Open 480 - C9++ Game Over!

[pieceofpecanpie]

There's a lot more to say than that.

For a start you can explain where you're town read is coming from.

[implosion]

I don't think he's the kind of player who would change his claim as scum.

[pieceofpecanpie]

How can you even purport that to be factual?

If there's one alignment that are looking to fakeclaim, it's scum. Also, if there's one alignment who shouldn't have to fakeclaim or claim twice, it's town.

If he completely derped then that's just wonderful, another valued member of the town team doing little, saying little and that clueless about this game they don't even know where they're at.

I consider the claim a WIFOM situation, so I'm not sure how you're able to draw a conclusion one way or the other.

How does the rest of HD's play read to you?

[Cheery Dog]

His claim unless we're facing a two-man team of ns and hd does mean scum have a roleblocker, but that's the only thing that baas changed for me.
it does add slightly to the hd = sk theory that was here last week though.

Going with mr bring right that beli and hd are scum, my reads say the third is somewhere is edo, ns. Thurthame and susan.

[pieceofpecanpie]

On a different note, is Edo still in this game?

Thurhame replaced Zaicon yeah? So Edo has been awol for over a week?

@Mod

What's going on with Edosurist?

Missed that he hasn't posted in so long with the other replacement stuff, he's prodded now

[implosion]

How can you even purport that to be factual?

If there's one alignment that are looking to fakeclaim, it's scum. Also, if there's one alignment who shouldn't have to fakeclaim or claim twice, it's town.

If he completely derped then that's just wonderful, another valued member of the town team doing little, saying little and that clueless about this game they don't even know where they're at.

I consider the claim a WIFOM situation, so I'm not sure how you're able to draw a conclusion one way or the other.

How does the rest of HD's play read to you?

It is, in a way, a wifom situation. Wifom situations aren't unreadable, though. In essence, there are two possibilities: either town-HD forgot his role genuinely, or scum-HD deliberately fakeclaimed a role thinking that it would give him towncred. Both are very improbable situations: townies rarely forget their roles, and it is highly unlikely that scum would see it as beneficial to retract a claim they've already made. My intuition says the first is more likely.

I've said a couple of times that (aside from his claim) i have a weak townread on HD. See here for why.

[implosion]

Incidentally hd's role is possibly confirmable...

HD, did you shoot last night? Why/who or why not?

[Human Destroyer]

Incidentally hd's role is possibly confirmable...

HD, did you shoot last night? Why/who or why not?

How could I have shot if I forgot my role?

[Human Destroyer]

It doesn't fit with what he told me when I asked how he remembered all the roles from his mass of ongoings.

I told you how I remember my alignment, not my actual role.

[Thurhame]

His claim unless we're facing a two-man team of ns and hd does mean scum have a roleblocker, but that's the only thing that baas changed for me.
it does add slightly to the hd = sk theory that was here last week though.

Going with mr bring right that beli and hd are scum, my reads say the third is somewhere is edo, ns. Thurthame and susan.

Cub being Mason practically confirms there are 3 Mafia, not 2 (99.9%).

[Human Destroyer]

His claim unless we're facing a two-man team of ns and hd does mean scum have a roleblocker, but that's the only thing that baas changed for me.
it does add slightly to the hd = sk theory that was here last week though.

Going with mr bring right that beli and hd are scum, my reads say the third is somewhere is edo, ns. Thurthame and susan.

Cub being Mason practically confirms there are 3 Mafia, not 2 (99.9%).

Well, no.

But with my and NS's claims added on (assuming they're both true, which mine is), 3 Mafia is confirmed.

[Cheery Dog]

It doesn't fit with what he told me when I asked how he remembered all the roles from his mass of ongoings.

I told you how I remember my alignment, not my actual role.

You said when you actually check them, I don't see your double claim as fitting with that.
But it doen't changethe fact I was scumreaqding you beforehand either and those beliefs haven't been invalidated in my opinion.

[Thurhame]

His claim unless we're facing a two-man team of ns and hd does mean scum have a roleblocker, but that's the only thing that baas changed for me.
it does add slightly to the hd = sk theory that was here last week though.

Going with mr bring right that beli and hd are scum, my reads say the third is somewhere is edo, ns. Thurthame and susan.

Cub being Mason practically confirms there are 3 Mafia, not 2 (99.9%).

Well, no.

But with my and NS's claims added on (assuming they're both true, which mine is), 3 Mafia is confirmed.

Oops, you're right, it's only about 96%.

[Thurhame]

P.S. Who's Susan?

[Thurhame]

Also, who's mr?

[Thurhame]

This is the final day of the deadline, people! We need to get a lynch in! Vote

Belisarius

!

[Cheery Dog]

Also, who's mr?

phone error.
That's meant to be me.

Did you not get up to reading the whole thread yet? I guess not, POPP told us to call him Susan.

[Human Destroyer]

It doesn't fit with what he told me when I asked how he remembered all the roles from his mass of ongoings.

I told you how I remember my alignment, not my actual role.

You said when you actually check them, I don't see your double claim as fitting with that.
But it doen't changethe fact I was scumreaqding you beforehand either and those beliefs haven't been invalidated in my opinion.

*shrug*

If I had checked my Role PM

I obviously wouldn't have said VT

>.<

[pieceofpecanpie]

POPP told us to call him Susan.

Only if it makes you happy.

Sooo, let me take a brief moment to assess these claims and whatnot. I just want to theory craft a little.

I'll just UNVOTE: Human Destroyer for a sec, lest someone do something funny.

[SafetyDance]

Oh great, well we're all town PR roles and so are our wives. Claim: Tree Stump. I can come out with such witty sayings as "Take a leaf out of my book", "You're barking up the wrong tree" and "Well that's me stumped."

Meh on the VT/Vig thing. I suppose we'll find out. Btw HD, GUESS WHICH ALIGNMENT LIKES CLAIMING AS VIG?

Going back to NS since it must mean we do have a PR, as CD suggested scum must have a RB and I now agree with Imp's explanation that we may as well lynch him because he hasn't been a town read nor has he bothered to do anything all day. Even if town it eliminates the wifom, which would be more productive than any post he's made. Backup lynch on Edorist if I have to.

May not get on again over Easter (V/LA for Monday) but will try and check in before the day is over if I can to change vote if needed. Enjoy your chocolates everyone.

Vote: NobodySpecial

[SafetyDance]

This was the whole Susan thing:

"you can call me Susan if it makes you happy".

You should

not

have said that.

[Thurhame]

I guess that's a lot easier than those multi-P acronyms. Susan it is.

[Thurhame]

Meh on the VT/Vig thing. I suppose we'll find out. Btw HD, GUESS WHICH ALIGNMENT LIKES CLAIMING AS VIG?

So you're saying he's SK? I think goodmorning said something similar in 511. I don't really buy it though; his switch comes across as an honest mistake.

[pieceofpecanpie]

@implosion

Yeah, I'd read your #691 along with other posts of yours relating to HD. It's just he hadn't been your topic of conversation for a while, so I thought the sudden

"urghhh don't vote, he's town"

post was a bit out of the blue. I've made a note of that for later, but for now I'm actually coming around to what you said in your #691.

And there must be something about going away and coming back to look over things, because this:

It is, in a way, a wifom situation. Wifom situations aren't unreadable, though. In essence, there are two possibilities: either town-HD forgot his role genuinely, or scum-HD deliberately fakeclaimed a role thinking that it would give him towncred. Both are very improbable situations: townies rarely forget their roles, and it is highly unlikely that scum would see it as beneficial to retract a claim they've already made. My intuition says the first is more likely.

Seems like good intuition. Either HD has played a gambit bordering on genius to create such confusion in the hope of unvotes, or he's just derped pretty hard.

@everyone

So let's run by a little bit of light theory. With two PR claims on top of the 2 masons we seem to be more than likely sitting on 3 scum, although that balance could be thrown out if NS' claim is false. I'm not certain of his claim and I know he's got zero credibility, but I'd like to give him life at least until tomorrow.

Why is that?

you may ask, well here's the brief version:

• - With a 3-man scum team they have extremely strong manipulative potential
  - With a large group of players being flakey, lurking or just plain neglectful and considering that at least some of those players are town then town has been at a disadvantage all day when it comes to setting up wagons (note the split wagon syndrome we've suffered)
  - Combine those two elements and scum aren't exactly feeling the pressure, so I find it more likely that they mislead wagons forming on good targets instead of getting into situations where they would immediately want to claim PRs
  - I've seen little support for NS from anyone (this goes without saying), but also little to throw us off his scent, which doesn't seem right from a 3-man scum team. Either scum have ditched him from Day 1, or he's just a useless townie who so happens to have been given a PR, which we're now debating about destroying for good

I don't want to vote NS, I've come around on the idea of HD being genuine and just playing bad, so I'd like to see Belisarius flip.

Belisarius has essentially been active lurking, the bait on Apozzle in #632 to make a case on him was both bizarre and scummy. I believe that's been his way of staying a part of the conversation without actually having to contribute. I believe drawing out a case on him has worked because now all he's really been interested in doing all day is launching some sort of great defence. This has shown him to be completely devoid of scumhunting or in-game analysis and the only time he's committed to voting anyone is in #809, where he says he'd vote implosion (a non-existent wagon) and, bizarrely enough, myself for not making a case on him. So his subsequent vote on HD in #839 comes across as a little too quick and opportunistic.

This lynch would open up the door to look at some interesting interactions between players and isn't putting any PR claims at risk. This guy's looked scummy all day, yet when it's come to the crunch the pressure's disappeared. Let's make it stick.

VOTE: Belisarius

[Thurhame]

We need 4 more votes to lynch. Cheery has confirmed he's willing to lynch Beli, that leaves 3.

@SafetyDance:

No one is voting Edo, would you be willing to vote Beli as your backup instead?

@Apozzle:

Your last read on Beli was leaning Scum. Would you be willing to vote him?

@Nobody Special:

No one is joining you on ac. Would you be willing to compromise with Beli?

@Human Destroyer:

Would you be willing to vote Beli to avoid a no-lynch?