Micro 152 - BSG Mafia (Galactica Survives?)

[fferyllt]

Post 337 actually makes me feel a lot better about buldermar after rereading last night's posts.

[buldermar]

I'm very apprehensive of how quickly we got to L-1 on ffery. The last few pages have been weird honestly and hard for me to read a la ffery's and buldermar's new cases. I like that buldermar at least unvoted whilst not backing down from his position, that makes him seem more town to me than anything else he's done.

Lurker and Nero just seem opportunistic to me, I'd be willing to lynch either of them until they become more open with their reads/reactions to the last couple of pages.

@Sryrana - what made you change your vote so quickly?

@Ffery - I feel like town should fight harder against their own mislynch since you're at least confirmed to yourself, no matter how great your doubts are on another town-looking mislynch. Do you think your lynch would provide the town with the most information?

Never watched BSG so I really don't get the references/significance of claiming Kara, I think that particular point is moot.

I think in general you are right about fighting mislynch. If I am all but certain to be mislynched sooner or later, then sooner may be better, especially if there's something worthwhile to be learned from the bandwagon.

LOL you pretty much confirmed yourself as scum in this post. If you were town and actually considered me scum you'd think that succesfully getting me lynched would close to confirm you as being town. However, if you're scum who pretends to be thinking that I'm scum but actually knows that I'm not you'd make

exactly

this kind of slip, knowing that

even if

you get me lynched, you'll be up next once I flip.

Please attempt to explain yourself out of this one.

VOTE: ff

Sure, but (from hypothetical town fery's viewpoint) you aren't getting lynched unless fery goes first because there isn't enough support for your lynch

You think that she's arguing that she'll be lynched sooner or later because she rules out any scenario in which I am lynched before her? I'm don't think I can buy that.

[buldermar]

I'm very apprehensive of how quickly we got to L-1 on ffery. The last few pages have been weird honestly and hard for me to read a la ffery's and buldermar's new cases. I like that buldermar at least unvoted whilst not backing down from his position, that makes him seem more town to me than anything else he's done.

Lurker and Nero just seem opportunistic to me, I'd be willing to lynch either of them until they become more open with their reads/reactions to the last couple of pages.

@Sryrana - what made you change your vote so quickly?

@Ffery - I feel like town should fight harder against their own mislynch since you're at least confirmed to yourself, no matter how great your doubts are on another town-looking mislynch. Do you think your lynch would provide the town with the most information?

Never watched BSG so I really don't get the references/significance of claiming Kara, I think that particular point is moot.

I think in general you are right about fighting mislynch. If I am all but certain to be mislynched sooner or later, then sooner may be better, especially if there's something worthwhile to be learned from the bandwagon.

LOL you pretty much confirmed yourself as scum in this post. If you were town and actually considered me scum you'd think that succesfully getting me lynched would close to confirm you as being town. However, if you're scum who pretends to be thinking that I'm scum but actually knows that I'm not you'd make

exactly

this kind of slip, knowing that

even if

you get me lynched, you'll be up next once I flip.

Please attempt to explain yourself out of this one.

VOTE: ff

Sure, but (from hypothetical town fery's viewpoint) you aren't getting lynched unless fery goes first because there isn't enough support for your lynch

You think that she's arguing that she'll be lynched sooner or later because she rules out any scenario in which I am lynched before her? I don't think I can buy that.

[buldermar]

orc, could you explain how I'm wrong in 337?

Ahh.

I went back and read that and I can see why you think that's a scum admission.

I didn't show my work. If that gets my lynched then it's my own damn fault and I won't hoot at you in the postgame. When orcinus didn't express any agreement with me that your argument about my role claim was dumb and forced, and that you'd tacitly admitted you thought I was town in your self-vote lecture, I did a mental reset. That's when my read went from scummy to unsure. That motivated my 337 reply, and it motivated my unvote. I wasn't going to leave you at L-2 overnight.

I don't feel like I'm thinking clearly atm. I'll keep this post in mind and try to work backwards and see if it makes sense, but even if it does I'm not sure it will convince me that it isn't just fabricated. Making this for myself as well.

[fferyllt]

buldermar, I am plenty arrogant enough to believe I could either get you lynched today or assure that you're the next lynch after my flip. While convinced of your scumminess I was happy with either outcome but took it as a personal challenge to see if I could get you lynched today.

Without that conviction, it's not going to happen today. And without that conviction, I don't want your lynch to be a foregone conclusion tomorrow.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

I'm very apprehensive of how quickly we got to L-1 on ffery. The last few pages have been weird honestly and hard for me to read a la ffery's and buldermar's new cases. I like that buldermar at least unvoted whilst not backing down from his position, that makes him seem more town to me than anything else he's done.

Lurker and Nero just seem opportunistic to me, I'd be willing to lynch either of them until they become more open with their reads/reactions to the last couple of pages.

@Sryrana - what made you change your vote so quickly?

@Ffery - I feel like town should fight harder against their own mislynch since you're at least confirmed to yourself, no matter how great your doubts are on another town-looking mislynch. Do you think your lynch would provide the town with the most information?

Never watched BSG so I really don't get the references/significance of claiming Kara, I think that particular point is moot.

I think in general you are right about fighting mislynch. If I am all but certain to be mislynched sooner or later, then sooner may be better, especially if there's something worthwhile to be learned from the bandwagon.

LOL you pretty much confirmed yourself as scum in this post. If you were town and actually considered me scum you'd think that succesfully getting me lynched would close to confirm you as being town. However, if you're scum who pretends to be thinking that I'm scum but actually knows that I'm not you'd make

exactly

this kind of slip, knowing that

even if

you get me lynched, you'll be up next once I flip.

Please attempt to explain yourself out of this one.

VOTE: ff

Sure, but (from hypothetical town fery's viewpoint) you aren't getting lynched unless fery goes first because there isn't enough support for your lynch

You think that she's arguing that she'll be lynched sooner or later because she rules out any scenario in which I am lynched before her? I don't think I can buy that.

I'm assuming that fery's "certain to be lynched" mentality, which she has expressed numerous times, is supported by meta.

Pedit: I'm so confused.

[buldermar]

VOTE: Nero

Can the three of us truce for the remainder of the day

What in particular made you change your opinion of ff? It feels like you're seing something that I don't because to me she looks more scummy than before especially because of all the self-meta'ing stuff that's supposed to indicate her being town.

[buldermar]

I mean, as much as I would hate to be driving myself out of a correct lynch right now, it would fucking suck if the three of us were town and we lost to like lurker/deltabacon

Buldemar, thoughts?

Idk I'd hate to lose to ff as well. Who would be a logical partner for Nero if we go with the hypothesis of the three of us being town?

[orcinus_theoriginal]

VOTE: Nero

Can the three of us truce for the remainder of the day

What in particular made you change your opinion of ff? It feels like you're seing something that I don't because to me she looks more scummy than before especially because of all the self-meta'ing stuff that's supposed to indicate her being town.

Paranoia and the realization that we can't win this game if we don't lynch lurkers

Basically we switched positions

I didn't realize before today just how bad the players aside from the three of us are. If we keep fery around for another day or two, we can get a better and more accurate read. The same cannot be said for the lurkers.

Even if fery is scum, we know literally squat about her partners because nobody is giving enough information to analyze. I'm thinking that we'll learn more about people's alignments if fery were scum from fery than from the people themselves.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

I mean, as much as I would hate to be driving myself out of a correct lynch right now, it would fucking suck if the three of us were town and we lost to like lurker/deltabacon

Buldemar, thoughts?

Idk I'd hate to lose to ff as well. Who would be a logical partner for Nero if we go with the hypothesis of the three of us being town?

Really?

You're assuming I'm getting anything other than trolls from Nero's posting?

His posting is so far alignment null and a barren wasteland where usable information is concerned. Completely.

But he seems to be trying more than Lurker so maybe...

[buldermar]

Post 337 actually makes me feel a lot better about buldermar after rereading last night's posts.

Why? I really feel like I'm lacking a believeable explanation for your sudden change in opinion of me that isn't scum-driven.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

VOTE: Lurker

I don't understand why we've been giving Nero more pressure than this guy

[fferyllt]

This is so frustrating, but it's also fun because it's become so unpredictable. First, a town read on orcinus and absolutely no way to find common ground for cooperation. Now, you, buldermar. Not nearly as strong a read, but still, brick wall. And mostly my fault that the wall exists in both cases.

Your meta on me is recent and comes from a point in my mafia career where playing with the same players game after game for literally years. I haven't had to spend this much skull sweat in figuring players out in a long time.

[fferyllt]

Post 337 actually makes me feel a lot better about buldermar after rereading last night's posts.

Why? I really feel like I'm lacking a believeable explanation for your sudden change in opinion of me that isn't scum-driven.

Call it an intuitive leap. I've done my best to explain what was an essentially a dawning, stomach-flipping realization that I could be wrong, mostly based on HOW YOU REACTED to my posts.

[buldermar]

buldermar, I am plenty arrogant enough to believe I could either get you lynched today or assure that you're the next lynch after my flip. While convinced of your scumminess I was happy with either outcome but took it as a personal challenge to see if I could get you lynched today.

Without that conviction, it's not going to happen today. And without that conviction, I don't want your lynch to be a foregone conclusion tomorrow.

Tell me why this wouldn't be how you'd portrait things as well as a scum who just realized that she was about to get lynched and therefore had to direct attention elsewhere in order to safe herself? I'm not going to blindly trust that you could have gotten me lynched had you wanted to.

[buldermar]

I'm very apprehensive of how quickly we got to L-1 on ffery. The last few pages have been weird honestly and hard for me to read a la ffery's and buldermar's new cases. I like that buldermar at least unvoted whilst not backing down from his position, that makes him seem more town to me than anything else he's done.

Lurker and Nero just seem opportunistic to me, I'd be willing to lynch either of them until they become more open with their reads/reactions to the last couple of pages.

@Sryrana - what made you change your vote so quickly?

@Ffery - I feel like town should fight harder against their own mislynch since you're at least confirmed to yourself, no matter how great your doubts are on another town-looking mislynch. Do you think your lynch would provide the town with the most information?

Never watched BSG so I really don't get the references/significance of claiming Kara, I think that particular point is moot.

I think in general you are right about fighting mislynch. If I am all but certain to be mislynched sooner or later, then sooner may be better, especially if there's something worthwhile to be learned from the bandwagon.

LOL you pretty much confirmed yourself as scum in this post. If you were town and actually considered me scum you'd think that succesfully getting me lynched would close to confirm you as being town. However, if you're scum who pretends to be thinking that I'm scum but actually knows that I'm not you'd make

exactly

this kind of slip, knowing that

even if

you get me lynched, you'll be up next once I flip.

Please attempt to explain yourself out of this one.

VOTE: ff

Sure, but (from hypothetical town fery's viewpoint) you aren't getting lynched unless fery goes first because there isn't enough support for your lynch

You think that she's arguing that she'll be lynched sooner or later because she rules out any scenario in which I am lynched before her? I don't think I can buy that.

I'm assuming that fery's "certain to be lynched" mentality, which she has expressed numerous times, is supported by meta.

Pedit: I'm so confused.

I've seen her do the raise-white-flag stunt before, but this looked more like a slip where she forgot that she's supposed to not know that i will flip town as scum.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Post 337 actually makes me feel a lot better about buldermar after rereading last night's posts.

Why? I really feel like I'm lacking a believeable explanation for your sudden change in opinion of me that isn't scum-driven.

Actually I find her reads being fluid town rather than scum because it shows she's legitimately trying to scumhunt

Just trust me in leaving her alive for us to get a better read on her

I originally didn't care because I thought fery was obvscum, but she's lost that feel. Still scum but not as strong. Surprisingly I find her flop on you townie. 369 and 379 look like a town mindset. But it doesn't matter--I feel like 383 encapsulates my thoughts well at this stage

The thing that's sticking out to me right now is her flail because I don't know which way that points.

[buldermar]

VOTE: Nero

Can the three of us truce for the remainder of the day

What in particular made you change your opinion of ff? It feels like you're seing something that I don't because to me she looks more scummy than before especially because of all the self-meta'ing stuff that's supposed to indicate her being town.

Paranoia and the realization that we can't win this game if we don't lynch lurkers

Basically we switched positions

I didn't realize before today just how bad the players aside from the three of us are. If we keep fery around for another day or two, we can get a better and more accurate read. The same cannot be said for the lurkers.

Even if fery is scum, we know literally squat about her partners because nobody is giving enough information to analyze. I'm thinking that we'll learn more about people's alignments if fery were scum from fery than from the people themselves.

I'm kind of assuming that she will not be giving away anything about her partners. From what I know her scum game isn't weak because she's bad per se, but because she's good as town.

[fferyllt]

I agree that if I were scum you would have to look hard to find what you guys call associative tells. Though they would probably be there.

[buldermar]

I mean, as much as I would hate to be driving myself out of a correct lynch right now, it would fucking suck if the three of us were town and we lost to like lurker/deltabacon

Buldemar, thoughts?

Idk I'd hate to lose to ff as well. Who would be a logical partner for Nero if we go with the hypothesis of the three of us being town?

Really?

You're assuming I'm getting anything other than trolls from Nero's posting?

His posting is so far alignment null and a barren wasteland where usable information is concerned. Completely.

But he seems to be trying more than Lurker so maybe...

Well ff did point out something that would indicate Nero being scum, and I think he's been pretty obstructive with his trolling - that's different from just lurking and never posting in my opinion.

[buldermar]

Post 337 actually makes me feel a lot better about buldermar after rereading last night's posts.

Why? I really feel like I'm lacking a believeable explanation for your sudden change in opinion of me that isn't scum-driven.

Actually I find her reads being fluid town rather than scum because it shows she's legitimately trying to scumhunt

Just trust me in leaving her alive for us to get a better read on her

I originally didn't care because I thought fery was obvscum, but she's lost that feel. Still scum but not as strong. Surprisingly I find her flop on you townie. 369 and 379 look like a town mindset. But it doesn't matter--I feel like 383 encapsulates my thoughts well at this stage

The thing that's sticking out to me right now is her flail because I don't know which way that points.

I think I'm going to have to reread the entire thread but when my mind is fresh. I'll unvote for now.

UNVOTE:

Just to avoid confusion: I still have a scum read on her.

[fferyllt]

buldermar, I am plenty arrogant enough to believe I could either get you lynched today or assure that you're the next lynch after my flip. While convinced of your scumminess I was happy with either outcome but took it as a personal challenge to see if I could get you lynched today.

Without that conviction, it's not going to happen today. And without that conviction, I don't want your lynch to be a foregone conclusion tomorrow.

Tell me why this wouldn't be how you'd portrait things as well as a scum who just realized that she was about to get lynched and therefore had to direct attention elsewhere in order to safe herself? I'm not going to blindly trust that you could have gotten me lynched had you wanted to.

Because I still think I could get you lynched if I tried hard enough. I think that coming from where I was yesterday, it would be easier as scum to stay the course on you than to switch to one of the lurkers/content-free posters. To my mind when scum, going for an "easy" target when there's a credible "tough" target it almost always looks scummy. Giving up on getting you lynched is not what I would have done if my primary motivation was to avoid lynch myself.

You are going to continue to handwave this as "yabbut you would say the same thing as scum." And I'm not going to continue to indulge you. As scum I struggle to find what my town motivation would likely be in a given circumstance. As town, I don't even think about it unless someone starts with "yabbut you would say the same thing as scum".

[buldermar]

buldermar, I am plenty arrogant enough to believe I could either get you lynched today or assure that you're the next lynch after my flip. While convinced of your scumminess I was happy with either outcome but took it as a personal challenge to see if I could get you lynched today.

Without that conviction, it's not going to happen today. And without that conviction, I don't want your lynch to be a foregone conclusion tomorrow.

Tell me why this wouldn't be how you'd portrait things as well as a scum who just realized that she was about to get lynched and therefore had to direct attention elsewhere in order to safe herself? I'm not going to blindly trust that you could have gotten me lynched had you wanted to.

Because I still think I could get you lynched if I tried hard enough. I think that coming from where I was yesterday, it would be easier as scum to stay the course on you than to switch to one of the lurkers/content-free posters. To my mind when scum, going for an "easy" target when there's a credible "tough" target it almost always looks scummy. Giving up on getting you lynched is not what I would have done if my primary motivation was to avoid lynch myself.

You are going to continue to handwave this as "yabbut you would say the same thing as scum." And I'm not going to continue to indulge you. As scum I struggle to find what my town motivation would likely be in a given circumstance. As town, I don't even think about it unless someone starts with "yabbut you would say the same thing as scum".

I don't think I can answer anything to this that isn't repetitive.

[fferyllt]

So then what?

I'm resigned to being today's lynch. I won't continue to press for a lynch I'm not sure about to get another day in the game. I'd still like to do what I can before I'm out to help find scum.

[fferyllt]

VOTE: Lurker

I don't understand why we've been giving Nero more pressure than this guy

Because he's more under the radar? Is there something overtly scummy he's done that Nero hasn't?