Open 480 - C9++ Game Over!

[Thurhame]

Oh, I forgot about Beli's inno on safety.

[Thurhame]

The original probabilities of the setups are

• CVMMBTT: 2400
• CCCMMBT: 1080
• CCCVMMB: 216

(out of 1280000000).

[Thurhame]

I think the actual probability of HD being scum is much lower, given his reaction to Safety.

[Cheery Dog]

ALSO CHEERY BELI GET OFF OF NO LYNCH WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU GUYS DOING

No lynch is best preformed when you're not giving scum more information :/

[Belisarius]

I think the scum already have all of the information they need; we don't.

[Thurhame]

No Lynch is useless at this point. We know HD is almost certainly non-Mafia; even if he is the SK we can't lynch him. Given that, he's pretty much guaranteed to be tonight's death. So, MyLo or LyLo doesn't matter; we have a lynch pool of 5 either way.

We've gained as much information as we can from claims and setup; it's time to go back to old-fashioned scumhunting.
VOTE: Belisarius

[Thurhame]

The original probabilities of the setups are

• CVMMBTT: 2400
• CCCMMBT: 1080
• CCCVMMB: 216

(out of 1280000000).

I made a mistake here. The actual numbers are

• CVMMBTT: 3,024,000
• CCCMMBT: 453,600
• CCCVMMB: 90,720

(out of 1,280,000,000).

This is still not the primary reason I'm voting Beli.

[Gammagooey]

Day 4- Votecount #26

No Lynch (1) Cheery Dog
Belisarius (1) Thurhame
ac1983fan (0)
Cheery Dog (0)
Human Destroyer(0)
implosion (0)
Thurhame(0)
Not Voting: ac1983fan, Belisarius, Human Destroyer, implosion

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline: April 20th at 6:00pm EST

[Belisarius]

@Mod

: You missed Thurhame's vote on me.

Fixed

[Thurhame]

Where is everyone?

Beli needs rope. The feel I get from him is pretty much identical to my attitude in my first Scum game. The lack of scumhunting, the passive voting (including today's No Lynch vote and subsequent unvote when pressured), and 538.

[Belisarius]

Pressured? I unvoted because I still trust ac for now and want to give him a chance to do...whatever the hell it is he was planning on doing.

There was no pressure present.

[Cheery Dog]

Beli needs rope. The feel I get from him is pretty much identical to my attitude in my first Scum game. The lack of scumhunting, the passive voting (including today's No Lynch vote and subsequent unvote when pressured), and 538.

That vote of me day 2 you just linked still looks horrible.
Pity yesterday happened so stupid and fast, but it would be nice to know where beli's current reads etc are.
There's still huge problems with that day 2 play, let alone the fact one of 2 people on his PoE list that can be put there due to town hunting flipped scum that day. yeah I guess I can get behind the beli lynch still., though I still think no lynch is the best option today. Scum are practically forced to kill hd and this should prove whether he is an sk or not.
If he dies then the flip confirms him.
If he doesn't then I guess it could be scum playing tricks, or he is a bulletproof sk.

[implosion]

we should probably nolynch but my motivation for this game exploded into tiny bits when popc flipped town since you know lying town

[Thurhame]

No Lynch will not help us in any way. I just want to get this over with. Vote the scum and win.

[implosion]

Yes, yes it will. It gives us information in who dies, and in a situation like this, just the fact of someone dying on its own is beneficial. I've played in similar endgames.

[Thurhame]

How?

[Human Destroyer]

I agree with implosion.

If this is to be my last day in this game, Thurhame is scum pushing a mislynch in LYLO and Belisarius is town.

VOTE: No Lynch

[Human Destroyer]

*MYLO

[Belisarius]

So that's four in favour of a no lynch, 1 against, and 1 abstention: ac1983fan.

What's your plan, 'fan?

((Yes I've been wanting to say that almost all game))

[implosion]

How?

It gives us information in who dies, and in a situation like this, just the fact of someone dying on its own is beneficial. I've played in similar endgames.

To elaborate slightly: in a situation where no one is exempt from suspicion, eliminating any potential suspect is a boon. I can tell from experience that this is probably such a situation.

[Gammagooey]

Votecount #27

No Lynch (2) Cheery Dog, Human Destroyer
Belisarius (1) Thurhame
ac1983fan (0)
Cheery Dog (0)
Human Destroyer(0)
implosion (0)
Thurhame(0)
Not Voting: ac1983fan, Belisarius, implosion

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch! (or no lynch)

Deadline: April 20th at 6:00pm EST

Prodding ac1983fan.

[Thurhame]

To elaborate slightly: in a situation where no one is exempt from suspicion, eliminating any potential suspect is a boon. I can tell from experience that this is probably such a situation.

Hello? Human Destroyer is exempt from suspicion? He is not a potential Mafia suspect? Sure, there's a chance he could be SK, but we can't lynch that anyway.

[Thurhame]

...except that if he's SK, it proves Beli's innocence. *bangs head on wall* I am an idiot.

VOTE: No Lynch

[ac1983fan]

Been sick and busy. My reaction to beli and Cheery's initial votes for NL was mostly because i felt it would be foolish to rush into the end of the day without at least considering other courses of action. With that being said, I don't see much other course of action. VOTE: No Lynch

[Thurhame]

I believe that's hammer.