Newbie 1345: Mafia in a Bind (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 3.01

Not Voting (5) - Didi, frog, Mac, NicCage, Xiao Long

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.

The deadline is Tuesday, April 23, 2013, at 5:40 PM EDT (UTC-4).

[frog]

Alright, it's best to take this stage slow. Lylo's never a good place to be.

My finger of suspicion is on Mac. He's largely responsible for tomorrow's quicklynch, and when we consider that he'd been asked by me and others to take his vote off to prevent a selfhammer he then put it back on with no explanation. Prior to that Mac advocated a quickhammer (that in hindsight didn't matter) back in D1 with all the confusion after Mutley's hammer vote, and then again when we weren't even a day into D2. He also tried to use the act of

not

hammering Mutley as a scumtell in order to influence a quicklynch.

In post 469 he claims for some reason (we're all vanillas, whether we actually are or not) and starts off by defending himself by saying 'scum likely didn't vote', though it is equally (perhaps more so) likely that they were on the wagon. Xiao points out the issues in the post very well anyhow; he's scum but scum are off the wagon?
I don't like Mac's small case on Xiao either. After his most recent post he reads townier to me.
I think the scumteam is Mac/NicCage. Didi is town and has been a townread for me since I replaced in. Xiao I'm leaning town on now.

[Mac]

Xiao, if you were town, you wouldn't be telling me to vote for you.

[Mac]

And the key word is LIKELY. Then I read back and saw a case against Xiao.

The thing is: Mutley made perfect sense.

By the way, the reason Xiao is telling me to vote him is so he can say "look, I haven't been quickhammered, Mac is maf."

[Didi]

Or it's the other way around Mac; he thinks you're mafia therefore he isn't afraid of you placing a vote on him, but I suppose it's kinda WIFOM to judge

[Mac]

No, that doesn't make sense. If he thinks I'm the maf, he should place a vote on me. But he doesn't - because when there's no quickhammer it proves me or him is scum.

Again, if you think I'm scum, vote for me.

Then vote for me.

These are not town posts. If he is town, he's asking me to vote him instead of proving why he isn't scum. This is Xiao trying to frame me.

[NicCage]

I don't think #419 is a strong towntell. Didi flips around a bunch on reads early D1 without really trying to follow through on any of them. He's sure Mutley is scum, then back off once Xeg and MP5 read him as town. MP5 makes a case on Didi, and Didi's defense is that he doesn't really know what he's doing. Ok, I can live with that.
But later in the day Didi sheeps MP5 and frog on slimer without any hesitation or scumhunting, he see's it as an easy lynch.
Onto D2, he stops Mac wanting a quicklynch, which is a town thing to do, but when he says he wants more information he doesn't go out and make any. All he does is pose a far fetched scenario. I think this is an attempt to pick up towncred while waiting out the inevitable Mutley lynch.

That said, Mac has been asserting some really weird stuff lately. The point about frog's voting was never valid, and he carried it far too long.
Also, how is Xiao telling you to vote him any different from what you just did? You're saying if he thinks you're mafia he should vote you, and that's exactly the argument he's making.

I didn't think Didi and Mac could be scum together though so I'll have to reassess my scumteam reads

[Xiao Long]

Xiao, if you were town, you wouldn't be telling me to vote for you.

Why not? You seem to be sure I'm scum, yet you're not voting for me. All you're doing is wasting time. You're clearly not confident in your own analysis.

The thing is: Mutley made perfect sense.

Hold on, let me chuckle for a bit.

By the way, the reason Xiao is telling me to vote him is so he can say "look, I haven't been quickhammered, Mac is maf."

No, I'm telling you to vote for me if you think I'm scum instead of pussyfooting around.

No, that doesn't make sense. If he thinks I'm the maf, he should place a vote on me. But he doesn't - because when there's no quickhammer it proves me or him is scum.

You're right, I should place a vote on you.
VOTE: Mac

If he's town and scum hammers him, GG

[Mac]

Scum won't hammer me because you are scum.

[NicCage]

VOTE: Mac I think Xiao is right

[Xiao Long]

Unvote

Why are you so quick to jump on this Nic?

[Xiao Long]

Scum won't hammer me because you are scum.

Or you're scum. Perhaps we should play a bit of Russian roulette? See, I'm not scum, and I'm quite aware of that. The only thing I know for certain is two of the four people besides me are scum. The possibility of you being scum is quite high.

[Mac]

Yeah Nic looks scummy there. Well done for unvoting.

You won't get many more posts from me tonight, I'm going out. Try not to lynch town please.

[Xiao Long]

I have no intention of having anyone lynched tonight. We've got quite a bit of time left in this day.

[NicCage]

Because I've decided which way I want to go. I think Didi and Mac are the scumteam. It would have been stupid for town to immediately lynch Mutley on D2, so why would Mac even think that?
I think Mac and Didi planned that conversation so that Didi could pick up towncred and MP5 wouldn't push his lynch. Now MP5 is dead and Mac clears Didi as a townread, while pushing a shitty case against you.

[Xiao Long]

While I actually do believe Mac has a very high chance of being scum, I'm not sure the Mac-Didi conversation could be planned out that well. I'm not ruling it out as a possibility, of course.
So, if you think Mac and Didi are scum, what makes you think me and Frog are town?

[Didi]

I thought it was Nic and Mac, but this just made them look like an unlikely team.

Also Nic you're full of shit, where is Mac clearing me as a townread? Pretty sure he still wrongly thinks I'm mafia.

[frog]

Ok, everyone unvote and slow down.
A lot of us seem to have scumreads on Mac and I agree that he should be lynched, but I'd appreciate some input from Mac as to who he thinks Xiao's supposed scum partner is. After the last few posts Xiao reads very town; why do you suspect him, Mac?

P-edit: Didi, Mac talked about a 'townslip' by you a page back. He thinks you're town. (look at post 470)

[NicCage]

#419 is Didi's townslip.

I guess he didn't explicitly say Didi is town, but I think it was implied

[Mac]

Can you guys wait for me? I won't be here tonight and most of tomorrow.

I'm also not maf. Why would I push the lynch of town mutley when he was digging himself a grave and bound to be lynched. Ask yourself that. And look at my scum-meta. I'm not stupid like that.

Anyway, I'm off.

[Didi]

By the minute I'm getting more and more convinced that frog might be mafia. Though this might be overbearing paranoia from my side, but hear me out: he seems like he's going out of his way to agree with me. He has the same initial scumreads as me this phase, and while I stated first that I think he's likely town he states that he has seen me as a townread since he's been in the game.

What I find even more odd about this is that nobody seems to think this strange, and point this out. If I was mafia, and 2 people seemed to be connected like that I'd definitely point it out to try and get one of them lynched. Which makes me think that must mean that the mafia don't want to point this out themselves because they don't want frog, who is mafia, to be lynched. However they do want to establish the connection so that in the event frog gets lynched, the remaining mafiaguy can easily point towards me as appearing scum.
It also could simultaniously work as a ploy to get me to trust frog and vote along with him on a townie.


So, this has led me to believe that the combinations frog/nic and to a lesser extent frog/xiao became a lot more viable.

[frog]

I don't think having the same two scumreads this phase is unlikely, and as for the town-read thing, check my ISO for my original posts and you'll see I'm just reaffirming my read. The purpose of me stating it was to show the process of elimination; you're a townread, Xiao's a townread, Mac's scum, Nic's null but due to poe he's the second most likely scum in my eyes. These reads aren't me sheeping you at the start of this phase, either; I found Mac scummy yesterday when he was pushing me for Mutley's scumbuddy, and Nic's slot has always been a null tell. Furthermore, we're not really connected; I disagreed with some of your reads D1 and you followed me onto slimer's wagon and not the other way around. I certainly haven't been going out of my way at all.

Are there any more examples you can provide other than the two in your post?

[Xiao Long]

Er, Didi, I'm having a slight problem understanding what you're talking about. Would you mind explaining:

he seems like he's going out of his way to agree with me. He has the same initial scumreads as me this phase, and while I stated first that I think he's likely town he states that he has seen me as a townread since he's been in the game.

So, you think he's scum because he stated you were town after you said he was? 336 was his first real post of the game and he said you were likely town.

What I find even more odd about this is that nobody seems to think this strange, and point this out. If I was mafia, and 2 people seemed to be connected like that I'd definitely point it out to try and get one of them lynched. Which makes me think that must mean that the mafia don't want to point this out themselves because they don't want frog, who is mafia, to be lynched. However they do want to establish the connection so that in the event frog gets lynched, the remaining mafiaguy can easily point towards me as appearing scum.
It also could simultaniously work as a ploy to get me to trust frog and vote along with him on a townie.

Wait, think what is strange? And connected like what?
If you could maybe reword this, that would be great, cause right now I'm confused as to what you're getting at.

[Didi]

@frog:
Not really. Though I did not follow you onto the Slimer wagon; I had stated way earlier and more often in the phase that I thought that Slimer was suspicious. I was mistaken, but still. Don't try and twist the situation.


As for Mac; 4 people, everyone but himself (ofc), are saying he's suspicous/probably mafia.
That's why I'm beginning to doubt he might be mafia. Cuz I think it's more likely for 2 mafia and 2 townies to be a on a townie's case than that there's 3 townies and 1 mafia on a mafia's case. Though of course it could be that the remaining mafia just doesn't want to be seen as protecting his buddy and therefore he goes along with the townies, but still.

So, assuming for the argument, Mac is a townie then, that leaves me with you, Nic and Xiao. Now, after what happened earlier with the vote/unvote, I think it's unlikely that Nic and Xiao are a team together. Therefore I am left to conclude you must be mafia together with one of them (and imo Nic seems more scumlike than Xiao).


@Xiao:
what I was trying to say was that he has/had the same reads as me, and thinks I'm town while I thought he was town, so that makes me a bit paranoid and think he might be mafia trying to get me on his side.

[frog]

I wasn't twisting it, what I meant was that I hadn't buddied you consciously and there have been moments where we've agreed but I didn't sheep you (if that makes sense). I have acted on my own thoughts for the entirety of this game and I haven't 'gone out of [my] way' to follow anybody. Players can agree naturally, you know?

About the reads, if you'll check 336, you'll see that we haven't had the same reads. In fact, on D1, I had more in common with MP5 than with you. I'm not seeing connection as deep or as exclusive as you're implying; you're rather exaggerating the case.