Micro 152 - BSG Mafia (Galactica Survives?)

[fferyllt]

Townish

orcinus

Unsure:

pitoli
buldermar
SafetyDance
Syryana

Unsure leaning scum

Lurker
Deltabacon

Scummy:

Nero

Probably sheer stubbornness at this point not moving buldermar to the Town list. I've been replying to him like his posts are coming from a town orientation since my first post of the day.

The difference between the two bottom lists is so negligible they could be combined without losing anything meaningful.

[fferyllt]

"day" = calendar day, not game day. just in case that's not obvious.

[AngryPidgeon]

Vote Count 1.11

buldermar [2/5] - Syryana, Lurker
fferyllt [2/5] - Deltabacon, Nero
pitoli [1/5] - SafetyDance
Nero [1/5] - fferyllt
Lurker [1/5] - orcinus_theoriginal

Pacifists (Not Voting): pitoli, buldermar

Deadline: April 16th at Noon (GMT-8)

(expired on 2013-04-16 12:00:00)

Mod Notes:

*Deltabacon is V/LA through the 7th
*SD, where you at >.<

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Wait

How about

VOTE: Syryana

I really don't want to lynch ff today buldermar but listen

If ff is scum, syryana is likely to be a buddy because of that awkward interaction

Syryana also did that thin where he voted you sheeping ff

If ff is scum, so is syryana (probs). But syr is also scummy independent of

This is good

[fferyllt]

Wait

How about

VOTE: Syryana

I really don't want to lynch ff today buldermar but listen

If ff is scum, syryana is likely to be a buddy because of that awkward interaction

Syryana also did that thin where he voted you sheeping ff

If ff is scum, so is syryana (probs). But syr is also scummy independent of

This is good

You thought syryana's vote on me as RVS ended was scummy also.

I think I can get behind this. I think I like it better than a Lurker lynch.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Yeah the entire interaction just seems really off

Gogogo

[fferyllt]

My apologies for my silence, I've been somewhat busier than expected this week.
UNVOTE: VOTE: Pitoli

I agree with orcinus and Sotty that Pitoli's #36 was terrible, fluffy, and irrelevant. There's plenty to comment on and she ignored all of it.

Well no FF did it last game when she was obvtown and I think it's townie that she's willing to uphold that belief despite whatever flak she might get for it.

I disagree with this being a towntell. Upholding one's beliefs is all well and good but I'm not inclined to give her a townread for it. I don't see any particular reason why she wouldn't refuse to give meta as scum, particularly since she's historically refused as town (according to you).

If this was a bigger game I would love to policy lynch Nero.

Very much this. My brief review of his last newbie game revealed him to be a terrible troll.

I was looking for a game where the two of you played. Reading the recent newibie game I see what you mean about unsubstantial. I'd say obfuscatory though trolly works, too. he was town in that game.

No. He was a Mafia Goon, if we're reading the same game. Newbie 1342.

Main (abbreviated) thoughts atm: Pitoli is lurky and fluffy, Nero is troll-y. Will be looking into fferyllt more also, some of her actions just seem off to me.

Pedit:

also let me tell everyone right now that i don't intend to write a colossal amount explaining why i'm town and why the person i'm voting is mafia. just trust me, i'm usually right.

You were scum in that game and I'm thinking you're scum in this one too.

Syryana: why don't you?

A few reasons. First, like Sotty said, this is a 9P game. We don't have a lot of room for mislynches. Second, I like Pitoli better for a lynch at the moment. Third, I have a gut feeling fferyl might be scum also thanks to some inconsistencies (need to investigate) earlier, so I'm not going for a PL on Nero when we might catch some actual scum.

If Pitoli comes back and gives me reason to not vote her anymore and my investigations on fferyl come to naught, then I'll consider a PL on Nero.

My, this game exploded since yesterday. First off:
UNVOTE:

I like Pitoli's responses because they seem genuine.

Investigation on FF: (I hate abbreviating to FF but I can't remember how to spell the damn thing every time)
I first got an off feeling on FF on Page 2. She got an incredibly fast town read on orcinus (in #21) then followed that up by sheeping orcinus on me (#29). The reason orcinus threw my name out there was clearly arbitrary (he even admitted to that later, #40) and she sheeps him anyways. Someone kindly correct me if I'm off-base here, but I don't see the town motivation in that. Furthermore, a cursory inspection of her meta along with analysis of her play here has proved one thing: Do not, under any circumstances, underestimate this chick. She is not the type to do something without a reason, so there's a reason behind her early orc sheep. I can't think of any town reasons why she'd do this, perhaps someone can enlighten me later.

Another point against FF was pointed out by orcinus in #81. She seems to be catching on to minor inconsistencies (e.g. orcinus contradicting his intentions w.r.t. Nero, pitoli getting flak but not buldermar, etc.). Now, IMO latching onto contradictions is not itself a scumtell, but latching onto minor contradictions that have reasonably apparent explanations is. For example, she complains that people are getting onto pitoli but not buldermar (#86), which has the immediately obvious explanation of "buldermar hasn't done anything questionable and pitoli has" (#88). Why is FF latching onto these minor things? Again, a situation arises where I can't think of a town motivation for FF's actions.

Moving onward. Not a whole lot of relevance from FF until we get to the 150's range (gods, orcinus and buldermar are windy bastards), where we have this post:

I expect to get lynched early as town more than is my "normal" at MS, in part because my play style evolved elsewhere and it's going to change as I get used to this site. changes are almost always suspicious in mafia. I think my insistence on earning my reputation here instead of importing it from elsewhere is also going to cause trouble, but I'm ok with that.

The above bothers the hell out of me. Out of all the games I've played, never once have I seen self-meta come from a townie. I read the above as an excuse to why FF's play is different now than it was in prior games (she essentially tells us meta-ing her is meaningless, through self-meta). Townies fight lynches to the death, they don't just go "Oh well, my playstyle is changing, so I'll probably be lynched early a lot now, whatever". Even if a mislynch occurs, the more interactions that person had before death gives the remaining town clues as to whom to lynch next. This passive "I'm gonna die, whatever" is very anti-town.

A great deal of her following "content" involves discussing other completed games. I treated this as filler. However, one point that stuck out for me is that FF justified her townread on orc by way of her impressions gathered from his play in a prior game (#183). I think that's a load of crock. I don't care if you've played 1 game with a person or a thousand; you don't get a townread that fast. If you assume alignment based off what you've seen from someone in a prior game, you're being very sloppy with your reads. Meta is a nice bonus, certainly. Early townreads based purely off meta are unacceptable.

Most of the rest of her stuff involves Nero and buldermar. The Nero vote and unvote (#230 and #235) seems manufactured. Nero's been trolling the entire game (and indeed, the entire time he's been on MS) and now she takes him seriously? Then decides to unvote 5 posts later due to a possible buldermar conspiracy theory? What?

In short, she's inconsistent and anti-town. Looking for possible partners.
VOTE: fferyllt

He had a semi-reasonable case on me. (I could be a little biased about how reasonable). I didn't see any point in attempting a rebuttal because "I don't play that way when scum" is obviously not a rebuttal especially with a sample size of one scum game available to most players. I let bulder pull me in because his sample size is larger and he really ought to be able to extrapolate from the additional data points.

Kara Thrace, the superstar Viper pilot who died, came back, led the fleet to Earth and killed countless Cylons is a vanilla townie? Pshaw. Vote stands.

I expected this. Like I said, I was surprised this character is vanilla when I saw my role PM.

VOTE: buldermar

The vote itself came after my impassioned arguments about the stupidity of scum choosing a safeclaim like Kara Thrace and not claiming a power role to go with. (and my sub-argument that I'm not that stupid.)

That argument fell on otherwise deaf ears as far as I can tell, unless Lurker also bought it.

orcinus...for the sake of argument assume that both my bandwagon and buldermar's are town wagons. What was the advantage of choosing to vote buldermar over me?

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Right but why would he vote buldermar and switch off you?

I thought the entire argument about role names was stupid and intentionally avoided it

I can't make that assumption. If I did, I would know exactly who the scum was so the entire exercise is a bit pointless

[fferyllt]

Right but why would he vote buldermar and switch off you?

I thought the entire argument about role names was stupid and intentionally avoided it

I can't make that assumption. If I did, I would know exactly who the scum was so the entire exercise is a bit pointless

Ok, but I know one piece of that puzzle. So, I'm trying to see the profit in voting buldermar instead of me.

A Syryana lynch argument has to account for not putting a vote on the apparently mortally wounded townie wagon. I can see a possible argument for it, but it's pretty deep in my own self-referentiality.

[buldermar]

Wait

How about

VOTE: Syryana

I really don't want to lynch ff today buldermar but listen

If ff is scum, syryana is likely to be a buddy because of that awkward interaction

Syryana also did that thin where he voted you sheeping ff

If ff is scum, so is syryana (probs). But syr is also scummy independent of

This is good

I'll have a look.

[buldermar]

If Buldermar continues to lurk, then we can revisit.

Hey look who talks about lurking, lol.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Look on fery's side too

[buldermar]

Kara Thrace, the superstar Viper pilot who died, came back, led the fleet to Earth and killed countless Cylons is a vanilla townie? Pshaw.

Vote stands.

In the interests of giving you last interactions with people

:
UNVOTE:

I don't trust Nero enough to leave you at L-1.

I'll put my vote back if your final interactions don't change my mind.

VOTE: buldermar

I think I can settle for this if we're not lynching ff, but I'd still prefer ff over anyone else in this game.

[buldermar]

Look on fery's side too

Anything in particular, or should I reread all?

[buldermar]

I expected this. Like I said, I was surprised this character is vanilla when I saw my role PM.

Many mods shuffle all roles with flavors so that flavor knowledge does not become advantageous.

[fferyllt]

Right but why would he vote buldermar and switch off you?

I thought the entire argument about role names was stupid and intentionally avoided it

I can't make that assumption. If I did, I would know exactly who the scum was so the entire exercise is a bit pointless

Ok, but I know one piece of that puzzle. So, I'm trying to see the profit in voting buldermar instead of me.

A Syryana lynch argument has to account for not putting a vote on the apparently mortally wounded townie wagon. I can see a possible argument for it, but it's pretty deep in my own self-referentiality.

Looks like I have to connect the dots. here it is

If I all but singlenhandedly build a case and argue convincingly enough to get bulder lynched today and he flips town, who gets lynched tomorrow?

If bulder joins a bandwagon that has a ton of support already and gets me lynched today and I flip town, who gets lynched tomorrow?

If bulder is town, then his mislynch today would almost guarantee my day 2 mislynch as well.

It doesn't work the same way with as much certainty if I'm lynched today and flip town, though I was hoping it would be a slamdunk when I felt sure buldermar was scum.

[buldermar]

That argument fell on otherwise deaf ears as far as I can tell, unless Lurker also bought it.

I read your argument and thought it to be absurd and backwards - and I still do.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

So if you get enough people to follow you, and you have my cardflip to digest, then who of the players who currently have their votes on me will you think are scum?

With nothing more than what's currently in the thread, I'd have to choose Sotty.

Syrana. Since he tried to cover it up with a pretty bullshit reason. Everyone else at least was pretty open that this was a RVS wagon

Siyrana it is.

VOTE: Syrana

Lol hey cool look at that.

I would've called for a PL right out of a gate is what I meant.

This fixation on small details doesn't seem like scumhunting. What exactly are you doing right now ff and what do you hope to get out of this conversation?

I would love to put FF at L-1 right now but I'm afraid of an unpredictable idiot named Nero.

Inconsistencies grab my attention.

I hope to figure some people out, though I usually better on more sleep. I woke up and got back into this thread around 4 am my time. It's 6 am now. Coffee would probably help.

I liked Syryana's last post.

Quickly (it's 2:30 am), the vote on syryana (we've been though this skipping that)

If ff liked syryana's last post, why did she refer to him as null in all future posts

[orcinus_theoriginal]

In the interests of giving you last interactions with people:
UNVOTE:

I don't trust Nero enough to leave you at L-1. I'll put my vote back if your final interactions don't change my mind.

VOTE: buldermar

I still don't understand why

[fferyllt]

So if you get enough people to follow you, and you have my cardflip to digest, then who of the players who currently have their votes on me will you think are scum?

With nothing more than what's currently in the thread, I'd have to choose Sotty.

Syrana. Since he tried to cover it up with a pretty bullshit reason. Everyone else at least was pretty open that this was a RVS wagon

Siyrana it is.

VOTE: Syrana

Lol hey cool look at that.

I would've called for a PL right out of a gate is what I meant.

This fixation on small details doesn't seem like scumhunting. What exactly are you doing right now ff and what do you hope to get out of this conversation?

I would love to put FF at L-1 right now but I'm afraid of an unpredictable idiot named Nero.

Inconsistencies grab my attention.

I hope to figure some people out, though I usually better on more sleep. I woke up and got back into this thread around 4 am my time. It's 6 am now. Coffee would probably help.

I liked Syryana's last post.

Quickly (it's 2:30 am), the vote on syryana (we've been though this skipping that)

If ff liked syryana's last post, why did she refer to him as null in all future posts

can I answer that?

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Lol hey cool look at that.

I would've called for a PL right out of a gate is what I meant.

This fixation on small details doesn't seem like scumhunting. What exactly are you doing right now ff and what do you hope to get out of this conversation?

I would love to put FF at L-1 right now but I'm afraid of an unpredictable idiot named Nero.

Inconsistencies grab my attention.

I hope to figure some people out, though I usually better on more sleep. I woke up and got back into this thread around 4 am my time. It's 6 am now. Coffee would probably help.

I liked Syryana's last post.

Do you think anything about Syryana specifically writing out "Mafia Goon" as opposed to just saying "scum"? I have some thoughts about it, but I'd like to hear yours first.

He's new to the site I think but obviously has mafia experience from his posts.

Hm. Remembering my first game here, I was a lot more careful of local terminology than I've been in later games. I was scum, and that played into my punctiliousness.

Seems wishy washy (weak point but still)

Go ahead fery

[buldermar]

Right but why would he vote buldermar and switch off you?

I thought the entire argument about role names was stupid and intentionally avoided it

I can't make that assumption. If I did, I would know exactly who the scum was so the entire exercise is a bit pointless

Ok, but I know one piece of that puzzle. So, I'm trying to see the profit in voting buldermar instead of me.

A Syryana lynch argument has to account for not putting a vote on the apparently mortally wounded townie wagon. I can see a possible argument for it, but it's pretty deep in my own self-referentiality.

Looks like I have to connect the dots. here it is

If I all but singlenhandedly build a case and argue convincingly enough to get bulder lynched today and he flips town, who gets lynched tomorrow?

If bulder joins a bandwagon that has a ton of support already and gets me lynched today and I flip town, who gets lynched tomorrow?

If bulder is town, then his mislynch today would almost guarantee my day 2 mislynch as well.

It doesn't work the same way with as much certainty if I'm lynched today and flip town, though I was hoping it would be a slamdunk when I felt sure buldermar was scum.

Maybe he thought about all of that... or maybe he just logged on, noticed that nobody gave a damn about him lurking the crap out of this game, and dropped a vote randomly on one of the active wagons without even considering what he had previously been posting. Is that really so unlikely?

[orcinus_theoriginal]

You thought syryana's vote on me as RVS ended was scummy also.

Wait no

I misread this the first time

It was a random name I threw out which I later assumed you sheeped for reaction/pressure. I thought your syr vote was scummy. I didn't have as much a problem with his vote on you

[buldermar]

So if you get enough people to follow you, and you have my cardflip to digest, then who of the players who currently have their votes on me will you think are scum?

With nothing more than what's currently in the thread, I'd have to choose Sotty.

Syrana. Since he tried to cover it up with a pretty bullshit reason. Everyone else at least was pretty open that this was a RVS wagon

Siyrana it is.

VOTE: Syrana

Lol hey cool look at that.

I would've called for a PL right out of a gate is what I meant.

This fixation on small details doesn't seem like scumhunting. What exactly are you doing right now ff and what do you hope to get out of this conversation?

I would love to put FF at L-1 right now but I'm afraid of an unpredictable idiot named Nero.

Inconsistencies grab my attention.

I hope to figure some people out, though I usually better on more sleep. I woke up and got back into this thread around 4 am my time. It's 6 am now. Coffee would probably help.

I liked Syryana's last post.

Quickly (it's 2:30 am), the vote on syryana (we've been though this skipping that)

If ff liked syryana's last post, why did she refer to him as null in all future posts

Maybe because town-ff thought that 88 and 93 looks kinda bad in the context of 79?

[fferyllt]

Right but why would he vote buldermar and switch off you?

I thought the entire argument about role names was stupid and intentionally avoided it

I can't make that assumption. If I did, I would know exactly who the scum was so the entire exercise is a bit pointless

Ok, but I know one piece of that puzzle. So, I'm trying to see the profit in voting buldermar instead of me.

A Syryana lynch argument has to account for not putting a vote on the apparently mortally wounded townie wagon. I can see a possible argument for it, but it's pretty deep in my own self-referentiality.

Looks like I have to connect the dots. here it is

If I all but singlenhandedly build a case and argue convincingly enough to get bulder lynched today and he flips town, who gets lynched tomorrow?

If bulder joins a bandwagon that has a ton of support already and gets me lynched today and I flip town, who gets lynched tomorrow?

If bulder is town, then his mislynch today would almost guarantee my day 2 mislynch as well.

It doesn't work the same way with as much certainty if I'm lynched today and flip town, though I was hoping it would be a slamdunk when I felt sure buldermar was scum.

Maybe he thought about all of that... or maybe he just logged on, noticed that nobody gave a damn about him lurking the crap out of this game, and dropped a vote randomly on one of the active wagons without even considering what he had previously been posting. Is that really so unlikely?

That's totally outside my mafia mindset. Maybe not unlikely for some players.