Newbie 1351: Hyrule's Under Attack.. Interesting..-GAME OVER

[Deras]

There are 9 players and 2 scum. Consider the set of SE/IC. The chance that they are all town is P(IC is not scum) * P(SE A is not scum given IC is not scum) * P(SE B is not scum given SE A and IC are not scum) = 7/9 * 6/8 * 5/7 = 210/504 ~= 42%. It is more likely than not that at least one SE/IC is scum. But it's far from definite.

Too lazy to do the math right now, but I think this is only almost right. From my perspective there are only 8 players and 2 scum, so the odds of one SE/IC being scum are slightly higher.

[Eye Urn]

Town > Mac > Fropome > Deras > Revenus = Carey = ArcAngel > ffer > GM > Scum

ArcAngel looks like terrible town. Deras looks like he's at least trying. Revenus I don't like the playstyle of, but it feels like it's coming from a more townish direction. If Mac and Fropome are scum they are doing an extraordinary job in coming off as genuinely town to me.

GM/ffer cooled down way too easily for me. Way, way too easily. I don't like ffer's unvote based on meta, mainly because I have a strong disdain for any meta beyond the kind that Carey shows. The people in this game are self-aware enough to use the knowledge of their meta to their own advantage, and I feel both of these players have been trying to push their metas at us too much. As it stands now after my thorough re-reading, I'm seeing them very strongly as the scum pair. In case they aren't both scum, I'm definitely leaning more towards GM being scum. A lot of her posts suggest that she feels she knows more than we do. Maybe some of that's due to experience, but it feels like it's more than that. As for specifics, I'll point to the sigbet which is conveniently void if she's scum. I asked for specific terms for an entirely different reason, and managed to wheedle out that her sigbet is effectively a null-proposition when she knows it's wrong. I had assumed she lost if she were scum since she wasn't in the specified set. Just her whole attitude about this topic screamed "I know more than you" as I re-read.

I still don't like Carey's lack of actually playing, but given that his wagon has no traction and I have a stronger scum read now...

VOTE: goodmorning

[Eye Urn]

There are 9 players and 2 scum. Consider the set of SE/IC. The chance that they are all town is P(IC is not scum) * P(SE A is not scum given IC is not scum) * P(SE B is not scum given SE A and IC are not scum) = 7/9 * 6/8 * 5/7 = 210/504 ~= 42%. It is more likely than not that at least one SE/IC is scum. But it's far from definite.

Too lazy to do the math right now, but I think this is only almost right. From my perspective there are only 8 players and 2 scum, so the odds of one SE/IC being scum are slightly higher.

Ok, sure, since each person has been given information on the setup, each person's calculation will be different. But clearly it was meant as an objective statement, with her own alignment not being considered. Having considered that, I now have a slight feel that she actually knows that exactly one of the IC/SE is scum (probably GM), but there's so much in ffer/GM that reeks of a convenient early day 1 distancing followed by crude reconciliation allowing them to actually agree in the future when it matters more.

[TraceyLyn11]

VOTE COUNT 1.4

[L-4] Fropome: (goodmorning)

[L-4] fferyllt: (Mac)

[L-4] Deras: (CareyHammer)

[L-5] ArcAngel9:

[L-5] Mac:

[L-5] Eye Urn:

[L-4] CareyHammer: (Revenus)

[L-5] Revenus:

[L-3] goodmorning: (Fropome, Eye Urn)

Not Voting:

3 (ArcAngel9, Deras, fferyllt)

• With nine alive, it takes five to lynch.
  
• Day One's deadline: April 18, 2013 CST or in (expired on 2013-04-18 20:45:00).
  
• V/LA: Revenus ((expired on 2013-04-07 18:34:00))

[goodmorning]

@Fe:
As concerns meta, I like to be transparent. Since my experience of the site is more than most of yours, I want the playing field to be as even as possible. That said, I don't really feel I understand my meta at all. I know there are some playerlists that just give me magical games, and some playerlists that make it incredibly hard, but I don't think there's any rhyme or reason to it.
As concerns fff, I've made my case. She's rebutted it. I've laid out the bits that she didn't rebut to my satisfaction and conceded those that she did. I don't know what else you want from our exchange, but continual rants/walls from both of us would only be repetitive and furthermore distracting to the town.
As concerns sigbets, did you see the one I made with Fro? How do you feel about it as compared to my proposed one? Would you have taken me up on it if the wording of the third condition had been "...unless you're Scum" rather than "...unless either of us is Scum"?
As concerns knowledge, I do indeed feel I know more than you about certain things.

@Tracey:

Can you please confirm that roles are indeed chosen randomly? Just for the record.

[TraceyLyn11]

@Tracey:

Can you please confirm that roles are indeed chosen randomly? Just for the record.

All roles are completely randomized using random.org.

[Eye Urn]

The reason sigbet bothers me in particular is that GM is the one proposing it, for the apparent reason of showing how confident she is in picking of scum, but in the exact case where she's absolutely sure she's wrong, it's not a bet and in the case that the person taking the bet knows for sure she's wrong, it's not a bet. Including those clauses shows that she's not actually willing to make the bet, but wants it to be out there regardless. It's not as if there's some general offer out there that she was stating willingness to take one side on; she created the actual terms of the bet and in doing so making it such that no one would ever want to take her up on it. Without the clauses it would be a redeeming town ploy to try to get some scum to out themselves by taking a bet they know they'll win. As it stands, purely an attempt to make herself sound townish.

As for the lack of continuing quotewalling, the actual purpose of the quote walls should be to convince other people in the town of their arguments, and they seemed to have failed in that miserably from my perspective. I shall return tomorrow night with my unanswered questions about the exchange. Now it is bedtime.

[fferyllt]

I am so tired that your posts aren't even making sense to me Eye. I'll reread in the morning. I think I'm just sick of this game.

[Mac]

Hello AA9!

Posting from a hotel room briefly to check in and say I will catchup later. Although I find the suggestion that roles are not randomized a bit strange.

And AA9 called me a she.

[fferyllt]

So, I have did a quick catch up, so its going to be a simple reads..

Although this is a newbie game, I can tell that most of the players in this game seem to have had their own experiences elsewhere playing mafia games.

So, apart from the people I know already. Welcome to mafiascum.net rest of you! If you’re a mafia game lover, then you have come to your paradise. This site is a final stop for all the players who love playing mafia games, enjoying staying here.!

My advice for all of you - Slow down first, understand the site meta and people, follow the rules, don’t get offended and play for winning

And about my reads… I have done a fair catch up, I will tone up with you all soon as the game go … (note that I don’t enjoy writing really long posts, so my reads going to be simple .)

Fferullt

– She seems like an aggressive player, almost suspecting everyone in the game which is a good town-tell, Leaning town.

MAC

– mac seems different, she is playing more logically on this game than in the games I have been with her, Leaning town.

What makes you think "more logically" is townish wrt to Mac? What was his alignment in the earlier games you played?

Revenus

– I really didn’t like the way he went on with Carey, Being an SE and knowing this site meta and how things usually works here, he should been knowing already that lurking is common here.. So Just only reasoning lurking for accusing Carey as scum is not good, Leaning scum.

I've been wondering about this. Every game I've played so far has suffered from lurkers. In the finished ones, the most chronic inactive players were town.

Eye Urn

– I don’t like your avatar, I hate giant evil octopus. And, to talk about your game play, I see that you’re pushing GM’s much with no reasons, I am not sure if you were doing that because you think that you may not need direction from an IC or if it is your play style from the other sites that made subjectively concluded that GM is scummy becuz she is being overly cautious ?, either ways you need to remember that she was given an additional task in the game, she usually be more cautions than any player and she is not scummy that way. You’re leaning scum to for now.

Interesting switch from third person to second person. "He" vs "you".

GoodMorning

– Hey, Thanks for the heads up, Yeah I don’t think you’re again too… I am bit bored of suspecting you in almost every game we play. So who do you think is scum here? And btw, you’re doing a great job as IC. Keep it up girl

Carey

– Null so far, you need to pull a better play Carey, and stop saying like you’re catching up. Read through for real and post your reads.

Fropome

– Fro has been one of the active posters, it’s good thing for a newbie with that I can tell you that he is may be new to this site but not new to mafia game. He appears to be buddying up with Eye and Revenus, I don’t have positive read on either of them. So Fro is neutral to me for now.

Deras

– His reads seems genuine, Leaning town.

And to look at this game in a strategic way..
There will be 2 scums in a 9 player game.

And I am positive that there is one scum between SE’s & IC
I feel GM is town, Carey is null. Revenus would be my choice for this day’s lynch, if everyone wants to move this directly.
And there would one more scum in the rest of you.

The switch from 3rd to 2nd person seems to have to do with knowing the player except for Eye. I can't decide if the whole role assignment thing is a red herring or if there's something scummy in grouping the players this way.

[fferyllt]

Hmm. Really screwed that up. somehow.

Let me just pull out my comments/questions

@ArcAngel

Re Mac - What makes you think "more logically" is townish wrt to Mac? What was his alignment in the earlier games you played?

Re Revenus - this parallels what I've been pondering about Revenus while the thread has gone quiet.

There's quite a bit of non-relevant stuff in this, which could be normal for your early game posts. Something to review in other game threads.

[fferyllt]

Stalling is useful as long as it doesn't last too long, gives you a chance to catch your breath and reread/ISO if you have time.

Is Ffery is a new player? but her profile is created long time ago...

"A long time ago."

I drew scum in my first newbie game at the beginning of January, came down with the flu and my father in law passed away in February. I stuck with that one game until it completed, and then started playing multiple games. I have 2 completed games here now, and 3 in progress. I'm alive in two of them, including this one.

I have a lot of other-site forum mafia experience, though.

Oh okay, 3 games. I would say, you still farily new.
But, let me tell you something about this site. the games are here not the same as on other sites, you should be knowing that already!!
I really liked the way how you're looking at every possible way to suspect from almost all the posts, which makes you pro-town but the players on this site posts like hell, and some of their don't even look town to you. So, it is okay to get reads the way usually do but it is also important how you should change especially when you get to different type of games, Games where you have double mafia teams, cult leaders, wear wolf groups etc. People on this site follows different strategies to narrow downlist for scum hunting that includes "Mass claims" as well.

So, when i look at a newbie game, I don't think any MOD would think a bunch newbies can handle the entire mafia team on their own, Although the player role selection is random, it seems obvious to me that one of the SE's or IC's may be a possible scum (I would say high possibility), and all of them won't be scum too, if they do, it will be an one sided game.

I don't always see things in this way, like i said, different games different strategies...

All this advice about other types of games at MS seems kind of irrelevant. Filler?

[fferyllt]

I think I helped spark the filler stuff when the question of my MS experience came up. Not sure how growly to be about getting a bunch of advice irrelevant to this game in the reply.

[fferyllt]

Mac, what is your read on Carey?

@Mac, a quick review of your posts since I asked this question indicates you didn't answer this.

Sorry, totally thought I did. Null-leaning-scum. Needs to post more. Needs more content. Posts like #334 are fucking useless to us all.

In #88 that wasn't your case. We've debunked that and decided the two posts were similar.

VOTE: VOTE: fferyllt

"We've".

Interesting pronoun choice. Who is "We"?

In a quick read back through this, I am seeing your case as "fferyllt accussed GM of going after n00bs but made a post that could also be interpreted as going after n00bs", though both my votes so far have been on experienced players.

If this is true, (and I of course disagree), then you are accusing me of hypocrisy. And your reasoning from there looks like "hypocrisy is scummy".

I'd ask you if you really think a scum player would jump on something a town player did and call it scummy if the scum player was doing the same thing. But, apparently you do think exactly that. Or you are pretending to.

"We've" is just me referring to me debunking it for the town as I thought I had done but yeah, I have to re-read because some people have said I'm misrepping you.

To clarify the hypocrisy, the way I see it goes like this:

Deras - some objectively scummy posts (the OMGUS in particular) but comes off pretty n00b despite playing a few games several years ago. In reading parts of a couple of those games, I got the same sense of earnest effort that I've seen here. Good recovery in his more recent posts, which is also not alignment indicative. Town or scum, he should be doing that.

Looking scummy

goodmorning -

easy targets

and staying away from Carey whose posts have been terrible, and Deras whose bandwagon looked like it had legs there for a bit. Encouragement of the Deras wagon without joining it comes off as subtle manipulation.

Carey - no content. excuses. OMGUS vote on Eye. He'd be hard pressed to look worse. It's like he's trying to look so bad that players will think "he can't possibly be scum. No scum player would do that - it's too obviously scummy".

I clarified "easy target" as Carey and Deras (which could be the exact post of misrep here) and then you name Carey as scummy and Deras as null (but I believe you said null-leaning scum at one point) - this is where I find it a bit hypocritical if you were referring to Carey and Deras as easy targets. Regardless of whether or not you have your vote on experienced players, .it's contradictory. Scum tend to trip over themselves when trying to form a case against a town player (assuming you are scum, GM is town and I'm not misrepping you) - this is what I'm getting at.

Of course. All this hinges on you clarifying who you meant as easy targets.

I'm not sure how you came to Fropome because he's pretty capable from what I've seen.

You seem to have dropped trying to continue your case on me. I say Fropome is inexperienced. That is borne out in his own description of his previous games. You counter that he's capable. He's still a n00b and he's still one of two n00b players that GM went after. I was after experienced players at the time you claimed I was doing the same thing GM was doing and voting her for it.

Your case doesn't hold water. And your vote looks pretty iffy, even though it's me saying it.

[fferyllt]

Town > Mac > Fropome > Deras > Revenus = Carey = ArcAngel > ffer > GM > Scum

ArcAngel looks like terrible town. Deras looks like he's at least trying. Revenus I don't like the playstyle of, but it feels like it's coming from a more townish direction. If Mac and Fropome are scum they are doing an extraordinary job in coming off as genuinely town to me.

GM/ffer cooled down way too easily for me. Way, way too easily. I don't like ffer's unvote based on meta, mainly because I have a strong disdain for any meta beyond the kind that Carey shows. The people in this game are self-aware enough to use the knowledge of their meta to their own advantage, and I feel both of these players have been trying to push their metas at us too much. As it stands now after my thorough re-reading, I'm seeing them very strongly as the scum pair. In case they aren't both scum, I'm definitely leaning more towards GM being scum. A lot of her posts suggest that she feels she knows more than we do. Maybe some of that's due to experience, but it feels like it's more than that. As for specifics, I'll point to the sigbet which is conveniently void if she's scum. I asked for specific terms for an entirely different reason, and managed to wheedle out that her sigbet is effectively a null-proposition when she knows it's wrong. I had assumed she lost if she were scum since she wasn't in the specified set. Just her whole attitude about this topic screamed "I know more than you" as I re-read.

I still don't like Carey's lack of actually playing, but given that his wagon has no traction and I have a stronger scum read now...

VOTE: goodmorning

I'll be sure to ask your permission before I change my mind hereafter.

[goodmorning]

Yeah, so it's been almost a day with just fffffff posting. I would like to hear more from AA9 and Deras, especially as to why they aren't voting. I would like to hear more content from Fro, Carey, and Rev as well, because they've not posted for some time. I have said all there is for me to say on the game as it exists presently.

[Deras]

I was actually waiting for Carey to post some more to get a better feeling on him, as it stands he's the highest (lowest?) on my scumdar right now. Next in line would be you GM but I"m not sure enough to cast my vote on you.

I don't want to put you on L-2 already because in the off chance that you're not scum and they're not already voting you, I wouldn't want them to be able to end the day yet.

As for the others, I don't think any of them merit me voting them yet.

Btw Rev is on V/LA until saturday so I wouldn't expect him to post until then.

[Eye Urn]

After thinking about the situation while at work today (where I do not have Internet access but do have plenty of time to think things over), I have come to an entirely different conclusion and will need another thorough reading to find out exactly what it means. In the meantime,

UNVOTE: goodmorning

[goodmorning]

I was actually waiting for Carey to post some more to get a better feeling on him, as it stands he's the highest (lowest?) on my scumdar right now.

Anything specific, or just the lurking?

[goodmorning]

After thinking about the situation while at work today (where I do not have Internet access but do have plenty of time to think things over), I have come to an entirely different conclusion and will need another thorough reading to find out exactly what it means. In the meantime,

UNVOTE: goodmorning

Interesting. I'm curious as well.

[Deras]

I was actually waiting for Carey to post some more to get a better feeling on him, as it stands he's the highest (lowest?) on my scumdar right now.

Anything specific, or just the lurking?

This goes way beyond lurking imo, he's posted basically zero content, he rarely if ever answers to any questions directed at him and he just posts random stuff half the time. On 232 he even went all defensive about how he won't replace and then on 384 he offers to replace out?

Honestly, I can't make heads or tails out of his erratic behaviour except for one thing: it's not helping us at all. And, if we just ignore the crazy guy, wouldn't that be the best place for scum to hide?

And let send the ball back at you, what do you think of Carey?

[goodmorning]

Well, I've mentioned this before but "erratic" pretty much sums up his meta. I have a light townread on him for the speed of suspicion on him alone, because that hella set me off.

[goodmorning]

I cannot believe I just semi-seriously typed "hella"

brb dying

[fferyllt]

I cannot believe I just semi-seriously typed "hella"

brb dying

So who do you feel is being opportunistic about him?

[ctusz]

Hello! I literally have no idea what to do but this is a Zelda themed game and I am incredibly interested. So I would love my first game to be this one and I hope you all accept me here. This should be fun.