Open 485: Polygamist Mafia - GAME OVER

[Svenskt Stål]

Just reread the thread from beginning to the point where the mass claim took off.

These interactions stood out now that we know who has claimed to be paired with whom.

IF the scum team consists of KWB, Messiah, TAM and FuDuzn it's interesting that he went ater KWB. Nice misdirection if that is what it is. (I'm not insisting that I have the scum team right. I'm looking for evidence in the interactions to strengthen or weaken that scum team as a hypothesis)

IF the scum team consists of Messiah, FuDuzn, VL and Nekoko, then the FoS on VL while pushing a KWB lynch is interesting, and is a less risky way of getting some negative interaction with a team mate.

KWB voted Messiah in rvs.
Messiah voted KWB after the orc "interesting" debacle
Post 112, Messiah encourages Levi to vote KWB
post 117, Messiah mentions Nekoko as needing to post more and VL as a scum pick.

I"ll be doing ISOs off and on as time allows today.

There was plenty of evidence that Kwick and Orc are a pair based on their posts prior to the mass out.

this is also a very good idea, look at each team and see who they can or cant be maffia with.

[Svenskt Stål]

@levi, I am not sold on any team nor do I want to make a commitment yet, I am saying that when we make a commitment we do it in a structured way that we can gain information from the day after if we fail to lynch scum.

[fferyllt]

Just reread the thread from beginning to the point where the mass claim took off.

These interactions stood out now that we know who has claimed to be paired with whom.

IF the scum team consists of KWB, Messiah, TAM and FuDuzn it's interesting that he went ater KWB. Nice misdirection if that is what it is. (I'm not insisting that I have the scum team right. I'm looking for evidence in the interactions to strengthen or weaken that scum team as a hypothesis)

IF the scum team consists of Messiah, FuDuzn, VL and Nekoko, then the FoS on VL while pushing a KWB lynch is interesting, and is a less risky way of getting some negative interaction with a team mate.

KWB voted Messiah in rvs.
Messiah voted KWB after the orc "interesting" debacle
Post 112, Messiah encourages Levi to vote KWB
post 117, Messiah mentions Nekoko as needing to post more and VL as a scum pick.

I"ll be doing ISOs off and on as time allows today.

There was plenty of evidence that Kwick and Orc are a pair based on their posts prior to the mass out.

this is also a very good idea, look at each team and see who they can or cant be maffia with.

I'd be very careful about the "can't be mafia with" stuff.

[leviathan93]

@levi, I am not sold on any team nor do I want to make a commitment yet, I am saying that when we make a commitment we do it in a structured way that we can gain information from the day after if we fail to lynch scum.

good. thats what is best. =) thats what i assumed the grouping was supposed to do. all work together and put forth a unison vote to hunt out scum.

[fferyllt]

That is reasoning for why they could be a scum pair, is it not?

I know me/Orc are town
I feel that you/ff and Levi/Marangal are town

Therefore, the Nekoko/VL pair has a 66% chance of being scum.

Do you mean 33%?

[TraceyLyn11]

VOTE COUNT 1.8

[L-7] Ms Marangal:

[L-6] The Acting Method: (orcinus_theoriginal)

[L-6] FuDuzn: (Voodoo Lady)

[L-7] Svenskt Stål:

[L-7] Klick:

[L-5] Keybladewielder: (Klick, Messiah)

[L-6] Messiah: (Keybladewielder)

[L-7] leviathan93:

[L-7] Nekoko:

[L-5] orcinus_theoriginal: (FuDuzn, The Acting Method)

[L-7] fferyllt:

[L-6] Voodoo Lady: (Svenskt Stål)

Not Voting:

4 (Ms Marangal, leviathan93, fferyllt, Nekoko)

• With twelve alive, it takes seven to lynch.
  
• Day One's deadline: April 9, 2013 CST or in (expired on 2013-04-09 17:30:00).
  
• V/LA: Keybladewielder ((expired on 2013-03-24 00:00:00))

"If you have knowledge, let others light their candles with it."

-Winston Churchill

[TraceyLyn11]

It was brought to my attention that I have not stated this anywhere: if no consensus for a lynch is reached by deadline, then the person with the most votes on them at the time of deadline will be lynched. If there is a tie, the person who received their most recent vote first will be the one to be lynched.

[fferyllt]

FuDuzn

Votes: Klick (RVS), Ms Marangal (over outing), and orc.

FoSes:

This one is sort of a behavioral FoS/pressure to vote without naming names. I think this referred to Ms Marangal and possibly me:

I don't have to explain how I am going about things, that would give scum an opportunity to adjust. If you don't like how I am going about things then vote me, but I think my strategy is already starting to work.

Faux pressure on orc, but no votes. So I apply real pressure and vote him, and yet still those who applied pressure don't want votes on him. Gee I wonder why.

No interaction with Messiah. No mention at all of Messiah. No mention whatsoever of KBW, TAM, VL or Nekoko.

This looks suspicious.

[fferyllt]

^^ oops.

Missed this post

Basically, I just believe that in a game where scum cannot buss that we can't scum hunt like normal, to easy to be led astray. I feel like direct pressure and reaction(especially secondary and tertiary) tests are the way to go.

For instance, people were all over orc but with no votes. I voted him and votes didn't exactly pile on from the people pressuring him. Seems a bit fishy.

I will say though the votes that have come have recently made me think.

Both Tam's and Nek's votes seem a bit opportunistic, and Nek's town read based does make me scratch my head.

I know I am not scum, but I will admit I don't appear to be overly townie as well.

[fferyllt]

Even with the post I missed, I find FuDuzn's interactions something of a red flag.

[fferyllt]

Adding this to my post about Messiah earlier. Looking at his posts in isolation, I see

Orcinus seems to be behaving in a way that is much more likely to gather the attention and ire of other players than he did in the game I played with him as scum from what I remember, so he can be town for now. I'll go back and check on that sometime to make sure I'm remembering correctly though.

JKM and TAM could be scum

.

Still conspicuously not reading the walls.

Nekoko

totally

needs to post.

VL is probably my second pick for scum at the moment

.

So he fosed/voted 4 players: KBW, TAM, JKM, and VL

One of them (JKM/Svenskt) I know is town. If he's scum, then probably at least one other is town, though it's possible he'd fos his entire team. Seems a weird thing for scum to do though.

[fferyllt]

TAM

I tried to gloss over the argument with Orc and look at other stuff that might be relevant.

Okay, I'm finally here. Interesting so far... This is a game where being mislynched is something to be concerned about...

And if any of you pulls a stupid gambit to "lure out scum" and it involves claiming scum... I WILL end you. And report you for playing against your win condition.

(I believe it was a previous Polygamist game I was in where a townie did what I just described... I'm still upset about that.)

Also why is it that whenever I'm in a lovers game, my partner barely talks to me in the qt.

No scumspects yet but they will show up.

^^ Could be genuine annoyance with KWB. Could be setting up for a lover claim down the road.

I didn't see that she had, I'll get that game soon.


Also, Orc, Please stop discrediting my post of the narrative when I DO have people who made the same interpretation. Call it a gut reaction and interpreting of others posts. Plus having played this game before.

Fact: You have said that you spoke to your partner last night and that you had no idea that you wouldn't get your quick topic during the day?
How did a: That question not come up in the qt? and b: you not think to check and make sure with the mod?
Also, as far as I'm concerned, you could be lying about one or the other of these things, or both.

Fact: Marangal has said she thought you were OMGUSing fferyllt.
Now as you admit it seems a little weak and baseless, HOWEVER, that's why you can use it as an attack on the only person whose willing to question you about it.

Right now Orc, I don't think you are the scummiest player out there, and I'd rather go after a completely silent player... However you are on my radar, and I know how reliable Marangal's reads on me can be.

Also here's the game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=22599

^^ Hedges about Orc a little there. Also, mentions "a completely silent player". I'll have to dig a little to figure out who that could be at that point in the thread, but I'm guessing Messiah or Nekoko.

Also, Orc, Please stop discrediting my post of the narrative when I DO have people who made the same interpretation. Call it a gut reaction and interpreting of others posts. Plus having played this game before.

Show me where anyone else also said that:
"you could be scum pouting about not being able to talk to your buddies in the day"
Go.

That wasn't the part I was referring too. That isn't a part of the "Narrative" either. People HAVE agreed that they thought the vote you made was OMGUS (which brings of the 5 who have commented 3-2, four if you want to include the implications from fud.)

Fact: You have said that you spoke to your partner last night and that you had no idea that you wouldn't get your quick topic during the day?
How did a: That question not come up in the qt? and b: you not think to check and make sure with the mod?
Also, as far as I'm concerned, you could be lying about one or the other of these things, or both.

I don't know, it didn't occur to me at the time????

The fact that you're even trying to use this to get at my alignment is weak as hell.

Fact: Marangal has said she thought you were OMGUSing fferyllt.
Now as you admit it seems a little weak and baseless, HOWEVER, that's why you can use it as an attack on the only person whose willing to question you about it.

What? I don't understand this sentence.

Okay let me boil this down for you.
You have said that the idea of you OMGUSing Fferyllt for saying Interesting is a weak and has no baisis (this whole argument has been basically me arguing the point that, ummm no, it's plausible that could be a scum reaction.) But, being as I am the only person whose actually questioned you fully on your explination... You're using it to attack me.

Right now Orc, I don't think you are the scummiest player out there, and I'd rather go after a completely silent player... However you are on my radar, and I know how reliable Marangal's reads on me can be.

Why don't I rephrase this for you.

"Right now, Orc, I don't really think I want to engage with you because I really don't have a case on you, and my bandwagoning got caught out which makes me sad. I don't really want to engage with you, so I want to put my suspicion on inactive players, who can't question me like you are doing. I think completely silent players look like easy targets. Yeah, I think they're scummy."

This is hilarious, this is hilarious... And let me tell you why?

I want to put my suspicion on inactive players, who can't question me like you are doing. I think completely silent players look like easy targets. Yeah, I think they're scummy.

Please read any game of mine, any game, and show me a game where I do not suggest going after an inactive at some point. Please, and show me if it has ANY connection to my alignment what so ever.

And further more, I'm done arguing with you because you've given me enough. I don't need to get further information out of you at present, and your continued attempts to go after me for questioning you is only proving my hypothesis.

However, I want to hear from the silent ones because they are not easy to read and I would like to get a read off of them.

^^ so here seems to be where Orc's gone from not the scummiest to scummy...but still, those silent ones...

Where's the evidence saying you're telling the truth Orcinus?

Everything else is stretching ramrod.

But this... It makes me laugh... and laugh... and laugh...

Why? Because all we have is your word that you are telling the truth. Which means, I can choose to trust you, or I can choose to suspect you.

I'm sorry we are done. You have nothing further to had without stretching more and more and more.

What you are now claiming is narrative, has a big flaw, I AM GIVING AN EXAMPLE OF A REASON YOU COULD HAVE BEEN FEELING THIS WAY.

Do I need proof that it was your reason? Do I need to have some kind of proof to make an example statement?

Bitch please, you know as well as I that I was giving an example so please, spin your lies with a little bit of sense.

VOTE: Orcinus

^^ Vote. Looks like an irritable snap.

So you guys know, my lover is KBW...

So far I still think that Orc is scummy, I'm going to do an individual ISO to see if I can catch out other possibilities.

^^ And here, ready to do individual ISOs, but nothing about the silent ones.

[fferyllt]

Nekoko makes me wish we had held of longer before mass claiming. I liked this post he made when I first read it.

Hey guys! Here are my thoughts for now

I think FuDuzn is town for not sheeping Klick into immediately thinking Ms Marangal and leviathan93 are confirmed town
and I like how he's the first one to vote orc when a lot of people are suspecting him but not doing anything.

I've read your finished games from this year, and I'm not seeing where you were pushing quicklynches early day 1.

I actually played with him when he was scum and he was telling everyone to take their time on day 1.

I'm still not convinced that MM and leviathan are confirmed town myself.
Klick's reason for first believing that MM was town was based on
"her knowing that the QTs being locked without it ever being explicitly stated anywhere."
because both PMs state that lovers can't PM each other when the game starts.
So perhaps his read on Post #90 is influenced by his belief that MM is town.
At this time I think that MM and leviathan and Kilick and his lover isn't in the same faction.

@Klick

What do you think of orcinus_theoriginal?

@Ms Marangal

Do you find FuDuzn suspicious?

Also I think ff is townie

---

VOTE: orcinus_theoriginal

Currently he's the one that I find the most suspicious.
If he was new to this game, I'd be inclined to think he's a nervous newbie town
but since he played 15 games on site and more than 10 games off site,
I'm more inclined to believe that he's nervous scum.

I'll probably reread orc's posts tomorrow. Got tired when reading his posts
Not really a fan of inserting texts inside the quotes...

he wasn't entirely moving with the herd in this post, such that it was.

I noticed at the time we were discussing mass out - and that went on for a few hours - nearly every time I was in the thread reading, he was also there. At first I wondered if his first post 238 after the outs started read as a little too guileless, but on second read it doesn't come off that way.

Mostly, I just wish there was more here to sift through.

[fferyllt]

Voodoo Lady

The fact that the Marangal/leviathan pair is already obviously town and the fact that Keyblade/VL completely ignored discussion already taking place.

Sorry, I was under the impression that it was still RVS. Why so eager to start the game up?

Pardon if I'm being obtuse here, but is there any reason why we're not all claiming our partners? It's not like you can really lie about who your partner is, and I'm not sure there's any strategic advantage to keeping your partner secret.

Any reason for your suspicions of TAM beyond gut, Ms. M?

^^ the above two posts are less than an hour apart with just a handful of posts between them. Reading in isolation, the 2nd post just seemed to come out of nowhere, and the pardon me part seems a little forced or something. Reading in context didn't improve that for me.

The thing is, with the numbers scum have tremendous advantage in driving lynches. All it takes are 3 town on the wrong bandwagon. I can see why these games often see a run-up close to L-1 and then back down again. According to the wiki, anyway.

I don't see how massclaiming now would change that.

TAM, could you link us to your that Polygamist setup game you played earlier? It would serve a dual purpose-- I can see how you act as town (since I'm already acquainted with your scum meta), and we can get another example of a Polygamist game.

Now that done is done, I'm regretting the additional interactions we could have had with some low volume players before mass claiming. So, maybe I'm being over harsh about suggesting mass claim on page 1.

When scum make incriminating comments, they frequently try to back out of the statement with a comment along the lines of "Obviously that was a joke!" Orcinus is doing this right now w/r/t his vote on Fferyllt sans explanation.

Plus I find your stated reasoning for the vote kind of flimsy... if you wanted to start a conversation with Fferyllt in real time, wouldn't you try to ask her a question or something instead of just voting for her with no explanation?

I personally read Marangal's OMGUS comment as being directed at Fferyllt, TAM.

Nekoko: I would very much like to see you post sometime in the near future!

call out to her partner. good to see this.

Ffer: Orcinus and TAM's interactions sort of remind me of how TAM went after Luisss in our game with him... the whole going after a suspicious player who posts a lot thing. We know how that turned out, of course, but I'm not certain that this isn't a thing town!TAM would do.

Marangal's post strikes me as a bit contrived... did she really need to mention Levi by name in that post?? Couldn't she have just said "Hey, lover: don't get yourself lynched on D1 like you always do" or something to that extent. Would like to see her post more before putting her down as town, because that first post alone is NLS to me.

I don't have to explain how I am going about things, that would give scum an opportunity to adjust. If you don't like how I am going about things then vote me, but I think my strategy is already starting to work.

Faux pressure on orc, but no votes. So I apply real pressure and vote him, and yet still those who applied pressure don't want votes on him. Gee I wonder why.

Faux pressure would certainly be the word to describe no vote and a case consisting of the phrase "you are scum"

.

^^ Who did this?

Rereading Ms M's ISO... that first post is still a bit odd to me, but she's been very active and questioning while not making any scumslips or anything.

Levi on the other hand is a bit more suspicious.

You haven't really explained why you think Fferyllt might be scum, and your argument for TAM being scum is that he seems too town.

But most suspicious of all right now is Fuduzn, whose playstyle is aggressive with zero substance. I think he's the most likely to be scum out of everyone here.

VOTE: Fuduzn

^^ I'd like to know which of Levi's posts prompted the bolded comments.

[fferyllt]

KBW's posts are p much useless for any analysis.

I think I'm done for now. Will iso the remaining folks later.

[Klick]

I actually really like the call-out thing.

[fferyllt]

I actually really like the call-out thing.

VL's? Me too.

[Klick]

VOTE: FuDuzn

I now support this vote the most.

[fferyllt]

I like that vote, too. I want to wait, though, and see what the thoughts are re running up 2 bandwagons for a while. I'm kinda against it. We could lose control of the lynch quite easily, although there would be a world of wrath afterwards,

[Klick]

Unless we're right about both teams, I think splitting wagons will just lead to a D1 mislynch and WIFOM.

[leviathan93]

yeah, so that long wall posts from ferryllt definitely continue to confirm her as town for me. which then definitely means sven is town too. two continued solid town reads.

also i agree with klick about the splitting wagons thing. putting too many people or pairs up for decision makes it a higher probability of mislynching.

Therefore I think lets talk it over and stick with one pair. the most scummiest looking. as a pair and not individually.

[Klick]

@levi: What's the most likely scumteam to you right now?

[leviathan93]

Well, my scummiest looking is Fuduzn, because i don't understand a lot of where he is coming from. it seems not very helpful and something seems off to me.

i'm waiting for him to claim as his last post stated, unless that already happen with his partner, though i don't think i know that at the moment. or it could just be me.

fuduzn just doesn't seem town. but i'm waiting to see from his partner to see if their play is town or not.

[fferyllt]

There is only 1 possible partner left for him.

[Klick]

Via Process of Elimination, FuDuzn and Messiah have to be partners.

I actually think it's obviously FuDuzn-Messiah-TAM-KBW at this point.