Open 480 - C9++ Game Over!

[Human Destroyer]

If you couldn't tell, I didn't shoot.

VOTE: Thurhame

Don't have time right now, but I'm pretty sure this is the lynch I want to push

[Cheery Dog]

ok, scratch everything i said in 932.

any one-shot cop should counterclaim tomorrow; it means NS or Beli is lying
any one-shot blocker should counterclaim tomorrow; it means Beli is lying
godfather is guaranteed unless we have two different fakeclaims including Beli

Why did the doctor claim mean that?
Besides the fact it was fake, it would have only put us to seven non-T letters. Which is possible.
We can only confirm there is a scum amognst the claims if there are more than 7.

Though there being a Godfather has been proved correct.

Actions/results from other claims?
We should have a confirmed town from either the cop or roleblocker unless one or both of them are scum.

[ac1983fan]

VOTE: PeaceOfPecanPie
This might seem out there, but notice how he was one of the few defenders of Edos towards the end of the last day. Additionally, he's been very jumpy the whole game but especially day two...he was on nearly every wagon that led to a claim EXCEPT the Edos wagon, which turned out to be scum.

Also, we discussed a massclaim yesterday. Is that happening or?

[implosion]

We don't do anything until (IN THIS ORDER):

1) Belisarius claims a result
2) NS claims a roleblock target

I mean, we can discuss shit and stuff, but don't speculate about who they targeted until they claim targets. I would also probably like a massclaim depending on what is claimed from massclaim.

[Cheery Dog]

I would also probably like a massclaim depending on what is claimed from massclaim.

We need to find out what is claimed from massclaim, ie before we do it, before you approve of us doing it?
I think we should massclaim after those above results/targets are given.

[implosion]

...I'm sleep deprived ;_;.

[Belisarius]

I investigated Susan last night and received no result.

VOTE: Thurhame

Thur's play yesterday looked like rolefishing; a massclaim today

could

make that irrelevant but I still don't like it.

[Belisarius]

It's also worth noting that my suspicion of HD has abated due to the way this recently completed game ended -- He forgot to check his investigation results

and

forgot to claim for a while. That makes it in character for him to get role PMs mixed up.

[Nobody Special]

Last night I blocked Susan.

[Thurhame]

That makes Susan confirmed Town (unless NS or Beli is lying).

Confirmation of a Godfather means 0-2 T's; that makes 6 non-T letters a lot more plausible than some people were saying before.

About a mass-claim, it can either confirm HD's innocence (no additional roles); confirm someone is fakeclaiming (two+ additional roles); or tell us nothing (one additional role, the most likely scenario). I don't know whether it's worth it; what does everyone else think?

[Thurhame]

Why did the doctor claim mean that?

Scratch everything I said after the claim; I was assuming that he wouldn't lie after he'd already been lynched.

[Thurhame]

Ac can be town forever for helping me get that wagon started. I see no incentive for him to bus there.

[Thurhame]

VOTE: PeaceOfPecanPie
This might seem out there, but notice how he was one of the few defenders of Edos towards the end of the last day. Additionally, he's been very jumpy the whole game but especially day two...he was on nearly every wagon that led to a claim EXCEPT the Edos wagon, which turned out to be scum.

Doesn't fly anymore, as that would mean he's also partners with one of the other wagons (NS or Beli), which he WAS on.

[implosion]

That makes Susan confirmed Town (unless NS or Beli is lying).

Which NS probably is~

Confirmation of a Godfather means 0-2 T's; that makes 6 non-T letters a lot more plausible than some people were saying before.

Nope. not 0-2: 0 *OR* 2. 1 T requires a serial killer. Which is part of why we massclaim. Additionally, again from Bayes' theorem, 7 non-T letters is very unlikely (albeit not impossible). Note i am assuming no serial killer which i think is fair.


Right now, the claimed town power is MMVCCBX. The godfather flip confirms that at least three other town power roles exist. So, massclaiming is awesome right now:

-if another PR claims, we get more information, with a PR likely dying tonight anyway.
-if none claims, then we get, effectively, a counterclaim situation between Nobody Special and Human Destroyer, because there would necessarily be exactly five letters.
-either way, since so much power has been claimed, it's the point at which massclaim will be beneficial.

[ac1983fan]

That makes Susan confirmed Town (unless NS or Beli is lying).

By what logic? There are almost certainly two mafiosos left...PoPC could have been the scum who didn't submit any night actions.

[ac1983fan]

(Sorry about the double post)

Ac can be town forever for helping me get that wagon started. I see no incentive for him to bus there.

Helping you get that wagon started? I had been pushing for an Edos lynch mostly the entire day before you were even a player in the game. There was no intent to help you do anything.

[Thurhame]

Note i am assuming no serial killer which i think is fair.

Why do you think that?

That makes Susan confirmed Town (unless NS or Beli is lying).

By what logic? There are almost certainly two mafiosos left...PoPC could have been the scum who didn't submit any night actions.

Nope. According to the wiki page linked in one of the mod's opening posts, the Mafia Roleblocker is not allowed to block and kill in the same night.

Though I forgot about the possibility where Susan was the goon and the kill actually came from the SK. I don't think an SK is

likely

at this point, but the possibility is there.

[Thurhame]

-if none claims, then we get, effectively, a counterclaim situation between Nobody Special and Human Destroyer, because there would necessarily be exactly five letters.

Wouldn't a scum HD require 6 letters, if he's an SK fakeclaiming 1-shot vig?

[SafetyDance]

Catching up now. Definitely think thurhame is a bad lynch. If he's scum why would he string up the godfather like that? Sense it does not make.

Godfather/scum being lynched means we can hold off massclaiming for another day I think.

Nobody needs to eat rope. The fact that Beli got a no result, more so.

[SafetyDance]

Vote: Nobody Special

I may be missing something here but if you got 'no result', Beli, why aren't you focusing on NS, who claimed to be a RB? That or Susan having Inv-Imm, therefore SK (although we're down to 33% chance of there being a SK now)?

A no result means you were blocked for a reason.

VOTE: PeaceOfPecanPie
This might seem out there, but notice how he was one of the few defenders of Edos towards the end of the last day. Additionally, he's been very jumpy the whole game but especially day two...he was on nearly every wagon that led to a claim EXCEPT the Edos wagon, which turned out to be scum.

Also, we discussed a massclaim yesterday. Is that happening or?

More on this, he wasn't on any wagon at lynch, two days in a row. Who on earth does that as town?

That makes Susan confirmed Town (unless NS or Beli is lying).

Confirmation of a Godfather means 0-2 T's; that makes 6 non-T letters a lot more plausible than some people were saying before.

About a mass-claim, it can either confirm HD's innocence (no additional roles); confirm someone is fakeclaiming (two+ additional roles); or tell us nothing (one additional role, the most likely scenario). I don't know whether it's worth it; what does everyone else think?

How does it make Susan conf town? What if he's their RB'er and the goon sent in the kill? (inb4 pecan, this don't not include the scenario that ns is scum rb)

[Human Destroyer]

I'm relatively sure RBs don't work on RBs

[Human Destroyer]

That or Susan having Inv-Imm, therefore SK (although we're down to 33% chance of there being a SK now)?

Inv-Immune inspects as Town, not No Result

[SafetyDance]

I'm relatively sure RBs don't work on RBs

Beli is not claiming RB

That or Susan having Inv-Imm, therefore SK (although we're down to 33% chance of there being a SK now)?

Inv-Immune inspects as Town, not No Result

Oh? In that case he was definitely roleblocked. So shouldn't we focus on NS then since he is you know...claiming a role blocker and literally done nothing to help town in any shape or form?

[Thurhame]

Safety, the Scum have a Roleblocker, period. Nobody Special's honesty or lack thereof does not change that.

[Thurhame]

How does it make Susan conf town? What if he's their RB'er and the goon sent in the kill? (inb4 pecan, this don't not include the scenario that ns is scum rb)

If he's their roleblocker, then he couldn't have roleblocked Beli.