said points and a quote with I forgot my point here?- theslimer3
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- Didi
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↑ MP5 wrote:Didi wrote:I can see where you're coming from, but you're wrong.
Sorry. You convinced me.
UNVOTE:
Didi wrote:So, I get it that you suspect me, but you're on the wrong track. I'm just a clueless townie.
Oh, undeniably. Irrefutable.
Guys, he said he is town. He must be.
Didi wrote:I was actually expecting to get called out sooner
Hold on ... If you are town, then why would you expect to be called out? We're all working from the same pool of information, if there's nothing to deduce then we'd all be in the same boat and there wouldn't be anything to call you out on.
I don't like haikus
They're terribly annoying
And they suck
Well, not really ... A very cleverly crafted one can win my affection, but not many are.
Yes Muttley, sheep me on didi.
VOTE: Didi
I expected to be called out because if I were one of you guys I would have definitely suspected me with the way I've been posting, changing wagons and doing a shit job of applying pressure.
Thing is, I knew that, yet I didn't change my style. Why? Because I don't worry about my posting style because I've got nothing to hide.
Fair enough, nothing will happen if people don't vote. We're about halfway into the dayphase.
VOTE: Xegarus- Xiao Long
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↑ Mutleyddmc wrote:So voodoo you start by saying that I am more than likely not scum.
You misread. She didn't say more likely not scum, she said more likely than not scum. Means she thinks you're scum.
MP5 wrote:I don't like haikus
They're terribly annoying
And they suck
obvscum, lynch nao.
Seriously though, I'm not sure about the Didi wagon. He seems pretty confident in his playstyle - too much so to be considered scum just yet, but it remains to be seen.
The only one I'm fairly certain is scum is Mutley. And the only one I'm fairly certain is town is Voodoo.
All you other fuckers keep changing places in my graph =P
Quote tag fixed. (Equinox)Last edited by Equinox on Fri Mar 22, 2013 6:52 am, edited 1 time in total.- Xiao Long
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I understand Muttley's misread though, it took me two reads to work out exactly what Voodoo was originally saying, and two reads to get the wording of Muttley's reply. Thing is, "more likely than not" and "more than likely not" are so easy to confuse, look so similar to the eye on first glance but complete opposites.
Confident in his playstyle? His "playstyle" is the lack of confidence, which I read as less of a playstyle tell and more of an alignment tell. More tellingly, its when he becomes less confident - he confidently pushes on Muttley's wagon while it's rolling, more confidently tries to push it after it stops for a little bit, but leaves himself an out when he declares "if Mutley isn't mafia though I don't know what to think". The backflip between posts #152 and #187 is incriminating. Not to mention the awful reaction to the fake hammer.
@Didi - jump.- MP5
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I love your questioning on my post 149 voodoo. Mainly because you say I has clearly stated I was vanilla. However all the posts at the time were from xiao and xeg asking for a claim!! It shows ISOing posts can take out context. But also you must have thought I'd claimed vanilla from my ISO. Which is at the time what I thought I had too, hence some of my answers in the next few posts. This is why I love it.- Mutleyddmc
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↑ Xiao Long wrote:↑ Voodoo Lady wrote:
... :0? I don't know what you're getting at here. How is inviting everyone to sit back and watch you and Mutley devour each other part of your plan?
My thought process was that at least one of the players not involved in the me-mutley-sadille three-way was scum
I want to question your thinking here. You did something because it meant you could narrow down 1 in 6 to scum? You should surely be scum hunting by doing things that would increase the probability over just doing a random generator. Getting 1 in 6 is worse than just random generating one of the 9 to lynch.- Xiao Long
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↑ MP5 wrote:I understand Muttley's misread though, it took me two reads to work out exactly what Voodoo was originally saying, and two reads to get the wording of Muttley's reply. Thing is, "more likely than not" and "more than likely not" are so easy to confuse, look so similar to the eye on first glance but complete opposites.
Don't misunderstand me, I'm not lambasting him for his misread, just trying to clear it up.
but leaves himself an out when he declares "if Mutley isn't mafia though I don't know what to think".
That sentence makes sense to me, though. Because Mutley was so scummy that if he ended up flipping town, it would completely throw him off. Honestly, it would throw me off, too. I'd have to review my reads quite a bit. Though, this may just be me rationalising.
↑ Mutleyddmc wrote:↑ Xiao Long wrote:↑ Voodoo Lady wrote:
... :0? I don't know what you're getting at here. How is inviting everyone to sit back and watch you and Mutley devour each other part of your plan?
My thought process was that at least one of the players not involved in the me-mutley-sadille three-way was scum
I want to question your thinking here. You did something because it meant you could narrow down 1 in 6 to scum? You should surely be scum hunting by doing things that would increase the probability over just doing a random generator. Getting 1 in 6 is worse than just random generating one of the 9 to lynch.
How is 1 in 6 worse than 1 in 9? I have a higher percentage of finding scum in a smaller pool.
9 players, 2 of which are scum.
I know I'm not scum, and I'm fairly confident voodoo isn't scum so that leaves 7.
2 of 7 players are scum.
Two of the seven are arguing with me, and of those two, I think one is scum.
The other scum is with the rest of the group who are not in the middle of the argument which is now down to 5 people. I have a 20% chance of randomly guessing scum correctly.
It's easier to look really in-depth into five people than it is to look really in-depth into seven, would you not agree?- Mutleyddmc
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However if you say it's 1 in 5 (sorry I didn't read your post completely. That's still less chance than just asking a random generator and picking one of all of us. If you are going to use a tactic to scum hunt you need to make sure your tactic is increasing the chances of just randomising it. You have not. - Mutleyddmc
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