/in-vitational 12: Mafia in #YOLOville - All wrapped up!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

We've had 2 Days worth of stuff to analyze. There's plenty of stuff that concretely went wrong so look at that if you want to look for a cause, 'marble. Hint: not me.

Last night when I was reading over the game, the sense that I got of ces today is that he's mostly arguing about argument types, and talking about how scum buddies interact and less about actual scum. CES - who do you think ogml's partners are?

I can't help it if 'marble won't listen to me and keeps pushing my lynch on erroneous grounds. I'm not sure who OGML's partners are. There are three people that definitely don't look town - Shadoweh, benmage and Nacho but they only look mildly townie on a closer look. Benmage would fit as a partner given OGML's genuine disgust.

[Faraday]

Day 3, Votecount 8

Cogito Ergo Sum (4) - Tammy, Llamarble, Shadoweh, Zachrulez

Benmage (1) - OhGodMyLife
OhGodMyLife (1) - Cogito Ergo Sum
Nachomamma8 (2) - Benmage, Deasvail
Llamarble (1) - Nachomamma8

Not voting (2) :

Empire, Tierce

• With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.
  
• Deadline is on 7th of April at 3:59am GMT
  
• Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2013-04-06 23:59:59)
  
• Benmage is V/la

[Llamarble]

Took a look at Tierce and while she could conceivably be scum and hasn't been an uberfountain of scumhunting insights this game (who has?) she'd be playing pretty well if evil.

Shadoweh did kinda disengage after I started calling her town.
CES, if you're not scum I think Shadoweh is (on wagons both you being the only scum option for hers and her being the only scum option for yours today).
I should probably reread Shadoweh.

How about TET folks offer an opinion on
1. It is very likely that at least one of CES / Shadoweh is scum.
2. Which one they think is more likely.

Having just reread Shadoweh, I still feel pretty good about her.
And if she's town, the world is just Way simpler and makes more sense if CES is scum.
Shadoweh (6) - Tierce, Cogito Ergo Sum, Vi, Llamarble, Untrod Tripod, Empire
And now
CES - Tammy, llama, Shadoweh, Zach

[Tierce]

How about TET folks offer an opinion on
1. It is very likely that at least one of CES / Shadoweh is scum.
2. Which one they think is more likely.

I think my answer is obvious, but hey, why not. Not like I'm doing much anyway, so let's trust Tammy knows what she's doing.

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

[Tierce]

Could also be persuaded to vote Nacho.

Benmage would fit as a partner given OGML's genuine disgust.

Explain this?

[Empire]

How about TET folks offer an opinion on
1. It is very likely that at least one of CES / Shadoweh is scum.
2. Which one they think is more likely.

If only by PoE, sure -- aside from that, I'm not sure that conditional is meaningful? I'd vote CES over her though because I do kinda believe her when she says she's not very good at scum (I think I remember that being the case but then there's ADwD) and I do get the feeling I'm wrong about something else but I don't know what. Honestly, pretty much everyone looks like town at this point.

[Faraday]

Prodding Benmage

[Tammy]

He left several colors at home in his attempt to paint a picture that lead to benmage scum because of the hammer.

The point is that there was a shit ton of things that came into the equation of us mislynching twice. Llamarble is arguing that the playerlist being good somehow means that now it's time to say "okay, CES can't be town too", and that's not quite right.

I guess I still don't get the point of the ones you chose to include or what point that makes. The posts you included show vi telling us we don't have a lot of time, shadoweh at l-1, it claiming and Ben hammering. Are you making a statement about the shadoweh wagon falling apart or Ben hammering ut after he claimed?

The point is that we've had two days where deadline panic played a significant part in the lynch. Both days in a row, there's been a point of lag, deadline clamor, mislynch. The second day we even got a deadline extension, but we really didn't do anything with it, instead ended up driving a claim then hammering without any discussion. Obviously shitty play, obviously can't really be anyone's fault even though Llamarble is acting like something else happened entirely.

I don't see how you're viewing it that way. Day one had a significant early wagon on llamarble and a decent wagon on ctd. The main competing wagons then formed on n and pa with the ultimate choice being between them. In fact those two wagons competed for almost three days before the lynch was finalized hours before deadline. You got what you wanted that day as you fought to keep n alive instead of pa; the majority of your day one play was defense of n. There was no deadline panic to that lynch at all, and I'm surprised you're now characterizing it that way.

Day two was hardly a deadline panic either. If there was a deadline panic, we would have lynched shadoweh who was at l-1 at deadline and had claimed vanilla. She should have been the lynch yesterday. That lynch was a comedy of errors beginning when ut went weeeeee let's see if we can do something else in 24 hours for whimsy and ended in the clusterfuck that ended with his lynch. There was no deadline panic there either. Okay bn could have held off on the hammer, but ut also obviously wasn't actually interested in discussion or he would have, you know, just answered some of the questions I had earlier.

Is this why you're voting llamarble? Because he's trying to find a reason for why we've mislynched instead of oversimplifying it as deadline panic? There are clear reasons the wagons hve shifted so far.

[Tammy]

I can't help it if 'marble won't listen to me and keeps pushing my lynch on erroneous grounds. I'm not sure who OGML's partners are. There are three people that definitely don't look town - Shadoweh, benmage and Nacho but they only look mildly townie on a closer look. Benmage would fit as a partner given OGML's genuine disgust.

You don't have a town read on benmage?

[Tammy]

How about TET folks offer an opinion on
1. It is very likely that at least one of CES / Shadoweh is scum.
2. Which one they think is more likely.

Its likely?

I've talked about ces quite a bit, and shadoweh bugs me most on a tonal level. She keeps expressing annoyance and frustration and I can't figure out why. It feels like she's trying to reproduce town indignation and is overdoing it. I think it's replaced her scumhunting which is setting off alarms, especially when what scumhunting she has done is based on erroneous meta information.

[Tammy]

]I think my answer is obvious, but hey, why not. Not like I'm doing much anyway, so let's trust Tammy knows what she's doing.

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

Even though Tammy has said she doesn't know what she's doing? >_>

But regarding your next post, I'm still contemplating if nacho wouldn't be a better lynch, but I have to run off to work now. So, I'll get back to this later.

[Tierce]

Even though Tammy has said she doesn't know what she's doing? >_>

I throw my hands up in the air sometimes
saying hey-o--gotta let go~

[Zachrulez]

I've gotten a town impression from Nacho's posts, but interest in lynching him seems to be rising. Is there something I'm missing?

[Nachomamma8]

How is it nobody's fault? Causelessness is rare.

Yes, but the problem is not specific scum players being too good at all.

If the best players in a game are all town, there should be enough scumbags in the not-incredibly-hard-to-read pile that the army of beastly town-players ought to be able to reach some reads with some confidence.

Like who?

Instead the scum are good enough / the town is ungood enough that most of the towniest players have struggled getting reads, leading to deadline wagons.
I see CES being scum as the best explanation of this situation, and he also works by process of elimination and the fact that I simply can see his posts coming from scum.

But why is CES the best explanation of the situation? Him being scum doesn't mean that his partners are impossible to catch.

I don't see how you're viewing it that way. Day one had a significant early wagon on llamarble and a decent wagon on ctd. The main competing wagons then formed on n and pa with the ultimate choice being between them. In fact those two wagons competed for almost three days before the lynch was finalized hours before deadline. You got what you wanted that day as you fought to keep n alive instead of pa; the majority of your day one play was defense of n. There was no deadline panic to that lynch at all, and I'm surprised you're now characterizing it that way.

N was a very strong townread, yes. PA was a lesser townread. You're right in that deadline panic isn't the best way to describe Day 1, but the deadline played a significant part in the lynch. I don't know if you noticed or not, but penguin got lynched only after the entirety of the ctd wagon came over. A few people from that wagon (Johhog, myself, Benmage) came over to the penguin wagon because our respective lynches weren't going through. So it's not a surprise that the day ended in a mislynch and I don't see why CES had any part in that happening.

Day two was hardly a deadline panic either. If there was a deadline panic, we would have lynched shadoweh who was at l-1 at deadline and had claimed vanilla. She should have been the lynch yesterday. That lynch was a comedy of errors beginning when ut went weeeeee let's see if we can do something else in 24 hours for whimsy and ended in the clusterfuck that ended with his lynch. There was no deadline panic there either. Okay bn could have held off on the hammer, but ut also obviously wasn't actually interested in discussion or he would have, you know, just answered some of the questions I had earlier.

If there wasn't a deadline, that lynch wouldn't have escalated as quickly as it did at all.

Is this why you're voting llamarble? Because he's trying to find a reason for why we've mislynched instead of oversimplifying it as deadline panic? There are clear reasons the wagons hve shifted so far.

I'm voting Llamarble because there's a clear reason why we're mislynching and it sure as hell isn't CES.
Do you believe otherwise?

[Llamarble]

How is it nobody's fault? Causelessness is rare.

Yes, but the problem is not specific scum players being too good at all.

If the best players in a game are all town, there should be enough scumbags in the not-incredibly-hard-to-read pile that the army of beastly town-players ought to be able to reach some reads with some confidence.

Like who?

Instead the scum are good enough / the town is ungood enough that most of the towniest players have struggled getting reads, leading to deadline wagons.
I see CES being scum as the best explanation of this situation, and he also works by process of elimination and the fact that I simply can see his posts coming from scum.

But why is CES the best explanation of the situation? Him being scum doesn't mean that his partners are impossible to catch.

For something like the fifth time:
There are plenty of players who aren't that difficult to read correctly.
Empire, Tierce, Nacho and myself all have reputations for strong town games and weaker scum games.
I don't think DV / Shadoweh / Benmage / various others have what it takes to fool me and Vi and CES and TET and so on.
If you remove CES from the awesome townies pile and add him to the hard-to-find scum pile with the bonus that because of how good he is he can influence the lynch away from buddies, the odds of us mislynching twice increase a lot. Since P(mislynching twice with CES scum) is substantially greater than P(mislynching twice with CES town), CES is more likely to be scum by Bayes rule. In addition, process of elimination has narrowed the pool to him and a few others. And his own posting simply works from scum. And the game's events (ESPECIALLY the wagon compositions), when read assuming CES is scum, make a lot more sense than they do with him as town (though substituting Shadowehscum for him would account for some of this).
This is sufficient for me to lynch CES today. If he flips town I will be very disappointed.
Shadoweh being scum is the best alternative to CES being scum, but I don't think Shadoweh is scum.
Nacho is the only lynch other than CES I would be really tempted by for today.
I let OMGUS keep me from lynching CESscum in Revolution mafia though, and I am not interested in repeating that, so Nacho goes second.

I don't see how you're viewing it that way. Day one had a significant early wagon on llamarble and a decent wagon on ctd. The main competing wagons then formed on n and pa with the ultimate choice being between them. In fact those two wagons competed for almost three days before the lynch was finalized hours before deadline. You got what you wanted that day as you fought to keep n alive instead of pa; the majority of your day one play was defense of n. There was no deadline panic to that lynch at all, and I'm surprised you're now characterizing it that way.

N was a very strong townread, yes. PA was a lesser townread. You're right in that deadline panic isn't the best way to describe Day 1, but the deadline played a significant part in the lynch. I don't know if you noticed or not, but penguin got lynched only after the entirety of the ctd wagon came over. A few people from that wagon (Johhog, myself, Benmage) came over to the penguin wagon because our respective lynches weren't going through. So it's not a surprise that the day ended in a mislynch and I don't see why CES had any part in that happening.

Normal things like people debating and compromising before the deadline happened. Therefore it isn't any surprise that the day ended in a mislynch.
Wat. As has been your usual this game the premise does not imply the conclusion.

Day two was hardly a deadline panic either. If there was a deadline panic, we would have lynched shadoweh who was at l-1 at deadline and had claimed vanilla. She should have been the lynch yesterday. That lynch was a comedy of errors beginning when ut went weeeeee let's see if we can do something else in 24 hours for whimsy and ended in the clusterfuck that ended with his lynch. There was no deadline panic there either. Okay bn could have held off on the hammer, but ut also obviously wasn't actually interested in discussion or he would have, you know, just answered some of the questions I had earlier.

If there wasn't a deadline, that lynch wouldn't have escalated as quickly as it did at all.

We seriously considered at least 4 lynches late d2 and put enough votes on them to make them serious possibilities, and earlier D2 there was a Vi wagon.
Calling late D2 a comedy of errors is simply inaccurate; a lot of the scumhunting in this game happened during that time.
We got it wrong, but chalking that up to the fact that a lot occurred in a short time is unsound.

Is this why you're voting llamarble? Because he's trying to find a reason for why we've mislynched instead of oversimplifying it as deadline panic? There are clear reasons the wagons hve shifted so far.

I'm voting Llamarble because there's a clear reason why we're mislynching and it sure as hell isn't CES.
Do you believe otherwise?

Yes

I put votes on CES, Shadoweh, UT, and Benmage yesterday all with expectation of lynch.
I helped lynch PA instead of N D1, but so did you, and I was also part of the CTD wagon.

So Nacho unless you think CES Shadoweh and Benmage are all town, which if you buy into TET + Zach leaves you with a me / OGML / DV scumteam, I tried to lynch scum at least once late D2.

I have also been one of the more energetic drivers of things-happening in this game, and if you seriously can look at my posting and not see somebody trying to figure out the game / make town win, there is something wrong with you. My play surrounding my wagon D1 was also pretty darn town. And if anybody were to actually want to lynch me I can go back and point out a number of things I've said that would require my scumplay here to be :awesome:. It's okay though; you aren't dumb, you're scum and going to die tomorrow after CES.

[Llamarble]

How about TET folks offer an opinion on
1. It is very likely that at least one of CES / Shadoweh is scum.
2. Which one they think is more likely.

If only by PoE, sure -- aside from that, I'm not sure that conditional is meaningful?

There are several wagons that are all-town on a townie if both of them are town, under our assumptions:
penguin_alien (5) - Konowa, Wickedestjr, Cogito Ergo Sum, Johhog, Shadoweh
Shadoweh (5) - Tierce, Cogito Ergo Sum, Vi, Llamarble, Untrod Tripod
The current CES wagon of me Tierce Tammy Shadoweh Zach

I currently believe CES Nacho DV is the scumteam.

[DeasVail]

Nacho, I disagree with Llamarble as well, but how does that make him scum?

Also, I think CES is at L-1 (unless there is vote-related role stuff going on, the VC above should read as him having 4 votes)

[Zachrulez]

Yeah, he's at lynch -1 now.

[Llamarble]

*cue Benmage trollhammer*

[Zachrulez]

A day that didn't make it to the day of the deadline would be a nice change of pace actually.

[OhGodMyLife]

CES trying to tie me to benmage is a hilariously transparent about-face. Declaring intent to hammer. Y'all have until I get home from work tonight if there is anything else you feel like adding to today.

Nacho-marble debate is a distracting waste of time. You're talking past each other. And honestly, enough with the "best town players ever" chest puffing.

[Llamarble]

That's just as much me praising others as praising myself, but I understand how it could be annoying.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES trying to tie me to benmage is a hilariously transparent about-face. Declaring intent to hammer.

Do you disagree with my reasoning that your attack on benmage makes more sense as scum-on-scum than as scum-on-town? Because if so, what is your issue here? Am I not to supposed to answer questions and share my thoughts?

I'm annoyingly busy. I should have time tomorrow.

[Tammy]

Jut a quick flyby

UNVOTE:

To avoid a hammer today.

Get back to this later, probably tomorrow.

[DeasVail]

Eh, I obviously still prefer a Nacho lynch.