Newbie 1345: Mafia in a Bind (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 3.05

Mac (1) - NicCage
NicCage (1) - Mac

Not Voting (3) - Didi, frog, Xiao Long

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.

The deadline is Tuesday, April 23, 2013, at 5:40 PM EDT (UTC-4).

[NicCage]

If I'm scum with Mac then why am I pushing him so hard?

[Xiao Long]

To throw us off so that if we lynch Mac, we won't look your way and we can win. It's actually a clever plan, and I wouldn't put it passed you. Y'know, if you're scum. ;D

[Xiao Long]

Er, we won't look your way and YOU can win... damn quicklunch typo syndrome. =P

[frog]

Incidentally that did happen in my 2nd newbie game, scum tunnelled each other and town thought one was confirmed after the other flipped scum.

[frog]

ISO of NicCage's slot:
Fsnake starts off the game, is immediately cautious when Voodoo's at L-2. Asks some good questions and looks like a genuine newbie (see #58). Posts a list of reads and is generally helpful, only real gripe is that he seems to care a lot about other people's opinions before putting his own through, like he's looking for backup. He replaces out after an exchange with Xiao. He looks towny to me.
Spadille, less so. His only three posts are attacks on Xiao, and he only posts comments 'interesting reaction', 'Pontius Pilate', etc, and does little to explain why the actions are scummy. His attack seems unfocussed and I can't say I like his style. Looks very scummy.
NicCage enters and tries to stop Mutley's trolling and break up the fight between him and Xiao. He posts a few reads and does some analysis. Post 398 is a bit scummy since he switches his vote around for little reason, and when he's not being a bit lurkerish he posts well and asks good questions (look at 359, 449, 451, and more) but at times he just seems to go with the flow and is a bit noncommital (lots of null reads, null comments). He posts little during D2 and D3's vote is the epitome of scumminess. He doesn't interact much with anybody, really, though until today he hadn't conversed with Mac at all; this leads me to believe they could be scumbuddies who tried to distance themselves earlier but are now trying to lynch each other so one appears conftown. I feel like he's answered scrutiny better than Mac but that doesn't change the fact that his D3 play and earlier lurkiness and noncommitance makes him scummy.

I think NicCage is scum, and he and Mac could feasibly be scumbuddies.

[Equinox]

Happy birthday, Xiao Long!

Didi has been prodded.

[Xiao Long]

lol, okay, I don't know why it's saying today is my birthday. My birthday is in October, haha. I even checked my User CP to make sure I had that set to my bday and I do. xD

[NicCage]

Real life is kicking my ass right now. Hopefully ISOs tomorrow, friday evening for sure.

[Didi]

I've been prodded. Haven't been posting much because I can't fucking choose between Nic and Mac. I should do my own ISOs of them (and the others too I suppose), but ugh, I'm pretty busy irl atm, it's exam period so yeah.

[frog]

Prod dodging. Thoughts on Xiao and Didi will come later.

[Equinox]

Mac has been prodded.

Let's step up the activity, folks.

[frog]

Didi's ISO:
Starts off by making two 'random' votes and comes under early pressure from Xeg and deals with it oddly, OMGUSing in 56. Scumhunting starts at around that point and gets progressively better, upon joining the Mutley wagon he seems a bit scummy due to post 124 and the exchange after that is odd too, the unvote looks a little hasty. I am inclined to believe post 214 though as Didi had been trying to scumhunt. Post 75 in particular comes across as very town, where he concedes that votes change and shows that he's willing to stand his ground. Asks some good questions, answers most of not all of the questions that come his way. Looks very town in D2 when he says to delay lynching Mutley and to have more discussion, manages to halt Mac (for a while, at least) and recognises that L-1 is, for Mutley at least, precarious. Only real gripe is the odd theories that he put forward (one requiring daytalk) but that's not really indicative of alignment. Plus what could be a townslip in not realising scum only had nighttalk. D3 he's been all over the place with reads but can be forgiven for it as he was earlier in the game and it is Lylo. Play in terms of questions asked and ideas put forward is much the same. I think Didi's town.

Only Xiao left, comments coming tomorrow probably.

[NicCage]

Okay so Xeg/Mac ISO
I've said most of my points against Mac already, but Xeg has some interesting points against him too
Early early game is normal stuff, null. He has a little fight with Didi over nothing, which isn't odd
for early game, but since I think the scumteam is Mac/Didi this reads to me like some early bussing/looking
like activity. Check out post #73 (someone teach me how to link please :3). The argument on Xeg's side starts
to get fairly heated.Though he doesn't have a strong point, Xeg puts a lot of pressure on Didi.
He drops that almost immediately to go after Mutley though, as does Didi. Xeg drops his case on Mutley though,
and says that he likes Mutley. To me this looks like an attempt to pick a town sheep, and it would have worked too had Xeg not been replaced.

Mac's D1 is a little sparse, jumps in with some reads, post #371, mostly stuff against Xiao and Mutley, but he votes slimer?
And he votes slimer based on post #63 with a really crummy reason. I encourage you to read it, because I see Mac jumping on to the largest bandwagon at the time for no good reason.
D2 wants to quicklynch Mutley to limit discussion, then pushes a non-reason against frog for awhile. Finally he revotes Mutley, knowing that Mutley would lynch himself.
I think he did this on purpose to limit discussion.
He then comes up D3 claiming town and appealing to fear of losing the game, which is a useless and unprovable argument. He then proceeds to push a crap case against Xiao, certain that Xiao is scum.
But if he's sure Xiao is scum, why not vote him? His reason that voting Xiao would have been a trap makes absolutely no sense, it couldn't have been a trap.
He claim Xiao is trying to frame him as a point against Xiao, and he says "scum won't hammer me because you are scum", which is a deliberate attempt to frame Xiao for his correct vote.
Notice he doesn't have any reservations against voting me, though he doesn't indicate any difference in certainty between Xiao being scum and me being scum. Why?
Because he knew my bad timing and Xiao's unvote would make me look scummy to town, and he finally had a better reason to push that he knew town might follow. No one was going to go for his case on Xiao.

This man is definitely scum.

[NicCage]

That took forever. I think I'll do Didi later tonight or tomorrow. And I guess I'll do Xiao after since you want to know why I think you're town and then frog. Those will be tomorrow.

I'm really interested in what you think Didi

[Mac]

I'll de-bunk that when I have more access, because it's all terrible.

I will say one thing though: me wrongly linking frog and Mutley shows I didn't know his alignment. If I were scum, Why would I push so hard to wrongly link frog to someone I knew would flip town?

[Mac]

@ Mod

- going to have limited access for a couple of days.

[NicCage]

It's important to note that you pushed frog with a non-reason. Your case linking frog to Mutley didn't make sense whether Mutley was town or not. The reason you did it is because you wanted to waste time during the day accomplishing nothing, so you made up a reason to push frog with.

[Mac]

It wasn't a non-reason though, was it? frog didn't want to vote Mutley until it was confirmed if slimer was hammered. I thought Mutley was scum. I thought frog was his buddy not wanting to be hammered.

And yeah, you just totally tripped over your own words. 10 posts ago I was pushing for a quicklynch to end the day fast and now I was wasting time and generating discussion?

[NicCage]

That doesn't really make sense since it wouldn't have mattered whether or not frog voted Mutley, and he said he would have if slimer hadn't been hammered.
You weren't generating real discussion, even if Mutley had been scum your reason against frog didn't make sense and you still ended the day without investigating any other player. Didi put out the opinion that Mutley shouldn't be quicklynched, you disagreed, and Didi's position got more support. So instead you pretended to scumhunt for awhile and then ended the day once you felt that enough time had passed.

I was going to do a Didi ISO but my post #481 already says it all anyway.
I'd like to point out though that Mac and Didi both keep each other in mind as scum, but Mac after saying that Didi might be scum goes after frog instead.

So Xiao ISO:
Like most, fairly normal early game, he comes under pressure for pretty much no reason and doesn't react badly.
Gets into a mainly theory based argument with Xeg, which could be a way for one or both of them to not actually scumhunt.
Then Mutley pops up and turds around for awhile. In the begining Xiao brings up the idea of replacing Mutley and his first few posts are responding to Mutley's points rather than the anti-town arguments which come later.
This leads me to believe that on Xiao's end this argument was just a mistake made out of frustration.
Xiao's responses to my case against him seemed reasonable, seemed more like trying to understand rather than being overly defensive. His posts on Mac's point against frog read the same way, once Xiao got to the bottom of the point (post #454) he didn't continue to push it.
The level of activity that Xiao has had throughout the game points to town, and unvoting Mac (even though it left me hanging out to dry) is not a scum move.
It's possible that both Mac and Xiao are scum, but I don't really see the purpose of Xiao's initial vote on Mac or his not pressing the advantage he has on me.
I would say that Xiao is conf-town from all of this.

[frog]

Xiao's ISO:
Starts off the game with an incredibly annoying format, which he nicely lays aside later, post 78 looks town as he states that scumtells are not absolute due to meta; he takes into account playstyles in his comments and reads. He's not afraid of having three scumreads, another boost to his credibility and a minor towntell. It looks like he OMGUSes MP5 but he does bring up some good points in doing so. Reacts well under pressure He looks a bit angry and antagonistic at times on D1, and he engages in a livid exchange with Mutley. He does manage to fire off some questions to FSnake, Didi, and MP5 though, so he isn't completely tunneling. We see some general thoughts on D2 and some good questions, and D3 he's been playing very towny, 474 was a good post and he unvoted, demonstrating caution. Since then he's asked for discussion and has given some good thoughts.
Xiao reads town to me.

[NicCage]

Okay, Kingpin/frog ISO:
Kingpin is hard to read really. He defends Xiao against MP5, though we all know MP5 was just making a bs case.
He comments on Mutley, doesn't want to lynch him though, which is understandable from any alignment. He argues against Xeg's point about Mutley being town, saying that it's possible that he's just scums screwing around.
And that's about it. Seems like nooby sort of play with the way he reacted to MP5's case against Xiao, but I don't really have a read on him beyond that.

frog's play has been stronger, he jumps in with his big list of reads, which at that point seemed fair and for the most part accurate.
His major play D1 was to build a case on slimer, though his reasons were fairly strong, slimer's alignment was not clear at the time. He doesn't try to vote Mutley, though he says he would if the opportunity arises to do so, so I don't think that matters
He asks a few good questions (posts 351 and 416) and reminds everyone that Mutley shouldn't be left at L-1. Then he has to spend a bunch of time arguing with Mac over why he didn't vote Mutley.
He thinks Mac and I are scum, originally me by PoE and Mac by the case that everyone has stated against Mac.
He argues with Mac over some points, says I'm scummy for sheeping, and he's been the first person up with his ISO's
I've never seen any huge town moves from frog, but he's never really had the opportunity for them with the short days and all. I'd say his level of activity doesn't make him suspect, he leans town to me.

[NicCage]

And now we wait

[Equinox]

Didi and Xiao Long have been prodded.

[Didi]

I should probably just put myself at V/LA for now, I have an important exam on friday


I'll try to make a decision after that, but as of now I'm still leaning towards Nic